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NYT: How Much Will the Planet Warm if Carbon Dioxide Levels Double?
For more than 40 years, scientists have expressed the answer as a range of possible temperature increases, between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, that will result from carbon dioxide levels doubling from preindustrial times. Now, a team of researchers has sharply narrowed the range of temperatures, tightening it to between 2.6 and 4.1 degrees Celsius.
This paper cuts the uncertainty in half. The previous likely increase was 1.5C to 4.5C, or a range of 3C total; the paper narrows that to a 1.5C range.
The paper combines the instrumental temperature record, satellite observations, and proxies to design better analysis and projections of the likely temperature increases.
Direct link to the study in question:
Reviews of Geophysics: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence
For more than 40 years, scientists have expressed the answer as a range of possible temperature increases, between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, that will result from carbon dioxide levels doubling from preindustrial times. Now, a team of researchers has sharply narrowed the range of temperatures, tightening it to between 2.6 and 4.1 degrees Celsius.
This paper cuts the uncertainty in half. The previous likely increase was 1.5C to 4.5C, or a range of 3C total; the paper narrows that to a 1.5C range.
The paper combines the instrumental temperature record, satellite observations, and proxies to design better analysis and projections of the likely temperature increases.
Direct link to the study in question:
Reviews of Geophysics: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence