The Flawed Premise Of Polling Before The Campaign Starts

[reinoe]

This is proof that we need to nominate...

CNN/ORC

6/26 - 6/28

407 RV

12

3

6

2

Bush +7

JEB! Bush. All the other Republicans need to just get out of the race now. The polling shows that JEB! Bush has the best chance of winning the GOP nomination. This applies to the general as well as the primaries. Bernie Sanders ate up huge amounts of Hillary's lead when he got exposure including his incredible comeback in Michigan. This is why I don't put any stock in "candidate x will be stronger against Clinton". It's nonsense to me.

 

[Orly?]

lol yeah sure

 

[Hawkeye10]

This is proof that we need to nominate...

JEB! Bush. All the other Republicans need to just get out of the race now. The polling shows that JEB! Bush has the best chance of winning the GOP nomination. This applies to the general as well as the primaries. Bernie Sanders ate up huge amounts of Hillary's lead when he got exposure including his incredible comeback in Michigan. This is why I don't put any stock in "candidate x will be stronger against Clinton". It's nonsense to me.

Ya, and let's keep in mind that a lot of these losers like to claim something called "electability" as they argue that they should be placed above the winner. It is hilarious..."sure I am losing but I should win it because I am better at it and I will win". Well, if you will win because you are so good then why are you losing?

Then we get the excuses.

Too many ignorant Americans fall for this tripe, and WAY too many "journalists".


EDIT: this idiocy got JEB! something like $140 million even though he sucks at this, and the coronation of the lying bitch with no resume of accomplishments Hillary.

 

[Kobie]

Polling is like batting average. Just because someone is hitting .400 in April doesn't mean he'll hit .400 for the entire season. As the season, or campaign, winnows down, poll numbers become much more useful.

 

[Kobie]

Ya, and let's keep in mind that a lot of these losers like to claim something called "electability" as they argue that they should be placed above the winner. It is hilarious..."sure I am losing but I should win it because I am better at it and I will win". Well, if you will win because you are so good then why are you losing?

Then we get the excuses.

Too many ignorant Americans fall for this tripe, and WAY too many "journalists".


EDIT: this idiocy got JEB! something like $140 million even though he sucks at this, and the coronation of the lying bitch with no resume of accomplishments Hillary.

"Electability" is not an imaginary concept. "Electability" is basically appeal outside of the candidate's particular base, which is why your boy Trump, despite all the talk of "crossover appeal," gets trashed by Hillary in every poll while she runs even with Cruz.

 

[Hawkeye10]

"Electability" is not an imaginary concept. "Electability" is basically appeal outside of the candidate's particular base, which is why your boy Trump, despite all the talk of "crossover appeal," gets trashed by Hillary in every poll while she runs even with Cruz.

It is a guess, sometimes based upon something real and sometimes not.

 

[Kobie]

It is a guess, sometimes based upon something real and sometimes not.

That's true; George W. Bush was deemed unelectable for being too dumb (in the eyes of the voters); John Edwards was deemed electable because he was allegedly just dreamy.

It's not a hard and fast science, but it's also not all voodoo.

 

[Redress]

This is proof that we need to nominate...

JEB! Bush. All the other Republicans need to just get out of the race now. The polling shows that JEB! Bush has the best chance of winning the GOP nomination. This applies to the general as well as the primaries. Bernie Sanders ate up huge amounts of Hillary's lead when he got exposure including his incredible comeback in Michigan. This is why I don't put any stock in "candidate x will be stronger against Clinton". It's nonsense to me.

You are illustrating a lack of understanding of polling. A poll is a snapshot in time. If a poll is done once a month for example, the results will change probably each month. What your poll illustrates is what the opinions of people was, 7 months before a vote happened. It is not the poll that is flawed, but how you are trying to use it.

Electability is about much more than just head to head polling. The reason Trump is considered to have a poor electability is he has terrible favor ability ratings, with little prospect they will change(as a well known public figure, he is kinda locked in), does not excite the base, and has limited appeal outside the base. Now, so you do not get confused, this does not mean he will lose in November, only that the odds of him winning are lower for him than others. It is impossible to predict with any kind of accuracy future events, which is why we speak in terms of odds.

 

[reinoe]

You are illustrating a lack of understanding of polling. A poll is a snapshot in time. If a poll is done once a month for example, the results will change probably each month. What your poll illustrates is what the opinions of people was, 7 months before a vote happened. It is not the poll that is flawed, but how you are trying to use it.

Electability is about much more than just head to head polling. The reason Trump is considered to have a poor electability is he has terrible favor ability ratings, with little prospect they will change(as a well known public figure, he is kinda locked in), does not excite the base, and has limited appeal outside the base. Now, so you do not get confused, this does not mean he will lose in November, only that the odds of him winning are lower for him than others. It is impossible to predict with any kind of accuracy future events, which is why we speak in terms of odds.

But your premise is flawed.

Trump is motivating the base and the Dem vote is hitting record lows. Some are saying that there is also a motivation to keep him out, however it's obvious that the excitment he's generating outweighs the "not Trump" movement because he's been winning. . Furthermore many Republicans will stop hyperventilating and coalesce around him when he wins. Furthermore Trump's appeal increases in "OPEN PRIMARY" states whereas Hillary did better in closed primary states and Sanders did better in Open Primary states. Trump and Bernie Crushed it in New Hampshire for example.

