Russia makes moves to annex separatist regions in Ukraine

[NWRatCon]

Russia makes moves to annex separatist regions in Ukraine (npr)​

Russia today made moves toward annexing parts of Ukraine it controls, as the leaders of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics said they would hold a four-day referendum to formally join the Russian Federation, starting as soon as Friday.

The announcement of the snap votes was followed by near-identical announcements in the partially Russian-occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine.

"The long-suffering people of the Donbas deserve to be part of a Great Country, that they have always considered their homeland," wrote Denis Pushillin, the separatist leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, in a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The choreographed series of events was reminiscent of the Russian leader's announcement to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February – following sudden appeals for "security guarantees" from the self-declared east Ukrainian republics.

Should the referendums proceed as planned, they would take place against the backdrop of a fast-moving Ukrainian counteroffensive that has seen Russian forces cede large swaths of territory in the Kharkiv region, in what Kremlin insists has been a limited "special military operation" to date.

But Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tells NPR that Russia doesn't have the capability to host an annexation vote in the parts of Ukraine it occupies.

"It's just propaganda for a domestic audience," said Podolyak. "The Russians want the battlefield to appear level."

The speed of this move is because much of the territory it wants to "annex" is being lost in Ukraine's counteroffensive. It could also backfire, because if they pretend that this territory, like Crimea, is Russian, there is no incentive for Ukraine to stop at its own border in its advance. It could start officially targeting areas of western Russia. Doing so would no longer be an "escalation" in the eyes of Western powers.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

So now they will be in the rather embarrassing position of claiming Ukrainian troops are occupying parts of Russia and demanding they leave, but being unable to actually enforce that claim. Such is the strategic genius we've come to expect out of the Kremlin.

 

[TheParser]

Thousands of Ukrainians and Russians have died a senseless death because of the decision of some ruthless "men" in Russia to annex parts of Ukraine to Russia.

There are no words to describe the suffering that P*t*n and his henchmen have caused.

We can only hope that some patriotic Russians will take the necessary steps to stop this slaughter.

 

[Mr Person]

I suppose the idea is to manufacture an excuse to threaten tactical/limited nukes.

Like crappier, lazier Roman statesmen. Rome loved a good excuse to declare war and made them up all the time. Apparently this made it sufficiently just.

 

[dmpi]

He's playing the North Korean trump card. Sacrifice your own people and try to make the world feel sorry them.

 

[EnigmaO01]

It's time to disrupt their little "referendum vote." What an arrogant assclown Putin is.

 

[EnigmaO01]

I suppose the idea is to manufacture an excuse to threaten tactical/limited nukes.

Like crappier, lazier Roman statesmen. Rome loved a good excuse to declare war and made them up all the time. Apparently this made it sufficiently just.

If they can't pull off their voting to seal the deal, that might take care of the problem. Some precision strikes or untimely deaths of collaborators by partisan operatives needed to make the vote possible could get it done.

 

[EnigmaO01]

So when a country is losing it's time to claim ground for itself? Has anyone ever done this historically?

 

[Gateman_Wen]

Russia makes moves to annex separatist regions in Ukraine (npr)​

Russia today made moves toward annexing parts of Ukraine it controls, as the leaders of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics said they would hold a four-day referendum to formally join the Russian Federation, starting as soon as Friday.

The announcement of the snap votes was followed by near-identical announcements in the partially Russian-occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine.

"The long-suffering people of the Donbas deserve to be part of a Great Country, that they have always considered their homeland," wrote Denis Pushillin, the separatist leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, in a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The choreographed series of events was reminiscent of the Russian leader's announcement to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February – following sudden appeals for "security guarantees" from the self-declared east Ukrainian republics.

Should the referendums proceed as planned, they would take place against the backdrop of a fast-moving Ukrainian counteroffensive that has seen Russian forces cede large swaths of territory in the Kharkiv region, in what Kremlin insists has been a limited "special military operation" to date.

But Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tells NPR that Russia doesn't have the capability to host an annexation vote in the parts of Ukraine it occupies.

"It's just propaganda for a domestic audience," said Podolyak. "The Russians want the battlefield to appear level."

The speed of this move is because much of the territory it wants to "annex" is being lost in Ukraine's counteroffensive. It could also backfire, because if they pretend that this territory, like Crimea, is Russian, there is no incentive for Ukraine to stop at its own border in its advance. It could start officially targeting areas of western Russia. Doing so would no longer be an "escalation" in the eyes of Western powers.

They lost the military campaign and are now gonna try to claim some sorta popular junta thing?

 

[joluoto]

Maybe Putin's ploy to justify general mobilization. If he has the "referendums" go through, he can then claim Russian territory is under attack and use that as a justification to call in the reserves.

 

[Chagos]

Maybe Putin's ploy to justify general mobilization. If he has the "referendums" go through, he can then claim Russian territory is under attack and use that as a justification to call in the reserves.

....................and aimed not solely at Ukraine but at the West for then supplying weapons used in an attack on Russia herself.

