Texan Hubris and Climate Change Denial

[calamity]

Hurricane Harvey has been called a “500-year” event, Houston’s third such flooding event in as many years.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)

2014, via CNN: “The last 15 years, there has been no recorded warming. Contrary to all the theories that, that they are expounding, there should have been warming over the last 15 years. It hasn’t happened.”

So, I ask. Has anyone's opinion changed? Probably not. But, the quotes, then and now, from the usual douche bags, like the Cruzer, provided by the link below are an awesome read nonetheless.

'Whoa!': Climate Change-Denying Politicians React to Hurricane Harvey

So, the bigger question. Will Texans now begin to lose some of that Texas arrogance, accept science and learn to work with the American people instead of against them?

lol..maybe when pigs fly.

 

[calamity]

For the record:

This year saw high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, where Harvey formed. According to an analysis published in March, the Gulf stayed above 73 degrees Fahrenheit the entire winter.

At the time Harvey intensified into a Category 4 hurricane, it was over a section of the Gulf that was about 4 degrees above normal, says Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colo.

How A Warmer Climate Helped Shape Harvey : The Two-Way : NPR

 

[calamity]

And, now, to explain the rain.

From the link above.

As sea surface temperatures rise, more ocean water evaporates into the atmosphere. The relationship is exponential, says Kirtman. "For a small change in temperature, you get a huge amount of evaporation," he says.

Surface temperatures in the Gulf have been above average this summer. The air was filled with humidity. And then came Harvey. It swept up the humid air and then wrung it out over Texas like a sponge.

 

[Brochacholomigo]

And, now, to explain the rain.

From the link above.

Can't trust people to read an article before commenting?

 

[calamity]

And, finally---the flooding.

The problem is that 500-year floods are happening more often than probability predicts — especially in Houston. And, especially in Houston, prevention planning hasn’t evolved to acknowledge that a “500-year” flood isn’t really a 1-in-500 chance anymore.

...For nearly a decade — ever since Hurricane Ike narrowly missed Houston in 2008 — city and state officials and experts have been warning that Houston wasn’t even prepared for a 15-year storm....

In other words, for two years in a row, Houston saw 500-year floods and didn’t do enough to prepare for the next one. Now it’s dealing with what could be a 1,000-year flood — the sort of storm that no city could ever prepare for, but that could absolutely cripple a city that wasn’t even prepared for a much smaller and more common disaster.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning

Welcome to Texas.

 

[calamity]

Can't trust people to read an article before commenting?

lol..here? Given it's NPR? No.

Which reminds me. I forget to post the link in the post above.

 

[LowDown]

So, I ask. Has anyone's opinion changed? Probably not. But, the quotes, then and now, from the usual douche bags, like the Cruzer, provided by the link below are an awesome read nonetheless.

'Whoa!': Climate Change-Denying Politicians React to Hurricane Harvey

So, the bigger question. Will Texans now begin to lose some of that Texas arrogance, accept science and learn to work with the American people instead of against them?

lol..maybe when pigs fly.

We Texans do accept science, which is why some of us are so skeptical of AGW hype. Especially when alarmist pukes try to tie random weather events to climate change.

The long stretch of years without a major hurricane hitting the US? I suppose that's immaterial. We're not supposed to pay attention to that data, only the data alarmists think is important.

 

[JamesBY]

We Texans do accept science, which is why some of us are so skeptical of AGW hype. Especially when alarmist pukes try to tie random weather events to climate change.

The long stretch of years without a major hurricane hitting the US? I suppose that's immaterial. We're not supposed to pay attention to that data, only the data alarmists think is important.

You said you majored phys ed?

 

[KLATTU]

One event such as this neither falsifies nor confirms AGW theory.

A hurricane this strong hit Galveston in 1900. I guess all we conclude thus far is that a major hurrican ( cat 4 or 5) hits this area every 117 years.
Of course that won't stop the lw idiots from playing the science card.
I just don't think they realize how ridiculous and UNscientific they sound.

 

[Visbek]

So, I ask. Has anyone's opinion changed?

I think they're a little busy right now. Let's check back in a few months.

 

[calamity]

One event such as this neither falsifies nor confirms AGW theory.

A hurricane this strong hit Galveston in 1900. I guess all we conclude thus far is that a major hurrican ( cat 4 or 5) hits this area every 117 years.
Of course that won't stop the lw idiots from playing the science card.
I just don't think they realize how ridiculous and UNscientific they sound.

