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Syria's War Splits Nation into 3 Distinct Regions.....

MMC

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More than two years into Syria's civil war, the once highly-centralized authoritarian state has effectively split into three distinct parts, each boasting its own flags, security agencies and judicial system.

In each area, religious, ideological and turf power struggles are under way and battle lines tend to ebb and flow, making it impossible to predict exactly what Syria could look like once the combatants lay down their arms. But the longer the bloody conflict drags on, analysts says, the more difficult it will be to piece together a coherent Syrian state from the wreckage.



"There is no doubt that as a distinct single entity, Syria has ceased to exist," said Charles Lister, an analyst at IHS Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Center. "Considering the sheer scale of its territorial losses in some areas of the country, Syria no longer functions as a single all-encompassing unitarily-governed state."

The geographic dividing lines that have emerged over the past two years and effectively cleft the nation in three remain fluid, but the general outlines can be traced on a map.

Moreover, the opposition movement itself is far from monolithic, and there have been increasing outbursts of infighting between al-Qaida affiliated extremists and moderate rebel groups, as well as between Kurds and rebels of a radical Islamic bent. That violence holds the potential to escalate into a full-blown war among armed opposition factions.

In the north, fighter brigades have set up judicial councils known as Shariah courts that dispense their own version of justice based on Islamic law, including in some cases, executions of captured regime soldiers and supporters.

"While there are shifts in momentum on the battlefield, Bashar Assad, in our view, will never rule all of Syria again," Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, told reporters in Washington last month.

The comments appeared to leave open the possibility that while Assad has lost control over large parts of the country, he may well be able to hang on and even expand his core territory in the future.

Syria's partition into mini-states is an ominous scenario for a country that sits along the Middle East's most turbulent fault lines. Any attempt to create an official breakaway state could trigger a wave of sectarian killings and have dangerous repercussions in a region where many religious, ethnic and tribal communities have separatist aspirations.....snip~

Syria's war splits nation into 3 distinct regions

Infighting amongst the Rebels themselves is starting to take importance.....the good news is the MB is weakened and wont be as significant here. Still Syria may just divide up into 3 separate states.

As far as triggering a wave a sectarian killings.....to late. It has already spread past Syria and is now affecting most of the ME. Both sides of Sunni and Shia are already assassinating each others clerics. Yet we are supplying weapons to the rebels. Wherein the AQ types can just take what they want from the FSA. At anytime they want. What a mistake this was.
 

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Infighting amongst the Rebels themselves is starting to take importance.....the good news is the MB is weakened and wont be as significant here. Still Syria may just divide up into 3 separate states.

As far as triggering a wave a sectarian killings.....to late. It has already spread past Syria and is now affecting most of the ME. Both sides of Sunni and Shia are already assassinating each others clerics. Yet we are supplying weapons to the rebels. Wherein the AQ types can just take what they want from the FSA. At anytime they want. What a mistake this was.
It is always a mistake to provide arms to a uncontrolled situation, where we have no way of verifying who is receiving those arms, what those arms are being used for, and who might get ahold of them in the future. Year after year, decade after decade, the USA has been doing this kind of crap on nearly every continent in the world. Those arms always end up being responsible for massive bloodshed and innocent deaths, and usually end up eventually being used on our own troops.

Why in hell do politicians think that doing the same thing over and over will yield different results?? It's the absolute definition of mass insanity. :2mad:
 

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Gee, look. It's exactly what the interventionists have been warning would happen if we let Syria fester. Whaddya know?
 

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It is always a mistake to provide arms to a uncontrolled situation, where we have no way of verifying who is receiving those arms, what those arms are being used for, and who might get ahold of them in the future. Year after year, decade after decade, the USA has been doing this kind of crap on nearly every continent in the world. Those arms always end up being responsible for massive bloodshed and innocent deaths, and usually end up eventually being used on our own troops.

