Pick the Tipping State

[Jay59]

In 2016 Wisconsin put Donald Trump into the White House. Electoral votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan were gravy. New Hampshire almost had the distinction, but Hillary squeaked it out by less than 3000 votes.

Which state will have the distinction of tipping the vote in Tuesday's election?

For reference, you can get final totals of prior elections below. The tipping point is defined by ranking the states by percentage margin, then add EV from largest to closest until you reach 270.

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Detailed national results of US Presidential Elections from 1789 through 2012, US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections since 1990. Site includes election data, county maps and state maps, charts. State and county results from 1892 through 2012.

uselectionatlas.org

 

[Slavister]

Which state will have the distinction of tipping the vote in Tuesday's election?

I am hoping for Texas and/or Georgia.

 

[Jay59]

I am hoping for Texas and/or Georgia.

You miss the point. The idea is not to find the closest race, but the one that puts the candidate over the finish total. Georgia or Texas might put Biden over 300 EV, but the tipping state has already been passed.

 

[Eriech]

Hopefully the "tipping" state is not determined by the state that drags counting out the longest. Pennsylvania is positioning herself to be like Florida in 2000. I don't think it is going to be close though. Trump will have won before the west coast is done voting.

 

[Drawdown]

Maine. How they divide their electors may decide it.

 

[The Mark]

In 2016 Wisconsin put Donald Trump into the White House. Electoral votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan were gravy. New Hampshire almost had the distinction, but Hillary squeaked it out by less than 3000 votes.

Which state will have the distinction of tipping the vote in Tuesday's election?

For reference, you can get final totals of prior elections below. The tipping point is defined by ranking the states by percentage margin, then add EV from largest to closest until you reach 270.

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Detailed national results of US Presidential Elections from 1789 through 2012, US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections since 1990. Site includes election data, county maps and state maps, charts. State and county results from 1892 through 2012.

uselectionatlas.org

Depends on perspective.

Some states, if they want to count all the votes, will not be done for days or maybe even weeks (looking at california, but it's solid biden.).

Some states will have their counts complete much faster.

I'm not sure the winner will be known for sure at 2359 on Tuesday.

 

[JMR]

Hopefully the "tipping" state is not determined by the state that drags counting out the longest. Pennsylvania is positioning herself to be like Florida in 2000. I don't think it is going to be close though. Trump will have won before the west coast is done voting.

You do realize that most states call their winner days before they are actually done counting? That has been the case for decades. This election is not going to be close like 2000, and Trump will be glad he cancelled his attendance at the election night party at the hotel he's been running across the street from the WH.

 

[Jay59]

Hopefully the "tipping" state is not determined by the state that drags counting out the longest. Pennsylvania is positioning herself to be like Florida in 2000. I don't think it is going to be close though. Trump will have won before the west coast is done voting.

It's unlikely that the tipping point state is California, which will almost certainly take longest.

Maine. How they divide their electors may decide it.

A reasonable answer. Indeed, it could have been Maine's second district in 2016. It depends on how close the vote was.

Depends on perspective. Some states, if they want to count all the votes, will not be done for days or maybe even weeks (looking at california, but it's solid biden.). Some states will have their counts complete much faster. I'm not sure the winner will be known for sure at 2359 on Tuesday.

We are dealing with final, official results. The timing is irrelevant.

You do realize that most states call their winner days before they are actually done counting? That has been the case for decades. This election is not going to be close like 2000, and Trump will be glad he cancelled his attendance at the election night party at the hotel he's been running across the street from the WH.

You could be right. Trump may win before the California polls close.

 

[The Mark]

We are dealing with final, official results. The timing is irrelevant.

I hope the final official results are allowed to matter. And are not only official, but accurate and complete.

 

[Cordelier]

In 2016 Wisconsin put Donald Trump into the White House. Electoral votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan were gravy. New Hampshire almost had the distinction, but Hillary squeaked it out by less than 3000 votes.

Which state will have the distinction of tipping the vote in Tuesday's election?

For reference, you can get final totals of prior elections below. The tipping point is defined by ranking the states by percentage margin, then add EV from largest to closest until you reach 270.

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Detailed national results of US Presidential Elections from 1789 through 2012, US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections since 1990. Site includes election data, county maps and state maps, charts. State and county results from 1892 through 2012.

uselectionatlas.org

I'm going to go with Ohio.

 

[Finch]

I'll play this game...Biden will get 2 of 3 from penn, mich, wisc....but that won't be enough as I'm giving Trump fl, nc, tx, and GA....so the tipping state will be Arizona.

