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On the issue of raising the minimum wage

What is your opinion on the plans to increase the minimum wage?


  • Total voters
    20
  • Poll closed .
I disagree with you because it depends on which direction people spend the more money they will earn.

Nope! You are in an Economics Forum and should know that it is the velocity of money (turnover) that is key to a health economy.

It is pure common-sense that if the Minimum Wage is increased, those workers below the poverty threshold (which is close to 14 million people in the US) will spend the money and thus boost state economies. And since sales-taxation also generates state-revenues the extra money lowers state indebtedness - which is also an acute problem in the US.

There is nothing-but-good about raising the Minimum Wage to $17/20 an hour. Economy turnover (Supply&Demand) will do its part to offset operating costs.

It's win-win all around ...
 
I vote 'no' in the closed poll without regard to circumstance.
 
All of this is entirely false. It ignores the reality that if businesses could simply lay people off or cut hours and achieve the same output then they already would have whether you raise the minimum wage or not. You need a certain amount of man power to run a business. You can't just arbitrarily change that because you feel like it.

While I cannot operate a store with fewer than one employee per every opening hours, I still can cut on opening hours. Likewise, if I planned on opening new shops, the fact that the labor cost of a peculiar way to organize the production of my service would rise might tip the scale against the case for opening that shop. This isn't just a theoretical curiosity: people really do open businesses to turn a buck and anyone trained in management knows how to compute the net present value of hypothetical flows of income and expenditures. The crude fact of the matter is that a rising price tag for labor that is not matched by an increased production capacity makes using this labor less profitable. That has to be factored in some way by people who obviously are looking for opportunities to earn money.

That some people will simply eat up their profit margins to cope with the increased labor cost seems reasonable. Some reasons might include the one you mention (a floor for maintained activity), or even adjustment costs that make changing how a business operates too costly to incur. However, it is not clear that this ought to be the case in every case, let alone in a majority of cases. Even combining your claim with the adjustment cost mechanism I pointed out above, there remains the question of how strong it can be thought to be. That is an empirical question and Card's 1990 paper certainly allow for that possibility. While it seems a little far fetched to me to just assume away potential bad consequences that seem so obviously tied to a policy, we do not have to do any such thing. Just use the cities that already enforced a very substantial hike as a treatment group and use a difference-in-differences estimator to capture the effect on hours worked, job creation, job destruction, etc.

The profit margin for many corporations easily allows for them to give the raise in salary without increasing prices.

That sounds like a presumption to me, but let's assume in good faith you're not just throwing this around. Where did you get that information? Even crude approximations of how businesses operate require knowing quite a bit of detail from their financial statements. My statements above are all conditional, or at least are intended to be taken as conditional. I have no precise idea what every single business, or even what a substantial fraction of them, can or cannot do.

The bottom line is this. We have increased the Federal Minimum wage more than twenty different times since the 1920's and yet here we are with one of the strongest economies on earth and pretty close to full employment. If raising these wages was bad for the economy then why does it keep getting better even after all those increases over the decades.

I don't think anybody says it will bring the whole country to a halt. To the extent anyone does, let me express my doubts. However, given these events, we can statistically look into the issue and answer the aforementioned issue of having to compare many mechanisms that operate at once, often in different directions. Most of what I know in economic theory would suggest it will have a depressing effect and that includes Morgenstein-Pissarides types of model that involve search and matching (i.e., here, transactions are costly and wages are negotiated depending on negotiation powers between firms and employees). It is not surprising: you're making the price tag heftier, but you don't change production capacity. There are exceptions, however. If you make sufficiently constrained choices, the type of dynamic you have in mind might just make sense. If I have to make a binary choice between not having a business and having a slightly less lucrative business, I might just eat my profit margin and shut up. You can make this story more complicated, but anything resembling this is going to say the minimum wage will just shift resources from business owners to employees.
 
Government price controls are always a bad thing.
I am also against price controls but Novalin N at Vons is $196.00 and $24.88 at Walmart, something needs to be done.
 
