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Obama: A year to Election Day, numbers good and bad

Misterveritis said:
Given that Presidents are not elected by popular vote what impact do you believe the shifts in the electoral college will have?
Click to expand...

All else being equal an improvement in a candidate's popular vote should improve his standing in the electoral college, and vice versa. For example, if a candidate managed to improve his overall standing by 1%, it will probably add about 1% to his vote count in the swing states that he needs to win the election. It's not a perfect barometer of electoral success, but it's a pretty good proxy.
 
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99percenter said:
It is relavant. We can spend half of what we do and still have a strong military.
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Well, maybe. Or maybe not. I suppose we could completely pull out of Europe. The Europeans deserve their fate. We could certainly pressure Japan to do more. We win our wars because we spend money on technologies and training that allow us to do so.

But we could pull out of the Middle East if we would only drill here in the US starting Monday of next week. We have lots of oil. We could also build 500 nuclear power plants across the US. If each one cost us four billion we would be well ahead. We could put the National Guard on our borders until such time as we have barriers.

Then we could cut our military budgets. Maybe.

We usually try to match our resources to our requirements.
 
Kandahar said:
All else being equal an improvement in a candidate's popular vote should improve his standing in the electoral college, and vice versa. For example, if a candidate managed to improve his overall standing by 1%, it will probably add about 1% to his vote count in the swing states that he needs to win the election. It's not a perfect barometer of electoral success, but it's a pretty good proxy.
Click to expand...
I can agree with your assessment. What impact do you believe the redistricting after the last census will have?
 
Misterveritis said:
How many months had job losses of 700,000 or more?
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Here are the seasonally adjusted numbers. Please note the credit markets were frozen in Obama's first year. The October results was 20 straight months growth in the private sector. Also please note the steady loss of jobs in the public sector - police, fire and school teachers. Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics



[TABLE="class: grid, width: 700"]
[TR]
[TD]Private
Sector
Jobs (Thous.)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Jan[/TD]
[TD]Feb[/TD]
[TD]Mar[/TD]
[TD]Apr[/TD]
[TD]May[/TD]
[TD]Jun[/TD]
[TD]Jul[/TD]
[TD]Aug[/TD]
[TD]Sep[/TD]
[TD]Oct[/TD]
[TD]Nov[/TD]
[TD]Dec[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]-841[/TD]
[TD]-721[/TD]
[TD]-787[/TD]
[TD]-773[/TD]
[TD]-326[/TD]
[TD]-438[/TD]
[TD]-287[/TD]
[TD]-215[/TD]
[TD]-213[/TD]
[TD]-250[/TD]
[TD]-34[/TD]
[TD]-102[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]-42[/TD]
[TD]-21[/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]229[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]93[/TD]
[TD]110[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[TD]261[/TD]
[TD]219[/TD]
[TD]241[/TD]
[TD]99[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]191[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Govenment
Sector
Jobs (Thous.)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Jan[/TD]
[TD]Feb[/TD]
[TD]Mar[/TD]
[TD]Apr[/TD]
[TD]May[/TD]
[TD]Jun[/TD]
[TD]Jul[/TD]
[TD]Aug[/TD]
[TD]Sep[/TD]
[TD]Oct[/TD]
[TD]Nov[/TD]
[TD]Dec[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]-5[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]-60[/TD]
[TD]-64[/TD]
[TD]-13[/TD]
[TD]-16[/TD]
[TD]-23[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]-21[/TD]
[TD]-28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]-14[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]410[/TD]
[TD]-257[/TD]
[TD]-142[/TD]
[TD]-169[/TD]
[TD]-138[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]-35[/TD]
[TD]-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]-26[/TD]
[TD]-26[/TD]
[TD]-25[/TD]
[TD]-24[/TD]
[TD]-46[/TD]
[TD]-55[/TD]
[TD]-46[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]-33[/TD]
[TD]-24[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
pbrauer said:
Here are the seasonally adjusted numbers. Please note the credit markets were frozen in Obama's first year. The October results was 20 straight months growth in the private sector. Also please note the steady loss of jobs in the public sector - police, fire and school teachers. Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Click to expand...

Okay. So in November 2008 BHO was elected president. President Bush was out of office in January. So during the Bush presidency how many months had job losses of 700,000 or more? Was it one?

I did find this. chart_job_losses.03.webp

It is from CNN so you may trust it. Here is the link.

Total 2008 job loss: 2.6 million - Jan. 9, 2009

According to CNN about 600,000 people lost their jobs in November and a small number in December.
 
Misterveritis said:
I can agree with your assessment. What impact do you believe the redistricting after the last census will have?
Click to expand...

