Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

[Jack Fabulous]

I think wages have offset price increases.
But it’s the same as in the early 1980s. Inflation came down to 4% but prices since Reagan was elected rose by over 20%.

The difference is that we didn’t experience a recession now, unlike in the early 80s.

We were well into recession by the time Reagan took office. The boo

You sure about that?

'Cause... you shouldn't be.

Let's look at wage growth and inflation. You'll notice there were years of wages beating inflation before 3/2021, which is when inflation started to outpace wages.

Note: The most recent wage data is from March, meaning we're missing 4 months of data, meaning the numbers I'm about to give understate the situation.

If we include the period at the start of the pandemic, then wages outpaced inflation by 19%.

If we pick the time when inflation first outpaced wages (3/2021) -- which is reasonable anyway, as 2020's statistics were certainly thrown off by the pandemic -- then wages are only under by 12%. And again, that's excluding the 4 most recent months, meaning the gap is probably more like 4-5% now.


lol, no, not even close. More like months.

Wages have not gone up over 20% since 2021. Trying to claim they have is laughable.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Hey, remember all of those jobs y’all said your grandpa created last year? Turns out a whole bunch of them were an illusion. It’s now official, confirmed by what a few of us suspected:

Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported.

www.cnbc.com

Markets up. Rate cut anticipated for September. Exactly what higher rates were meant to do to lower inflation. You think the malignant narcissist scumbag piece of shit liar grifter rapist and seditionist and his tariffs will help?

 

[multivita-man]

Notice that every Biden revision is always down. Paint a rosy picture but fail to deliver. That's what Democrats are all about.

Not so. Some sectors were revised up, but the overall picture for the preceding 12 months was revised down, which I guess means that they're not cooking the books, after all.

 

[Tettsuo]

I remember the 80's very well. The lie being pushed is the revisionist BS that you are trying to push.

It worked very well.

You're right. It did work very well. It worked at concentrating the money at the top and wrecking the poor and middle class in the process.

 

[Visbek]

Wages have not gone up over 20% since 2021. Trying to claim they have is laughable.

Not as laughable as your response.

I already showed you the data. Inflation outpaced wages for much of 2021 and 2022 -- and wages started to outpace inflation in February 2023. Since then, purchasing power has mostly been restored. That's entirely typical for periods of moderate inflation.

Let me know when you care more about facts than vibes.

 

[Ahlevah]

Stating facts doesn't "sugarcoat" anything.

If you want to state a fact, repeat after me: California sucks!

And so did SF. What's your point?

Normally, it would be hard to screw up a city like San Francisco, with its unique beauty, geography, civic pride, history, etc. Democrats figured out a way to do it.

"San Francisco" is in California. It's not the same thing as California.

Really? Well, I thought about picking on Weed or Happy Camp, but all of my favorite Democrats to pick on—Governor Brylcreem, Madame Speaker, Mrs. Cackles—are from the Bay Area.

So, when I write that "San Francisco's population is growing," that's because... SF's population is growing. What a concept.

A lot of them are immigrants, especially ethnic Chinese, who are clueless when it comes to the politics of the city. They’ll eventually figure it out.

CA's unemployment rate is a whopping... 5.2%. That's normal employment, by the way. The gap between CA and national was actually much bigger after past recessions. E.g. it was nearly 2.5% higher in 1992 and early 2010.

So high unemployment is normal for California. Gotcha!

No, it's dropping because... crime rates are dropping. You can't refuse to report homicides, which are down 32% for the first 6 months of 2024 compared to 2023.

MSN

So homicide is down, but property crimes like shoplifting are up? Correct?

Stop the bullshit. SF has its challenges, like every other city, but is nowhere near as bad as you wish.

“Challenges”? Is that what you call it? Yeah, I would say so.

 

[Taylor]

Where are you getting 30%? The article states 0.5%.

From https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm

"Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus one-tenth of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an adjustment to March 2024 total nonfarm employment of -818,000 (-0.5 percent)."

30% for the time period. 0.5 is in relation to the total employment number.

"As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported"

 

[Ahlevah]

Markets up. Rate cut anticipated for September. Exactly what higher rates were meant to do to lower inflation.