Nope! You are in an Economics Forum and should know that it is the velocity of money (turnover) that is key to a health economy.

I have absolutely no idea how you got to that conclusion, especially since I never heard about this during my bachelor degree, my master's degree and all of my first year's Ph.D. courses in economics. Neither have I read about it in any of the few hundred articles I read nor have I heard it during seminars. My knowledge might be limited as I am still young and have much more reading and studying to do, but I am aware that many of our best macroeconomic models of business cycles (for example, see Phaneuf and Victor (2018)), in the sense of their ability to match empirical facts, do not even include money explicitly. People usually introduce money in friction-ridden models when they study specifically monetary phenomenon and, otherwise, it is usually treated as a cumbersome distraction. Maybe you know something that I do not know.

The point is not to boast about my credentials, but to point out how far and wide someone could dig into economics and not run into what you seem to treat as a rudimentary fact.

It is pure common-sense that if the Minimum Wage is increased, those workers below the poverty threshold (which is close to 14 million people in the US) will spend the money and thus boost state economies. And since sales-taxation also generates state-revenues the extra money lowers state indebtedness - which is also an acute problem in the US.

Actually, this is false in all of the macroeconomic models I have thus far studied. Those include medium-scale New Keynesian models that introduce pricing inefficiencies, by the way. Given the diversity of theoretical constructions that lead to the kind of predictions made by people on the right, I think it is hard-pressed to call your position "pure common sense" and treat their position(s) as a sign of ignorance. For one thing, these models enforce accounting identities that prevent nonsense from occurring, such as argument which create resources out of thin air, in ways that the unfettered thought experiments in your head cannot. But, at the very least, it shows the idea isn't nonsense and that the obviousness of the veracity of your claim is an exaggeration.

Instead of trying to pull ranks from the credentials you do not possess, maybe you should seek to substantiate your claims.
 
One of the few true absolutes is that people who think in absolutes are almost always wrong.

As a rule of thumb, it is better to treat statements with some degree of charity when reading them.

No real set is completely homogeneous, so it is always true that you will find discrepancies that justify rejecting the rule, no matter how close to 100% true it might be. Likewise, the statement said that it's always bad. Depending on how you define bad and where you place the bar, you can accept or reject anything and everything you please.

I understand the statement made by Mycroft was unsubstantiated, but it is no reason to take the most stupid interpretation you can find and bash this one.
 
It is pure common-sense that if the Minimum Wage is increased, those workers below the poverty threshold (which is close to 14 million people in the US) will spend the money and thus boost state economies..

perfect liberal illiteracy! 1) it has no affect on velocity since the previous owners of the taxed money would have spent it too
2) it does not boost the economy since it interferes with the efficiency of the free market by letting some else spend the money you earned.

Now do you understand?
 
the minimum wage will just shift resources from business owners to employees.

And increase bankruptcies from say 10,000/month to 15,000 and ship even more jobs to China, and teach people you get ahead through govt violence rather than by being worth more, etc etc
 
If raising these wages was bad for the economy then why does it keep getting better even after all those increases over the decades.


how is losing 20 million jobs to China getting better? Trump got elected because wages were not getting better for the poor and middle class. I wonder from what planet this liberal is writing?
 
I am also against price controls but Novalin N at Vons is $196.00 and $24.88 at Walmart, something needs to be done.

Americans are richest nation in human history because Republican capitalism has done a great deal about higher prices!! Now we need Republican capitalism in health care. Do you understand?
 
I have absolutely no idea how you got to that conclusion, especially since I never heard about this during my bachelor degree, my master's degree and all of my first year's Ph.D. courses in economics. .

are you bragging to us that you are proudly submitting to brainwashing in a libcommie monoculture??
 
I have absolutely no idea how you got to that conclusion, especially since I never heard about this during my bachelor degree, my master's degree and all of my first year's Ph.D. courses in economics.

