New York following same trajectory as South Africa

[Luce]

I'm looking at this on a state-by-state basis since omicron slammed into a very specific region (the winter belt) first. So yes, we're going to see cases and deaths rising and continuing nationally, perhaps well into March. But the point is that omicron follows a very specific and repeatable behavior, as seen in South Africa, UK, and now in multiple states in the winter belt. I'm fixating on New York because the website for their health department provides the most useful and up-to-date statistics, though we can see the top of the peak of cases per state using your source too. Of course deaths will lag for a few more weeks.

Edit: of course I don't mean that the pandemic will end in March; just this particular wave.

You have a point. I have just become cautious about being optimistic.

 

[Luce]

So yes. I knew mentioning natural immunity would be a trigger so you’ll have to forgive me

Your posts read like a spoof on Joe Rogan.

 

[Monica33]

There never was a Moronic threat -- from the first two cases in Botswana and a double handful following from South Africa , every report has indicated severity is on a par with the common cold .

Exactly as viruses have historically behaved when mutating -- infectiousness more rapid with with new variants but a sharp fall in severity of the illness and outcomes .


Another scam for the Gullible Sheeple to panic about but this time the GAME IS UP .

The only question is whether the Nut Jobs have a new game to scare the Sheeple with or whether the 'White Hats ' are ready to lock up the lying and corrupt bastards .

A few public executions would not go amiss after the relevant court action .

 

[BirdinHand]

You have a point. I have just become cautious about being optimistic.

If the cycles hold, we will have maybe one more small wave in the northeast before spring/summer…case numbers will drop, and then we may see another spike heading into the fall/winter again next year. (Barring any unexpected new variant that might pop up)

Hopefully, by then we can have better testing (more at home testing readily available) and therapeutics more widely available...and will have better guidance around how long people need to be out of work, etc (especially if they are not symptomatic).

 

[bomberfox]

I addressed this already. It's a moot point if the mildness is negated by the far larger population it's able to reach, thus killing even more people.

Not to mention the more it infects, the more likely it is to mutate.

 

[Cardinal]

Why is it nonsense?

If you want to repeat the same arguments and counterarguments like two ghosts trapped in eternal battle with each other, then I suggest you go back to the beginning of the thread and reread our responses to each other forever.

 

[Cardinal]

You have a point. I have just become cautious about being optimistic.

Optimistic arguments have been used in bad faith countless times on this subject, so I get it.

 

[ApersonLIKEallOFyou]

If you want to repeat the same arguments and counterarguments like two ghosts trapped in eternal battle with each other, then I suggest you go back to the beginning of the thread and reread our responses to each other forever.

Perhaps you have me confused now. Are you saying natural immunity is not a thing?

 

[CaughtInThe]

There never was a Moronic threat -- from the first two cases in Botswana and a double handful following from South Africa , every report has indicated severity is on a par with the common cold .

Exactly as viruses have historically behaved when mutating -- infectiousness more rapid with with new variants but a sharp fall in severity of the illness and outcomes .


Another scam for the Gullible Sheeple to panic about but this time the GAME IS UP .

The only question is whether the Nut Jobs have a new game to scare the Sheeple with or whether the 'White Hats ' are ready to lock up the lying and corrupt bastards .

A few public executions would not go amiss after the relevant court action .

you are literally the person who passes on the misinformation that leads to more humans dying and pandemics stretching out.

congrats if that was your goal.

 

[ApersonLIKEallOFyou]

Your posts read like a spoof on Joe Rogan.

Are you suggesting natural immunity is not a thing?

 

[Cardinal]

Are you suggesting natural immunity is not a thing?

How would you prefer to get your immunity?

a) Vaccination, or
b) Several weeks of horrible illness or, worse, a month in a hospital bed (assuming you survive), and possible loss of taste and smell, and possible long term organ damage.

Both roads lead to immunity. Which one sounds more appealing to you?

Based on your position, I expect you to burn 600 calories avoiding answering the question directly.

 

[ElChupacabra]

New York, one of the first states to be hit by Omicron in early December, is clearly following the South Africa model. The cases were “straight up and straight down.” Also following this trajectory was the UK, Massachusetts, and now, it would appear, my own state (also one of the first hit), where the cases are already beginning to fall. It looks like in a couple weeks I can return to the gym (knocks on wood).

Covid cases in New York were nearly an even mix of Delta and Omicron.

Now it’s everybody else’s turn in the barrel.

View attachment 67370276
View attachment 67370277

COVID-19 Breakthrough Data

Cases and hospitalizations by vaccination status

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

Massachusetts 'Very Much On The Back Side' Of Omicron Surge, Baker Says

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said Tuesday the state appears to be on "the back side" of its surge in cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant.

boston.cbslocal.com

I've been following this very closely and it is pretty interesting that cases are dropping this fast; which is a very good thing. We're seeing the same in NJ. What I am curious about is how much of the results are influenced by home testing. I have no clue on the volume of home test kits and how often they're used, but since they've become more available, I do wonder. I am hoping the drop is due to the trend you cited in SA.

 

[mrjurrs]

New York, one of the first states to be hit by Omicron in early December, is clearly following the South Africa model. The cases were “straight up and straight down.” Also following this trajectory was the UK, Massachusetts, and now, it would appear, my own state (also one of the first hit), where the cases are already beginning to fall. It looks like in a couple weeks I can return to the gym (knocks on wood).

Covid cases in New York were nearly an even mix of Delta and Omicron.

Now it’s everybody else’s turn in the barrel.

