Sullivan: Russia planning 'extremely violent' operation to 'crush' Ukraine

[Rogue Valley]

Sullivan: Russia planning ‘extremely violent’ operation to ‘crush’ Ukraine

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an “extremely violent” invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to &#8…

thehill.com

2.21.22
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an "extremely violent" invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to "crush" the Ukrainian people. "We believe that any military operation of the size, scope and magnitude of what we believe the Russians are planning will be extremely violent. It will cost the lives of Ukrainians and Russians, civilians and military personnel alike," Sullivan said during an appearance on NBC's "Today." "But we also have intelligence to suggest that there will be an even greater form of brutality because this will not simply be some conventional war between two armies," he added. "It will be a war waged by Russia on the Ukrainian people to repress them, to crush them, to harm them." On Sunday, officials announced that joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus that were set to end this week would be extended indefinitely.

On Sunday, President Biden similarly agreed to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin "in principle" on the condition that the Russian leader not proceed with an invasion of Ukraine. Sullivan reiterated on Monday that the U.S. is prepared to respond, regardless of how diplomatic efforts pan out. "We're prepared to respond decisively if Russia moves on Ukraine and we're prepared for diplomacy to settle this peacefully, including at the highest level," Sullivan said. "So [French President Emmanuel Macron] asked President Biden yesterday if he was prepared in principle to meet with President Putin if Russia did not invade, of course President Biden said yes. But every indication we see on the ground right now in terms of the disposition of Russian forces is that they are in fact getting prepared for a major attack on Ukraine."

If Russian forces operate in Ukraine like they operate in Syria and the Central African Republic, the Ukraine invasion campaign will be brutal and bloody. Professional Russian military units such as the Airborne (VDV), Naval Infantry, and Spetsnaz will be the forces capturing crucial military, infrastructure, and government facilities. Former Russian soldiers who work under contract (kontrakniki) will do many of the bloody tasks that the professional corps will avoid. Russian military conscrips (1 year) will serve as occupation placeholders. For the war crimes, the Kremlin will utilize the Wagner Group, mercenaries who are an unrecognized Kremlin military branch comtrolled by Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner Group provides the Kremlin with plausible deniability.

In for a penny in for a dollar. Since the Western sanctions will be exceedingly severe regardless of where in Ukraine Russian forces finally stop, they may as well go for a neutering of Ukraine. This means an invasion advance capturing all Ukrainian oblasts east of the Dneiper River. This is ~45% of modern Ukraine. Russian forces will also capture the oblast/city of Odesa in the far south, assisted by Russian forces stationed in Transnistria. Russian forces will sweep down from Belarus to capture Kyiv which straddles the Dneiper River. The intent here will be to decapitate the Ukraine leadersip and government. Officials not shot to death will be bundled off to Russian gulags. Zelenskyy's dillema... when war breaks out should he stay in Kyiv or flee west to the city of L'viv?

When the shooting starts, expect Russian artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Russia to fire barrages into neighboring Ukraine. The Russian air force will attack military targets and bomb civilian targets such as city halls. There are approx. 140 Russian ships (plus an unknown number of submarines) in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These will launch missiles (much like US Tomahawk missiles) at predetermined targets, as will mobile cruise-missile batteries stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave. I believe the Kremlin will be in control of its main objectives by the 72 hour mark. The Russian military will want to make an example of Ukraine. Deaths and casualties will be very high. Probably ~5 million war refugees fleeing into Poland and the Baltic States. If the advance transpires as I have outlined above, Ukraine will lose all of her coastlines and seaports, and become an impoverished and landlocked rump state. The economic damage will be well beyond severe. Under the Geneva Conventions, Moscow is legally responsible for the safety and well-being of every Ukrainian citizen under its military occupation. The Kremlin will no doubt appoint sympathetic pro-Russia Ukrainians to government positions. Don't fall for this deception. Ukraine will legally and in all reality be a bifurcated nation partially occupied by Russian military forces.

