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Obviously I don't have the resources to verify this. But it's in the ballpark of what I'd expect.
A recent report by Yaakov Garb of Ben-Gurion University presents an data-driven analysis of the new “aid distribution” compounds in Gaza. Through meticulous spatial mapping, the report argues these facilities are not the humanitarian breakthrough they are claimed to be, but rather instruments of military strategy that defy international law. While the legal violations are stark, a deeper look at the population figures cited within the report reveals a demographic horror story that has, until now, remained buried in the rubble: a population gap of nearly 400,000 people.
These two themes — the perversion of aid and the decimation of a population — are inextricably linked. They paint a picture not of a relief effort, but of a strategy that advances military objectives while creating a façade of humanitarianism to placate international observers3.
Part I: The Architecture of control, not compassion
IHL is not a set of polite suggestions; it is a body of binding obligations. As the occupying power, Israel has a duty under the 4th Geneva convention to ensure and facilitate the provision of food and medical supplies to the civilian population. The system described in the Garb report makes a mockery of this duty.
Instead of facilitating the work of experienced, neutral humanitarian agencies, Israel has crippled them in favor of a securitized alternative. This new model presents several grave violations:
This entire setup is described as the “inverse of well accepted and tested principles of food distribution”. It is a legal and moral charade, using the specter of aid to advance tactical goals.
- A Rejection of Neutrality: Aid is being distributed from fortified compounds operated by private American security companies staffed with combat veterans, all under the protection of the Israeli army. This arrangement obliterates the core humanitarian principles of neutrality and independence, which are essential for ensuring aid is not used as a tool of war.
- The Endangerment of Civilians: The compounds are located within Israeli-declared “buffer zones” where civilian entry is formally barred and liable to attack. In a cruel paradox, Palestinians must risk their lives by entering a prohibited military zone to receive life-sustaining aid.
- A Blueprint for Violence: The internal design of these compounds is a masterclass in military crowd control, not civilian care. The report identifies a “fatal funnel” layout — a single entry and exit path with no cover, designed to maximize surveillance and control for armed guards. This layout, devoid of shade, water, or toilets, is documented to induce panic and create the very chaos that can be used to justify a violent response. This is not a system designed to help; it is a system designed to control, and if necessary, to harm.
Part II: The unspoken number: Gaza’s Missing 377,000
As damning as the legal analysis is, the population data contained within the report’s maps points to a far greater catastrophe. Before the conflict, the population of the Gaza Strip was approximately 2.227 million. The Garb report includes maps displaying IDF estimates for the populations remaining in what are considered the three primary enclaves.
The numbers are as follows:
- Gaza City: 1 million
- Mawasi: 0.5 million
- Central: 0.35 million
The total of these official estimates is 1.85 million people.
Simple arithmetic reveals a horrifying gap: 2.227 million minus 1.85 million leaves 377,000 people unaccounted for.
This number is more than six times the casualty figures commonly discussed in media reports. While some of these individuals may be displaced in the rubble-strewn landscapes outside the main enclaves, the sheer scale of this discrepancy, derived from the occupying power’s own population assessments, is staggering. It suggests a demographic catastrophe — whether from direct casualties, starvation, or disease — far exceeding what the world has been led to believe.