[Sanctions] Herr Scholz Urges Prudence.

[Juin]

.



And he joins Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in that regard. So far the only two adults in the room. There may be many others who are at present chose to be silent so as not to provoke Ukraine's Zelensky, thereby inviting public reprimands. Nobody is safe from Zelensky's reprimands. Senile Joe, no less, had to have Jen Psaki issue corrections after a sharp reprimand from Zelensky, following a press conference in which Senile Joe appeared not to adhere fully to the script.

But sanctions are tricky matters. For starters, they are never cost free, unless you are sanctioning someone with whom you conduct zero business. But if you do do business with someone then sanctions on that person comes with costs, the costs increasing with the magnitude of business conducted.

This is where Blinken Antony comes in. Blinken on a daily basis threatens the mother of all sanctions on the Russian Dictator. Problem is Blinken is totally silent onto exactly what is the potential costs of sanctioning the Dictator. As a matter of fact Blinken daily lamentations- since at times the threats come across more like lamentations- leave the impression it will be cost free, and western economies may not suffer a jolt. Zelensky even goes as far as demanding the Dictator be booted off SWIFT. But if the Dictator is booted off SWIFT how do Europeans then pay for the Dictator's gas? And what about German automobile businesses that sell to Russian consumers?

If sanctions on the Russian Dictator by Germany comes with a huge price tag, who pays for that bill? Since Ukraine demands those sanctions should Germany add that to Ukraine's future debts?

I believe Herr Scholz’s call for caution and prudence is well founded.

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine​

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a statement before a cabinet enclosure at the Chancellery to lay out and discuss Germany's policy plans for its G7 presidency in Berlin, Germany, January 21, 2022. Michael Kappeler/Pool via REUTERS

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's leader has urged Europe and the United States to think carefully when considering sanctions against Russia for any aggression against Ukraine in a crisis pitting Berlin's main gas supplier against its biggest security allies.

Among a range of possible Western sanctions https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...tern-sanctions-might-target-russia-2022-01-19 against President Vladmir Putin's government, Germany could halt the Nord Stream 2 https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...pipeline-if-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-01-18 pipeline from Russia if it invades Ukraine.

But that would risk exacerbating a gas supply crunch https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-tough-decisions-over-gas-pipeline-2022-01-20 in Europe that has caused energy prices to soar.

"Prudence dictates choosing measures that will have the greatest effect on those who violate the jointly agreed principles," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Scholz was quoted as saying by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper on Sunday.

"At the same time, we have to consider the consequences this will have for us," Scholz added, saying nobody should think there was a measure available without consequences for Germany.

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine By Reuters

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine

uk.investing.com

 

[Mycroft]

.



And he joins Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in that regard. So far the only two adults in the room. There may be many others who are at present chose to be silent so as not to provoke Ukraine's Zelensky, thereby inviting public reprimands. Nobody is safe from Zelensky's reprimands. Senile Joe, no less, had to have Jen Psaki issue corrections after a sharp reprimand from Zelensky, following a press conference in which Senile Joe appeared not to adhere fully to the script.

But sanctions are tricky matters. For starters, they are never cost free, unless you are sanctioning someone with whom you conduct zero business. But if you do do business with someone then sanctions on that person comes with costs, the costs increasing with the magnitude of business conducted.

This is where Blinken Antony comes in. Blinken on a daily basis threatens the mother of all sanctions on the Russian Dictator. Problem is Blinken is totally silent onto exactly what is the potential costs of sanctioning the Dictator. As a matter of fact Blinken daily lamentations- since at times the threats come across more like lamentations- leave the impression it will be cost free, and western economies may not suffer a jolt. Zelensky even goes as far as demanding the Dictator be booted off SWIFT. But if the Dictator is booted off SWIFT how do Europeans then pay for the Dictator's gas? And what about German automobile businesses that sell to Russian consumers?

If sanctions on the Russian Dictator by Germany comes with a huge price tag, who pays for that bill? Since Ukraine demands those sanctions should Germany add that to Ukraine's future debts?

I believe Herr Scholz’s call for caution and prudence is well founded.

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine​

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a statement before a cabinet enclosure at the Chancellery to lay out and discuss Germany's policy plans for its G7 presidency in Berlin, Germany, January 21, 2022. Michael Kappeler/Pool via REUTERS

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's leader has urged Europe and the United States to think carefully when considering sanctions against Russia for any aggression against Ukraine in a crisis pitting Berlin's main gas supplier against its biggest security allies.

Among a range of possible Western sanctions https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...tern-sanctions-might-target-russia-2022-01-19 against President Vladmir Putin's government, Germany could halt the Nord Stream 2 https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...pipeline-if-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-01-18 pipeline from Russia if it invades Ukraine.

But that would risk exacerbating a gas supply crunch https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-tough-decisions-over-gas-pipeline-2022-01-20 in Europe that has caused energy prices to soar.

"Prudence dictates choosing measures that will have the greatest effect on those who violate the jointly agreed principles," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Scholz was quoted as saying by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper on Sunday.

