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Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have eight at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona McCain R – Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick Has pulled even with incumbent John McCain at 42 apiece. The trend has been all in Kirkpatrick’s favor over the last two months. It looks like the more people get to know Kirkpatrick, the more Arizonian’s like her. Democratic gain 53-47

Colorado Bennet D – We will not know for sure who will face off against Bennet until Colorado holds it Republican Primary. But Bennet is polling 10 points or more ahead of all the prospective GOP candidates. Democratic Hold 53 R 47 D

Florida Rubio R – Since Rubio has dropped out of the presidential race, he has until May 6th to meet the filling deadline if he wants to run for re-election for his senate seat. Jolly at the moment is leading in the polls in the Republican Primary for his senate seat. But of course that may mean nothing if Rubio decides to run for re-election to retain his seat. Grayson and Murphy are the top two Democrats vying for Rubio’s senate seat. There were two polls in March, Grayson led in one and Murphy in the other. All I can say is to stay tuned. I have been carrying Florida as a Democratic gain over the last several months. If Rubio gets back into this race, I may have to re-evaluate that thinking. But until he does, I am sticking with Florida being a Democratic gain. 52 R 48 D

Illinois Kirk R – A new poll as of 31 March has Duckworth up on Kirk 43-39. That is a lot closer than I ever thought this race could get. But nonetheless, I am sticking with Democrat Tammy Duckworth to win. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D

Nevada Reid D – Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto has cut Republican Joe Heck lead down to three points, 44-41. Heck’s lead had been 10. The trend now favors Masto, I am switching Nevada to a Democratic hold 51 R 49 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Ayotte lead over Democratic Governor Hassan has been cut from 5 down to 1, 43-42. Hassan is on the move. New Hampshire has become a light blue state and keeping that in mind, this seat will go to the Democrat. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D

North Carolina Burr R – Democrat Deborah Ross has cut Republican Burr’s lead down to 5 and 7 points in the last two polls. His lead had been 10 and 11 points. But being an incumbent counts and North Carolina is still a light red state. Republican hold 50 R 50 D

Ohio Portman R – Democratic challenger Strickland continues to lead the incumbent Portman in the last two new polls, 41-40 and 44-42. You can’t get any closer than that. In the past I have gone with the incumbent. But since I think Trump will head the Republican ticket, that means some of the Republican base vote Portman needs to retain his seat may stay home and not vote in November. Thus Strickland will come out on top. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey has increased his lead over Democrat Joe Sestak whom I am sure will be Toomey’s Democratic opponent in November to 8 points. Where the Democrats seem to be gaining the upper hand in most of these at risk states, Pennsylvania is going the other way. I am switching Pennsylvania from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. This goes against my gut feeling and the history for this state, but for the time being I am sticking with the numbers. Republican hold. 49 R 51 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Republican Johnson has narrowed Democrat Russ Feingold’s lead from 13 points to 6 which is a surprise to me. That will not last. I expect Feingold to win fairly easily in November. Democratic gain 48 R 52 D

This month I made 4 changes. Nevada from a Republican gain to a Democratic hold, Ohio from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain, Pennsylvania from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold and New Hampshire from Republican hold back to a Democratic gain. These changes give the senate back to the Democrats regardless of who wins the White House. Last month it was a 50-50 tie, this month the senate belongs to the Democrats, 52-48.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans now have 30 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. That is an important number because if the Democrats could win all 30 Republican at risk seats and keep all 7 of theirs, the Democrats would regain control of the House 218-217. But that isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 20 of the GOP 30 at risk seats while losing one of their own. That is a net gain of 19 seats. That is 4 more seats than last month. The new House will have 228 Republicans to 207 Democrats.

Presidential Election

Using party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. Here are this month’s results.

Hillary Clinton rose this month from 49.5% to 50.8%. Donald Trump corrected his nose dive of last month to rise 2 points this month. Last month he was at 42.9, this month The Donald comes in at 44.9%. 20% of independents now state they will not vote or vote for someone else if the November matchup is between Trump and Clinton. 17% of Republicans say the same along with 6% of Democrats. Independents only give Clinton a 28% favorable rating; they give Trump even worst at 25%. The choice being offered by the two parties is one most Americans do not want.

On the Electoral College side, I am keeping last month’s 338-200 in place. But three polls of red states bear mentioning here. Clinton is tied with Trump in Arizona 38-38, Clinton leads Trump by 2 in Missouri, 42-40 and in Utah where 2 polls were taken this month, Clinton lead Trump by 2 points in one and they were tied in another. I am keeping all three of these states in the Trump column as I expect The Donald to pull out a victory in all three. I will say this, if Hillary Clinton is this close or ahead in these solid red states at this point in time, that is not a good omen for Trump. Another state to keep an eye on is Mississippi where Trump leads Clinton by only 3 points. Although it is too early to say, I wonder if there isn’t a landslide election in the offering.

2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
December Electoral vote R 200 D 338
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
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