Of course, the Fed will never tell you this publicly, but the idea is to dampen economic activity by increasing slack in the labor market. One of the best indicators of a coming recession is a fed rate cut, especially one following an inverted yield curve. This tightening cycle was one of the steepest in history, taking the fed funds rate from nothing to 5.5%.

 

[Jack Fabulous]

You're right. It did work very well. It worked at concentrating the money at the top and wrecking the poor and middle class in the process.

I was poor and then middle class.

Your revisionism isn't working.

 

[Jack Fabulous]

Not as laughable as your response.

I already showed you the data. Inflation outpaced wages for much of 2021 and 2022 -- and wages started to outpace inflation in February 2023. Since then, purchasing power has mostly been restored. That's entirely typical for periods of moderate inflation.

Let me know when you care more about facts than vibes.

You showed me a highly suspicious graph.

That's not "data".

 

[MTAtech]

We were well into recession by the time Reagan took office. The boo
....

Yes, the Fed raised interest rates to double digits to rein in entrenched inflation. That created the recession.

 

[Amelia]

For anyone with credit card debt paying 23% or an auto loan at 13%, a quarter point cut in the fed funds rate won’t make much difference. It won’t do anything for people with variable mortgages like HELOCs either, which are typically tied to the prime rate, currently 8.50%. And by the time the Fed begins an interest rate cutting cycle, especially after an extended period with an inverted yield curve, a recession is pretty much baked into the cards. Members of the Kamala Klub get annoyed when I point that out, but facts are facts. Maybe this time will be different, though. One can only hope.

Would definitely have been nicer if the job numbers had been counted accurately last year, so we could have had a better rate cut by now.

 

[Tettsuo]

I was poor and then middle class.

Your revisionism isn't working.

LOL... the only revisionism is being pushed by Conservatives.

5 Reasons Why Supply-Side Economics Does Not Work

1. Tax Cuts Don’t Create More Jobs​

If companies are taxed less, they’ll use their excess savings to employ more staff, supply-siders argue. The problem is that there isn’t a lot of evidence to back that up. From 1982 to 1989, when the United States was governed by Reagan and taxes were cut substantially, the labor force didn’t grow anymore than previously.

2. Supply-Side Policies Weakened Investment​

Data supporting the popular opinion that lower taxes on the rich spur more investment is also hard to come by. In fact, the Center for American Progress, citing figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, said that average annual growth in nonresidential fixed investment was significantly higher in the non-supply-side 1990s than in the Reagan and Bush decades.
Ironically, in the 1990s, the tax rate for higher earners was raised.

3. Supply-Side Economics Is Not Synonymous With Productivity Growth​

...quickly proved that this statement isn’t based on factual data and that productivity growth actually had been in decline since World War II. According to Roubini, the annual growth rate of productivity hovered around 1.1% from 1973 to 1997 and didn’t change course during the 1980s.

4. Tax Cuts Don’t Spur Stronger Economic Growth​

All of the above serves as a reminder that supply-side economics doesn’t always achieve what its advocates say it does and is by no means a guarantee for economic growth. Often, supply-siders point to the 1980s as evidence that these policies engineer economic turnarounds. However, as Roubini points out, the pickup in growth exhibited from 1983 to 1989 came after a severe recession and was nothing out of the ordinary.

More evidence that traditional supply-side policies don’t lift economies was discovered in Kansas. In 2012 and 2013, lawmakers there cut the top rate of the state’s income tax by almost 30% and the tax rate on certain business profits to zero in a desperate bid to energize the local economy. That experiment lasted about five years and didn’t go well, with Kansas’ economy underperforming most neighboring states and the rest of the nation during that period.

5. Tax Cuts Don’t Pay for Themselves​

In fact, data shows that budget deficits exploded during Reagan’s era of tax cuts. According to the New York University Stern School of Business, the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio rose to 50.6% in 1992 from 26.1% in 1979.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) similarly shot down talk of tax cuts paying for themselves. Based on its estimates, for each dollar of income tax cuts, only 17 cents will be recovered from greater spending.