"At the same time, we have to consider the consequences this will have for us," Scholz added, saying nobody should think there was a measure available without consequences for Germany.

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine By Reuters

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine

uk.investing.com

Didn't Trump warn Germany about giving Russia too much power over themselves? Too bad they didn't listen to him.

 

[maxparrish]

.



And he joins Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in that regard. So far the only two adults in the room. There may be many others who are at present chose to be silent so as not to provoke Ukraine's Zelensky, thereby inviting public reprimands. Nobody is safe from Zelensky's reprimands. Senile Joe, no less, had to have Jen Psaki issue corrections after a sharp reprimand from Zelensky, following a press conference in which Senile Joe appeared not to adhere fully to the script.

But sanctions are tricky matters. For starters, they are never cost free, unless you are sanctioning someone with whom you conduct zero business. But if you do do business with someone then sanctions on that person comes with costs, the costs increasing with the magnitude of business conducted.

This is where Blinken Antony comes in. Blinken on a daily basis threatens the mother of all sanctions on the Russian Dictator. Problem is Blinken is totally silent onto exactly what is the potential costs of sanctioning the Dictator. As a matter of fact Blinken daily lamentations- since at times the threats come across more like lamentations- leave the impression it will be cost free, and western economies may not suffer a jolt. Zelensky even goes as far as demanding the Dictator be booted off SWIFT. But if the Dictator is booted off SWIFT how do Europeans then pay for the Dictator's gas? And what about German automobile businesses that sell to Russian consumers?

If sanctions on the Russian Dictator by Germany comes with a huge price tag, who pays for that bill? Since Ukraine demands those sanctions should Germany add that to Ukraine's future debts?

I believe Herr Scholz’s call for caution and prudence is well founded.

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine​

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a statement before a cabinet enclosure at the Chancellery to lay out and discuss Germany's policy plans for its G7 presidency in Berlin, Germany, January 21, 2022. Michael Kappeler/Pool via REUTERS

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's leader has urged Europe and the United States to think carefully when considering sanctions against Russia for any aggression against Ukraine in a crisis pitting Berlin's main gas supplier against its biggest security allies.

Among a range of possible Western sanctions https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...tern-sanctions-might-target-russia-2022-01-19 against President Vladmir Putin's government, Germany could halt the Nord Stream 2 https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...pipeline-if-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-01-18 pipeline from Russia if it invades Ukraine.

But that would risk exacerbating a gas supply crunch https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-tough-decisions-over-gas-pipeline-2022-01-20 in Europe that has caused energy prices to soar.

"Prudence dictates choosing measures that will have the greatest effect on those who violate the jointly agreed principles," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Scholz was quoted as saying by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper on Sunday.

"At the same time, we have to consider the consequences this will have for us," Scholz added, saying nobody should think there was a measure available without consequences for Germany.

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine By Reuters

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine

uk.investing.com

Ahhhh yesss, the willingness of western capitalist countries to appease and enable the world's most evil societies so as to never, ever, sacrifice profits.

V.I. Lenin:

"They [the capitalists] will furnish credits which will serve us (to)...restore our military industry necessary for our future attacks against our suppliers. To put it in other words, they will work on the preparation of their own suicide."

American Corporations Must Stop Selling out to China’s Brutal Regime

According to legend, when Vladimir Lenin was asked how he planned to “hang all the capitalists” in the face of a rope shortage in the young Soviet Union, he replied “don’t worry comrade, the capitalists will sell us the rope.” Though likely apocryphal, the quote captures the spirit of what Lenin...

www.aei.org

Some things never change.

 

[anatta]

why wait? sanction now and worry about it later ( i kid you not)

Senate Dems BLOCK Cruz's bill to impose sanctions on Russian pipeline

Senate Democrats on Thursday defeated a bill by Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz that would have slammed sanctions on businesses involved in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[maxparrish]

In general, the three principles of "liberal" western European countries are:

1) They are more than happy to persecute, sanction, or even ruin individuals in democratic society for their "unwoke" consciousness... the weaker the better.

2) They are terrified of taking any substantive action against not so helpless totalitarian states who are exponentially more evil.

3) They will rationalize, temporize, excuse, and appease in order to avoid offending these evil nations because it might actually cost something. In fact, they find no moral problem in acting as effectively collaborationists serving the interests of totalitarian regimes.

 

[TheParser]

Why has the United States so publicly confronted the Czar?

By threatening him in front of his own people, they are almost forcing him to take some kind of action lest he lose face.

President Biden's and Secretary of State Blinken's tough talk is actually a sign of weakness. They are trying to show the American people how tough they are toward the Russians.

It would be much better to conduct diplomacy in private.

President Biden, for example, should have private conversations with the Czar, who might think twice before invading Ukraine.

When reporters ask President Biden about the tense situation, the latter should gently answer that he has no comment about the situation. That takes a lot of self-confidence.

 

[Roadvirus]

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine​

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine By Reuters

Germany urges 'prudence' in potential sanctions against Russia over Ukraine

uk.investing.com

Germany has let itself become dependent on Russia through Oil AND Coal. So naturally, they have to be good little lapdogs:

According to the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (BAFA), Germany received 34% of its crude oil needs from Russia in 2021 during the months of January through October. It also received 53% of its hard coal needed to fuel German power generators and steelmakers, from its northern neighbor last year, reported Reuters.