 

[Finch]

I'm going to go with Ohio.

That's a good one...

 

[Cordelier]

That's a good one...

So is Arizona... I almost picked that myself.

 

[Jay59]

We have Maine, Arizona and Ohio.

I don't think Ohio is in the running, since the margin was over 8% in 2016. Virginia was closer. Maine and Arizona make sense.

I am going with Minnesota.

 

[calamity]

In 2016 Wisconsin put Donald Trump into the White House. Electoral votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan were gravy. New Hampshire almost had the distinction, but Hillary squeaked it out by less than 3000 votes.

Which state will have the distinction of tipping the vote in Tuesday's election?

For reference, you can get final totals of prior elections below. The tipping point is defined by ranking the states by percentage margin, then add EV from largest to closest until you reach 270.

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Detailed national results of US Presidential Elections from 1789 through 2012, US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections since 1990. Site includes election data, county maps and state maps, charts. State and county results from 1892 through 2012.

uselectionatlas.org

Pennsylvania is the must win, assuming Trump holds Florida. If Florida falls to Biden, the election is over.

 

[Cordelier]

We have Maine, Arizona and Ohio.

I don't think Ohio is in the running, since the margin was over 8% in 2016. Virginia was closer. Maine and Arizona make sense.

I am going with Minnesota.

What kind of a popular vote bump do you figure Biden is going to get compared to Clinton '16?

 

[The Mark]

What kind of a popular vote bump do you figure Biden is going to get compared to Clinton '16?

Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5%. Possibly 10+%.

Edit: I went back and checked, apparently Clinton beat Trump in the 2016 popular vote 48.2% to 46.1%.

So... at least a 3% bump?

 

[Jay59]

What kind of a popular vote bump do you figure Biden is going to get compared to Clinton '16?

I am not expecting any, though the extensive early voting may give him some.

Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5%. Possibly 10+%. Edit: I went back and checked, apparently Clinton beat Trump in the 2016 popular vote 48.2% to 46.1%. So... at least a 3% bump?

That does not track. Votes for Trump only matter if they were for Hillary in 2016.

I can see Trump increasing 10 million votes, some of them from Clinton, but mostly pissed off Republicans and new recruits. Trump drew in a lot of new faces in 2016 and I expect even more this year.

 

[Cordelier]

Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5%. Possibly 10+%.

Edit: I went back and checked, apparently Clinton beat Trump in the 2016 popular vote 48.2% to 46.1%.

So... at least a 3% bump?

Well, let's assume Biden carries all the states Clinton did.... that means he starts with 227 electoral votes. With a 3% bump, that'll give him:

Michigan (Trump carried by 0.23%) +16 (243)
Pennsylvania (Trump carried by 0.72%) +20 (263)
Wisconsin (Trump carried by 0.77%) +10 (273)
Florida (Trump carried by 1.20%) +29 (302)
Nebraska 2nd (Trump carried by 2.24%) +1 (303)

So that'd give you Wisconsin for 270... again. As Wisconsin goes, so goes the nation.

 

[Cordelier]

I am not expecting any, though the extensive early voting may give him some.

Seriously? You don't think Biden will end up with a higher percentage than Clinton did?

 

[The Mark]

Well, let's assume Biden carries all the states Clinton did.... that means he starts with 227 electoral votes. With a 3% bump, that'll give him:

Michigan (Trump carried by 0.23%) +16 (243)
Pennsylvania (Trump carried by 0.72%) +20 (263)
Wisconsin (Trump carried by 0.77%) +10 (273)
Florida (Trump carried by 1.20%) +29 (302)
Nebraska 2nd (Trump carried by 2.24%) +1 (303)

So that'd give you Wisconsin for 270... again. As Wisconsin goes, so goes the nation.

I'm about 85% sure Biden will win by over 300 ECV

 

[Cordelier]

I'm about 85% sure Biden will win by over 300 ECV

I've got him at about 345.

 

[The Mark]

Seriously? You don't think Biden will end up with a higher percentage than Clinton did?

I am 99% sure Biden will have a higher percentage of the popular vote than Clinton did.
I think it'll be more than 50%

 

[The Mark]

I've got him at about 345.

Frankly, I have my fingers crossed for 400+

 

[azgreg]

I'll play this game...Biden will get 2 of 3 from penn, mich, wisc....but that won't be enough as I'm giving Trump fl, nc, tx, and GA....so the tipping state will be Arizona.

That would be neat as my state has never been a factor. However, I think it will be long over by then.