 

[Exquisitor]

Sullivan: Russia planning ‘extremely violent’ operation to ‘crush’ Ukraine

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an “extremely violent” invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to &#8…

thehill.com

If Russian forces operate in Ukraine like they operate in Syria and the Central African Republic, the Ukraine invasion campaign will be brutal and bloody. Professional Russian military units such as the Airborne (VDV), Naval Infantry, and Spetsnaz will be the forces capturing crucial military, infrastructure, and government facilities. Former Russian soldiers who work under contract (kontrakniki) will do many of the bloody tasks that the professional corps will avoid. Russian military conscrips (1 year) will serve as occupation placeholders. For the war crimes, the Kremlin will utilize the Wagner Group, mercenaries who are an unrecognized Kremlin military branch comtrolled by Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner Group provides the Kremlin with plausible deniability.

In for a penny in for a dollar. Since the Western sanctions will be exceedingly severe regardless of where in Ukraine Russian forces finally stop, they may as well go for a neutering of Ukraine. This means an invasion advance capturing all Ukrainian oblasts east of the Dneiper River. This is ~45% of modern Ukraine. Russian forces will also capture the oblast/city of Odesa in the far south, assisted by Russian forces stationed in Transnistria. Russian forces will sweep down from Belarus to capture Kyiv which straddles the Dneiper River. The intent here will be to decapitate the Ukraine leadersip and government. Officials not shot to death will be bundled off to Russian gulags. Zelenskyy's dillema... when war breaks out should he stay in Kyiv or flee west to the city of L'viv?

When the shooting starts, expect Russian artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Russia to fire barrages into neighboring Ukraine. The Russian air force will attack military targets and bomb civilian targets such as city halls. There are approx. 140 Russian ships (plus an unknown number of submarines) in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These will launch missiles (much like US Tomahawk missiles) at predetermined targets, as will mobile cruise-missile batteries stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave. I believe the Kremlin will be in control of its main objectives by the 72 hour mark. The Russian military will want to make an example of Ukraine. Deaths and casualties will be very high. Probably ~5 million war refugees fleeing into Poland and the Baltic States. If the advance transpires as I have outlined above, Ukraine will lose all of her coastlines and seaports, and become an impoverished and landlocked rump state. The economic damage will be well beyond severe. Under the Geneva Conventions, Moscow is legally responsible for the safety and well-being of every Ukrainian citizen under its military occupation. The Kremlin will no doubt appoint sympathetic pro-Russia Ukrainians to government positions. Don't fall for this deception. Ukraine will legally and in all reality be a bifurcated nation partially occupied by Russian military forces.

Too bad we don't just take Putin's armies, go take Moscow, establish a new regime, bust up Russia into a bunch of little states.

 

[oneworld2]

Sullivan: Russia planning ‘extremely violent’ operation to ‘crush’ Ukraine

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an “extremely violent” invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to &#8…

thehill.com

If Russian forces operate in Ukraine like they operate in Syria and the Central African Republic, the Ukraine invasion campaign will be brutal and bloody. Professional Russian military units such as the Airborne (VDV), Naval Infantry, and Spetsnaz will be the forces capturing crucial military, infrastructure, and government facilities. Former Russian soldiers who work under contract (kontrakniki) will do many of the bloody tasks that the professional corps will avoid. Russian military conscrips (1 year) will serve as occupation placeholders. For the war crimes, the Kremlin will utilize the Wagner Group, mercenaries who are an unrecognized Kremlin military branch comtrolled by Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner Group provides the Kremlin with plausible deniability.

Not unlike the US use of Blackwater

In for a penny in for a dollar. Since the Western sanctions will be exceedingly severe regardless of where in Ukraine Russian forces finally stop, they may as well go for a neutering of Ukraine.

Sounds like apologetics for Russian actions to destroy Ukraine.