Ukraine crisis highlights German dependence on Russian oil

Russia’s imminent threat of a Ukrainian invasion has reopened Cold War-era wounds and left world leaders scrambling to shore up NATO ties to present a united European front.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Ishm]

Why has the United States so publicly confronted the Czar?

By threatening him in front of his own people, they are almost forcing him to take some kind of action lest he lose face.

President Biden's and Secretary of State Blinken's tough talk is actually a sign of weakness. They are trying to show the American people how tough they are toward the Russians.

It would be much better to conduct diplomacy in private.

President Biden, for example, should have private conversations with the Czar, who might think twice before invading Ukraine.

When reporters ask President Biden about the tense situation, the latter should gently answer that he has no comment about the situation. That takes a lot of self-confidence.

Read that and realised Biden is following the example Trump set with the European allies. Lots of noise in the press to look tough to the voting public, zero real diplomacy. Surely everyone thinks that's the best way to do things now?

 

[maxparrish]

Why has the United States so publicly confronted the Czar?

By threatening him in front of his own people, they are almost forcing him to take some kind of action lest he lose face.

President Biden's and Secretary of State Blinken's tough talk is actually a sign of weakness. They are trying to show the American people how tough they are toward the Russians.

It would be much better to conduct diplomacy in private.

President Biden, for example, should have private conversations with the Czar, who might think twice before invading Ukraine.

When reporters ask President Biden about the tense situation, the latter should gently answer that he has no comment about the situation. That takes a lot of self-confidence.

Oh please. They've had plenty of private conversations for years with Putin. The bottom line is that Putin always making his demands and threats public, which in turn requires a public response that is unambiguous and united. The only fault I see is in Biden's failure (or is it inability?) to explicitly signal that he will make sure Russia is tossed from the SWIFT system and the willingness of the US to support all minorities inside any republic, one still in or outside the boundaries of Russia. And the ministers of every other major NATO country ought to be backing that message.

 

[maxparrish]

Germany has let itself become dependent on Russia through Oil AND Coal. So naturally, they have to be good little lapdogs:

According to the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (BAFA), Germany received 34% of its crude oil needs from Russia in 2021 during the months of January through October. It also received 53% of its hard coal needed to fuel German power generators and steelmakers, from its northern neighbor last year, reported Reuters.

Ukraine crisis highlights German dependence on Russian oil

Russia’s imminent threat of a Ukrainian invasion has reopened Cold War-era wounds and left world leaders scrambling to shore up NATO ties to present a united European front.

www.foxnews.com

Although Germany's oil and coal needs could easily be satisfied with slightly more expensive sourcing, the attraction of low ball pricing has seduced the Germans into becoming a supplicant to Russia. And the prospect of losing cheap Russian natural gas, and having to buy considerably more expensive LPG from the US has caused them to become jelly kneed and frightened weak sisters.

Of course, they are in this fix because of decades of moronic energy policy and a failure, unlike the French, to heavily invest in nuclear power. Germany's greens obsession over climate change has led themselves already to expensive electricity, bad choices, and shortages.

Once again, one has to marvel at the suicidal impulse of these "progressive" nations, and shake one's head at their doubling down whenever reality smacks them in the face.

 

[Juin]

Oh please. They've had plenty of private conversations for years with Putin. The bottom line is that Putin always making his demands and threats public, which in turn requires a public response that is unambiguous and united. The only fault I see is in Biden's failure (or is it inability?) to explicitly signal that he will make sure Russia is tossed from the SWIFT system

That is the problem with sanctions diplomacy. It is sold to the public deceptively. Sanctions are a double edged sword; both the sanctioner and sancitoned pay a price. The way Blinken Antony and Boris Johnson are selling the sanctions leaves the public with the impression it is max cost on Russia and zero cost on others.

Now if Russia is kicked out of SWIFT how does Germany, Ukraine, Poland, Greece, Serbia and all the countries that purchase Russian gas pay for the gas? Or maybe the idea is that kicking Russia out of SWIFT will make it impossible for Russia to sell gas. In that case is there an arrangement to fill the deficit created by absence of Russian gas?

And since German businesses sell billions of dollars in goods to Russia, how are they supposed to get paid?

and the willingness of the US to support all minorities inside any republic, one still in or outside the boundaries of Russia. And the ministers of every other major NATO country ought to be backing that message.

Except the US generally considers Russian minorities as illegitimate minorities. Ukraine has Russian minorities, but the west prefers to dismiss them as Russian agents. Georgia has minorities which the west also prefers to dismiss as Russian agents.

 

[MaryP]

Germany has let itself become dependent on Russia through Oil AND Coal. So naturally, they have to be good little lapdogs:

According to the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (BAFA), Germany received 34% of its crude oil needs from Russia in 2021 during the months of January through October. It also received 53% of its hard coal needed to fuel German power generators and steelmakers, from its northern neighbor last year, reported Reuters.