 

[MTAtech]

Would definitely have been nicer if the job numbers had been counted accurately last year, so we could have had a better rate cut by now.

“We're not sweating this report,” wrote Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni, who added the revision is largely “old news” considering it tracks employment data from several months ago.

 

[Ahlevah]

M

Would definitely have been nicer if the job numbers had been counted accurately last year, so we could have had a better rate cut by now.

The Fed’s been focused on getting inflation down. Even with unemployment trending up from 3.4% to 4.3% over the last year, it hasn’t budged on cuts. So I’m not sure how much difference it would have made. However, with the latest inflation data this labor revision provides more ammunition to Fed doves to cut.

 

[Visbek]

If you want to state a fact, repeat after me: California sucks!

Sigh.

Normally, it would be hard to screw up a city like San Francisco, with its unique beauty, geography, civic pride, history, etc. Democrats figured out a way to do it.

Sounds like you're mad that you can't afford to live there.

The biggest "screw up" is that SF is anti-development. On one hand, that partially preserves the character of its neighborhoods; but it also drives up real estate prices, and results in homelessness.

Most of what you believe is at best exaggerations, at worst right-wing fever dreams with little connection to reality.

Really? Well, I thought about picking on Weed or Happy Camp, but all of my favorite Democrats to pick on—Governor Brylcreem, Madame Speaker, Mrs. Cackles—are from the Bay Area.

Way to seize the high ground.

A lot of them are immigrants, especially ethnic Chinese, who are clueless when it comes to the politics of the city. They’ll eventually figure it out.

Well that's not at all condescending. And I'm sure it is thoroughly researched -- just kidding, I'm sure you just pulled that claim out of thin air.

So high unemployment is normal for California. Gotcha!

Sigh.

So homicide is down, but property crimes like shoplifting are up? Correct?

Nope. Wrong.

For January through August, 2024 compared to 2023:
• Homicide now down 40%
• Rape down 17%
• Robbery down 20%
• Burglary down 13%
• Motor vehicle theft down 19%
• Larceny theft down 43%

Crime Dashboard | San Francisco Police Department

www.sanfranciscopolice.org

You couldn't bother to spend 30 seconds looking it up? I'm shocked. Shocked and stunned.

It's also hilarious that your first impulse was "crime is going down because they're not reporting theft!" followed minutes later by "Theft is up, right? Right?!?"

“Challenges”? Is that what you call it?

Yup.

By the way, anyone who knows SF well knows that the Tenderloin is a small area, which has always been a high crime section of town.

And of course, any sane person should know that homelesness is a result of escalating housing costs -- and has been a major issue all across the Bay Area for decades. In many ways, homelessness is not much worse than in the past; it's just easier for right wingers to exploit images of it in bad faith... while not bothering to lift a finger to help anyone.

So again, spare us all your biased nonsense. It has no connection to the reality of life in SF.

 

[Visbek]

You showed me a highly suspicious graph.

No, there is nothing "suspicious" about it. You just don't like what it is saying.

Nor is it lost on anyone that you haven't cited a single scrap of data to back up your claims.

 

[Taylor]

LOL... the only revisionism is being pushed by Conservatives.

5 Reasons Why Supply-Side Economics Does Not Work


If companies are taxed less, they’ll use their excess savings to employ more staff, supply-siders argue. The problem is that there isn’t a lot of evidence to back that up. From 1982 to 1989, when the United States was governed by Reagan and taxes were cut substantially, the labor force didn’t grow anymore than previously.

Data supporting the popular opinion that lower taxes on the rich spur more investment is also hard to come by. In fact, the Center for American Progress, citing figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, said that average annual growth in nonresidential fixed investment was significantly higher in the non-supply-side 1990s than in the Reagan and Bush decades.
Ironically, in the 1990s, the tax rate for higher earners was raised.

...quickly proved that this statement isn’t based on factual data and that productivity growth actually had been in decline since World War II. According to Roubini, the annual growth rate of productivity hovered around 1.1% from 1973 to 1997 and didn’t change course during the 1980s.

