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Raising Arizona

calamity

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Sinema is the first Democrat to win US senate in the copper state since 1995.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Arizona

That particular good news keeps on giving. The John McCain's seat comes up for a vote in 2020. And, right now, I would not give the GOP much of a chance to win it back.

So, why has Arizona flipped?

My thoughts:

Trump repeatedly insulted both of their senators.

Immigrants live there, a lot of immigrants.

Simena is kind of hot, while McSally is not.

Arizona wants to be a forerunner of something new and not just a state playing a bit part in the clown show.
 

MrWonka

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So, why has Arizona flipped?

My thoughts:

A better explanation... While Arizona gets painted as a retirement state like Florida full of old people going there to retire, there is a surprisingly high number of young educated people moving there as well. Phoenix and Scottsdale are very nice cities. They have a number of huge colleges in the state as well.
 

calamity

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California liberals. They destroyed their state, and like locusts, are moving on to destroy another.

I thought it was the conservatives from OC who moved to AZ. The liberals are happy in Cali, fires and all.
 

MTAtech

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My thoughts:

Trump reinforces his supporters to vote GOP but those supporters only have sizable numbers in deep red states. Trump turns off voters who are not core supporters. Thus, women, minorities, the educated, etc. vote against Trump's choice. Trump’s gleefulness about how he personally hounded Jeff Flake out of office, Republicans ended up losing Flake’s seat.
 

ecofarm

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Who knew it was Democrats keeping McCain in seat. Makes perfect sense.
 

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Arizona's urban areas are growing. That's all there is to it. Urban areas tend to be more liberal hence Arizona is becoming more liberal in those areas. The trend has been going on for a while.
 

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Who knew it was Democrats keeping McCain in seat. Makes perfect sense.

McCain was quite a friend to the Democrats. In fact, his backers often supported Democrats in state elections when they feared another Barry Goldwater might be on the horizon.
 

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My thoughts:

Trump reinforces his supporters to vote GOP but those supporters only have sizable numbers in deep red states. Trump turns off voters who are not core supporters. Thus, women, minorities, the educated, etc. vote against Trump's choice. Trump’s gleefulness about how he personally hounded Jeff Flake out of office, Republicans ended up losing Flake’s seat.
Yep - Trump is indeed responsible for this (on many levels), and I ain't complaining.

38 House seats, and at least 7 State Houses are projected to flip. There were 12M more citizens voting Dem for the Senate, than voting Repub. Think of that. The change in mood in the country is unmistakable. The Repub minority only holds-on to its scant power by virtue of an electoral infrastructure that favors them, not by their popularity. And it is this very tyranny-of-the-minority that is causing our country's unrest. It will only be resolved when the electoral process more accurately reflects the will of the people, or the minority ruling party rules more inclusively including the will of the majority.

Majorities ruled by minorities are never peaceful governances, and often become destructive.
 

calamity

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Yep - Trump is indeed responsible for this (on many levels), and I ain't complaining.

38 House seats, and at least 7 State Houses are projected to flip. There were 12M more citizens voting Dem for the Senate, than voting Repub. Think of that. The change in mood in the country is unmistakable. The Repub minority only holds-on to its scant power by virtue of an electoral infrastructure that favors them, not by their popularity. And it is this very tyranny-of-the-minority that is causing our country's unrest. It will only be resolved when the electoral process more accurately reflects the will of the people, or the minority ruling party rules more inclusively including the will of the majority.

Majorities ruled by minorities are never peaceful governances, and often become destructive.
Which tells me just how heavily the system favors rural, mostly empty states.
 

beefheart

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Sinema is the first Democrat to win US senate in the copper state since 1995.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Arizona

That particular good news keeps on giving. The John McCain's seat comes up for a vote in 2020. And, right now, I would not give the GOP much of a chance to win it back.

So, why has Arizona flipped?

My thoughts:

Trump repeatedly insulted both of their senators.

Immigrants live there, a lot of immigrants.

Simena is kind of hot, while McSally is not.