Why in hell do politicians think that doing the same thing over and over will yield different results?? It's the absolute definition of mass insanity. :2mad:
... because they think it adds up to some kind of advantage.
 

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Gee, look. It's exactly what the interventionists have been warning would happen if we let Syria fester. Whaddya know?
And how exactly would "interventionists" have changed this outcome? How would they have prevented the uprising from being used by the Islamists for their own purposes? How many American dead would we have by now? Too many unanswered questions lead to quagmires where nobody wins.
 

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It is always a mistake to provide arms to a uncontrolled situation, where we have no way of verifying who is receiving those arms, what those arms are being used for, and who might get ahold of them in the future. Year after year, decade after decade, the USA has been doing this kind of crap on nearly every continent in the world. Those arms always end up being responsible for massive bloodshed and innocent deaths, and usually end up eventually being used on our own troops.

Why in hell do politicians think that doing the same thing over and over will yield different results?? It's the absolute definition of mass insanity. :2mad:
Heya Dianna.
I would have to agree with you. Moreover, Syria isn't a threat to our National Security. There was no real reason to get involved in this dispute. Other than to try and give the Sunni Arabs another Country to Run.

Also due to our Politicians on both sides of the aisle.....listening to the MB and any of our Sunni Allies that like to throw out platitudes to them, which our Pols just luv to eat up with ALL going goo-goo-ga-ga. Once they start getting compliments or talked about in a good way.

Truly the people we have dealing with most overseas matters and it doesn't matter which side of the aisle, have been out-played, out-maneuvered, out-witted, and even out-foxed. Basically showing the American people they do not.....Deserve to be there, that they should have never been there in the first place. Yet we keep letting these jerkoffs talk and smile before the camera. Without making sure they have to take people on.

What really is a farce to the world is how the Media doesn't report that the Rebels are responsible for over 45K in all that Genocidal killing. That they just keep blaming Assad for the total dead.
 
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MMC

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And how exactly would "interventionists" have changed this outcome? How would they have prevented the uprising from being used by the Islamists for their own purposes? How many American dead would we have by now? Too many unanswered questions lead to quagmires where nobody wins.
Well.....to be honest. Back when the FSA was being led by others. We decided to help them with soft aid and to avoid capture. If we could have kept our noses out of the mess. Assad would have already laid waste to the FSA and any traitors that defected from his Armed Forces.

You don't really think that the Sunni Arabs are competent enough to conquer any countries on their own, in this day and age now.....do ya?
 

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It is always a mistake to provide arms to a uncontrolled situation, where we have no way of verifying who is receiving those arms, what those arms are being used for, and who might get ahold of them in the future. Year after year, decade after decade, the USA has been doing this kind of crap on nearly every continent in the world. Those arms always end up being responsible for massive bloodshed and innocent deaths, and usually end up eventually being used on our own troops.

Why in hell do politicians think that doing the same thing over and over will yield different results?? It's the absolute definition of mass insanity. :2mad:
Our politicians do this because it makes them look like good guys in the short term and in the long term it will not be their kid being sent off to war.
 

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It's eminently possible to identify groups and decide if you would like to assist and equip them. This hand waving that it's "too difficult" or "too complex" is entirely without evidence. It has been done a thousand and one times before, and this is no different. We have not significantly increased our support and assistance efforts for the simple reason that we do not want to. That is very different than not being able to do so.

On a related note I'm a strong supporter of Kurdish autonomy and I think we should be investing time and energy to try and reconcile the Syrian Kurdish groups with Ankara and guide them away from the PKK which I think is still a distinct possibility. Doing so would create a perfect vehicle for influencing events inside Syria, safeguarding oil resources, and creating a democratic enclave linked to the KRG. It also would relieve Turkey and accelerate ties of amity that have been developing between the Kurds (the KRG specifically) and Ankara.
 