All of the above serves as a reminder that supply-side economics doesn’t always achieve what its advocates say it does and is by no means a guarantee for economic growth. Often, supply-siders point to the 1980s as evidence that these policies engineer economic turnarounds. However, as Roubini points out, the pickup in growth exhibited from 1983 to 1989 came after a severe recession and was nothing out of the ordinary.

More evidence that traditional supply-side policies don’t lift economies was discovered in Kansas. In 2012 and 2013, lawmakers there cut the top rate of the state’s income tax by almost 30% and the tax rate on certain business profits to zero in a desperate bid to energize the local economy. That experiment lasted about five years and didn’t go well, with Kansas’ economy underperforming most neighboring states and the rest of the nation during that period.

In fact, data shows that budget deficits exploded during Reagan’s era of tax cuts. According to the New York University Stern School of Business, the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio rose to 50.6% in 1992 from 26.1% in 1979.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) similarly shot down talk of tax cuts paying for themselves. Based on its estimates, for each dollar of income tax cuts, only 17 cents will be recovered from greater spending.

Lol.

 

[multivita-man]

We still have non-farm payrolls holding steady at 158.72 (or so) million. The trend line is starting to bend toward slower increases, but it's still moving in the right direction. The consumer's softening and fears potential turmoil in the jobs markets and economy, but most people are able to keep their jobs. I think the good thing about today's downward revision is that this makes the case for a Fed rate cut in September. If the Fed doesn't cut, that's a mistake, IMO. Fed inaction would be courting a recession.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm

View the number of nonfarm employees in the U.S., who account for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to GDP.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[Ahlevah]

Nope. Wrong.

For January through August, 2024 compared to 2023:
• Homicide now down 40%
• Rape down 17%
• Robbery down 20%
• Burglary down 13%
• Motor vehicle theft down 19%
• Larceny theft down 43%

Crime Dashboard | San Francisco Police Department

www.sanfranciscopolice.org

You couldn't bother to spend 30 seconds looking it up? I'm shocked. Shocked and stunned.

Well, I hope crime is down—just so it doesn’t take police three hours to show up to a business burglary because it “isn’t a high enough priority”:



And you need to get the good news out to the 25-year owner of the last Denny’s in the city:

AN FRANCISCO (TND) — The last remaining Denny’s restaurant in San Francisco closed earlier this month due to high operating costs brought on by crime, according to a report by the San Francisco Gate .

The former owner of the restaurant, Chris Haque, told the outlet he closed his diner on Aug. 1 after nearly 25 years of business. The location is listed as permanently closed on Google.

Last San Francisco Denny's closes due to crime, 'tremendous' business costs, report says

The former owner of the restaurant said it operated for nearly 25 years.

wgme.com

And let the mayor know, too so she doesn’t need to institute any more curfews to combat open-air drug markets, a requirement in every low-crime city :

San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors voted unanimously on Tuesday to approve a resolution that would require food and retail stores in the Tenderloin to close between midnight and 5 a.m. as part of Mayor London Breed’s effort to crack down on open-air drug markets in the neighborhood.

SF Supervisors Approve Midnight Curfew for Tenderloin Food, Retail Shops | KQED

According to San Francisco Mayor London Breed’s proposal, the stores and their lights provide nighttime gathering places for drug dealers and users.

www.kqed.org

Apparently, San Francisco is operating under the theory that if drug dealers can’t get their Pepsi and Doritos to satisfy their midnight munchies they’ll move somewhere else.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Psst. There was a global pandemic in there somewhere.

uh-huh, Joe dealt with it too...

 

[Gimmesometruth]

I hope crime is down

even after the data, you don't know.

for a guy that makes a living off of analyzing data....

 

[Ahlevah]

Sounds like you're mad that you can't afford to live there.

Yeah, I’m just dying to spend millions on a San Francisco townhouse just so I can trip over homeless people on the way to my mailbox, or wake up one morning and find a tent blocking my driveway.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Wages have not gone up

wage gains have outstripped inflation since the middle of last years, with the 2 lowest quintiles seeing the largest gains.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Yeah, I’m just dying to spend millions on a San Francisco townhouse just so I can trip over homeless people on the way to my mailbox, or wake up one morning and find a tent blocking my driveway.

have you ever lived downtown in any of the major US cities?