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Oil crisis

anomaly

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I've recently read a very interesting article detailing the destruction the coming depletion of oil could have, and likely will have, upon the world we live in. Just thinking of all the things oil does for us, and imagining life without it, I pose two questions, one to my fellow anti-capitalists, the other to the capitalists.

To my comrades, do you think such a future, where poverty is rampant, automobiles are a luxury item, and houses can no longer heat themselves, may bring an end to capitalism?

To the capitalists, how do you propose to handle all these things sufficiently, especially with alternatve fuel possibilities looking grim?
 

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anomaly said:
To the capitalists, how do you propose to handle all these things sufficiently, especially with alternatve fuel possibilities looking grim?
I believe in the old saying "Where there is a will - there is a way".

If oil was to drop so low as that it could not handle it - bicycles, electric cars, corn, and vegetable oil prices would increase and come into higher demand. Capitolists would indeed cater to the populus and create or invent a solution to fit.

Other people would become rich and Exxon would hop aboard. It would mearly be a short term bump in the road.
 

shuamort

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Well, my partner drives a Ford Taurus that uses multi-fuels. Regular unleaded and the non-pollution E85 (otherwise known as Ethanol 85).


Ethanol
is a high octane, liquid, domestic and renewable fuel, produced by the fermentation of plant sugars. In the United States, ethanol is typically produced from corn and other grain products, although in the future it may be economically produced from other biomass resources such as agricultural and forestry wastes or specially grown energy crops.

E85 has an octane of approximately 105.
E85 sells for approximately the same price as unleaded gasoline.
Ethanol reduces the incidence of greenhouse gas emissions.
Ethanol is domestically produced and promotes energy independence.
Ethanol production increases the value of feed grains grown by farmers.
Ethanol is biodegradable and does not contaminate water.
Ethanol can be produced from a number of different feedstocks including paper and agricultural waste.


We hit the gas station yesterday and while the other people were filling up with regular unleaded 87 at $2.09 a gallon, we were filling up at $1.52.

It's not perfect, but all of the above things are much better!
 

anomaly

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shuamort said:
Well, my partner drives a Ford Taurus that uses multi-fuels. Regular unleaded and the non-pollution E85 (otherwise known as Ethanol 85).


Ethanol
is a high octane, liquid, domestic and renewable fuel, produced by the fermentation of plant sugars. In the United States, ethanol is typically produced from corn and other grain products, although in the future it may be economically produced from other biomass resources such as agricultural and forestry wastes or specially grown energy crops.

E85 has an octane of approximately 105.
E85 sells for approximately the same price as unleaded gasoline.
Ethanol reduces the incidence of greenhouse gas emissions.
Ethanol is domestically produced and promotes energy independence.
Ethanol production increases the value of feed grains grown by farmers.
Ethanol is biodegradable and does not contaminate water.
Ethanol can be produced from a number of different feedstocks including paper and agricultural waste.


We hit the gas station yesterday and while the other people were filling up with regular unleaded 87 at $2.09 a gallon, we were filling up at $1.52.

It's not perfect, but all of the above things are much better!
http://www.kunstler.com/

there's some pretty interesting stuff there, including the previously mentioned article I read

read and decide for yourself
 
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bellisaurius

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Actualy, the possibilties aren''t too grim, anomoly. We still have roughly a hundred more years of oil available (the easily accessible stuff), so there isn't an immediate issue.

Assuming science doesn't solve the problem in a hundred years, and come up with the next idea (PS: my guess for that idea would be solar power being used in electrolysis to make hydrogen, which would act as a "battery/power cell fuel" of sorts, thereby gaining the usefulness of gas, along with the availabilty of solar. Failing that, nuke power can perform the electrolytic action. BTW, currently most hydrogen is produced by snatching hydrogen off of fossil fuels. There much easier to remove than the ones attached in water), coal can be refined into fuel (as was done in germany when they lost the romanian oil fields). We have roughly 300 years of coal available, so that will bye that much more time. When that runs out, there is oil rich shale deposits (pricier to process than the coal, but hey, stop gap) which are essentially infinite to our energy uses.

All this is a bit pricier, but as long as enegy and manpower are available, its just a societal adjustment.
 