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On a related note I'm a strong supporter of Kurdish autonomy and I think we should be investing time and energy to try and reconcile the Syrian Kurdish groups with Ankara and guide them away from the PKK which I think is still a distinct possibility. Doing so would create a perfect vehicle for influencing events inside Syria, safeguarding oil resources, and creating a democratic enclave linked to the KRG. It also would relieve Turkey and accelerate ties of amity that have been developing between the Kurds (the KRG specifically) and Ankara.
IIRC the PYD is affiliated with the PKK (too many acronyms?). Considering the historical animosity between the Turks and the Kurds, and the former's chauvinistic oppression of the latter, I think a lasting peace will be difficult to achieve at best.
 

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IIRC the PYD is affiliated with the PKK (too many acronyms?). Considering the historical animosity between the Turks and the Kurds, and the former's chauvinistic oppression of the latter, I think a lasting peace will be difficult to achieve at best.
I just got back from the KRG and the Syrian-Turkish-Kurdish border regions and while opinion and sentiment vary dramatically depending on what community you are in the animosity of a decade ago has completely changed. Among Iraqi Kurds the relationship with the Turks has become one of a rushed alliance born of massive commercial investment, regional political realities, and economic potential.

For Iranian Kurds the relationship has thawed somewhat due to tepid US interest in the Iranian Kurdish PJAK and the hope that making peace with Turkey will result in a more favorable situation. This line of reasoning has only gained more popularity as a result of the Turkish-PKK peace negotiations. As for Syrian Kurds there has been almost a volte face. The exchange of contacts between the PYD and Ankara is fairly overt, and while Turkey hasn't cozied up to the PYD they have allowed it to function without opposition and have coordinated with Erbil in the creation of the Kurdish National Council (KNC) that foisted a non-PKK aligned Kurdish political organization into the Kurdish regions.

Much rests upon the future of the PKK-Turkey ceasefire and peace settlement, if it holds then I think you will see one of the biggest sea-changes in the regions political alignment since... hah the Arab Spring. A Turkish alliance with Erbil, a Turkish alliance with Qamshali, it's all possible now which would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
 

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And how exactly would "interventionists" have changed this outcome?
Providing sufficient military support to one side so as to allow them achieve a decisive victory over the other would prevent this sort of stalemating and deepening of fissures along sectarian lines. If we had gotten much more heavily involved a year ago, I absolutely believe the situation in Syria would be better today. The longer we wait, the harder it will be and the more likely it becomes that intervention won't succeed. The sectarian divide will continue to grow and the violence will continue to spread and destabilize Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq. Given Obama's exceedingly cautious policy development, at this point I don't have high hopes. The window of opportunity is already small and quickly fading.

How would they have prevented the uprising from being used by the Islamists for their own purposes?
A major factor to the rise of extremist Jihadist groups is purely practical. They have been successful militarily (due in large part to the foreign support they receive), and the rebels are hungry for successes wherever and by whomever can deliver them. By providing the more moderate groups with military support so as to allow them to achieve greater military successes we will tend to eliminate this advantage.

How many American dead would we have by now?
Very few. Lots of $$ though.

Too many unanswered questions lead to quagmires where nobody wins.
A policy of non-interventionism doesn't answer any of these questions either, and prevents the US from having any ability to influence events towards our interests. Where else in life is crossing your fingers and just praying events work out in your favor preferable to being proactive?
 

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Indeed good news.....the Syrian Sunni Led MB is having a hard time becoming an influence in Syria. Course once again they start crying about being persecuted. Which they tend to ignore that part about them trying to take over others countries. Why wont they figure out that part on them always being incompetent and not having what it take to lead others. Using force didn't work. Now all are starting to figure them out. Wherever they are.....they are losing influence. They can't even talk about winning over the people. As they are always perceived as the outside entity. Even In Egypt itself.

Now is the time for all to strike and keep on taking them out. Then watch how much some of that confusion in the ME ebbs away from all of their Chaos that they create. They know they are they weak. So now they will look for any support they can get. Give them none.....and we have less problems throughout all of the ME.


