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You’re demanding a level of evidence that you don’t have for your own position. What you have is a correlation not causation. I’m pointing out that there are other correlations that better explain a sudden influx in Obamacare participants. Namely that millions of people lost their jobs last year, their employer insurance went with it, and their COBRA benefits are expiring.
And the OP is also about the reduced costs to participants, and the conversation you jumped in the middle of was about the costs, not the numbers. Of course a big reason why we have nearly a million new enrollees is the costs are FAR more affordable for a big segment at the upper end of the subsidy range, i.e. working class Americans, especially older Americans, around 400% of FPL and above.
And it's also about the reduced costs to participants, and the conversation you jumped in the middle of was about the costs, not the numbers. Of course a big reason why we have nearly a million new enrollees is the costs are FAR more affordable for a big segment at the upper end of the subsidy range.
That’s an assumption. Seems to me the most likely reason there are a million new enrollees is that millions lost their jobs and insurance during the pandemic and their COBRA benefits are expiring.
If you're working poor Obamacare makes sense. The Covid shutdown has produced millions more poor people. But if you make a decent living Obamacare isn't even a good buy.
That’s an assumption. Seems to me the most likely reason there are a million new enrollees is that millions lost their jobs and insurance during the pandemic and their COBRA benefits are expiring.
The drop in premiums is not an assumption - that's real - and if you want to say making insurance far cheaper for a bunch of people didn't encourage a bunch of new people to sign up, that's a bigger assumption that frankly doesn't make a lot of sense.
COBRA coverage extends for at least 18 months, so most aren't near an imminent termination of benefits. The problem with COBRA is the employee has to pay the entire cost, no employer subsidy, often $1,000/month or more. With the new legislation, ACA plans will be FAR more affordable for a big segment of those who could afford COBRA coverage to begin with. So even if it's the layoffs, the new subsidy makes ACA plans a far better and more affordable option than COBRA.
The numbers are pretty dramatic, as indicated in the OP and elsewhere on this thread, particularly for older people, and those making 60k-100k. There's a map linked that shows the huge drop in monthly costs - often more than $1,000 per month.
The drop in premiums is not an assumption - that's real - and if you want to say making insurance far cheaper for a bunch of people didn't encourage a bunch of new people to sign up, that's a bigger assumption that frankly doesn't make a lot of sense.
COBRA coverage extends for at least 18 months, so most aren't near an imminent termination of benefits. The problem with COBRA is the employee has to pay the entire cost, no employer subsidy, often $1,000/month or more. With the new legislation, ACA plans will be FAR more affordable for a big segment of those who could afford COBRA coverage to begin with. So even if it's the layoffs, the new subsidy makes ACA plans a far better and more affordable option than COBRA.
The numbers are pretty dramatic, as indicated in the OP and elsewhere on this thread, particularly for older people, and those making 60k-100k. There's a map linked that shows the huge drop in monthly costs - often more than $1,000 per month.
If you're working poor Obamacare makes sense. The Covid shutdown has produced millions more poor people. But if you make a decent living Obamacare isn't even a good buy.
Obamacare = private insurance policies, so they're as 'good' a buy as any insurance.
The vast majority of us get our insurance subsidized at work, and a plan without subsidies, such as an ACA plan if you're outside the subsidy range, isn't as good a buy as one where someone else like an employer pays half or more of the costs. The new legislation reduces premiums for lots of folks making a 'decent' living, especially older workers with the highest premiums and copays.
Why didn't the million sign up in 2020, during the Trump-era enrollment period? Perhaps because they couldn't afford the premiums, and now they can? Makes sense to me.
I'm not sure what you are objecting to. The main achievement of the legislation was LOWERING COSTS. It did that - the OP and elsewhere has links to show how much. If you want to argue that dramatically lowering premiums for a bunch of folks didn't impact the number signing up, OK, make the case. I don't know why you'd want to defend that hill, but you can if you want.
Obamacare = private insurance policies, so they're as 'good' a buy as any insurance.
The vast majority of us get our insurance subsidized at work, and a plan without subsidies, such as an ACA plan if you're outside the subsidy range, isn't as good a buy as one where someone else like an employer pays half or more of the costs. The new legislation reduces premiums for lots of folks making a 'decent' living, especially older workers with the highest premiums and copays.
It was linked in the OP, and Greenbeard quoted from both the article in the NYT and the HHS release. I assumed that since you denied that anything Biden had signed helped, you were aware of the law or at least bothered to read the OP. From the OP:
And:
The point of my first comment was Biden and the Democrats delivered within weeks what Trump and the GOP have promised for a decade. The biggest beneficiaries of the new subsidies are exactly the 'middle class working families' who made too much to make healthcare affordable for them - lots of them older, within a decade or so of Medicare, and making a decent but not great salary, often two earner couples, who either fell outside the 400% of FPL cliff, or whose subsidies didn't really help with healthcare insurance, or had high deductibles. The new law limits healthcare spending to 8.5% of expected income, and so helped a lot of people at the upper end of ACA subsidies, and beyond. Much more here:
One of Greenbeard's links takes you to a map that I think deserves to be linked directly. Look at who the big beneficiaries are of this bill, and where. They are older, often in red states, who aren't making near poverty wages, but making a good living at age 60 but with high healthcare costs because fo their age. It made insurance DRASTICALLY more affordable for them. That's a good thing. Better if they just transitioned into Medicare but this is a very good answer for those folks who kind of fell into a donut hole.
