Senate polling update 10/13 - Good news for both parties

[danarhea]

For the Democrats:

1) Ohio - Dewine is toast, with his Democratic opponent now holding a double digit lead in that state.

2) Pennsylvania - Santorum is toast, again, his Democratic opponent has a double digit lead.

3) Missouri - McCaskill is pulling away from Talent. This state is almost in the bag for Democrats.

4) Rhode Island - The last Liberal Republican is about to bite the dust. Whitehouse has an insurmountable lead over Chaffee.

5) New Jersey - Menendez is now leading his Republican opponent. Democrats should hang on to the this state, but the GOP was doomed to have a hard time anyways, due to the heavily Democratic leanings of New Jersey.

For Republicans:

1) Virginia - Allen has finally shut his mouth, and is now increasing his lead over Webb. This state will definitely stay Republican.

2) Montana - Burns, likewise, is keeping his mouth shut, and is closing the gap. The GOP has a chance to retain this seat.

3) Tennessee - This is the state the Dems were counting on as their magical 6th man to retake the Senate. Ford's lead was tenuous, at best, and as an African American, he needed to stay ahead by more than 2 percentage points, since history has shown that black candidates never win close races. Corker has eliminated Ford's lead, and now the state is listed as a dead heat, which is in Corker's favor. Republicans will retain this seat, and thus, retain the Senate.

4) Lieberman beats Lamont easily. His lead is double digits. Although Democrat, he frequently votes with the GOP.

From the site "Electoral Vote".

 

[southern_liberal]

For the Democrats:

1) Ohio - Dewine is toast, with his Democratic opponent now holding a double digit lead in that state.

2) Pennsylvania - Santorum is toast, again, his Democratic opponent has a double digit lead.

3) Missouri - McCaskill is pulling away from Talent. This state is almost in the bag for Democrats.

4) Rhode Island - The last Liberal Republican is about to bite the dust. Whitehouse has an insurmountable lead over Chaffee.

5) New Jersey - Menendez is now leading his Republican opponent. Democrats should hang on to the this state, but the GOP was doomed to have a hard time anyways, due to the heavily Democratic leanings of New Jersey.

For Republicans:

1) Virginia - Allen has finally shut his mouth, and is now increasing his lead over Webb. This state will definitely stay Republican.

2) Montana - Burns, likewise, is keeping his mouth shut, and is closing the gap. The GOP has a chance to retain this seat.

3) Tennessee - This is the state the Dems were counting on as their magical 6th man to retake the Senate. Ford's lead was tenuous, at best, and as an African American, he needed to stay ahead by more than 2 percentage points, since history has shown that black candidates never win close races. Corker has eliminated Ford's lead, and now the state is listed as a dead heat, which is in Corker's favor. Republicans will retain this seat, and thus, retain the Senate.

4) Lieberman beats Lamont easily. His lead is double digits. Although Democrat, he frequently votes with the GOP.

From the site "Electoral Vote".

I have maintained all along the Reps would never get New Jersey; especially as polorized as American politics are now days.

I wouldn't count out Montana at all. If Tester keep hammering away, This seat will be the Dems. This race is far from Burns to win; it's Testers to loose.

Tennesee i totally agree with you on. But with Corkers campaign having a recent meltdown, I can see Ford pulling this one off. Of course, This one like Missouri is going to go down to the wire (though I think McCaskill will pull it off in Missouri because of the ballot questions.)

 

[Navy Pride]

For the Democrats:

1) Ohio - Dewine is toast, with his Democratic opponent now holding a double digit lead in that state.

2) Pennsylvania - Santorum is toast, again, his Democratic opponent has a double digit lead.

3) Missouri - McCaskill is pulling away from Talent. This state is almost in the bag for Democrats.

4) Rhode Island - The last Liberal Republican is about to bite the dust. Whitehouse has an insurmountable lead over Chaffee.

5) New Jersey - Menendez is now leading his Republican opponent. Democrats should hang on to the this state, but the GOP was doomed to have a hard time anyways, due to the heavily Democratic leanings of New Jersey.