Wow! Then what are you doing in an economics Debate Forum?!?

From here

What is the Velocity of Money?

The velocity of money is the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy. It is the number of times that money moves from one transaction to another. It also refers to how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. Simply put, it's the rate at which people spend money. The velocity of money is usually measured as a ratio of gross national product (GNP) to a country's total supply of money.

Velocity is important for measuring the rate at which money in circulation is used for purchasing goods and services, as this helps investors gauge how robust the economy is, and is a key input in the determination of an economy's inflation calculation.

Iow, how well or not the economy is growing and absorbing new-entries into the workforce. Without which there is constantly additional unemployment (as just happened in the Great Recession)!

Moving right along ...
 
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I am also against price controls but Novalin N at Vons is $196.00 and $24.88 at Walmart, something needs to be done.

Yes...something needs to be done...by you.

You should chose which price you want to pay...not the government.
 
Wow! Then what are you doing in an economics Debate Forum?!?

First of all, what are you doing trying to insult me? It is uncalled for and I am getting more than fed up with your arrogance.

Second of all, read my comment carefully. I never said that I didn't know what was the velocity of money. I am just curious as to what kind of model and research you are referring to when you say it is important because, as far as I know, it is not.
 
are you bragging to us that you are proudly submitting to brainwashing in a libcommie monoculture??

Have you ever been to the economics department of a business school? The type of students and professors there do not have much patience for politically correct nonsense, nor for socialist propaganda. In fact, one of my professors even went on a 30 minutes rant about the stupidity of left-leaning groups in the university. He manages a research group and he is always happy when he can get funds for the private sector. However, the administration sometimes forces him to hire (in his own words) "useless tools from the sociology departments on account that money from the private sector is poo." If there is a place where you can actually find conservatives or libertarians in academia, it's within the economics department and in business schools.

I talk to people outside of the department, I studied outside the department, I worked outside the department and I read books from various sources. Some of my favorite reads were from Thomas Sowell because of the details, clarity, and simplicity of his arguments.


Who are you to call into question my intellectual integrity? I don't like echo chambers, so I take great pain not to build one for myself.
 
Quoting me: the minimum wage will just shift resources from business owners to employees.

And increase bankruptcies from say 10,000/month to 15,000 and ship even more jobs to China, and teach people you get ahead through govt violence rather than by being worth more, etc etc

That is a nicely doctored quotation. I was expressing the views of someone else in my own words, giving them a chance to respond if I misunderstood their intention.
 
Wow! Then what are you doing in an economics Debate Forum?!?

First of all, what are you doing trying to insult me? It is uncalled for and I am getting more than fed up with your arrogance. You have done nothing but make sweeping claims and providing insults or comments regarding their obvious value as a substitute for any substantive argument to defend them.

Second of all, read my comment carefully. I never said that I didn't know what was the velocity of money. I am just curious as to what kind of model and research you are referring to when you say it is important.

Currently, the consensus in the business cycle is on the use of 3 types of shocks: shocks to technological progress, shocks to the marginal efficiency of the investment technology, and investment specific shocks. We usually also use monetary shocks, but they account for a ludicrously small amount of variance, regardless of how you run the estimation. There also are questions as to whether delayed values (news shock) matter. Other sources of shocks like preference shocks tend to be introduced to allow for Bayesian statistics to apply. Intuitively, it breaks down the theoretical requirement for exact cross-equation restrictions to hold. However, they are structurally dubious in the Chari, Kehoe and McGratten (2009) sense that you can play with the equations and give them different names, unlike the other 3 above.

Even in a monetary model, I fail to see how you're going to tie the velocity of money to human choices, except as a consequence thereof. There is nothing fundamental about money moving around faster, though there might be something fundamental about the events that cause variations in how fast money moves around. Hence my question: what the hell are you talking about?
 
Some of my favorite reads were from Thomas Sowell because of the details, clarity, and simplicity of his arguments.

why not cut the BS. Sowell thinks liberals are mere prejudiced idiots, do you agree?
 
