Texan Hubris and Climate Change Denial

[Media_Truth]

I accept the mainstream scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming. However, you cannot attribute any single weather event, no matter how extreme it is, to Anthropogenic Global Warming. It is a fools errand to do so. You can say that a warmer climate makes such events more likely, but you cannot say that the amount of rain that the Houston area is getting is due to AGW. Similarly, you cannot say that it isn't.

Yes, I agree. That said the Gulf was much warmer than usual - between 2.7 deg F and 7.2 deg F. That is very probably the reason for the intensity of the hurricane. So I think, in this case, the warmer climate makes this event much more likely.

https://www.wired.com/story/what-are-the-odds-of-a-super-storm-like-harvey

When Hayhoe and others scientists look at the storm itself, they see a hurricane that has been able to keep one foot on the gas pedal while still connected to the gas tank. Warmer water means more water vapor available to power the hurricane, and Harvey’s fuel source—the Gulf of Mexico—is unusually warm right now, thanks to a combo of slow climate change-related warming and a hot August in the gulf.

As Harvey approached the Texas coast last week, the Gulf ocean temperature rose 2.7 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit above average. “That provided a deep, warm pool of water used as fuel,” says Dalia Kirschbaum, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who studies hurricane hydrology. Harvey used this hot spot to shift from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane in roughly 48 hours.

Kind of a Climate Change Double Whammy...

 

[Jack Hays]

Yes, I agree. That said the Gulf was much warmer than usual - between 2.7 deg F and 7.2 deg F. That is very probably the reason for the intensity of the hurricane. So I think, in this case, the warmer climate makes this event much more likely.

https://www.wired.com/story/what-are-the-odds-of-a-super-storm-like-harvey

When Hayhoe and others scientists look at the storm itself, they see a hurricane that has been able to keep one foot on the gas pedal while still connected to the gas tank. Warmer water means more water vapor available to power the hurricane, and Harvey’s fuel source—the Gulf of Mexico—is unusually warm right now, thanks to a combo of slow climate change-related warming and a hot August in the gulf.

As Harvey approached the Texas coast last week, the Gulf ocean temperature rose 2.7 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit above average. “That provided a deep, warm pool of water used as fuel,” says Dalia Kirschbaum, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who studies hurricane hydrology. Harvey used this hot spot to shift from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane in roughly 48 hours.

Kind of a Climate Change Double Whammy...

Of course the temperature was above average. It's August.

 

[calamity]

Of course the temperature was above average. It's August.

...and, thee T this August was above the mean for Augusts of the past :roll:

Using satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Instrument, Kafatos and co-workers analysed how sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have varied over the last 30 years. They found that mean sea surface temperatures were over 30°C throughout August this year, with a patch of 33°C next to the state of Louisiana (figure A). Furthermore, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf reached a record 0.8°C above normal compared to previous years (figure B). Hurricane Katrina caused devastation in New Orleans and the surrounding area when it reached the Louisiana coast on 29 August.
Did warm waters fuel Hurricane Katrina? - physicsworld.com

Hard to deny that direction of that trend.

 

[ludin]

We Texans do accept science, which is why some of us are so skeptical of AGW hype. Especially when alarmist pukes try to tie random weather events to climate change.

The long stretch of years without a major hurricane hitting the US? I suppose that's immaterial. We're not supposed to pay attention to that data, only the data alarmists think is important.

Hurricanes act as an earth AC unit. They pull cooler ocean water from the bottom to the top. I do agree that we haven't seen the usual number of storms which would lead to a warmer ocean.
this is nothing more than a cycle that carries itself out over decades. We are now in a more active cycle for hurricanes do to a lull in them previous years.

once the balance is restored it will return to normal. however if you look at historical data hurricanes are the same as they were before.

 

[calamity]

Check this out, from March.