For Republicans:

1) Virginia - Allen has finally shut his mouth, and is now increasing his lead over Webb. This state will definitely stay Republican.

2) Montana - Burns, likewise, is keeping his mouth shut, and is closing the gap. The GOP has a chance to retain this seat.

3) Tennessee - This is the state the Dems were counting on as their magical 6th man to retake the Senate. Ford's lead was tenuous, at best, and as an African American, he needed to stay ahead by more than 2 percentage points, since history has shown that black candidates never win close races. Corker has eliminated Ford's lead, and now the state is listed as a dead heat, which is in Corker's favor. Republicans will retain this seat, and thus, retain the Senate.

4) Lieberman beats Lamont easily. His lead is double digits. Although Democrat, he frequently votes with the GOP.

From the site "Electoral Vote".

I saw a Dewine and his opponent debate on Meet the Press on Sunday and they were tied in the polls then and McCain has been campaigning for Dewine since then..............I think that is a safe seat for Republicans........

Even if things fall as you say the Republicans hold on to the senate by a few votes.......

 

[Navy Pride]

I have maintained all along the Reps would never get New Jersey; especially as polorized as American politics are now days.

I wouldn't count out Montana at all. If Tester keep hammering away, This seat will be the Dems. This race is far from Burns to win; it's Testers to loose.

Tennesee i totally agree with you on. But with Corkers campaign having a recent meltdown, I can see Ford pulling this one off. Of course, This one like Missouri is going to go down to the wire (though I think McCaskill will pull it off in Missouri because of the ballot questions.)

Tenn. will never elect a Black Senator..........You can take that to the bank.......

 

[Kandahar]

Montana - "Closing the gap" is relative. Tester still holds a 4-8% lead over Burns, and should easily win.

Tennessee - I agree that black candidates don't usually win in close races, because there are a handful of voters who won't tell a pollster that they won't vote for a black candidate. However, there are also a handful of GOP voters who won't show up at the polls at all, despite giving their opinion to pollsters. This race is close enough that I could see it swinging either way.

 

[Kandahar]

I saw a Dewine and his opponent debate on Meet the Press on Sunday and they were tied in the polls then and McCain has been campaigning for Dewine since then..............I think that is a safe seat for Republicans........

"Safe seat"? They'll be extremely lucky if they hold onto it at all. If anything Ohio is a "safe seat" for the Democrats.

They are not tied in the polls; Sherrod Brown has a huge lead.

Even if things fall as you say the Republicans hold on to the senate by a few votes.......

You're probably right about this. I see the Democrats picking up PA, MT, OH, RI for sure. That will make the Senate 51-49. The only way I think that they can win the Senate is if they run the table and eke out victories in MO and TN (and hold NJ). Or, alternatively, they could win VA (although that is less likely).

 

[danarhea]

Tenn. will never elect a Black Senator..........You can take that to the bank.......

Actually, I would disagree with you on this one. After all, Tennessee did elect Al Gore. However, with the poll numbers being as they are, I expect that Corker will pull out a narrow victory there, somewhere between 2 and 5 points.

As far as Ohio goes, Dewine is now behind by double digits. If the GOP pulls this one out, it will be a miracle.

 

[southern_liberal]

I saw a Dewine and his opponent debate on Meet the Press on Sunday and they were tied in the polls then and McCain has been campaigning for Dewine since then..............I think that is a safe seat for Republicans........

Even if things fall as you say the Republicans hold on to the senate by a few votes.......

Navy, you said the same thing about Santorum about 6 weeks ago, and now we all know Santorum needs to start cleaning out his desk, and so does Dewine.

You are very loyal republican, but still dude, it's over for Dewine. And if the Reps loose Tenneesee, We will have majority leader Reid running the senate.

 

[southern_liberal]

Tenn. will never elect a Black Senator..........You can take that to the bank.......

I hope you have overdraft protection.

There were people who said Black people would never vote in Tennessee, but I guess we southerners know Tennessee better than someone from central Washington who probably only visited Tenneesee to go to Graceland.