If you're working poor Obamacare makes sense. The Covid shutdown has produced millions more poor people. But if you make a decent living Obamacare isn't even a good buy.
That was a policy decision the prior administration made. Regardless, that's the impetus for the changes to the ACA under the American Rescue Plan.
E.g. a family of 4 in Topeka making $115K has seen their premium contribution fall about $700/month since the American Rescue Plan's changes to the ACA took effect at the beginning of April.
More people will move to ACA, eventually it will become as common place go to choice as is Medicare. It just takes some people longer to face reality and truth than it does others.
There are factions in society, who believe in "Confederacy Ideology" which had ABSOLUTELY no mention or concern for the General Welfare of the Population, those types choose the ignorance of self defeat, until they are face with a personal reality, of the benefit of Programs that Serve The General Welfare of Society with good programming.
Ignorance has always plagued America, those segment who embrace the agenda of Confederacy Ideology, are full of shit, because when they hit 65 they can't wait to get Medicare Coverage. These types only concern is of their own self consumed mentality, they don't want to see others benefit, but they think they are entitled when it comes for their time to collect and join in enjoying the benefits. This is the evil in some, they likely lived their entire life with envy, resentment, jealously and contempt at others. Time and Life as age does what age does, it will and it does breaks all that "haughtiness" down !!!! Those who cling to "haughtiness"... only make their older age years bitter and anguished. It often shows on their faces, with the blotches and wrinkles that make them present the crumpled up madness they hold in their hearts. the old saying, "what in your heart, will show on your face"
That’s an assumption. Seems to me the most likely reason there are a million new enrollees is that millions lost their jobs and insurance during the pandemic and their COBRA benefits are expiring.
Because I think employer provided plans are better than anything on offer in the Obamacare marketplace and its unwise to be voluntarily cheaping out in the middle of a pandemic.
Because I think employer provided plans are better than anything on offer in the Obamacare marketplace and its unwise to be voluntarily cheaping out in the middle of a pandemic.
You are correct, they are better.
But I think that is the rub, with the government in the insurance business, the fact that they have to take everyone increased insurance costs to such an extent that they never offered relatively healthy people the same level of coverage for the same cost ("You can keep your current healthcare") so as such I see this as a handout to the poor or sickly. It isn't sustainable as is because it provides a shitty insurance plan to those who had better (over 60% of the people)
Which just leads me to 2 possible solutions:
1. Government needs to get out of the health business and let people die or go uninsured
2. Some form of UHS
To me, if the numbers could actually be worked out I am leaning towards a UHS even though I am pretty conservative.
I know this is fruitless, but can you describe how a typical employer-provided plan is better than, say, a silver plan on the exchange? I don't mean in general terms - lower copays or something, because that's a function of how the ACA splits the cost, versus how an employer decides to split the cost - but what the plans cover, and the total, unsubsidized cost per person or per family
But I think that is the rub, with the government in the insurance business, the fact that they have to take everyone increased insurance costs to such an extent that they never offered relatively healthy people the same level of coverage for the same cost ("You can keep your current healthcare") so as such I see this as a handout to the poor or sickly. It isn't sustainable as is because it provides a shitty insurance plan to those who had better (over 60% of the people)
Which just leads me to 2 possible solutions:
1. Government needs to get out of the health business and let people die or go uninsured
2. Some form of UHS
To me, if the numbers could actually be worked out I am leaning towards a UHS even though I am pretty conservative.
If you're on an employer plan, "they" have to take everyone. It's one reason why we all love, love our employer-based system. If your wife has had breast cancer, you pay the same premiums as someone with a family who's never seen a doctor and charged insurance a penny outside annual physicals or something. If you're 62 with 3 heart attacks, and get a new job with employer based coverage, again, that premium is the same as (in most cases) that 26 year old who is in great physical health. That's made possible in part by HUGE government subsidies that we've had for decades. ACA just extends who gets government subsidies to the poor and now 'middle class' who don't have an employer splitting the costs.
I know this is fruitless, but can you describe how a typical employer-provided plan is better than, say, a silver plan on the exchange? I don't mean in general terms - lower copays or something, because that's a function of how the ACA splits the cost, versus how an employer decides to split the cost - but what the plans cover, and the total, unsubsidized cost per person or per family
If you're on an employer plan, "they" have to take everyone. It's one reason why we all love, love our employer-based system. If your wife has had breast cancer, you pay the same premiums as someone with a family who's never seen a doctor and charged insurance a penny outside annual physicals or something. If you're 62 with 3 heart attacks, and get a new job with employer based coverage, again, that premium is the same as (in most cases) that 26 year old who is in great physical health. That's made possible in part by HUGE government subsidies that we've had for decades. ACA just extends who gets government subsidies to the poor and now 'middle class' who don't have an employer splitting the costs.