Gulf of Mexico waters are freakishly warm, which could mean explosive springtime storms

Galveston, Tex., has tied or broken an astonishing 33 record highs since Nov. 1, while neighboring Houston had its warmest winter on record. Both cities have witnessed precious few days with below-normal temperatures since late fall.

...a ribbon of toasty sea surface temperatures streamed north through the Straits of Florida supporting record-setting warmth over parts of the Florida peninsula.

Miami and Fort Lauderdale both posted their warmest winters on record. Climate Central, a nonprofit science communications firm in Princeton, N.J., found 80 percent of the winter days in Miami, Orlando and Tampa were above normal.

Imagine that. I guess when you are in a deep state of denial, you can't.

 

[Linc]

Check this out, from March.

Gulf of Mexico waters are freakishly warm, which could mean explosive springtime storms

Imagine that. I guess when you are in a deep state of denial, you can't.

I see Gov. Christie spanked Sen. Cruz on Morning Joe today for his lying about Superstorm Sandy aid. Cruz is being given 3 pinocchios out of 4 for stating that Sandy aid was 2/3 pork. I expect Cruz to have a very tough race next year with Congressman O'Rourke ...

 

[Fenton Lum]

Can't trust people to read an article before commenting?

It has been widely observed that many pre-ejaculatory climate denialist posters do not read a link before responding and pay no attention at all to science.

 

[Fenton Lum]

I see Gov. Christie spanked Sen. Cruz on Morning Joe today for his lying about Superstorm Sandy aid. Cruz is being given 3 pinocchios out of 4 for stating that Sandy aid was 2/3 pork. I expect Cruz to have a very tough race next year with Congressman O'Rourke ...

In Texas? Doubtful, he can merely talk about Jeebus a lot.

 

[Linc]

In Texas? Doubtful, he can merely talk about Jeebus a lot.

A Texas Lyceum poll in April had Cruz and O'Rourke tied at 30 with 38% undecided. Castro chose not to challenge O'Rourke while Cruz already has two primary opponents. This race has already moved from solid R to likely or lean R, depending on the firm one looks at ...

 

[VanceMack]

:lamo

Remember back when every time one of the Global Warming Protests would get cancelled because of a snowstorm leftists ued to proclaim "You cant refute global warming based on a few instances!"?

Pro AGW folks have been declaring Global Warming would cause more frwequent and more severe hurricanes. And yet...every year...fewer and fewer and fewer...

til now. NOW....and with this one storm, the AGW people are all like...



GLEEFUL that NOW they can back up the failed claims for over a decade.

 

[calamity]

It has been widely observed that many pre-ejaculatory climate denialist posters do not read a link before responding and pay no attention at all to science.

I'd say it is a well established fact that thee denialists refuse to click any link which disagrees with their distorted, misinformed worldview.

 

[calamity]

A Texas Lyceum poll in April had Cruz and O'Rourke tied at 30 with 38% undecided. Castro chose not to challenge O'Rourke while Cruz already has two primary opponents. This race has already moved from solid R to likely or lean R, depending on the firm one looks at ...

I do not see a Dem winning a statewide election in Deep Red Texas. But, ya never know. Times. They do change.

 

[calamity]

:lamo

Remember back when every time one of the Global Warming Protests would get cancelled because of a snowstorm leftists ued to proclaim "You cant refute global warming based on a few instances!"?

Pro AGW folks have been declaring Global Warming would cause more frwequent and more severe hurricanes. And yet...every year...fewer and fewer and fewer...

til now. NOW....and with this one storm, the AGW people are all like...



GLEEFUL that NOW they can back up the failed claims for over a decade.

Denying the science while a record amount of rain is falling on your head is not something to be proud of, Vance.

 

[VanceMack]

Denying the science while a record amount of rain is falling on your head is not something to be proud of, Vance.

Claiming victory because of one storm is stupid, Calamity.

 

[Visbek]

Remember back when every time one of the Global Warming Protests would get cancelled because of a snowstorm leftists ued to proclaim "You cant refute global warming based on a few instances!"?

sigh

Yes, climate change is about global conditions over longer time scales.