Ukraine crisis highlights German dependence on Russian oil

Russia’s imminent threat of a Ukrainian invasion has reopened Cold War-era wounds and left world leaders scrambling to shore up NATO ties to present a united European front.

www.foxnews.com

Maybe this is a dumb question, but could Germany get its oil and coal elsewhere? Sounds like Germany doesn't see that as an option. Of course Germany is against giving up half its coal supply and such a large amount of oil. It would be absolutely disastrous. But isn't there anyone else who could sell it to them?

 

[maxparrish]

That is the problem with sanctions diplomacy. It is sold to the public deceptively. Sanctions are a double edged sword; both the sanctioner and sancitoned pay a price. The way Blinken Antony and Boris Johnson are selling the sanctions leaves the public with the impression it is max cost on Russia and zero cost on others.

Now if Russia is kicked out of SWIFT how does Germany, Ukraine, Poland, Greece, Serbia and all the countries that purchase Russian gas pay for the gas? Or maybe the idea is that kicking Russia out of SWIFT will make it impossible for Russia to sell gas. In that case is there an arrangement to fill the deficit created by absence of Russian gas?

And since German businesses sell billions of dollars in goods to Russia, how are they supposed to get paid?

First, Russia ranks as the 12th in volume for German exports. 11 other countries, including tiny Czech Republic and Belgium buy more from Russia.

Second, hard currency transfers, in cash, to Russia would be no more a problem than it was in the cold war. There are exceptions, I imagine Russia would be desperate to sell.

Three, the real question is why doesn't Germany buy its coal and oil elsewhere, as well as natural gas from, for example, the US? For the west the cost of sanctions would be far less than that to the Russian economy, which produces nothing but fossil fuels and arms.

Except the US generally considers Russian minorities as illegitimate minorities. Ukraine has Russian minorities, but the west prefers to dismiss them as Russian agents. Georgia has minorities which the west also prefers to dismiss as Russian agents.

Because the term "illegitimate minorities" doesn't exist in international diplomacy or law, I have no idea what the heck you think you are communicating. Rather than invent a term, try explaining what you mean.

 

[Tangmo]

Trojan Horse is more like it...

Germany Seen as Western Alliance’s Weak Link​

Germany doesn’t appear to view Russian military threats against Ukraine with the same sense of urgency as the United States and some of its European allies, who have started to identify Berlin as a weak link in the Western alliance, say diplomats and analysts. Germany has refused requests from Ukraine for military assistance, prompting exasperation in Kyiv. Berlin has also blocked the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania from supplying Kyiv with German-made weapons. Last week, German officials told the country’s leading business newspaper that excluding Russia from SWIFT isn’t being considered. The U.S. National Security Council has denied this, saying “no option is off the table.” Scholz’s own party, the Social Democrats (SPD), the coalition’s senior partner, has a powerful left-wing which advocates closer ties with Moscow, and its parliamentary leader, Rolf Mützenich, has championed a new “European peace order including Russia.” And even moderate SPD luminaries are reluctant to pursue a tough Russia policy; they favor détente and dialogue. Germany’s defense minister Lambrecht and the SDP’s secretary-general, Kevin Kühnert, are opposed to shutting down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, saying it should be kept separate from the unfolding geopolitical crisis. The Greens and the center-right Free Democrats want Germany to pursue a much more forthright policy towards Russia.


Ukrainian dismay only deepened Saturday when the head of the German navy, Vice-Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, described Western fears of a Russian invasion as “nonsense” and called for Vladimir Putin to be given “the respect he demands — and probably deserves.” Ukrainian officials — and Germany’s NATO allies — fear any wavering by such a key player as Germany risks being seen by the Russian president as evidence that the alliance against him isn’t as united as Washington and Kyiv would wish. They fear that could prompt the Russian leader to make a big military gamble. “That’s why Berlin’s decision on Friday to stop Estonia selling German-made weapons to Ukraine was a mistake,” according to Tom Tugendhat, a British lawmaker and chairman of the British parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

Germany Seen as Western Alliance’s Weak Link

Germany doesn’t appear to share the same sense of urgency about Russian military threats against Ukraine

www.voanews.com

The piece in Voice of America does not mention Berlin informally denying RAF/NATO otherwise routine overflight of Germany to deliver more than 1100 light anti tank weapons to Ukraine. This is not the action of a reliable, dependable, trustworthy NATO ally, against Russian aggression especially. It's said the German people have serious qualms about Russian soldiers being killed/injured, but virtually nothing's being said in Germany about Germans concerns for Ukrainians, both military and civilian alike.

Time to starting reducing Germany's Russia Hugging role in NATO. The German military is a junkyard anyway given Merkel let it deteriorate so it would be undeployable against Russian forces. Some small number of German Kommando troops used to deploy with US SpOps in Iraq and Syria, and Afghanistan too to counter insurgent operations, but Germans will never fight Russians again no matter what the reason or cause. Never again.

 

[Tangmo]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but could Germany get its oil and coal elsewhere? Sounds like Germany doesn't see that as an option. Of course Germany is against giving up half its coal supply and such a large amount of oil. It would be absolutely disastrous. But isn't there anyone else who could sell it to them?

