Putin = War Criminal
- Apr 18, 2013
- Reaction score
- Political Leaning
Sullivan: Russia planning ‘extremely violent’ operation to ‘crush’ Ukraine
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an “extremely violent” invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to …
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. believes Russia is planning an "extremely violent" invasion of Ukraine, saying Moscow will seek to "crush" the Ukrainian people. "We believe that any military operation of the size, scope and magnitude of what we believe the Russians are planning will be extremely violent. It will cost the lives of Ukrainians and Russians, civilians and military personnel alike," Sullivan said during an appearance on NBC's "Today." "But we also have intelligence to suggest that there will be an even greater form of brutality because this will not simply be some conventional war between two armies," he added. "It will be a war waged by Russia on the Ukrainian people to repress them, to crush them, to harm them." On Sunday, officials announced that joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus that were set to end this week would be extended indefinitely.
On Sunday, President Biden similarly agreed to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin "in principle" on the condition that the Russian leader not proceed with an invasion of Ukraine. Sullivan reiterated on Monday that the U.S. is prepared to respond, regardless of how diplomatic efforts pan out. "We're prepared to respond decisively if Russia moves on Ukraine and we're prepared for diplomacy to settle this peacefully, including at the highest level," Sullivan said. "So [French President Emmanuel Macron] asked President Biden yesterday if he was prepared in principle to meet with President Putin if Russia did not invade, of course President Biden said yes. But every indication we see on the ground right now in terms of the disposition of Russian forces is that they are in fact getting prepared for a major attack on Ukraine."
If Russian forces operate in Ukraine like they operate in Syria and the Central African Republic, the Ukraine invasion campaign will be brutal and bloody. Professional Russian military units such as the Airborne (VDV), Naval Infantry, and Spetsnaz will be the forces capturing crucial military, infrastructure, and government facilities. Former Russian soldiers who work under contract (kontrakniki) will do many of the bloody tasks that the professional corps will avoid. Russian military conscrips (1 year) will serve as occupation placeholders. For the war crimes, the Kremlin will utilize the Wagner Group, mercenaries who are an unrecognized Kremlin military branch comtrolled by Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner Group provides the Kremlin with plausible deniability.
In for a penny in for a dollar. Since the Western sanctions will be exceedingly severe regardless of where in Ukraine Russian forces finally stop, they may as well go for a neutering of Ukraine. This means an invasion advance capturing all Ukrainian oblasts east of the Dneiper River. This is ~45% of modern Ukraine. Russian forces will also capture the oblast/city of Odesa in the far south, assisted by Russian forces stationed in Transnistria. Russian forces will sweep down from Belarus to capture Kyiv which straddles the Dneiper River. The intent here will be to decapitate the Ukraine leadersip and government. Officials not shot to death will be bundled off to Russian gulags. Zelenskyy's dillema... when war breaks out should he stay in Kyiv or flee west to the city of L'viv?
When the shooting starts, expect Russian artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Russia to fire barrages into neighboring Ukraine. The Russian air force will attack military targets and bomb civilian targets such as city halls. There are approx. 140 Russian ships (plus an unknown number of submarines) in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These will launch missiles (much like US Tomahawk missiles) at predetermined targets, as will mobile cruise-missile batteries stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave. I believe the Kremlin will be in control of its main objectives by the 72 hour mark. The Russian military will want to make an example of Ukraine. Deaths and casualties will be very high. Probably ~5 million war refugees fleeing into Poland and the Baltic States. If the advance transpires as I have outlined above, Ukraine will lose all of her coastlines and seaports, and become an impoverished and landlocked rump state. The economic damage will be well beyond severe. Under the Geneva Conventions, Moscow is legally responsible for the safety and well-being of every Ukrainian citizen under its military occupation. The Kremlin will no doubt appoint sympathetic pro-Russia Ukrainians to government positions. Don't fall for this deception. Ukraine will legally and in all reality be a bifurcated nation partially occupied by Russian military forces.