Dude, You need to get out more, Trygoing into Seattle some and see that the world is far different than your small bubble you live in, you really need to expand your thinking. The south has made monumental strides in the past generation. No, Tenneesee isn't a racially harmonious place; but I wouldn't be to quick to drive through rural washington state either. What i do know is people in Tenn. are listening to Ford (see the polls), and though you may not be aware of this, not all southerners are toothless bigots; many of us are capable of seeing a person first and race second (or third, or fourth or--get this(GASP)--not at all!!)

In other words, watch the generalizations, or back them up.

 

[aquapub]

It is simply staggering to me how many outrageous contradictions exist in the arguments Democrats are pinning their election hopes on.

-After 15 years of failed diplomacy, removing a genocidal terror-sponsor from Iraq was "rushing to war," but waiting to see if diplomacy works in North Korea was a blunder.

-It is ok for Nancy Pelosi and her fellow Democrats to reward a Congressman who has sex with a page by voting him into a prominent chairmanship, but Dennis Hastert should resign for Mr. Foley writing dirty emails.

-It was fine for Democrats to give North Korea nuclear technology and other bribes in 1994 while they developed their weapons, but we are only at risk because President Bush called Kim Jong Il "evil."

-Bill Clinton's 8-year non-response to Al Queda is understandable, but President Bush's inability to clean up their messes in eight months is unacceptable.

It's miraculous that such utterly idiotic hypocrites could even stand a chance in November.

 

[Navy Pride]

Montana - "Closing the gap" is relative. Tester still holds a 4-8% lead over Burns, and should easily win.

Tennessee - I agree that black candidates don't usually win in close races, because there are a handful of voters who won't tell a pollster that they won't vote for a black candidate. However, there are also a handful of GOP voters who won't show up at the polls at all, despite giving their opinion to pollsters. This race is close enough that I could see it swinging either way.

I would say there are more the a handful.........Has there ever been a black man elected to the Senate from the south from either party? I think not and it won't happen in 2006.............

 

[Navy Pride]

I hope you have overdraft protection.

There were people who said Black people would never vote in Tennessee, but I guess we southerners know Tennessee better than someone from central Washington who probably only visited Tenneesee to go to Graceland.

Dude, You need to get out more, Trygoing into Seattle some and see that the world is far different than your small bubble you live in, you really need to expand your thinking. The south has made monumental strides in the past generation. No, Tenneesee isn't a racially harmonious place; but I wouldn't be to quick to drive through rural washington state either. What i do know is people in Tenn. are listening to Ford (see the polls), and though you may not be aware of this, not all southerners are toothless bigots; many of us are capable of seeing a person first and race second (or third, or fourth or--get this(GASP)--not at all!!)

In other words, watch the generalizations, or back them up.

Dude in the history of this country how about naming me one African American from the South who was elected to the Senate?

Your suppose to be from the south and you have no clue what goes on there.......

 

[Kandahar]

I would say there are more the a handful.........Has there ever been a black man elected to the Senate from the south from either party? I think not and it won't happen in 2006.............

There were a couple black senators from the South during Reconstruction (when ex-slaves outnumbered whites). But you're right that there haven't been any for a long time.

Still, that doesn't mean that it can't happen. Rules of politics ("There has never been X") are only true until they aren't. Harold Ford has a decent chance at bucking the trend, although I'd say his odds are only 50-50 at best.

 

[Navy Pride]

It is simply staggering to me how many outrageous contradictions exist in the arguments Democrats are pinning their election hopes on.

-After 15 years of failed diplomacy, removing a genocidal terror-sponsor from Iraq was "rushing to war," but waiting to see if diplomacy works in North Korea was a blunder.

-It is ok for Nancy Pelosi and her fellow Democrats to reward a Congressman who has sex with a page by voting him into a prominent chairmanship, but Dennis Hastert should resign for Mr. Foley writing dirty emails.