When the shooting starts, expect Russian artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Russia to fire barrages into neighboring Ukraine. The Russian air force will attack military targets and bomb civilian targets such as city halls. There are approx. 140 Russian ships (plus an unknown number of submarines) in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These will launch missiles (much like US Tomahawk missiles) at predetermined targets, as will mobile cruise-missile batteries stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave. I believe the Kremlin will be in control of its main objectives by the 72 hour mark. The Russian military will want to make an example of Ukraine. Deaths and casualties will be very high. Probably ~5 million war refugees fleeing into Poland and the Baltic States. If the advance transpires as I have outlined above, Ukraine will lose all of her coastlines and seaports, and become an impoverished and landlocked rump state. The economic damage will be well beyond severe. Under the Geneva Conventions, Moscow is legally responsible for the safety and well-being of every Ukrainian citizen under its military occupation. The Kremlin will no doubt appoint sympathetic pro-Russia Ukrainians to government positions. Don't fall for this deception. Ukraine will legally and in all reality be a bifurcated nation partially occupied by Russian military forces.

A Russian shock and awe.

The similarities continue unabated.

 

[oneworld2]

Too bad we don't just take Putin's armies, go take Moscow, establish a new regime, bust up Russia into a bunch of little states.

You would if you could but the fact is you can't because Russia isn't a state the US can easily bully.

What you advocate btw is illegal under international law , not that the US cares for that except when it comes to the actions of others having excluded itself from the scope of the ICJ.

 

[Exquisitor]

You would if you could but the fact is you can't because Russia isn't a state the US can easily bully.

What you advocate btw is illegal under international law , not that the US cares for that except when it comes to the actions of others having excluded itself from the scope of the ICJ.

The only problem is you would have to kill Russian troops.

How about, they start rolling out the casions and firing artillery and, in comes the US Air Force, wiping out the columns?

Then Ukraine sweeps up and wins taking Moscow and breaking her up into a map we once saw here.

 

[oneworld2]

The only problem is you would have to kill Russian troops.

How about, they start rolling out the casions and firing artillery and, in comes the US Air Force, wiping out the columns?

Then Ukraine sweeps up and wins taking Moscow and breaking her up into a map we once saw here.

How about you understand the illegality of what you advocate and the lunacy of trying to destroy a country that has around 7000 nuclear weapons ?

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

When the shooting starts, expect Russian artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Russia to fire barrages into neighboring Ukraine. The Russian air force will attack military targets and bomb civilian targets such as city halls. There are approx. 140 Russian ships (plus an unknown number of submarines) in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These will launch missiles (much like US Tomahawk missiles) at predetermined targets, as will mobile cruise-missile batteries stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave. I believe the Kremlin will be in control of its main objectives by the 72 hour mark. The Russian military will want to make an example of Ukraine. Deaths and casualties will be very high. Probably ~5 million war refugees fleeing into Poland and the Baltic States. If the advance transpires as I have outlined above, Ukraine will lose all of her coastlines and seaports, and become an impoverished and landlocked rump state. The economic damage will be well beyond severe. Under the Geneva Conventions, Moscow is legally responsible for the safety and well-being of every Ukrainian citizen under its military occupation. The Kremlin will no doubt appoint sympathetic pro-Russia Ukrainians to government positions. Don't fall for this deception. Ukraine will legally and in all reality be a bifurcated nation partially occupied by Russian military forces.

I would like to know what US (and other Western nations) components are doing in drones owned by the Russian military.
Okay, okay, I do know...it's all that lovely "FREE TRADE" we've all embraced in the last forty years.
That "free trade" was supposed to LESSEN the inevitability of war, but instead it appears to have eased the path to war significantly.

Russian drones shot down over Ukraine were full of Western parts. Can the U.S. cut them off?​

The surveillance drones contained computer chips and components made in the United States and Europe

The engine came from a German company that supplies model-airplane hobbyists.
Computer chips for navigation and wireless communication were made by U.S. suppliers.
A British company provided a motion-sensing chip.
Other parts came from Switzerland and South Korea.


