The theory that lower taxes yields higher revenue has been discredited by history.
These two graphs illustrate the problem with the Bush tax-cuts. Even though GDP rose federal revenue dropped:
It should be obvious to anyone. After each Bush tax-cut, even though GDP rose, revenue dropped. However, some will deny reality because it's more soothing to deny the facts than challenge the validity of their ideology.
"Lowering taxes increases revenues:" There is no empirical evidence that the claim is true and plenty of evidence that the claim is false.
Not even Mitch McConnell makes that claim. McConnell said, there is
"No evidence whatsoever that the Bush tax cuts actually diminished revenue." He wasn't saying it increased it; he said it didn't diminish it. But even that's wrong.
When the tax-cuts were passed, the
CBO estimated that the 2001 tax-cut:
"would decrease governmental receipts by $70 billion in 2001, by $512 billion over the 2001-2006 period, and by $1.26 trillion over the 2001-2011 period";
AND:
"
The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and CBO estimate that H.R. 2 [the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003] would increase budget deficits by $60.8 billion in 2003, by $342.9 billion over the 2003-2008 period, and by $349.7 billion over the 2003-2013 period. "
The
Congressional Budget Office said:
How about the Committee for a
Responsible Federal Budget? Their budget calculator shows that the tax cuts will cost $3.28 trillion between 2011 and 2018.
How about George W. Bush's CEA chair, Greg Mankiw, who used the term
"charlatans and cranks" for people who believed that "broad-based income tax cuts would have such large supply-side effects that the tax cuts would raise tax revenue." He continued:
"I did not find such a claim credible, based on the available evidence. I never have, and I still don't."
The bottom-line is that the Bush tax-cuts cut revenue: In 2000, federal tax revenues were $2,025.46 billion, nominal GDP was $9,951.5 billion. In 2003, these amounts were $1,782.53 billion and $11,142.1 billion. In other words,
GDP rose 12% and federal revenues fell 12%.
Federal revenues eventually rose, to take out the 2000 peak in 2005 (2007 in real terms,) but this doesn't mean much. Revenues eventually catch up due to GDP growth and population growth regardless of policy. The economy grows 4-6% most years, unadjusted for inflation, so naturally the general trend of taxes is to rise about 4-6% each year. Being unable to return to a previous peak for five years, despite this built in trend strongly suggests tax cuts reduced revenue, ceteris parabus.