-It was fine for Democrats to give North Korea nuclear technology and other bribes in 1994 while they developed their weapons, but we are only at risk because President Bush called Kim Jong Il "evil."

-Bill Clinton's 8-year non-response to Al Queda is understandable, but President Bush's inability to clean up their messes in eight months is unacceptable.

It's miraculous that such utterly idiotic hypocrites could even stand a chance in November.

The only hope for the democrats to take back the congress is for disgruntled moderates and conservatives to stay home......That is what the democrats and Liberals said would happen in 2004 and we all know how that came out.......

They are saying the same thing about 2006 and it won't happen........Moderates and Conservatives may not be happy with the way things are going but they know that it would be 10 times worse with the tax and spend democrats............

As far as these skewed liberal media polls go the people polled are heavily weighted to dems............I have many Conservative and Republican friends and none of us have ever been polled...........Can you imagine that?

Its just like the phoney exit polls the liberal media put out early in the 2004 election showing Kerry a winner hoping that Republicans would stay home.......Well 61,000,000 of them voted......

 

[Navy Pride]

duplicate post........not sure how that happened...My apology....

 

[Navy Pride]

There were a couple black senators from the South during Reconstruction (when ex-slaves outnumbered whites). But you're right that there haven't been any for a long time.

Still, that doesn't mean that it can't happen. Rules of politics ("There has never been X") are only true until they aren't. Harold Ford has a decent chance at bucking the trend, although I'd say his odds are only 50-50 at best.

If I was a betting man I would bet my money on Corker...........I think you will be very surprised by how much he wins by......

I am really surprised that Southern Democrat does not know this.....Its probably wishful thinking on his part...........

You guys better stick to the HOR......You have a much better chance there.......

 

[Kandahar]

If I was a betting man I would bet my money on Corker...........I think you will be very surprised by how much he wins by......

You CAN be a betting man on Corker, if you want. Go to www.intrade.com and buy a $100 "Corker wins" contract. They're selling for about $46 right now.

I am really surprised that Southern Democrat does not know this.....Its probably wishful thinking on his part...........

The polls (and markets) show a very tight race in TN, with Harold Ford ahead but within the margin of error. If I had to guess, I would agree with you that Corker still has the edge. But a Ford victory is hardly out of the question.

You guys better stick to the HOR......You have a much better chance there.......

I'm not expecting the Democrats to win the Senate, and I'm not even holding my breath on the HoR. The Dems have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory before.

 

[Navy Pride]

You CAN be a betting man on Corker, if you want. Go to www.intrade.com and buy a $100 "Corker wins" contract. They're selling for about $46 right now.



The polls (and markets) show a very tight race in TN, with Harold Ford ahead but within the margin of error. If I had to guess, I would agree with you that Corker still has the edge. But a Ford victory is hardly out of the question.



I'm not expecting the Democrats to win the Senate, and I'm not even holding my breath on the HoR. The Dems have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory before.

Well if they are hoping for moderates and Conservatives to stay home becasue they are disgruntled with the Bush admin I wouldn't count on that because all we have to do is see who will be the leaders in the HOR and the senate would be and know matter how we are pissed at Bush for his Fiscal policy we can't let that happen......

 

[Navy Pride]

You CAN be a betting man on Corker, if you want. Go to www.intrade.com and buy a $100 "Corker wins" contract. They're selling for about $46 right now.

I told you I am not a betting man but I am pretty confident about this so I will bet you that Corker wins.......If he doesn't I will wear the avatar of your choice for a week and if he wins you will wear one of my choice.....

 

[Kandahar]

I told you I am not a betting man but I am pretty confident about this so I will bet you that Corker wins.......If he doesn't I will wear the avatar of your choice for a week and if he wins you will wear one of my choice.....

Umm no
Did you miss the part where I *agreed* with you that Corker has the edge?

 

[Navy Pride]

Umm no
Did you miss the part where I *agreed* with you that Corker has the edge?

Well you said it close..........I say Corker will win easily........I guess you don't want to take my offer........

 

[Kandahar]

Well you said it close..........I say Corker will win easily........I guess you don't want to take my offer........