He declared partial mobilization today and accused the West of threatening Russia with nukes.

Whole thing, while allowing him to once again threaten the West with massive retaliations, is primarily more of a domestic policy, aimed at drafting even more young Russians into the cannon fodder role while, in that process, trying to silence immense and dangerous criticism from Russia's nationalist right wing, that is screeching for the annihilation of Ukraine to finally being successfully done, even at the cost of nuking Western capital cities.

Those on here and in the Western political theatres screeching for diplomatic solutions will be happy in finding their stupid suppositions confirmed, while those hoping, perhaps not quite as stupidly, that a liberal opposition will form in Russia to foist the Kremlin Don, are just as removed from actual reality.

If the Kremlin thug-in-chief were indeed removed (UNLIKELY!!!!), that would open a kettle of fish in comparison to which the current scenario would seem a picnic. It wouldn't be the impotent oligarchs that topple him and it wouldn't be the incompetent military, it would be the real Russian Nazis.

Real as in being more Nazi than even the current thug-in-chief.

 

[phoenyx]

He declared partial mobilization today and accused the West of threatening Russia with nukes.

That's a large shift, and so I went to confirm it. It's confirmed:

Russia to begin partial mobilization – Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the mobilization of military reservists for ongoing campaign in Ukraine

www.rt.com

I'm happy that it's only a -partial- mobilization, and that it currently only affects military reservists. From the article:

**
The move will see the armed forces draw on military reservists only, and those who have completed national service, the president added. He promised that they would be provided with additional training, along with all the benefits due to people involved in active duty.
**

 

[EnigmaO01]

....................and aimed not solely at Ukraine but at the West for then supplying weapons used in an attack on Russia herself.

He declared partial mobilization today and accused the West of threatening Russia with nukes.

Whole thing, while allowing him to once again threaten the West with massive retaliations, is primarily more of a domestic policy, aimed at drafting even more young Russians into the cannon fodder role while, in that process, trying to silence immense and dangerous criticism from Russia's nationalist right wing, that is screeching for the annihilation of Ukraine to finally being successfully done, even at the cost of nuking Western capital cities.

Those on here and in the Western political theatres screeching for diplomatic solutions will be happy in finding their stupid suppositions confirmed, while those hoping, perhaps not quite as stupidly, that a liberal opposition will form in Russia to foist the Kremlin Don, are just as removed from actual reality.

If the Kremlin thug-in-chief were indeed removed (UNLIKELY!!!!), that would open a kettle of fish in comparison to which the current scenario would seem a picnic. It wouldn't be the impotent oligarchs that topple him and it wouldn't be the incompetent military, it would be the real Russian Nazis.

Real as in being more Nazi than even the current thug-in-chief.

Let's hope Putin is bluffing, and calling his bluff, as far as potentially using nukes, won't come to fruition, because I don't see Ukraine or NATO backing off, as any form capitulation -- as in allowing annexing of Ukraine territory -- only leads to other problems. Putin is attempting to hold Ukraine and the west hostage, which can't be allowed.

A ray of hope I see, which tells me Putin may be bluffing, is when Ukraine struck the Russian Black Sea headquarters in Crimea, which the Russian's stole and annexed as their own territory, Putin did nothing except withdraw his Black Sea headquarters. And don't forget when the pride of the Russia fleet Moskav was sunk there wasn't any appreciable escalation either.

Is it possible if Putin is removed his fellow thugs would be removed along with him or scurry for cover like the cockroaches they are? And don't forget Russia is quickly becoming emasculated with severe economic sanctions, which could be used as a bargaining chip to convince them they are on a road that is not good for Russia if Putin is removed. As tough as the Russian people are they may only accept poor economic conditions so long if they also see no good outcome for Putin's escapade in Ukraine. And don't forget the body bags coming back.

 

[multivita-man]

So now they will be in the rather embarrassing position of claiming Ukrainian troops are occupying parts of Russia and demanding they leave, but being unable to actually enforce that claim. Such is the strategic genius we've come to expect out of the Kremlin.

They waited too long, but then again, they were always going to have this problem. They've made their acquired territory mostly uninhabitable, or at minimum, a highly unattractive relocation destination, which has led me to wonder if at first they might try to turn it into some sort of penal colony. That way if a complex gets whacked with a HIMARS, they'll just write the lives lost off as a bad expense. Any claim to territory needs to be stable or firmly under Russian control, and then Russified. That's not happening as long as Ukraine continues to get Western support and as long as Russia continues to get sanctioned.

I do wonder if Ukraine can retake Crimea. Not sure that they can. The desire to get Russian energy and both Ukrainian and Russian commodities back onto the market may be too great.

 

[EnigmaO01]

I do wonder if Ukraine can retake Crimea. Not sure that they can. The desire to get Russian energy and both Ukrainian and Russian commodities back onto the market may be too great.