Syria's Muslim Brotherhood faces uphill battle.....

For Syria's banned Muslim Brotherhood, the uprising against President Bashar Assad that erupted amid Arab Spring revolts in 2011 provided a long-sought opportunity to stage a comeback after decades spent in exile.

Thirty years earlier, the group's own violent uprising against Assad's father, the late Hafez Assad, was brutally crushed, culminating in an infamous massacre in the city of Hama that ended with the group's leadership killed, imprisoned or exiled.

Amid the chaos of the current revolt, the group quickly emerged as the best organized of Assad's political opponents, and is playing an increasingly active role on the ground by providing assistance to military brigades it supports.

The downfall of the Brotherhood in Egypt has shaken its Syrian counterpart and deepened distrust of the secretive movement by other Syrians who are suspicious of its religious agenda.

Inside Syria, the group faces an uphill battle trying to rebuild its base with the young revolutionaries of today, many of whom view its leadership as aging and out of touch after years away from the country. Moreover, the self-described moderate Islamic group faces fierce competition from better equipped hard-line Salafi fighters and al-Qaida extremists who have emerged as a major force among the ranks of the rebels.

"Despite its rich history of involvement in Syrian politics, for some, the Brotherhood continues to be viewed as a foreign entity merely representing a local branch of the Egyptian movement," said Raphael Lefevre, a visiting fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center and author of the book "Ashes of Hama: The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria."

Leaders of the Syrian Brotherhood and activists inside Syria say the group has been actively working in that direction. In addition to its pivotal role in shaping and influencing the opposition abroad, it has stepped up relief assistance to rebel-held areas inside the country and its leaders have made several trips to opposition areas in the north in an attempt to reconnect with residents in Idlib and Aleppo provinces, once considered strongholds of the group.

In February, the group launched al-Ahed, a newspaper which now distributes 10,000 copies bi-weekly in opposition territory. Sheik Hatem al-Tabshi, head of the Brotherhood's Shura Council, preaches in the city of Maarat al-Numan and is seen in videos holding meetings with fighters in the area.

Most significantly, an umbrella group of brigades known as the "Shields of the Revolution" has emerged as a military force closely affiliated with the group, although Brotherhood officials deny any formal ties. Activists, however, say the group is preparing to formally launch its military branch in the country.

Tensions within the opposition peaked in March, with critics claiming the Brotherhood orchestrated the election of Ghassan Hitto, a little-known figure, as interim prime minister for the opposition.

About a dozen members of the Coalition suspended their membership a day after Hitto was elected, prompting the Brotherhood's general leader, Mohammad Riad al-Shaqfa, to hold a rare press conference in which he denied the accusations. Since then, the Coalition has been expanded to dilute the influence of the Brotherhood and Hitto has stepped down. Qatar, a main supporter of the group, has taken a back seat in favor of Saudi Arabia in dealing with the Syrian opposition.....snip~

Syria's Muslim Brotherhood faces uphill battle
 

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I just got back from the KRG and the Syrian-Turkish-Kurdish border regions and while opinion and sentiment vary dramatically depending on what community you are in the animosity of a decade ago has completely changed. Among Iraqi Kurds the relationship with the Turks has become one of a rushed alliance born of massive commercial investment, regional political realities, and economic potential.

For Iranian Kurds the relationship has thawed somewhat due to tepid US interest in the Iranian Kurdish PJAK and the hope that making peace with Turkey will result in a more favorable situation. This line of reasoning has only gained more popularity as a result of the Turkish-PKK peace negotiations. As for Syrian Kurds there has been almost a volte face. The exchange of contacts between the PYD and Ankara is fairly overt, and while Turkey hasn't cozied up to the PYD they have allowed it to function without opposition and have coordinated with Erbil in the creation of the Kurdish National Council (KNC) that foisted a non-PKK aligned Kurdish political organization into the Kurdish regions.