Obama would have lost six electoral votes in 2008 if he had been using the 2012 map. People continue to leave the Rust Belt, and head south and west. The 2010 census will probably slightly help the Republican nominee, but it will only really have an impact if the election is very close. Furthermore, I think that any advantage generally only holds for the first election after the census, since the people migrating from one state to another don't necessarily have the same political views as the natives and they can make states more or less competitive.

The states that gained or lost electoral votes since last time are Arizona (+1), Florida (+2), Georgia (+1), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Louisiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), Missouri (-1), Nevada (+1), New Jersey (-1), New York (-2), Ohio (-2), Pennsylvania (-1), South Carolina (+1), Texas (+4), Utah (+1), Washington (+1). On the whole, I'd say it's clearly an advantage for the Republicans, at least in the short term.
 
Kandahar said:
Obama would have lost six electoral votes in 2008 if he had been using the 2012 map. People continue to leave the Rust Belt, and head south and west. The 2010 census will probably slightly help the Republican nominee, but it will only really have an impact if the election is very close. Furthermore, I think that any advantage generally only holds for the first election after the census, since the people migrating from one state to another don't necessarily have the same political views as the natives and they can make states more or less competitive.

The states that gained or lost electoral votes since last time are Arizona (+1), Florida (+2), Georgia (+1), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Louisiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), Missouri (-1), Nevada (+1), New Jersey (-1), New York (-2), Ohio (-2), Pennsylvania (-1), South Carolina (+1), Texas (+4), Utah (+1), Washington (+1). On the whole, I'd say it's clearly an advantage for the Republicans, at least in the short term.
Click to expand...
I agree with your assessment. I also believe the Republicans have a slight edge.
 
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pbrauer said:
View attachment 67118013

NBC poll: Despite national pessimism, Obama tops GOP foes - politics - Decision 2012 - msnbc.com :thumbs:
Click to expand...

I don't buy the polls this early because I have a lot more faith in the American people than you. I don't believe the majority in this country are so dumb as to vote for someone who has generated these kind of results.

25 million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)154.1 X 16.2% Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14.8 million unemployed PLUS Discouraged workers Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.2 million fewer jobs(bls.gov) Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.3 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site) Government - Historical Debt Outstanding – Annual
rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-44% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)
“Fast and Furious”, “Wide Receiver”
Solyndra, Fisker, and Crony Capitalism Jobs Panel Member Whose Solar Firm Won Loan Guarantees Raises 'Conflict Of Interest' Concerns | Fox News
Videos | Solyndra

Solyndra solar power company shuts down 15 months after Obama visit

The Tonopah Solar company in Harry Reid's Nevada is getting a $737 million loan from Obama's DOE.
The project will produce a 110 megawatt power system and employ 45 permanent workers.
That's costing us just $16 million per job.

One of the investment partners in this endeavor is Pacific Corporate Group (PCG).
The PCG executive director is Ron Pelosi who is the brother of Nancy's husband.
But there is nothing wrong here, is there?

U.S. Bridges, Roads Being Built by Chinese Firms | Video - ABC News
Stimulus failure
Review & Outlook:Why the Stimulus Failed - WSJ.com
 
Conservative said:
I don't buy the polls this early because I have a lot more faith in the American people than you. I don't believe the majority in this country are so dumb as to vote for someone who has generated these kind of results.

25 million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)154.1 X 16.2% Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14.8 million unemployed PLUS Discouraged workers Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.2 million fewer jobs(bls.gov) Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.3 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site) Government - Historical Debt Outstanding – Annual
rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-44% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)
“Fast and Furious”, “Wide Receiver”
Solyndra, Fisker, and Crony Capitalism Jobs Panel Member Whose Solar Firm Won Loan Guarantees Raises 'Conflict Of Interest' Concerns | Fox News
Videos | Solyndra

Solyndra solar power company shuts down 15 months after Obama visit

The Tonopah Solar company in Harry Reid's Nevada is getting a $737 million loan from Obama's DOE.
The project will produce a 110 megawatt power system and employ 45 permanent workers.
That's costing us just $16 million per job.

One of the investment partners in this endeavor is Pacific Corporate Group (PCG).
The PCG executive director is Ron Pelosi who is the brother of Nancy's husband.
But there is nothing wrong here, is there?

U.S. Bridges, Roads Being Built by Chinese Firms | Video - ABC News
Stimulus failure
Review & Outlook:Why the Stimulus Failed - WSJ.com
Click to expand...

Do you copy and paste that crap in all your posts? You're pathetic.
 
99percenter said:
Do you copy and paste that crap in all your posts? You're pathetic.
Click to expand...