It's an excellent question because it nails down how and why the Russo-German Geostrategic Axis of Energy is joined to work hard to make Europe dependent on Russian energy resources, ie, manipulation, blackmail, control -- forever and a day.

US allies and strategic partners in East Asia do not and will not rely on Russia as a major source of their energy consumption, this being so despite Russia being right there. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the ten nations that rim the South China Sea get their energy from the ME rather than from Russia. The ME suppliers make zero political and geostrategic demands against these nations.

These countries would pay much less to Russia for oil and gas than they pay to ME energy exporting countries. The distance between the ME and East Asia is great and now it has its own hazards because of the CCP-PRC in the South China Sea lanes. The financial and economic costs are much greater to the East Asian nations to source their energy from the ME.

Yet these East Asian allies and strategic partners of the US are not about to get hoodwinked and succumb to State Capture by the Kremlin Mafia the way Germany is. And Germany being a willing, eager and enthusiastic partner to the Kremlin Mafia means Europe is too. So now imagine the East Asia nations relying on both Russia and the ME given Russian evil schemes and Chinese grandiose ambitions in the neighborhood and, indeed, globally.

So the Europeans dominated by the scheming Russo-German Axis of Energy are either too cheap to preclude their present predicament or they are too stupid. Of course there's the distinct possibility the Europeans led ever so reluctantly by the Germans, but led nevertheless as they are, are both cheapskates and stupid besides. Two world wars stupid.

 

[Juin]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but could Germany get its oil and coal elsewhere? Sounds like Germany doesn't see that as an option. Of course Germany is against giving up half its coal supply and such a large amount of oil. It would be absolutely disastrous. But isn't there anyone else who could sell it to them?

Keep in mind that Germany does not appear to see Russia as a problem to them at all. As far as Germany goes, they point out to who will listen that they have been into gas business with Russia going back decades. Merkel and others have pointed out that they even did business with the Bolsheviks. The problem is that Germans- maybe still suffering from WWII trauma- are not inclined to express themselves in high decibels, and so others don't pay attention to what they are saying.

And the plot thickens.

You would think that Ukraine will like to see Germany stop all gas business with its nemesis Russia. But a closer examination reveals that not to be the case. What pisses off Ukraine is that Germany and Russia have been conniving to cut Ukraine out of the gas business by building a direct pipeline to Germany from Russia under the Baltic Sea. Ukraine is incandescent. She makes good money charging transit fees for gas heading to Germany from Russia. In that sense Ukraine is like some mob boss whose cut in a laundry business is about to disappear.

And everything is fungible. Even if today Germany doesn't buy Russian gas it doesn't mean it won't use Russian gas. Ask Ukraine. Ukraine does not buy gas directly from Russia. She buys them from other European countries. But these countries got the gas from Russia and then resold to Ukraine. So Ukraine winds up with same Russian gas but at a higher price than if she just bought it directly from Russia.

And to achieve this Europeans had to resort to something called "reverse flows". The gas from Russia to Europe transits Ukraine through pipelines. In the days Ukraine bought gas directly from Russia she just took her own quota and forwarded the rest to Europe. When she won't buy directly from Russia all the gas goes to Europe, where someone buys it and sells it back to Ukraine. Arrangements are then made for the gas to be shipped back to Ukraine in same pipelines. That gave rise to the phrase "reverse flows".

As you can guess after a while someone figured this didn't make sense. Why ship gas to Europe through Ukraine only to ship it back again! So enter what came to be known as "virtual reverse flows". The figment of reverse flows will be kept on, at least on paper. But on the ground Ukraine will not forward all the gas to Europe anymore. She will keep from forwarding whatever portion she paid some European for. Everyone will pretend the gas went to Europe and came back.

You can imagine this astonished the Russians no end. Everything is running exactly like it was before, except that Ukraine is paying many times what she would have paid if she just bought the gas directly from. Russia.

I am sure Germans have figured that in the long run that is exactly what may end up happening. There are other pipelines to Europe. Germany may wind up with same Russian gas but at a much higher price

 

[Juin]

It would be much better to conduct diplomacy in private.

Cannot agree more.

Right now it is not even clear what is holding both sides from reaching agreement other not losing face in public.

Take Russia. Putin wants written no further expansion commitments from Nato. If you look at it carefully it is a superfluous demand. After the way the Dictator has reacted further expansion is unlikely. In private, or through mediators, someone should tell the Dictator his army already guarantees him what he wants in writing.

On the Nato side is the Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's Doctrine. The highly academic thesis that the principle of sovereignty is violated if sovereign nations are not free to make their own security arrangements. That it is tantamount to blasphemy for a power to purpot to veto a decision by other sovereign nations. This fellow's thesis is so abstract and academic as to leave one wondering how he wound up at the head of the world's most puissant military alliance. Julius Caesar will be surprised if an aide informed him it was no business of his who his neighbours were making alliances with. As a matter of fact a nation must consider it a matter of utmost importance who his neighbours are hooking up with.

