Not since 1973 has this been more obvious, but whether the lesson is better learned this time around is a whole other can of worms.
I remember sitting in an odd/even gas like thinking just that.
The US had just capped a decade long research and investment effort that had put a man on the moon.
It seemed to me that it would be child’s play for the US to achieve total energy independence if it decided to make the effort.
But that did not happen..
Indeed, people who bought Buick Electras and Mercury Marquis in 1974, when dealers couldn’t give then away, we’re trading them in for what they paid for them in 1977.
The pattern repeated itself in 1979, and again several times over, whenever there was a spike in oil prices.
This time is different.
Before, there was no reasonable substitute for fossil fuels, especially for transportation.
This is no long true.
There is little doubt that practical affordable electric cars and trucks are just around the corner. This crisis will accelerate public interest in them, as well, just at the time that the charging infrastructure is starting to get built out, and issues like range anxiety are being overcome.
The current trickle of sales will become a stream, and when critical mass is reached, turn into a flood.
This will happen much sooner than it would have otherwise.
Europe is going to stampede toward renewables.
I suspect that this will be the last oil war.
The developed world is done with being hostage to unstable and unreliable oil states and oil companies.
And if renewable and battery technology does mature as fast as it is expected to, the third world won’t ever need to build the network of centralized power plants and high tension distribution networks that were built in the last century. In the same way they bypassed the need for land line phone networks.
This is why the oil states and the frackers are not increasing production. This is probably one of the last major oil spikes. They all know that oil prices will go right back down, and stay that way as demand for oil for gasoline starts to drop. This is their last chance to make windfall profits.