Arch Enemy

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bellisaurius said:
Actualy, the possibilties aren''t too grim, anomoly. We still have roughly a hundred more years of oil available (the easily accessible stuff), so there isn't an immediate issue.
I definitely don't think that we'll run out of oil any time soon, the main problem is the raising prices and how they'll affect us Americans, who use a Car everywhere we go.
I know a couple of people who've been living off of alternatives then what usual people use. Wind power for their houses, they say this actually works quite well and it's better than knowing your happiness is polluting the world. Buying Hybrid cars, though it still uses gas it takes a lot less amount and gets 60 miles to the gallon.
I can barely remember where I was, but it was either DC or Williamsburg, but there was a bus using BIO Energy, it didn't use gas.. I wasn't old enough to understand how it worked I was just impressed that it didn't need gas in order to move forward.

I think as new generations of people start realizing this ordeal for gas, the demand for hybrid cars will increase and it'll start to smooth out. The competition for hybrid cars will cause some nice low priced ones.

Americans need to quit complaining about this. Just look at Sweden.
 

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Free idea. Someone go patent it. Government mandated solar/roof tile system on all new south facing roofs. Electricity used soley to make hydrogen gas for hybrid cars. Government and utility incentives of course. Wonder how many barrels that would save? Keep the treehuggers happy also.
 

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Arch Enemy said:
I definitely don't think that we'll run out of oil any time soon, the main problem is the raising prices and how they'll affect us Americans, who use a Car everywhere we go.
Perhaps the USA will just invade another oil rich country?
 

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Arch Enemy said:
II think as new generations of people start realizing this ordeal for gas, the demand for hybrid cars will increase and it'll start to smooth out. The competition for hybrid cars will cause some nice low priced ones.
Good Lord I agree with Arch Enemy. Hell hath froze over.
 

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I just did research focusing on China, but the same applies to India. If the average Chinese citizen were to consume as much oil as the average American, the oil supply would diminish in our lifetimes. The standard of living in China and India is increasing and more of them are beginning to own cars. I believe right now 1/800 Chinese citizen owns a car. If it were to come close to American consumption of oil, the entire world would need to make sacrifices so that oil is used where it needs to be used (IE. Agriculture). American ingenuity has possibly failed us short term by not investing in hybrid cars because they are right now the best chance we have to stop oil shortages in the next 20-40 years. Hydrogen fuel cells (Most of America's alternative energy investments) are not very hopeful, especially considering battery technology has not improved much over the last 40 years, despite engineer's best efforts, and there doesn't seem to be a trend to improve it enough to allow fuel cell cars to be an option. Pure hydrogen burning cars are a better possibility, but they have HUGE safety hurdles to conquer and much money would be needed to convert gas stations to hydrogen pumping stations. It's hard to predict how well oil will hold up in the next 50 years, but if the standard of living continues to increase in highly populated countries, our American way of life will be threatened as we struggle to compete for energy resources.
 

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ok here we go. There obviously will be an oil crisis, and you could also guess that mankind won't bother to even think about it till to late. However the great thing about capitalism is that if you pay someone enough money they'll find a way round it. incentives to ingenuity sorta stuff. There will be a giant glitch but we've progressed enough in technology to counter the use of oil if we really wanted 2.
 

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matay_brit said:
ok here we go. There obviously will be an oil crisis, and you could also guess that mankind won't bother to even think about it till to late. However the great thing about capitalism is that if you pay someone enough money they'll find a way round it. incentives to ingenuity sorta stuff. There will be a giant glitch but we've progressed enough in technology to counter the use of oil if we really wanted 2.
As of yet, we really don't have enough technology to replace oil. Hydrogen fuel cells are too inefficient and bettery technology hasn't progressed much in the past 50 years, there's no reason to think it will progress enough in the future. Nuclear energy could replace some, but it's highly controversial. Parts of Europe seem to embrace wind power, but that only works for coastal regions. Right now, we need oil.
 

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I just cant way until the day cars can be hacked ;)



We are thinking about getting one of those energy efficient automobiles...

The thing is, they are ugly. ;)

I think there needs to be a trend in buying those automobiles, so the R&D money can go towards those, and maybe we can get something.


Andrew
 

SouthernDemocrat

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bellisaurius said:
Actualy, the possibilties aren''t too grim, anomoly. We still have roughly a hundred more years of oil available (the easily accessible stuff), so there isn't an immediate issue.

Assuming science doesn't solve the problem in a hundred years, and come up with the next idea (PS: my guess for that idea would be solar power being used in electrolysis to make hydrogen, which would act as a "battery/power cell fuel" of sorts, thereby gaining the usefulness of gas, along with the availabilty of solar. Failing that, nuke power can perform the electrolytic action. BTW, currently most hydrogen is produced by snatching hydrogen off of fossil fuels. There much easier to remove than the ones attached in water), coal can be refined into fuel (as was done in germany when they lost the romanian oil fields). We have roughly 300 years of coal available, so that will bye that much more time. When that runs out, there is oil rich shale deposits (pricier to process than the coal, but hey, stop gap) which are essentially infinite to our energy uses.