But Nato realised that at its inception. Which is why it prefers not to admit people outstanding issues. Another way of looking at it is to say if you don't want your neighbour to join Nato immediately cause trouble for that neighbour. Of course it has to be trouble that will give Nato pause. It cannot be Level Serbia trouble. It has to be Level Russia trouble. If you can cause Level Russia trouble you can kill the admission hopes of an aspirant. But isn't that a veto in other words?

 

[Tangmo]

It would be much better to conduct diplomacy in private.

That's the norm and the rule.

There's an exception to every rule however. (Except that one of course.)

Ukraine is the exception thx anyway but you've missed the fact.

 

[Tangmo]

I'd note that Matthias Warnig of the once upon a time East German DDR Stasi who met the KGB Putin in Dresden during the Cold War is the CEO of Nord Stream 2 so you know the whole of the project is up to no good, from its incorporation in Switzerland so it can avoid both EU laws, regulators, courts and German same.

This is of course what the suspension of the NS2 certification process until into H2 of this year is about, ie, the German regulator is enforcing both German law and EU law by requiring NS2 to open its primary Europe office in Germany so it can be subject to the applicable laws in the applicable place. Gazprom/NS2 says maybe they'll open an office in Germany with only a receptionist instead, hence the suspension -- a long term suspension.

So Europe has Putin's campaign of blackmail by which he withholds gas volume to Germany the controlling distributor and into Europe to try to force the German regulator to approve the monopoly project against EU, NATO, USA, that NS2 is. Putin is failing in his blackmail campaign which is only the first phase of guaranteed higher prices Europe will pay to the Gazprom/NS2 geostrategic gas monopoly Putin intends to have.

Nord Stream 2 will give Russia control over gas flow in whole of Europe​

24.01.2022

As the world is kept on the edge of the seat watching what might be the eve of a major military conflict in Europe triggered by Russian fixation to the concept of spheres of influence, the head of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) Sergiy Makogon sounds an alarm saying that turning the Russian-German Nord Strem 2 gas pipeline on would lead to Russia enjoying total sway over the flow of gas in the whole Europe, including prices, which would be set for an even steeper upward spike.

In an interview for Germany’s Die Welt daily, Mr Makogon recalled how Germany’s previous government was on cloud nine imagining that Nord Stream 2 would become a source of cheap gas for Europe and Germany. Although the Ukrainian deemed such approach “understandable”, he also stipulated that geopolitical costs of such a decision were enormous. “Germany’s most glaring mistake was [that] when Nord Strem 2 begins operating, Gazprom will control the access to gas in its entirety, which will bring about a spike in prices that will hit Germany as well. We saw what happened to gas prices in Europe this year,” Mr Makogon stressed, adding that “even the independent International Energy Agency accused Russia of causing a [gas] shortage.”


“In the recent months when gas prices soared, Ukrainian pipelines were working at merely 20 percent of their capacity/throughput. We could double or even triple the volume of gas for Europe. The thing is, Gazprom does not send that much gas,” Mr Makogen said. “They pay us for transit of 110 mln cubic meters of gas daily, yet they send only 50 mln. Meanwhile, gas production in Russia has grown and the demand for gas in Europe is very high. “Even the independent International Energy Agency accused Russia of causing a gas shortage.”

Nord Stream 2 will give Russia control over gas flow in whole of Europe

The head of Ukrainian pipelines recalled that a former officer of the German Democratic Republic’s Ministry for State Security was the CEO of Nord Stream 2.

tvpworld.com

Putin also has as a part of his realized State Capture of the German elites the former SPD chancellor Gerhard Schroederovsky in St. Petersburg where the German sleazebag lords over the NS2 supervisory board. This was after Schroeder was defeated by Merkel in 2005 and when he signed Germany onto Nord Stream while grabbing his hat on his way out and into Russia for Big Bucks. Indeed however, Merkelov picked up for her fast BFF Putin and the Kremlin Mafia where Schroederovsky left off.

Which brings us to the present and future shock of gas prices controlled by Putin unless the German regulator can prevail along with the EU Commission which will get the Gazprom/NS2 application immediately after. Then back to the German regulator for final disposition. Then appeals in the courts. We're talking 2023 or 2024 here and at best for a euro 10bn project that had been scheduled to come online in Q4 of 2019 and that ain't made a single buck in all this time. Which is why people who know are talking NS2 "investment ruin." Indeed, Gazprom/NS2 the past summer pleaded unsuccessfully a "bankruptcy risk" to the Dusseldorf High Court that said Russia knew the laws way back in 2009 so toughsky shitsky on 'em.

 

[Tangmo]

Keep in mind that Germany does not appear to see Russia as a problem to them at all. As far as Germany goes, they point out to who will listen that they have been into gas business with Russia going back decades. Merkel and others have pointed out that they even did business with the Bolsheviks. The problem is that Germans- maybe still suffering from WWII trauma- are not inclined to express themselves in high decibels, and so others don't pay attention to what they are saying.

And the plot thickens.