This Russian drone, shot down by Ukrainian forces in 2017, was found to contain multiple Western
components when it was taken apart by a technician from Conflict Armament Research in London.
(Conflict Armament Research)

A Russian drone recovered in eastern Ukraine in 2019. Researchers found Western chips and Japanese camera parts inside.
(Conflict Armament Research)

This wireless communications component made in the United States was
found inside a Russian military drone shot down over Ukraine in 2017.
(Conflict Armament Research)

Yes, I do realize just how difficult it will be to rein in all this flow of tech to Moscow.
In the meantime we're going to have to commit to destroying as much of this tech as possible,
and disabling the function of existing ones that evade capture by any means necessary.

 

[Exquisitor]

How about you understand the illegality of what you advocate and the lunacy of trying to destroy a country that has around 7000 nuclear weapons ?

These are the contingencies the Generals regurgitate.

This is how Putin thinks.

 

[oneworld2]

These are the contingencies the Generals regurgitate.

This is how Putin thinks.

My stance in an antiwar one, you will never convince me that there is no diplomatic way out of this mess. There is nearly always a way out and I prefer dialogue over combat.

 

[joluoto]

Sullivan: Russia planning ‘extremely violent’ operation to ‘crush’ Ukraine

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an “extremely violent” invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to &#8…

thehill.com

If Russian forces operate in Ukraine like they operate in Syria and the Central African Republic, the Ukraine invasion campaign will be brutal and bloody. Professional Russian military units such as the Airborne (VDV), Naval Infantry, and Spetsnaz will be the forces capturing crucial military, infrastructure, and government facilities. Former Russian soldiers who work under contract (kontrakniki) will do many of the bloody tasks that the professional corps will avoid. Russian military conscrips (1 year) will serve as occupation placeholders. For the war crimes, the Kremlin will utilize the Wagner Group, mercenaries who are an unrecognized Kremlin military branch comtrolled by Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner Group provides the Kremlin with plausible deniability.

In for a penny in for a dollar. Since the Western sanctions will be exceedingly severe regardless of where in Ukraine Russian forces finally stop, they may as well go for a neutering of Ukraine. This means an invasion advance capturing all Ukrainian oblasts east of the Dneiper River. This is ~45% of modern Ukraine. Russian forces will also capture the oblast/city of Odesa in the far south, assisted by Russian forces stationed in Transnistria. Russian forces will sweep down from Belarus to capture Kyiv which straddles the Dneiper River. The intent here will be to decapitate the Ukraine leadersip and government. Officials not shot to death will be bundled off to Russian gulags. Zelenskyy's dillema... when war breaks out should he stay in Kyiv or flee west to the city of L'viv?

When the shooting starts, expect Russian artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Russia to fire barrages into neighboring Ukraine. The Russian air force will attack military targets and bomb civilian targets such as city halls. There are approx. 140 Russian ships (plus an unknown number of submarines) in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These will launch missiles (much like US Tomahawk missiles) at predetermined targets, as will mobile cruise-missile batteries stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave. I believe the Kremlin will be in control of its main objectives by the 72 hour mark. The Russian military will want to make an example of Ukraine. Deaths and casualties will be very high. Probably ~5 million war refugees fleeing into Poland and the Baltic States. If the advance transpires as I have outlined above, Ukraine will lose all of her coastlines and seaports, and become an impoverished and landlocked rump state. The economic damage will be well beyond severe. Under the Geneva Conventions, Moscow is legally responsible for the safety and well-being of every Ukrainian citizen under its military occupation. The Kremlin will no doubt appoint sympathetic pro-Russia Ukrainians to government positions. Don't fall for this deception. Ukraine will legally and in all reality be a bifurcated nation partially occupied by Russian military forces.

Ukraine is going to fight for every inch of land. The Russians don't get the luxury to take half and walk, they'd have to fight all the way to the Polish border.