Yes, a cold summer day in the southwest corner of Maine is not sufficient to disprove climate change.

No, no one is saying that the existence or intensity of Harvey is proof of climate change or AGW.

No, no one is saying that the only reason that Harvey formed, and was a strong storm, is due to climate change.

Climatologists are pointing out that Harvey was a more intense storm, with more rainfall and storm surge, because of climate change.

Are we clear now?

 

[calamity]

Claiming victory because of one storm is stupid, Calamity.

A storm which matches the predictions of climate change to a T, Vance.

 

[Threegoofs]

:lamo

Remember back when every time one of the Global Warming Protests would get cancelled because of a snowstorm leftists ued to proclaim "You cant refute global warming based on a few instances!"?

Pro AGW folks have been declaring Global Warming would cause more frwequent and more severe hurricanes. And yet...every year...fewer and fewer and fewer...

VanceMack.

Lying again,

Guess when you dont have data on your side, unsupported lies and video clips are all you got.


From NOAA... who, no doubt, are in on the conspiracy.

 

[calamity]

VanceMack.

Lying again,

Guess when you dont have data on your side, unsupported lies and video clips are all you got.


From NOAA... who, no doubt, are in on the conspiracy.

And, the Gulf of Mexico in particular.

 

[VanceMack]

VanceMack.

Lying again,

Guess when you dont have data on your side, unsupported lies and video clips are all you got.


From NOAA... who, no doubt, are in on the conspiracy.

:lamo

Why does your slide data stop in 2006?

Many are claiming that the increase in storm intensity is due to warmer gulf coast waters.

[h=2]How did it make it worse?[/h] Warmer seas evaporate more quickly. Warmer air holds more water vapour. So, as temperatures rise around the world, the skies store more moisture and dump it more intensely.
[h=2]Is this speculation or science?[/h] There is a proven link – known as the Clausius-Clapeyron equation – that shows that for every half a degree celsius in warming, there is about a 3% increase in atmospheric moisture content.



Do you buy it?

 

[Threegoofs]

And, the Gulf of Mexico in particular.

Yet I suspect he will just roll on through this information, pretending he is correct without reexamining any of his assumptions.

You know. Like a religious zealot.

 

[VanceMack]

Yet I suspect he will just roll on through this information, pretending he is correct without reexamining any of his assumptions.

You know. Like a religious zealot.

You are busy googling...arent you?

:lamo

Why does THAT graph dataset stop in 2004?

 

[Linc]

I do not see a Dem winning a statewide election in Deep Red Texas. But, ya never know. Times. They do change.

Texas could have flipped last year IF Dem CDs had voted with the same turnout as GOP CDs. I don't see turnout as a problem next year for DEMs, even with it being a midterm election.

Politicians like Cruz are and should be held accountable for their actions and behaviors towards ALL natural disasters, not just those in their states ...

 

[VanceMack]

sigh

Yes, climate change is about global conditions over longer time scales.

Yes, a cold summer day in the southwest corner of Maine is not sufficient to disprove climate change.

No, no one is saying that the existence or intensity of Harvey is proof of climate change or AGW.

No, no one is saying that the only reason that Harvey formed, and was a strong storm, is due to climate change.

Climatologists are pointing out that Harvey was a more intense storm, with more rainfall and storm surge, because of climate change.

Are we clear now?

Pro AGW folks are trying to make this incident 'fit'. It doesnt.

Was the Gulf Coast water temperatures more or less severe this year? That is what has been attributed to the intensity of this storm. So...yes or no?

 

[Jack Hays]

...and, thee T this August was above the mean for Augusts of the past :roll:

Hard to deny that direction of that trend.

Your data are from August 13 years ago.

 

[Jack Hays]

Yet I suspect he will just roll on through this information, pretending he is correct without reexamining any of his assumptions.

You know. Like a religious zealot.

My assumption was that we are talking about 2017, not 2004.