Don't underestimate the Ukrainians as this has been done before several times with the end result the Ukrainians always came out on top. First they were supposed to be defeated in a few weeks when Russia invaded and that didn't happen. Then they were exepected to be at a stalemate on the battlefield and that hasn't happened. I think it's possible that the Russian troops will be so decimated and demoralized at some point they really can't defend Crimea. And Zelenskyy has said he wants all Ukraine territory back pre 2014 nothing less.

I don't see the Ukrainians backing of one iota, and if the europeans can get through the winter it's only downhill for the Russian presence in Ukraine. Somebody in Russia has to have a brain and realize not only are they losing ground they can't successfully occupy Ukraine even if they won the battles. The Ukrainians want them out of their country.

 

[BlueTex]

 

[EnigmaO01]

Isn't that interesting... Seems to me at least some of the Russians want no part of this.

 

[multivita-man]

Don't underestimate the Ukrainians as this has been done before several times with the end result the Ukrainians always came out on top. First they were supposed to be defeated in a few weeks when Russia invaded and that didn't happen. Then they were exepected to be at a stalemate on the battlefield and that hasn't happened. I think it's possible that the Russian troops will be so decimated and demoralized at some point they really can't defend Crimea. And Zelenskyy has said he wants all Ukraine territory back pre 2014 nothing less.

I don't see the Ukrainians backing of one iota, and if the europeans can get through the winter it's only downhill for the Russian presence in Ukraine. Somebody in Russia has to have a brain and realize not only are they losing ground they can't successfully occupy Ukraine even if they won the battles. The Ukrainians want them out of their country.

The bold is the key X factor. That's a big if, because we're looking at double-digit inflation, a certain recession (potentially a deep one), and resource scarcity the likes of which haven't been experienced in modern times. Europe is also having to act fast to avoid a liquidity crisis for European energy companies. This is going to be a monumental challenge politically, and it will put stress on liberally-minded democracies.

 

[BlueTex]

Isn't that interesting... Seems to me at least some of the Russians want no part of this.

Dangerous times in Russia...

 

[multivita-man]

Isn't that interesting... Seems to me at least some of the Russians want no part of this.

Very typical. Parents want their children out. The same reason my ancestors, three brothers aged 14, 15, and 17, were sent by their mother out of Bavaria in 1849-50. Pan-Germanism was becoming a thing and the smart families knew what was coming.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Dangerous times in Russia...

Could be dangerous times elsewhere too.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Very typical. Parents want their children out. The same reason my ancestors, three brothers aged 14, 15, and 17, were sent by their mother out of Bavaria in 1849-50. Pan-Germanism was becoming a thing and the smart families knew what was coming.

Can you imagine being a Jew in Europe as things heated up in WWII?

 

[EnigmaO01]

The bold is the key X factor. That's a big if, because we're looking at double-digit inflation, a certain recession (potentially a deep one), and resource scarcity the likes of which haven't been experienced in modern times. Europe is also having to act fast to avoid a liquidity crisis for European energy companies. This is going to be a monumental challenge politically, and it will put stress on liberally-minded democracies.

Not sure I agree it's that bad. There has been time to prepare, and Germany itself has been doing an exemplary job of that. We could get lucky and have a mild winter over there. It's been the trend anyway.

 

[multivita-man]

Can you imagine being a Jew in Europe as things heated up in WWII?

When I was growing up my family was good friends with a Jewish family. The father and his mother, who was still alive, escaped Austria before its annexation. I forgot how but the writing was on the wall and they got out as fast as they could.

There were many German and Austrian Jews in the 1920s who laughed off the growing Nazi threat, believing even as late as 1931 that Germans were rational people and that they wouldn't possibly vote for these clowns parading around in these silly outfits and performing these crazy rituals in which they kiss Nazi flags.

Humankind's note to self: never rely on our humanity or our rationality, never underestimate our capacity for cruelty. When people tell you that they intend to destroy you, believe them.

 

[multivita-man]

Could be dangerous times elsewhere too.

Indeed. I am more than a little concerned about the geopolitical trends that are taking place. There are the already obvious trends toward nationalism, populism, and isolationism, as well as the growing popularity of economic protectionism. But more than that there's a growing skepticism toward multilateral agreements and cooperation. A trend that was also beginning to take place in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries before the start of WWI. And like now, that period also had several boom-to-bust cycles and terrible economic inequality, with middle classes getting wiped out with each bust. Again, like the last decade or so, owing to the degradation of the New Deal era reforms I would argue.

The response to Ukraine is an exception and in reality, it's confined to an axis of power that is trying to maintain an economic and political world order of its design. There is now, as there was in the years leading up to WWI and II a desire to counter that axis with a counter-axis, to fight the political world order as a group, so as to achieve collectively what one member of the axis cannot independently. Let's call it the axis of the existing world order versus the anti-axis of pariah states.

My concern is that these axes will continue to engage in antagonism and over time, enter into agreements that require an axis-wide response if a member is attacked. Obviously, NATO already fits that description, but the concern is that an axis of China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and perhaps a few others could have a similarly binding aggression pact type agreement. This is a dangerous predicament as long as we all maintain our current nuclear stockpiles, particularly as resource scarcity moves from the abstract into the realm of the real.