You would think that Ukraine will like to see Germany stop all gas business with its nemesis Russia. But a closer examination reveals that not to be the case. What pisses off Ukraine is that Germany and Russia have been conniving to cut Ukraine out of the gas business by building a direct pipeline to Germany from Russia under the Baltic Sea. Ukraine is incandescent. She makes good money charging transit fees for gas heading to Germany from Russia. In that sense Ukraine is like some mob boss whose cut in a laundry business is about to disappear.

And everything is fungible. Even if today Germany doesn't buy Russian gas it doesn't mean it won't use Russian gas. Ask Ukraine. Ukraine does not buy gas directly from Russia. She buys them from other European countries. But these countries got the gas from Russia and then resold to Ukraine. So Ukraine winds up with same Russian gas but at a higher price than if she just bought it directly from Russia.

And to achieve this Europeans had to resort to something called "reverse flows". The gas from Russia to Europe transits Ukraine through pipelines. In the days Ukraine bought gas directly from Russia she just took her own quota and forwarded the rest to Europe. When she won't buy directly from Russia all the gas goes to Europe, where someone buys it and sells it back to Ukraine. Arrangements are then made for the gas to be shipped back to Ukraine in same pipelines. That gave rise to the phrase "reverse flows".

As you can guess after a while someone figured this didn't make sense. Why ship gas to Europe through Ukraine only to ship it back again! So enter what came to be known as "virtual reverse flows". The figment of reverse flows will be kept on, at least on paper. But on the ground Ukraine will not forward all the gas to Europe anymore. She will keep from forwarding whatever portion she paid some European for. Everyone will pretend the gas went to Europe and came back.

You can imagine this astonished the Russians no end. Everything is running exactly like it was before, except that Ukraine is paying many times what she would have paid if she just bought the gas directly from. Russia.

I am sure Germans have figured that in the long run that is exactly what may end up happening. There are other pipelines to Europe. Germany may wind up with same Russian gas but at a much higher price

No matter how you slice baloney it's still baloney.

With borscht.

 

[Juin]

First, Russia ranks as the 12th in volume for German exports. 11 other countries, including tiny Czech Republic and Belgium buy more from Russia.

Second, hard currency transfers, in cash, to Russia would be no more a problem than it was in the cold war. There are exceptions, I imagine Russia would be desperate to sell.

You faulted Senile Joe for not explicitly signaling to Putin that he will make sure Russia is booted off the SWIFT system. A move that should be crippling on Russia. But you appear to be saying there are workarounds around SWIFT

Three, the real question is why doesn't Germany buy its coal and oil elsewhere, as well as natural gas from, for example, the US?

I am getting the impression Germany does not appear to be as bothered by Russia as say the US, UK, the Baltic States, Ukraine. If Germany is not as bothered by Russia then it makes no sense for Germany to pay more for gas when Putin is offering bargain price.

For the west the cost of sanctions would be far less than that to the Russian economy, which produces nothing but fossil fuels and arms.

Most likely. But I have no expertise on these matters.

Because the term "illegitimate minorities" doesn't exist in international diplomacy or law, I have no idea what the heck you think you are communicating. Rather than invent a term, try explaining what you mean.

Ukraine is a divided by a faultline with a heavily pro western, ethnic Ukrainian population to the west, and a heavily populated pro Russia, ethnic Russian population to the east and south. Why is it that the Russian minority of Ukraine never gets mention in western dispatches? And when they do is to be branded as agents of Moscow. "illegitimate minorities" is an apt description for minorities the west doesnt like

 

[maxparrish]

Ukraine is a divided by a faultline with a heavily pro western, ethnic Ukrainian population to the west, and a heavily populated pro Russia, ethnic Russian population to the east and south. Why is it that the Russian minority of Ukraine never gets mention in western dispatches? And when they do is to be branded as agents of Moscow. "illegitimate minorities" is an apt description for minorities the west doesnt like

Yes...yes...I've heard this pro Putin Russophile B.S. before. And as always, it's just more of the same disingenuous obfuscation of a basic fact: Ukraine is overwhelmingly Ukrainian.

Now here are the actual facts of Ukraine that your sources don't tell you:

Percentage of Spoken Languages in Ukraine:

Russian: 24%
Ukrainian: 67%
Other: 9.0%

Sign in - Google Accounts

sites.google.com

Percentage of People by Self-Identified Ethnicity:

Russian: 17.3%
Ukrainian: 77.8%
Other: 4.9%


Data from Ethnic Groups in:

Ukraine - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

Percentage of Russian spoken by jurisdiction within Ukraine:

Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So as anyone can see, most of the Ukraine is NOT populated by majority Russian speakers, or those identifying as Russian. In only THREE of the roughly 30 jurisdictions is the Russian language spoken by the majority (and in one more it is split nearly evenly). And as the Crimea has been annexed by Russia, and at least half of two other jurisdictions under the conrol of a fake proxy separatist government, Russian speakers in the remaining Ukraine are even smaller.

So all this east-west Ukraine civil war crap is a meme invented by desperate excuse makers in the west to obscure Russian aggression, particularly egregious in that some of the Ukraine demography was altered by Moscows campaign of mass starvation of Ukraine and the ethnic cleaning of many millions of Tarters shipped into exiles from Crimea.