Meh, I'd suggest a spread of 5%, but I doubt you'd take that offer. Besides, I'd give you a cool avatar like Thomas Jefferson or Ayn Rand or JFK, whereas you would stick me with someone like Rush Limbaugh. Hardly equitable.

 

[RightinNYC]

That site doesn't do a very good job of comparing polls and trends. It predicts that the Dems will pick up 6 seats in the Senate and 22 in the house...I very very very much doubt that.

3) Missouri - McCaskill is pulling away from Talent. This state is almost in the bag for Democrats.

According to Rasmussen, McCaskill is 1% ahead of Talent, 44-43. That's not by any means pulling away.

4) Rhode Island - The last Liberal Republican is about to bite the dust. Whitehouse has an insurmountable lead over Chaffee.

A huge part of Chafee's weakness is the fallout and resentment from conservatives as a result of the primary battle. A full 25% of Reps feel "very unfavorable" toward Chafee, while Whitehouse only has 3% of Dems who feel that way. As it gets closer to the wire and the Reps get more and more nervous, they will come back into the fold. I'm calling Chafee the winner in this one.

5) New Jersey - Menendez is now leading his Republican opponent. Democrats should hang on to the this state, but the GOP was doomed to have a hard time anyways, due to the heavily Democratic leanings of New Jersey.

These two have been trading the lead back and forth poll to poll. I'm calling this one as the only GOP pickup this year.


For Republicans:

1) Virginia - Allen has finally shut his mouth, and is now increasing his lead over Webb. This state will definitely stay Republican.

Not as confident as you about that one, but it should happen.

2) Montana - Burns, likewise, is keeping his mouth shut, and is closing the gap. The GOP has a chance to retain this seat.

I actually doubt this. In the past 3 weeks, Burns has gained no ground. He's still 7 back.

3) Tennessee - This is the state the Dems were counting on as their magical 6th man to retake the Senate. Ford's lead was tenuous, at best, and as an African American, he needed to stay ahead by more than 2 percentage points, since history has shown that black candidates never win close races. Corker has eliminated Ford's lead, and now the state is listed as a dead heat, which is in Corker's favor. Republicans will retain this seat, and thus, retain the Senate.

Here's hopin, he's only down by two now.

4) Lieberman beats Lamont easily. His lead is double digits. Although Democrat, he frequently votes with the GOP.

I knew it was over the day the story broke that top dems were going to see Lieberman to reassure him that if he won, he would maintain his chairmanships. It's done.

 

[Navy Pride]

Meh, I'd suggest a spread of 5%, but I doubt you'd take that offer. Besides, I'd give you a cool avatar like Thomas Jefferson or Ayn Rand or JFK, whereas you would stick me with someone like Rush Limbaugh. Hardly equitable.

Nah, yours would be Michael Savage...... I had Billo use that one for a week....

 

[Navy Pride]

That site doesn't do a very good job of comparing polls and trends. It predicts that the Dems will pick up 6 seats in the Senate and 22 in the house...I very very very much doubt that.


According to Rasmussen, McCaskill is 1% ahead of Talent, 44-43. That's not by any means pulling away.


A huge part of Chafee's weakness is the fallout and resentment from conservatives as a result of the primary battle. A full 25% of Reps feel "very unfavorable" toward Chafee, while Whitehouse only has 3% of Dems who feel that way. As it gets closer to the wire and the Reps get more and more nervous, they will come back into the fold. I'm calling Chafee the winner in this one.


These two have been trading the lead back and forth poll to poll. I'm calling this one as the only GOP pickup this year.


For Republicans:


Not as confident as you about that one, but it should happen.



I actually doubt this. In the past 3 weeks, Burns has gained no ground. He's still 7 back.



Here's hopin, he's only down by two now.


I knew it was over the day the story broke that top dems were going to see Lieberman to reassure him that if he won, he would maintain his chairmanships. It's done.

Its very hard to unseat and incumbent in the Senate unless he is carrying a lot of baggage..........