. Hence my question: what the hell are you talking about?

He had no idea what he was talking about. To him money velocity is good merely because money is changing hands. Provide welfare or min wages, money changes hands(velocity), and the economy is improving.
 
why not cut the BS. Sowell thinks liberals are mere prejudiced idiots, do you agree?

Sowell certainly thinks that many liberals are prejudiced idiots, but some lines in "The Vision of the Anointed" suggests he probably wouldn't use as broad a brush as you are using here. He pointed out that part of the tragic vision imply we should expect reasonable people to disagree even when the same set of facts comes to bear on the same question, especially if the matter is complicated. Liberals and conservatives put different weights on different aspects of an issue; I don't see any compelling reason why smart people would all fall on one side or the other.

The problem isn't that someone insists on putting more weight on caring for others than on what Haidt calls "fairness as proportionality." It is to be expected, in fact, that some inevitably will. The real issue is when either type of person find reasons to insulate themselves from the feedback reality and other people might give them. If you allow me to paraphrase him in my own clumsy way, a less-than-perfect plan that allows for feedback might end up being much more useful than a better-structured plan which is too rigid for reality to budge it ever so slightly. It is happenstance, I believe, that makes radicals on the left today so troublesome. The more general feature isn't their moral or political preferences, but the deafness of their attitude.

I do think that some liberals are prejudiced, that others still are idiots, even though I generally lean to the left and not the right. I just happen to have learned enough from my own mistake to not write off things about which conservatives care just because an average Joe can't articulate good reasons for them. While I do fall short of the ideal and still get mad at people some of the time, I do understand that this isn't the best things to do. Righteous indignation never helped anyone. All it does is to ask for the whole world to "look at me" and take notice of how much "I care" because I get infuriated by little things.
 
He had no idea what he was talking about. To him money velocity is good merely because money is changing hands. Provide welfare or min wages, money changes hands(velocity), and the economy is improving.

That was my impression, but I didn't want to put words in his mouth.
 
I don't see any compelling reason why smart people would all fall on one side or the other.

.

Sowell thinks liberals are idiots, if he is wrong about that on a significant issue please tell us which one.
 
The more general feature isn't their moral or political preferences, but the deafness of their attitude.

The left is deaf because it is based on pure ignorance. Dumb people cant understand reason so hate it. It makes them feel inferior. Also, its far more productive to point out their lowly IQ than their attitude. People are allowed attitudes but they are not allowed pure ignorance.
 
Sowell thinks liberals are idiots, if he is wrong about that on a significant issue please tell us which one.

My point was that Sowell doesn't think all liberals are idiots, though he seems to disagree with many liberals on a wide range of issues: the rule of law, judicial activism, certainly political correctness, welfare programs, sexual education in public schools, the value of marriage and family life, etc.

Disagreeing with someone, even when you think their claims are poorly structured, is different from considering they're stupid. He probably disagrees on virtually everything with, say, Paul Krugman, but it is very hard to make the case Paul Krugman is stupid. He was simply too successful at tackling rather thorny issues in economic theory to be considered a dim wit. His Nobel Prize was awarded to him alone for modernizing trade theory, a very complicated task when you're the first one to do it. I don't think if I asked Thomas Sowell if Krugman is stupid that he would tell me he is stupid. He might tell me he's wrong, stubborn or uninteresting and unoriginal when it comes to policy issues, but I don't think Sowell would say he is stupid. And if he did say or would say it, then Sowell is very wrong about that.

Smart people can make mistakes. It doesn't mean they can't run circles around you when dealing with complex problems.
 
Righteous indignation never helped anyone. All it does is to ask for the whole world to "look at me" and take notice of how much "I care" because I get infuriated by little things.

You're a psychologist too?? What about the righteous indignation of Jesus, Jefferson,Wm Buckley Jr., Milton Friedman?? Democrats turned socialist is a little thing??
 
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