Arizona wants to be a forerunner of something new and not just a state playing a bit part in the clown show.

She had a good record as a representative, she ran a nice campaign vs a very dirty negative campaign from McSally and her backers (including a mailer that showed Phoenix being hit with a nuclear bomb because Sinema supported closing a military base).

The cranky old Arizonan that loved idiots like Arpaio are rapidly dying out and the youth vote turned out in droves.
 

Chomsky

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Which tells me just how heavily the system favors rural, mostly empty states.
Well, it's the Senate. 500K Wyoman's votes = 40M Californian's votes, an 80:1 ratio.
 

Chomsky

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She had a good record as a representative, she ran a nice campaign vs a very dirty negative campaign from McSally and her backers (including a mailer that showed Phoenix being hit with a nuclear bomb because Sinema supported closing a military base).

The cranky old Arizonan that loved idiots like Arpaio are rapidly dying out and the youth vote turned out in droves.
And the rest of the country raises a collective cheer! We were all wondering what the hell is going on with you guys?
 

Xelor

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Arizona flipped because Trump is a liability.

That he is and the impacts thereof offer opportunity for Dems and Reps.

  • Ms. McSally, at the outset of her campaign, had been a somewhat moderate Republican; however, she got "primaried" and opted therefore to forsake moderation, hewing instead to ill-conceived scissionous and vulgarly vindictive Trumpist positions. That she took that tack and lost despite being a celebrated veteran, reasonably apt, and a seemingly decent-enough person/candidate, poignantly reveals Trump's toxicity. Quite simply and in politicking environments unburdened with Trump's BS, McSally would have won.
    • Ms. McSally's loss alludes an opportunity for prudent and sober Republicans to, for 2020's election, or, better yet, in the interim between then and now, bring him to heel, thereby reclaiming their party from him. That's pretty much what GOP-ers need to do to interdict Dem's efforts to build upon their gains.
    • For Democrats, the significance of Sinema's win in AZ, as with AL, gives the lie to notions of presumed inviolability of US Senate seats in traditionally "red" states. Dems are thus given the opportunity to build on the gains of 2017 and 2018 and therefrom expand the nation's "blue" hue.
 

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Yep - Trump is indeed responsible for this (on many levels), and I ain't complaining.

38 House seats, and at least 7 State Houses are projected to flip. There were 12M more citizens voting Dem for the Senate, than voting Repub. Think of that. The change in mood in the country is unmistakable.

Shhhh... stop spreading rumors... Nothing to see here, my fellow Republican friends. Everything is good. You are doing very well... Move along...
 

calamity

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Well, it's the Senate. 500K Wyoman's votes = 40M Californian's votes, an 80:1 ratio.

And, that's who approves judges (or refuses to let the black guy bring his to a vote), ratifies treaties and contributes roughly 20% of the electoral vote needed to elect a president.

The good news, however, is that, even with the inherent institutional advantage (and apparent cheating in Florida and clear trickery in ND), the Republicans have barely held onto the Senate.
 
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Finch

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And, that's who approves judges (or refuses to let the black guy bring his to a vote), ratifies treaties and contributes roughly 20% of the electoral vote needed to elect a president.

The good news, however, is that, even with the inherent institutional advantage (and apparent cheating in Florida and clear trickery in ND), the Republicans have barely held onto the Senate.

Agreed...I expected the Democrats to lose around 5 seats and so far they have only lost 1 with the worst outcome being 3( Mississippi run off and Florida recount still in play)...I feel pretty good about that considering the advantage Repubs had going.
 

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And, that's who approves judges (or refuses to let the black guy bring his to a vote), ratifies treaties and contributes roughly 20% of the electoral vote needed to elect a president.

The good news, however, is that, even with the inherent institutional advantage (and apparent cheating in Florida and clear trickery in ND), the Republicans have barely held onto the Senate.
It's the last gasp of old, conservative, xenophobic, Fundamental Christian white society, as the country demographically slips away from them. And they're not going easily ...
 
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