Independents aren't going to go to Hillary. Trump will definitely attract some Bernie Sanders Supporters who are outraged that the Dem establishment blatantly engaged in conflict of interest to help Hillary. Hillary's negatives are also through the roof too and combine that with the dissatisfaction with the establishment right now and Trump can and will win. But most importantly Many of Trumps positions are very moderate and he's not talking up the things that alienate moderates. He's not talking up hyper religion or banning abortion or tax cuts for the 1%. And where Trump is strongest is where Hillary is particularly weak and vulnerable: Trade, handling our military affairs in the middle east, immigration.

 

[Kobie]

But your premise is flawed.

Trump is motivating the base and the Dem vote is hitting record lows. Some are saying that there is also a motivation to keep him out, however it's obvious that the excitment he's generating outweighs the "not Trump" movement because he's been winning. . Furthermore many Republicans will stop hyperventilating and coalesce around him when he wins. Furthermore Trump's appeal increases in "OPEN PRIMARY" states whereas Hillary did better in closed primary states and Sanders did better in Open Primary states. Trump and Bernie Crushed it in New Hampshire for example.. Independents aren't going to go to Hillary. Trump will definitely attract some Bernie Sanders Supporters who are outraged that the Dem establishment blatantly engaged in conflict of interest to help Hillary. Hillary's negatives are also through the roof too and combine that with the dissatisfaction with the establishment right now and Trump can and will win. But most importantly Many of Trumps positions are very moderate and he's not talking up the things that alienate moderates. He's not talking up hyper religion or banning abortion or tax cuts for the 1%. And where Trump is strongest is where Hillary is particularly weak and vulnerable: Trade, handling our military affairs in the middle east, immigration.

While your entire post is basically wrong on an almost metaphysical level, I'll pick one point ...

If you think Trump is going to pull any statistically significant portion of Bernie's supporters, you're nuts.

 

[reinoe]

While your entire post is basically wrong on an almost metaphysical level, I'll pick one point ...

If you think Trump is going to pull any statistically significant portion of Bernie's supporters, you're nuts.

There are Bernie Sanders supporters who hate our current Trade deals with a passion. On that one point is a significant overlap with Trump. Hillary is certainly not a champion of working people.

 

[shlunka]

There are Bernie Sanders supporters who hate our current Trade deals with a passion. On that one point is a significant overlap with Trump. Hillary is certainly not a champion of working people.

That's like guiding your life by Nietzschean principles for 30 years and then deciding that Lindsay Lohan is pretty much the same, so you guide your life through her songs.

 

[Redress]

But your premise is flawed.

Trump is motivating the base and the Dem vote is hitting record lows.

Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election | FiveThirtyEight

Primary turnout is not reflective on the general election.

Some are saying that there is also a motivation to keep him out, however it's obvious that the excitment he's generating outweighs the "not Trump" movement because he's been winning.

And yet he hovers at below 50 % support, within his own party...

Furthermore many Republicans will stop hyperventilating and coalesce around him when he wins.

To an extent, yes, but it is more complicated than that. Exciting the base means getting more people out to vote, and there is no evidence that Trump will get more conservatives and republicans out to vote in November, at least compared to those who won't bother because he is the candidate.

Furthermore Trump's appeal increases in "OPEN PRIMARY" states whereas Hillary did better in closed primary states and Sanders did better in Open Primary states. Trump and Bernie Crushed it in New Hampshire for example.

And we really do not know what exactly that means, but a reminder: Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election | FiveThirtyEight

Independents aren't going to go to Hillary.

Well, she will likely get more than Trump, as she is liked better than Trump by independents.

Trump will definitely attract some Bernie Sanders Supporters who are outraged that the Dem establishment blatantly engaged in conflict of interest to help Hillary.

That is spin.

Hillary's negatives are also through the roof too and combine that with the dissatisfaction with the establishment right now and Trump can and will win.

Correct, but not as through the roof as Trump's, and most democrats are happy to support her, something Trump cannot say about republicans.

But most importantly Many of Trumps positions are very moderate and he's not talking up the things that alienate moderates.

Well, no, actually his positions are not moderate. They are not conservative, they are not liberal, but they are not in any way moderate(in fact being somewhat extreme). Insane is not the same thing as moderate.

He's not talking up hyper religion or banning abortion or tax cuts for the 1%. And where Trump is strongest is where Hillary is particularly weak and vulnerable: Trade, handling our military affairs in the middle east, immigration.

So now that you have identified why the base is not terribly supportive of him, you have kinda ruined your own premise.

What you have done is spout a bunch of "but, what about this?", most of which is not true, and none of which actually address Trump's real weaknesses. Clinton has the worst favorability rating of all the candidates, except one. That is Trump. Most recent poll has a full 50 % of respondents saying they view him "very unfavorably". https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fz4kxi611b/econToplines.pdf. Trump has limited support within the party. In fact, the party faithful are working desperately to nominate any one but Trump. Cruz, who is hated by his peers in the republican party, is seen as preferable to Trump. And this gets worse as you get outside of the republican party. Trump, on pretty much every single metric used to analyze electability, fairs poorly.

 

[Hawkeye10]

[ Trump, on pretty much every single metric used to analyze electability, fairs poorly.

Trump completely rewrote the rules for the R Primary, to his advantage, and he will do the same in the general. Arguing on the basis of expired rules that Trump cant win is nonsense.