It's not an east-west civil war "fault line" my friend, not unless you are under the Putin delusion that the Soviet Union never really dissolved, and these nations aren't sovereign.

You faulted Senile Joe for not explicitly signaling to Putin that he will make sure Russia is booted off the SWIFT system. A move that should be crippling on Russia. But you appear to be saying there are workarounds around SWIFT

I am getting the impression Germany does not appear to be as bothered by Russia as say the US, UK, the Baltic States, Ukraine. If Germany is not as bothered by Russia then it makes no sense for Germany to pay more for gas when Putin is offering bargain price.

Of course, there are work arounds if BOTH parties agree to an exchange in hard currency. However, that isn't practical for the hundreds of thousands of financial transactions, loans, capitalization audits, etc. that make up an integrated world banking system. Moreover, Russia has to import most advanced products, from advanced machining to microchips (40 percent of Soviet aircraft are built from foreign parts).

Finally, Germany claims it is greatly bothered by Russian actions, so there isn't any excuse for them to undermine its allies UNLESS they are lying and it is based on pure, short-term, self-interest. If so, then they are bull shitting the west with weasel talk and hand waving while still wanting NATO to protect their sorry ass.

Maybe its time to boot them from NATO...and bid good riddance to the EU and its hapless oppression of its sovereign members.

 

[Juin]

Yes...yes...I've heard this pro Putin Russophile B.S. before. And as always, more disingenuous obfuscation of the basic fact is that Ukraine is overwhelmingly Ukrainian.

Now here are the actual facts your sources don't tell you:

Percentage of Spoken Languages in Ukraine:

Russian: 24%
Ukrainian: 67%

24% is actually very high. That is a quarter of Ukraine. And that is from your CIA data. Other cites I consulted put it at more like 29%.

What was the percentage of minority Ukrainians under the Soviet Union? It was 15% in 1989. So ethnic Ukrainians at 15% of the Soviet Union considered themselves significant enough to make a break for it. But now they want to subject ethnic Russians who are a full 10% more than they were in the Soviet Union?

 

[Juin]

Of course, there are work arounds if BOTH parties agree to an exchange in hard currency.

It comes back to SWIFT. Is it crippling or not. And if it is crippling then how are the Europeans supposed to pay Russia for gas? It boils down to the disconnect between the devastating sanctions promised and the difficulties of sanctions as an effective tool.

However, that isn't practical for the hundreds of thousands of financial transactions, loans, capitalization audits, etc. that make up an integrated world banking system. Moreover, Russia has to import most advanced products, from advanced machining to microchips (40 percent of Soviet aircraft are built from foreign parts).

For all the hundreds of thousand of financial transactins, loans, capitalization, audits that have Russians at one end, at the other end are Germans, French, Greeks, Italians, Brits. Russia sells gas, and Europeans sell goods back to Russia. That means Blinken Antony's crippling sanctions are bound to hit on both sides of the divide. That Blinken Antony is careful not to mention. But just because Blinken Antony doesnt mention it does not mean each European country, as well as businesses are not nervous. Germany for starters is angling behind the scenes for energy not to be touched. I am sure the French have their champagne to protect.

Finally, Germany claims it is greatly bothered by Russian actions, so there isn't any excuse for them to undermine its allies UNLESS they are lying and it is based on pure, short-term, self-interest. If so, then they are bull shitting the west with weasel talk and hand waving while still wanting NATO to protect their sorry ass.

Maybe its time to boot them from NATO...and bid good riddance to the EU and its hapless oppression of its sovereign members.

You may be right on that. The Europeans have to work that out. Me, I am just the humble advocate of the Dictator.

Now everyone wants Germany to arm up. I am not sure that is a wise thing. If Germans get back to the military business what do you think happens next? Right now Germans are as meak as mice. Which is a good thing. If the man builds himself up a formidable army what stops him from throwing his weight around? For better or for worse, Germany has been a repeat offender. I will prefer Germany remains on parole a while longer

 

[maxparrish]

24% is actually very high. That is a quarter of Ukraine. And that is from your CIA data. Other cites I consulted put it at more like 29%.

What was the percentage of minority Ukrainians under the Soviet Union? It was 15% in 1989. So ethnic Ukrainians at 15% of the Soviet Union considered themselves significant enough to make a break for it. But now they want to subject ethnic Russians who are a full 10% more than they were in the Soviet Union?

The CIA factbook, using data before the Russians made it an issue, has always been considered a very authoritative fact source. Your simple minded trope imploded upon close analysis, most of Ukraine speaks Ukrainian and even MORE identify as of Ukrainian ethnicity.

No, Ukrainians didn't "make a break for it" because most Ukrainians were always in Ukraine. But I'm sure they would be very happy if Russians made a break to live in Russia, and Ukraine remained for Ukrainians. So yes both ethnicities are free to move to their cultural homelands...what they are not entitled to do is dismember historic Ukraine, borders agreed to by treaty, and hand it to Putin.

And you know, as well as I, that Putin's objectives are far deeper.