Trump's imaginary Golden Dome is nothing like Israel's Iron Dome. Apples and Oranges. Don't even go there. This would be more like Reagan's Star Wars concept, although the problem has become significantly more difficult with improvements in missile technology including hypersonic weapons.
At this point the Golden Dome is an initiative in its early stages and details are unclear. The Trump administration projects it can be built for $175 billion, with an initial system up and running for $25 billion. They believe the system will be operational before the end of this administration. This is craziness.
According to Axios:
Apex, a satellite bus maker, is "heavily investing in internal research and development funding for this, as are our partners," CEO Ian Cinnamon said in an inteview. (The company recently announced a $200 million Series C.)
And let's not forget the Heritage Foundation:
Golden Dome was extensively advocated for in the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, stating that SpaceX's development of Starlink proves that a space-based "overlayer" of thousands of networked satellites and interceptors is now possible. Donald Trump has also repeatedly mentioned the missile shield concept in campaign speeches during the 2024 presidential election, often to mixed reception.
The CBO has much different estimates than Trump's:
Trump’s promise Tuesday to deliver the layered, integrated system in around “two-and-a-half to three years” would require the Defense Department to field the more advanced elements of the architecture years ahead of schedule. For example, the space-based missile interceptors that he said will be part of the effort have not yet been developed. Meanwhile, hypersonic interceptors are not expected to be developed and delivered until the mid-2030s.
According to Air&Space Forces magazine:
“I don’t think [$175 billion] will be executable in three years,” Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said May 23. “I think $175 billion might be a five-year or a 10-year cost estimate. … People misspeak all the time.” Harrison argued the three-year timeline might yield a partially finished system but not a complete shield. “This will absolutely not be finished within three years,” he said. “I think we might be able to have something that they call an initial operating capability.”
Shashank Joshi, defence editor at the Economist, said while the US military would take the plan very seriously, it was unrealistic to think the system would be completed during Trump's term, and that its cost would take up a large part of the defense budget.
As we all know, Trump is not to be believed. Independent, non-partisan sources agree that the Golden Dome can be built; however, it will take up to twenty years and cost half-a-trillion dollars minimum. That's for a shield that can handle present day enemy capabilities and does not account for future technological advancement on the part of China, Russia, and North Korea.
This is pie in the sky. This initiative is dead certain to start an arms race on a massive scale and upset current geopolitical strategic agreements. If Democrats take control of the House in the next few elections, the whole thing would be up in the air, so to speak.
The idea of building a system that will keep us safe from all missiles, fired by any country or countries, all the time, is extremely appealing, but incredibly challenging. Defense contractors are certain to run into time delays, cost overruns, system coordination failures, and R&D trouble.
We're looking at twenty years and close to three-quarters of a trillion dollars.
Also, The U.S. plans to spend a significant sum on modernizing its nuclear arsenal, with estimates ranging from $1 trillion to $1.7 trillion over 30 years. This massive investment involves rebuilding each component of the nuclear triad (intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines, and bombers) and upgrading associated infrastructure and nuclear warheads.
Because Trump says "Golden Dome," and defense contractors and army brass jump on the bandwagon, does not mean there will ever be an affordable, efficient, highly effective missile defense shield. Let's keep it real, folks.
At this point the Golden Dome is an initiative in its early stages and details are unclear. The Trump administration projects it can be built for $175 billion, with an initial system up and running for $25 billion. They believe the system will be operational before the end of this administration. This is craziness.
According to Axios:
- "I think the way most people are starting to use 'Golden Dome' is synonymous with space-based missile defense. But the executive order covered every missile from every adverse area every time," she said.
- "I can hardly imagine potential adversaries just sitting still, not developing the ways to counter such a system."
Apex, a satellite bus maker, is "heavily investing in internal research and development funding for this, as are our partners," CEO Ian Cinnamon said in an inteview. (The company recently announced a $200 million Series C.)
- Cinnamon foresees different methods for different threats: intercontinental ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, fractional orbital bombardment systems.
- "There are so many pieces ... and they all need to talk," he said. "They all need to listen. They all need to be able to do that within milliseconds."
And let's not forget the Heritage Foundation:
Golden Dome was extensively advocated for in the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, stating that SpaceX's development of Starlink proves that a space-based "overlayer" of thousands of networked satellites and interceptors is now possible. Donald Trump has also repeatedly mentioned the missile shield concept in campaign speeches during the 2024 presidential election, often to mixed reception.
The CBO has much different estimates than Trump's:
- Congressional Budget Office Estimate: Potentially $831 billion over two decades, with space-based components alone estimated at $542 billion over 20 years, according to the Reuters and PBS.
Trump’s promise Tuesday to deliver the layered, integrated system in around “two-and-a-half to three years” would require the Defense Department to field the more advanced elements of the architecture years ahead of schedule. For example, the space-based missile interceptors that he said will be part of the effort have not yet been developed. Meanwhile, hypersonic interceptors are not expected to be developed and delivered until the mid-2030s.
According to Air&Space Forces magazine:
“I don’t think [$175 billion] will be executable in three years,” Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said May 23. “I think $175 billion might be a five-year or a 10-year cost estimate. … People misspeak all the time.” Harrison argued the three-year timeline might yield a partially finished system but not a complete shield. “This will absolutely not be finished within three years,” he said. “I think we might be able to have something that they call an initial operating capability.”
Shashank Joshi, defence editor at the Economist, said while the US military would take the plan very seriously, it was unrealistic to think the system would be completed during Trump's term, and that its cost would take up a large part of the defense budget.
As we all know, Trump is not to be believed. Independent, non-partisan sources agree that the Golden Dome can be built; however, it will take up to twenty years and cost half-a-trillion dollars minimum. That's for a shield that can handle present day enemy capabilities and does not account for future technological advancement on the part of China, Russia, and North Korea.
This is pie in the sky. This initiative is dead certain to start an arms race on a massive scale and upset current geopolitical strategic agreements. If Democrats take control of the House in the next few elections, the whole thing would be up in the air, so to speak.
The idea of building a system that will keep us safe from all missiles, fired by any country or countries, all the time, is extremely appealing, but incredibly challenging. Defense contractors are certain to run into time delays, cost overruns, system coordination failures, and R&D trouble.
We're looking at twenty years and close to three-quarters of a trillion dollars.
Also, The U.S. plans to spend a significant sum on modernizing its nuclear arsenal, with estimates ranging from $1 trillion to $1.7 trillion over 30 years. This massive investment involves rebuilding each component of the nuclear triad (intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines, and bombers) and upgrading associated infrastructure and nuclear warheads.
Because Trump says "Golden Dome," and defense contractors and army brass jump on the bandwagon, does not mean there will ever be an affordable, efficient, highly effective missile defense shield. Let's keep it real, folks.