 

[NewfieMom]

I am glad you posted what you did, @Rogue Valley. It is unusual for me to write anything without reading all the other posts in a thread, but I came on-line looking for a place to write about what is on my mind and then saw your opening post. That is what was on my mind.

I am burning up with rage at Vladimir Putin. I have not felt such rage in a long time. It is personal. I feel he wants to punish Ukraine for not making this invasion and subjugation easy for him, for involving NATO and the United States, for not being willing to submit to being another Soviet State in the USSR again. I hate the man. How dare he harm innocent people because he has been shown to be an impotent leader who cannot easily thwart the West? The Ukrainian people have to pay because he has been shown to be a loser.

My screen keeps flickering as others post. I want to write more about all the fears I have heard voiced by people like Michael McFaul, former US Ambassador to Russia. He said he fears it will be a lot worse than has been described when Russia actually takes over Ukraine. Putin is a barbarian. Camps; assassinations; torture. Every kind of human rights abuse. He is a villain and no one will be able to stop that devil.

 

[RetiredUSN]

Sullivan: Russia planning ‘extremely violent’ operation to ‘crush’ Ukraine

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an “extremely violent” invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to &#8…

thehill.com

If Russian forces operate in Ukraine like they operate in Syria and the Central African Republic, the Ukraine invasion campaign will be brutal and bloody. Professional Russian military units such as the Airborne (VDV), Naval Infantry, and Spetsnaz will be the forces capturing crucial military, infrastructure, and government facilities. Former Russian soldiers who work under contract (kontrakniki) will do many of the bloody tasks that the professional corps will avoid. Russian military conscrips (1 year) will serve as occupation placeholders. For the war crimes, the Kremlin will utilize the Wagner Group, mercenaries who are an unrecognized Kremlin military branch comtrolled by Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner Group provides the Kremlin with plausible deniability.

In for a penny in for a dollar. Since the Western sanctions will be exceedingly severe regardless of where in Ukraine Russian forces finally stop, they may as well go for a neutering of Ukraine. This means an invasion advance capturing all Ukrainian oblasts east of the Dneiper River. This is ~45% of modern Ukraine. Russian forces will also capture the oblast/city of Odesa in the far south, assisted by Russian forces stationed in Transnistria. Russian forces will sweep down from Belarus to capture Kyiv which straddles the Dneiper River. The intent here will be to decapitate the Ukraine leadersip and government. Officials not shot to death will be bundled off to Russian gulags. Zelenskyy's dillema... when war breaks out should he stay in Kyiv or flee west to the city of L'viv?

When the shooting starts, expect Russian artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Russia to fire barrages into neighboring Ukraine. The Russian air force will attack military targets and bomb civilian targets such as city halls. There are approx. 140 Russian ships (plus an unknown number of submarines) in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These will launch missiles (much like US Tomahawk missiles) at predetermined targets, as will mobile cruise-missile batteries stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave. I believe the Kremlin will be in control of its main objectives by the 72 hour mark. The Russian military will want to make an example of Ukraine. Deaths and casualties will be very high. Probably ~5 million war refugees fleeing into Poland and the Baltic States. If the advance transpires as I have outlined above, Ukraine will lose all of her coastlines and seaports, and become an impoverished and landlocked rump state. The economic damage will be well beyond severe. Under the Geneva Conventions, Moscow is legally responsible for the safety and well-being of every Ukrainian citizen under its military occupation. The Kremlin will no doubt appoint sympathetic pro-Russia Ukrainians to government positions. Don't fall for this deception. Ukraine will legally and in all reality be a bifurcated nation partially occupied by Russian military forces.

You're really worked up over this Russia thing I see.

 

[NewfieMom]

You're really worked up over this Russia thing I see.

What was the clue?

 

[j brown's body]

My stance in an antiwar one, you will never convince me that there is no diplomatic way out of this mess. There is nearly always a way out and I prefer dialogue over combat.

How would you placate the empire builder?