View attachment 67370276
View attachment 67370277

COVID-19 Breakthrough Data

Cases and hospitalizations by vaccination status

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

Massachusetts 'Very Much On The Back Side' Of Omicron Surge, Baker Says

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said Tuesday the state appears to be on "the back side" of its surge in cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant.

boston.cbslocal.com

Will the anti-vaxxers point out the difference in hospitalizations during the decline as showing the vaccine isn't needed?

 

[Luce]

Are you suggesting natural immunity is not a thing?

I was talking about the "triggering" thing. It makes your post dumb. It makes me think you might post other dumb things.

Like "getting the disease to avoid getting the disease." Which is pretty damn dumb.

 

[Cardinal]

Will the anti-vaxxers point out the difference in hospitalizations during the decline as showing the vaccine isn't needed?

That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. That is no way a logical conclusion of the graphs, and to even suggest such a thing is indicative of major head trauma.

So yes, that is what they will say.

 

[ApersonLIKEallOFyou]

How would you prefer to get your immunity?

a) Vaccination, or
b) Several weeks of horrible illness or, worse, a month in a hospital bed (assuming you survive), and possible loss of taste and smell, and possible long term organ damage.

Both roads lead to immunity. Which one sounds more appealing to you?

Based on your position, I expect you to burn 600 calories avoiding answering the question directly.

The only conclusion reachable is that you are purposely ignoring what I'm saying. Therefore I will spell it out for in a way that is even easier to understand.

Natural immunity is a thing.
There is a segment of our population who are choosing not to get vaccinated.
These people, upon catching COVID, will gain natural immunity for some period of time.
If the unvaxxed continue to exist, we all benefit from them surviving COVID and then existing with natural immunity instead of nothing at all.

Obviously the preferred method is that they get vaccinated. Your question is totally ridiculous and designed to dodge the very simple question I asked you. Statistically speaking, most people getting COVID, especially omicron, are not suffering from "several weeks of horrible illness or, worse, a month in a hospital bed..." You know this, I know this. Why would you pretend the binary choice is to get the vaccine or that?
I am pro-vaccine. I am vaccinated. But that does not mean I will ignore the science. I will continue to be as safe as possible while also understanding that current evidence suggests that reinfection with the virus that causes COVID-19 is uncommon in the 90 days after initial infection.
So, doubling down and being absolutely clear, what I see in that graph is a lot of people who just got natural immunity. Apparently what you see is the chance to go to the gym.

 

[ApersonLIKEallOFyou]

I was talking about the "triggering" thing. It makes your post dumb. It makes me think you might post other dumb things.

Like "getting the disease to avoid getting the disease." Which is pretty damn dumb.

Which is not what I posted and I'd ask you afford me the respect of not claiming I wrote something that I didn't. An edit to your post would be appreciated.

 

[Luce]

Which is not what I posted and I'd ask you afford me the respect of not claiming I wrote something that I didn't. An edit to your post would be appreciated.

If you are proposing natural immunity as a strategy, then that's exactly what you said.

 

[Phys251]

Which is not what I posted and I'd ask you afford me the respect of not claiming I wrote something that I didn't. An edit to your post would be appreciated.

My how quickly we forget the words that we wrote!

The only conclusion reachable is that you are purposely ignoring what I'm saying. Therefore I will spell it out for in a way that is even easier to understand.

Natural immunity is a thing.
There is a segment of our population who are choosing not to get vaccinated.
These people, upon catching COVID, will gain natural immunity for some period of time.
If the unvaxxed continue to exist, we all benefit from them surviving COVID and then existing with natural immunity instead of nothing at all.

There is no way to take that except as an anti-vax endorsement of "get the virus to avoid the virus," which is incredibly bad advice.

 

[Noodlegawd]

I don’t know how anybody can look at those graphs of antivaxxers getting absolutely curb-stomped and say, “Yep, that’s natural immunity working!” But hey, you see what you’re gonna see, I guess.

No, you just need to look at research just published by the CDC to say that natural immunity works.

 

[ApersonLIKEallOFyou]

If you are proposing natural immunity as a strategy, then that's exactly what you said.

I’m not proposing that. That is not what I said at all. Simply mentioning “natural immunity” has you all in a twist and imagining things that simply aren’t true. Either show a post of me proposing natural immunity as a strategy or edit your posts.

 

[Noodlegawd]

My how quickly we forget the words that we wrote!



There is no way to take that except as an anti-vax endorsement of "get the virus to avoid the virus," which is incredibly bad advice.

Actually, there is another way to take that, which is what he actually said. What he said is practically the opposite of how you "took it."

 

[Phys251]

Actually, there is another way to take that, which is what he actually said. What he said is practically the opposite of how you "took it."

Would you like to demonstrate the mental gymnastics you just performed to reach that indefensible conclusion?

 

[Luce]

I’m not proposing that. That is not what I said at all. Simply mentioning “natural immunity” has you all in a twist and imagining things that simply aren’t true. Either show a post of me proposing natural immunity as a strategy or edit your posts.

You are.

Natural immunity is a thing.
There is a segment of our population who are choosing not to get vaccinated.
These people, upon catching COVID, will gain natural immunity for some period of time.
If the unvaxxed continue to exist, we all benefit from them surviving COVID and then existing with natural immunity instead of nothing at all.

 

[ApersonLIKEallOFyou]

Actually, there is another way to take that, which is what he actually said. What he said is practically the opposite of how you "took it."

It’s almost comical at this point. They simply refuse to accept that natural immunity is real and if you tell them it is it means you’re anti-vax. But follow the science, right?