The hurricane is not due to AGW. The heavy rain and behavior of the hurricane probably is, however.

Scientists say warming makes storms, like Harvey, wetter - ABC News

Yeah, I know. "Fake News."

 

[Renae]

There were no shearing winds to rip this apart, it was in a perfect slot to intensify. Any attempts to claim this was "made worse by GLOBAL WARMING" is politics, not science. I spent near on 10 years in meteorology, 6 of which was IN Corpus Christi. I kinda know what the the **** I'm talking about.

 

[Jack Hays]

So, I ask. Has anyone's opinion changed? Probably not. But, the quotes, then and now, from the usual douche bags, like the Cruzer, provided by the link below are an awesome read nonetheless.

'Whoa!': Climate Change-Denying Politicians React to Hurricane Harvey

So, the bigger question. Will Texans now begin to lose some of that Texas arrogance, accept science and learn to work with the American people instead of against them?

lol..maybe when pigs fly.

[h=1]Why Houston Flooding Isn’t a Sign of Climate Change[/h]Water levels were 16 feet higher in the flood of 1935 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. In the context of climate change, is what we are seeing in Houston a new level of disaster which is becoming more common? The flood disaster unfolding in Houston is certainly very unusual. But so are other natural…

 

[Visbek]

There were no shearing winds to rip this apart, it was in a perfect slot to intensify. Any attempts to claim this was "made worse by GLOBAL WARMING" is politics, not science.

Yeah, not so much.

As pointed out in the thread you started: The Gulf is warmer than normal, which made the storm stronger and intensified before it hit land -- an extremely rare occurrence in that region. Higher levels of water vapor in the atmosphere also resulted in more rainfall.

Climate change most likely did not cause the hurricane, but it magnified the effects, particularly the amounts of rain now hitting Texas. The effects of climate change on these types of weather events are just starting to become apparent.

I spent near on 10 years in meteorology, 6 of which was IN Corpus Christi. I kinda know what the the **** I'm talking about.

Apparently not.

 

[longview]

Yeah, not so much.

As pointed out in the thread you started: The Gulf is warmer than normal, which made the storm stronger and intensified before it hit land -- an extremely rare occurrence in that region. Higher levels of water vapor in the atmosphere also resulted in more rainfall.

Climate change most likely did not cause the hurricane, but it magnified the effects, particularly the amounts of rain now hitting Texas. The effects of climate change on these types of weather events are just starting to become apparent.



Apparently not.

The amount of rain is not too untypical for a tropical system, the only difference here is the area covered.
Normally the stronger storms hit and keep going, weaker steering currents kept this one around.
This usually happens more with tropical storms, and have many times.
I am in Southeast Houston as I type, many low lying areas are in trouble, but the drainage system is working
as well as can be expected, since the volume is about 3 times the design specifications.

 

[Renae]

Yeah, not so much.

As pointed out in the thread you started: The Gulf is warmer than normal, which made the storm stronger and intensified before it hit land -- an extremely rare occurrence in that region. Higher levels of water vapor in the atmosphere also resulted in more rainfall.

Climate change most likely did not cause the hurricane, but it magnified the effects, particularly the amounts of rain now hitting Texas. The effects of climate change on these types of weather events are just starting to become apparent.



Apparently not.

No it's not.
Aug 2004

Aug 2010

Aug 2016

Aug 28 2017


BUT just to show prehurricane:


Notice something... I do.

 

[Visbek]

The amount of rain is not too untypical for a tropical system, the only difference here is the area covered.

The amount of rain is unprecedented for that particular region of Texas.

I am in Southeast Houston as I type, many low lying areas are in trouble, but the drainage system is working
as well as can be expected, since the volume is about 3 times the design specifications.

...which you should also take as an indication that the amount of rain is unprecedented, no?

 

[OlNate]

One event such as this neither falsifies nor confirms AGW theory.

A hurricane this strong hit Galveston in 1900. I guess all we conclude thus far is that a major hurrican ( cat 4 or 5) hits this area every 117 years.
Of course that won't stop the lw idiots from playing the science card.
I just don't think they realize how ridiculous and UNscientific they sound.

So, you're taking two consecutive points on a timeline, and saying that they establish a trend....and at the same time calling other people ridiculous and unscientific? I'm impressed.

 

[Visbek]

Notice something... I do.