All this is a bit pricier, but as long as enegy and manpower are available, its just a societal adjustment.
I think the problem is not necessarily totally running out, but that once we have used 50% of the available oil reserves that are economically worth while to extract, that oil prices will skyrocket because oil production will no longer be able to consistently increase a the same rate of demand. The principle is called Hubert’s Curve if I am not mistaken. At any rate, its projected that within the next 5 to 10 years, we will have used up half of the oil that is economically worthwhile to extract, once we hit that point, there will still be plenty of oil left, but not enough to continue to fuel worldwide economic growth unless some other form of energy is found or invented. Basically, our entire economy is fueled on cheap energy, if energy is no longer cheap, well, you can pretty much kiss your standard of living goodbye.

I am optimistic in my thinking because I believe that if oil prices skyrocket to say $250 or more a barrel, that someone will invent another cheap form of energy to replace it. Surely if you pay someone enough, they will invent just about anything. However, it may well be foolish optimism. Some things are not possible with today’s knowledge and technology no matter how much money is up for grabs. For example, even if you offered an aerospace company 1 trillion dollars if they built a spaceship in less than 5 years to take man to Jupiter and back, it’s doubtful that anyone would be able to do it.
 
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Shye

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I still think we should have Hemp oil as an alternative for fossil fuel.
 

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Brazil uses ethanol for most of it's cars, from their Sugar canes. Countries that grow sugar canes should utilise this.
 

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galenrox said:
Yeah, we do it from corn here. It doesn't do that much though, since 85% ethanol still costs $2.25 a gallon.
We've got E-85 here and it's about 25-30% off the current price of gas. Regular gas is running at about $2.00 with E-85 at $1.50.
 

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galenrox said:
Yeah, we do it from corn here. It doesn't do that much though, since 85% ethanol still costs $2.25 a gallon.
I have a feeling $2.25 a gallon might start looking pretty nice if oil prices keep climbing.
 

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I have looked at the oil markets and I don't see the fundementals behind the price? There is not enough legitimate demand to make this price as high as it is. Yes China is demanding oil, and there is now a mild geo-political scare on oil, very mild. I think in year or so the price will come back down to at least $35/barrel IMO. The Nymex has had more money flow into its exchange in the last year than any other exchange in the US. More money competeing for the same ammount of supply equals raised prices. But it isn't all legitimate demand, 1/2 of it is hedge funds and speculators who don't take delevery on the products they hold futures and options on, which is what is heating up the price.


Dann
 

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I think oil will run out sooner than is predicted, there are inevitably going to some wars in the next years. Modern wars use up so much fuel.....
 

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If you Americans can get your Oil Shale developed into a full fledged economy you would have enough oil to supply the world for at least two centuries. And you would become the world's un-touchable economic powerhouse. I think you have a total of 68.78% of the worlds oil shale, which equates to more oil than was ever in the middle east and all that is left in Saudi oil reserves. for example theres 3 trillion barrels tucked away in Wisconsin in a 500 acre mine run.

Problem is it is very hard to develop and more research is needed to make it effective. But if it does become effective than the oil crisis goes away for a few hundred years. Also to the chagrin of many you become the worlds oil supplier and by defacto you dictate the worlds oil market and lots of scenarios come with that. I know the Europeans don't want to see a US that in all essence controls the world with it's grip on oil. And then you have a China that has to come and beg the US for oil contracts. Everyone would start niceing up to you real fast. There are infinite things that could happen if you develop into the most oil rich nation on earth. And it's coming closer and closer to being possible, keep an eye on that Sunoco oil shale test refinery in Oregon.
 

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well when you think of it, usa is only looking in one direction, money, while they are looking for money they are loosing it all, and more than they have, so why not use all this good schooling they got to find a way around oil, like the electric car, because all a oil fight will do is cause war, and im 15 and i know better than Bush, oil is not the end of the world, ever think of it that way?
 

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RomanianPride said:
well when you think of it, usa is only looking in one direction, money, while they are looking for money they are loosing it all, and more than they have, so why not use all this good schooling they got to find a way around oil, like the electric car, because all a oil fight will do is cause war, and im 15 and i know better than Bush, oil is not the end of the world, ever think of it that way?
And where, oh where, does your electricity come from? Oh that's right fossil fuels. Which (psst) are running out. Best thing to do is to build nuclear plants, but this has to be done ahead of time, since it takes massive amounts of oil to build.
 
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