Much rests upon the future of the PKK-Turkey ceasefire and peace settlement, if it holds then I think you will see one of the biggest sea-changes in the regions political alignment since... hah the Arab Spring. A Turkish alliance with Erbil, a Turkish alliance with Qamshali, it's all possible now which would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
Heya Sherman. :2wave: Keep us updated on it if you can. As this puts into perspective as to whats taking place inside Syria. Moreso than what is being touted by Rebel/Terrorist Supporters.
 

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I just got back from the KRG and the Syrian-Turkish-Kurdish border regions and while opinion and sentiment vary dramatically depending on what community you are in the animosity of a decade ago has completely changed. Among Iraqi Kurds the relationship with the Turks has become one of a rushed alliance born of massive commercial investment, regional political realities, and economic potential.

For Iranian Kurds the relationship has thawed somewhat due to tepid US interest in the Iranian Kurdish PJAK and the hope that making peace with Turkey will result in a more favorable situation. This line of reasoning has only gained more popularity as a result of the Turkish-PKK peace negotiations. As for Syrian Kurds there has been almost a volte face. The exchange of contacts between the PYD and Ankara is fairly overt, and while Turkey hasn't cozied up to the PYD they have allowed it to function without opposition and have coordinated with Erbil in the creation of the Kurdish National Council (KNC) that foisted a non-PKK aligned Kurdish political organization into the Kurdish regions.

Much rests upon the future of the PKK-Turkey ceasefire and peace settlement, if it holds then I think you will see one of the biggest sea-changes in the regions political alignment since... hah the Arab Spring. A Turkish alliance with Erbil, a Turkish alliance with Qamshali, it's all possible now which would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
Welcome Back.

Heya Sherman. :2wave: Keep us updated on it if you can. As this puts into perspective as to whats taking place inside Syria. Moreso than what is being touted by Rebel/Terrorist Supporters.
I enjoy and agree with many of Shermans posts in relation to the Syrian situation. We're on the same page in relation to many of the issues.
 

MMC

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Welcome Back.



I enjoy and agree with many of Shermans posts in relation to the Syrian situation. We're on the same page in relation to many of the issues.
Yeah.....I like his and Don Sutherlands posts on it as well. What I got on the Turks, as I wasn't specifically looking into them for now. Was what Basic Wiki had up on them.

Damascus Declaration: Opposition bloc from 2005. Twelve members were sentenced to 2.5 years in prison in 2008. Syrian journalist and activist Michel Kilo launched the declaration, after the Syrian writer and thinker Abdulrazak Eid had written its first draft. Riad Seif, another democracy activist, became the first signatory. The "five small opposition groups" signing the declaration were the Arab nationalist National Democratic Rally.

the Kurdish Democratic Alliance
the Committees of Civil Society
the Kurdish Democratic Front

Syrian Turkmen Assembly: A recently formed assembly of Syrian Turkmens which constitutes a coalition of Turkmen parties and groups in Syria. It is against the partition of Syria after the collapse of Baath regime. The common decision of Syrian Turkmen Assembly is: "Regardless of any ethnic or religious identity, a future in which everybody can be able to live commonly under the identity of Syrian is targeted in the future of Syria."

Syrian Democratic Turkmen Movement: An opposition party of Syrian Turkmens, which was constituted in Istanbul on 21 March 2012. The leader of Syrian Democratic Turkmen Movement is Ziyad Hasan.

Syrian Turkmen National Bloc: An opposition party of Syrian Turkmens, which was founded in February 2012. The chairman of the political party is Yusuf Molla.

Syrian Turkmen Brigades: An armed opposition structure of Syrian Turkmens fighting against Syrian Armed Forces. It is also the military wing of Syrian Turkmen Assembly. It is led by Colonel Muhammad Awad and Ali Basher.....snip~

Syrian opposition - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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