Yes, I notice a lot of cherry-picking. Scientists and apparently, some meteorologists realized a few months ago that the warmer Gulf could cause a huge issue for this year's hurricane season.

https://weather.com/news/weather/ne...eat-severe-weather-tornadoes-hurricane-season

Gulf of Mexico waters are freakishly warm, which could fuel strong spring storms - Chicago Tribune

And from an article I pointed out to you yesterday (edited for brevity):

Sea surface temperatures in the region have risen about 0.5C (close to 1F) over the past few decades from roughly 30C (86F) to 30.5C (87F), which contributed to the very warm sea surface temperatures (30.5-31C, or 87-88F).... Sea surface temperatures in the area where Harvey intensified were 0.5-1C warmer than current-day average temperatures, which translates to 1-1.5C warmer than “average” temperatures a few decades ago. That means 3-5% more moisture in the atmosphere.

That large amount of moisture creates the potential for much greater rainfalls and greater flooding. The combination of coastal flooding and heavy rainfall is responsible for the devastating flooding that Houston is experiencing.

Not only are the surface waters of the Gulf of Mexico unusually warm right now, but there is a deep layer of warm water that Harvey was able to feed upon when it intensified at near record pace as it neared the coast. Human-caused warming is penetrating down into the ocean. It’s creating deeper layers of warm water in the Gulf and elsewhere.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-more-deadly​

 

[longview]

The amount of rain is unprecedented for that particular region of Texas.



...which you should also take as an indication that the amount of rain is unprecedented, no?

The amount of rain is not unprecedented, only the area of high rainfall is,
Events and rainfalls over 25 inches during tropical events are fairly common on the gulf coast.
I think the actual record is like 43 inches in Alvin, Texas.
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-t...-Alvin-still-holds-U-S-record-for-5644837.php

 

[Renae]

Yes, I notice a lot of cherry-picking. Scientists and apparently, some meteorologists realized a few months ago that the warmer Gulf could cause a huge issue for this year's hurricane season.

https://weather.com/news/weather/ne...eat-severe-weather-tornadoes-hurricane-season

Gulf of Mexico waters are freakishly warm, which could fuel strong spring storms - Chicago Tribune

And from an article I pointed out to you yesterday (edited for brevity):

Sea surface temperatures in the region have risen about 0.5C (close to 1F) over the past few decades from roughly 30C (86F) to 30.5C (87F), which contributed to the very warm sea surface temperatures (30.5-31C, or 87-88F).... Sea surface temperatures in the area where Harvey intensified were 0.5-1C warmer than current-day average temperatures, which translates to 1-1.5C warmer than “average” temperatures a few decades ago. That means 3-5% more moisture in the atmosphere.

That large amount of moisture creates the potential for much greater rainfalls and greater flooding. The combination of coastal flooding and heavy rainfall is responsible for the devastating flooding that Houston is experiencing.

Not only are the surface waters of the Gulf of Mexico unusually warm right now, but there is a deep layer of warm water that Harvey was able to feed upon when it intensified at near record pace as it neared the coast. Human-caused warming is penetrating down into the ocean. It’s creating deeper layers of warm water in the Gulf and elsewhere.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-more-deadly​

Cherry Picking? They are all Aug SST temp, late august. From various years. Man you are determined to let your political needs overwhlem your critical thinking.

 

[longview]

No it's not.

BUT just to show prehurricane:

Notice something... I do.

The gulf temperatures are always warm in August,
I remember fishing one morning when the water was blood warm in the bay.
The only odd thing here is the steering currents are weak.

 

[KLATTU]

So, you're taking two consecutive points on a timeline, and saying that they establish a trend....and at the same time calling other people ridiculous and unscientific? I'm impressed.

I think you missed the facetiousness of my post. LOL

 

[Visbek]

Cherry Picking? They are all Aug SST temp, late august. From various years. Man you are determined to let your political needs overwhlem your critical thinking.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

You're looking at surface temperatures on specific summer days, in specific years. You are ignoring averages, long-term trends, warming of the Gulf below the surface, increased water vapor in the atmosphere, warnings from months ago about the effects of warmer Gulf temperatures, and more. Sounds like cherry-picking to me. To provide a bit of proper perspective....

 

[KLATTU]

The hurricane is not due to AGW. The heavy rain and behavior of the hurricane probably is, however.

Scientists say warming makes storms, like Harvey, wetter - ABC News

Yeah, I know. "Fake News."

Oppenheimer is a notorious alarmist/warmist and also ( surprise) a liberal Democrat activist.