Thanks, coming from you that is a badge of honor. Liberals simply don't like being challenged with actual verifiable data. ask yourself why not one liberal has ever refuted the data posted but instead do what you do, attack me personally? Pathetic are the leftwing loons that support Obama
 
pbrauer said:
Bain Capital employees, not Bain Capital.
Click to expand...

Unbelievable, guess that holds true of Obama taking in more Wall Street contributions than all the Republican candidates combined. Nothing going to change your mind regarding Obama. Your love and support for Obama is quite telling
 
Conservative said:
I don't buy the polls this early because I have a lot more faith in the American people than you. I don't believe the majority in this country are so dumb as to vote for someone who has generated these kind of results.

25 million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)154.1 X 16.2% Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14.8 million unemployed PLUS Discouraged workers Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.2 million fewer jobs(bls.gov) Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.3 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site) Government - Historical Debt Outstanding – Annual
rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-44% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)
“Fast and Furious”, “Wide Receiver”
Solyndra, Fisker, and Crony Capitalism Jobs Panel Member Whose Solar Firm Won Loan Guarantees Raises 'Conflict Of Interest' Concerns | Fox News
Videos | Solyndra

Solyndra solar power company shuts down 15 months after Obama visit

The Tonopah Solar company in Harry Reid's Nevada is getting a $737 million loan from Obama's DOE.
The project will produce a 110 megawatt power system and employ 45 permanent workers.
That's costing us just $16 million per job.

One of the investment partners in this endeavor is Pacific Corporate Group (PCG).
The PCG executive director is Ron Pelosi who is the brother of Nancy's husband.
But there is nothing wrong here, is there?

U.S. Bridges, Roads Being Built by Chinese Firms | Video - ABC News
Stimulus failure
Review & Outlook:Why the Stimulus Failed - WSJ.com
Click to expand...
I tell you what, Con, post this outside every polling place in America next November and see how far it gets you. You are incredible.
 
Conservative said:
Unbelievable, guess that holds true of Obama taking in more Wall Street contributions than all the Republican candidates combined. Nothing going to change your mind regarding Obama. Your love and support for Obama is quite telling
Click to expand...
Wall Street isn't dumb, Con, they give the most money to who they think will win.
 
pbrauer said:
I tell you what, Con, post this outside every polling place in America next November and see how far it gets you. You are incredible.
Click to expand...

Actual results never matter to leftwing ideologues whose vision for this country is a European socialist model. Most supporters are dependent on liberalism for their very existence and are nothing but leftwing nuts.
 
Conservative said:
Why would any good qualified candidate subject themselves to the abuse that he would get from liberals who would be out to destroy that candidate. The 24/7 media scrutiny today gives us less qualified candidates although I do agree with you, I really have no problem with Romney at all and would have no problem with him as the candidate. He would have my vote. I didn't vote for Obama and won't in 2012 but my vote won't really matter as I live in TX and Obama will lose TX by millions of votes.
Click to expand...

Please. The abuse heaped on Obama by conservatives, out to destroy him at all costs is just as bad. Look in your own neighborhood before throwing stones in others.
 
Conservative said:
With the Obama results doubt that it will matter. Only true leftwing ideologues are going to vote for Obama in 2012
Click to expand...

This is nothing but your wish... nothing more.
 
CaptainCourtesy said:
Please. The abuse heaped on Obama by conservatives, out to destroy him at all costs is just as bad. Look in your own neighborhood before throwing stones in others.
Click to expand...

Why the support for someone that has zero leadership skills, never held a real job, and has the results I have posted after three years in office? A good leader doesn't blame someone else, doesn't divide people, and doesn't demonize individual wealth creation. What is it about Obama that you support?
 
Conservative said:
Why the support for someone that has zero leadership skills, never held a real job, and has the results I have posted after three years in office? A good leader doesn't blame someone else, doesn't divide people, and doesn't demonize individual wealth creation. What is it about Obama that you support?
Click to expand...

Everything you just said can define most of the conservatives candidates to a tee. No leadership, divisive. etc... You're just being hypocritical when you attack one side for problems that are exhibited by both.

And my support for Obama is more based on the fact that as much of an idiot as he is, he is LESS of an idiot than most of the conservatives candidates. At least he seems to understand that economics is a two way street. The only conservative candidate worth anything is Romney, who, if he wins the nomination, has a good chance at getting my vote.
 
Conservative said:
My wish is for much better economic results but that isn't going to happen with a leftwing ideologue in the WH
Click to expand...

Your wish is a based on the fallacy that a rightwing ideologue would solve any of our economic problems.
 
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