The reason I excluded copays or average premiums paid by employees is those simply are not a function of the insurance plan, what it covers, and what it costs SOMEONE to put in place. If your employer pays 90% of the cost of your insurance, that is "better", for you, than an unsubsidized plan on the exchange, because you only pay 10% of the actuarial cost at work. You can't compare that employer plan where you pay 10% of the actuarial cost to an ACA plan where you pay 100%, except to tell us that, yes, subsidies to you lower your cost.
And "what the plans cover, and the total, unsubsidized cost per person or per family" is how we'd compare plan to plan, apples to apples. When you bring in subsidies, such as with employer plans, or the subsidies on the exchange, then we're not comparing insurance PLANS but subsidy levels and who gets them, how they're paid, who qualifies, and how much that individual is subsidized.
But if you want, show us how the ACA plans (say the benchmark silver plan on your local exchange) are inferior to the average employer plan under any rules you want to use. Tell us what YOU mean by "better," and back that up so we can see the data that supports your claim of "better." I don't expect you'll come through for us.
The reason I excluded copays or average premiums paid by employees is those simply are not a function of the insurance plan, what it covers, and what it costs SOMEONE to put in place. If your employer pays 90% of the cost of your insurance, that is "better", for you, than an unsubsidized plan on the exchange, because you only pay 10% of the actuarial cost at work. You can't compare that employer plan where you pay 10% of the actuarial cost to an ACA plan where you pay 100%, except to tell us that, yes, subsidies to you lower your cost.
And "what the plans cover, and the total, unsubsidized cost per person or per family" is how we'd compare plan to plan, apples to apples. When you bring in subsidies, such as with employer plans, or the subsidies on the exchange, then we're not comparing insurance PLANS but subsidy levels and who gets them, how they're paid, who qualifies, and how much that individual is subsidized.
But if you want, show us how the ACA plans (say the benchmark silver plan on your local exchange) are inferior to the average employer plan under any rules you want to use. Tell us what YOU mean by "better," and back that up so we can see the data that supports your claim of "better." I don't expect you'll come through for us.
MY insurance plan is better for ME, than the subsidized insurance plan for you.
That is exactly how I mean better. Of course it's better, I pay less and get more.
Now if we were arguing the validity of a UHC, I might be inclined to agree with you that the total cost of both need to be included. We aren't however arguing that, we are arguing which is better, for ME
Now if we were arguing the validity of a UHC, I might be inclined to agree with you that the total cost of both need to be included. We aren't however arguing that, we are arguing which is better, for ME
This was your claim, and it goes far beyond just you:
"But I think that is the rub, with the government in the insurance business, the fact that they have to take everyone increased insurance costs to such an extent that they never offered relatively healthy people the same level of coverage for the same cost ("You can keep your current healthcare") so as such I see this as a handout to the poor or sickly. It isn't sustainable as is because it provides a shitty insurance plan to those who had better (over 60% of the people)"
And no one disputes that when someone pays part of your bill it is cheaper for you. If that's the case broadly with the ACA, the problem isn't the 'insurance plan' but that people not on employer plans do not get subsidized. That's very different than claiming the ACA is a 'shitty insurance plan.'
This was your claim, and it goes far beyond just you:
"But I think that is the rub, with the government in the insurance business, the fact that they have to take everyone increased insurance costs to such an extent that they never offered relatively healthy people the same level of coverage for the same cost ("You can keep your current healthcare") so as such I see this as a handout to the poor or sickly. It isn't sustainable as is because it provides a shitty insurance plan to those who had better (over 60% of the people)"
And no one disputes that when someone pays part of your bill it is cheaper for you. If that's the case broadly with the ACA, the problem isn't the 'insurance plan' but that people not on employer plans do not get subsidized. That's very different than claiming the ACA is a 'shitty insurance plan.'
The ACA plan that is as affordable as the employee contribution plan has higher deductibles, higher co-pays, likely changes the doctor you see, costs you more on Hospitals, ER Visits.
Better.
My claim was just that. When people look at insurance plans, they don't think to themselves, Hmm I wonder which plan will cover the most amount of people for the best costs/benefit. They say "What is best for me and my family?" The fact that employee contributions are usually well below 50% of the cost of the plan is a net benefit to being employed by someone with that insurance plan. It is also the bane of the UHC. Yes, its subsidized but it isn't paid by taxpayers, it's paid by the employer.
The ACA is covered by taxing those who already have their insurance covered (mostly)
Is it a net benefit for society? Maybe so. I think that a UHC which disconnects insurance from employment would be the way to go and then allow those who want 'better', pay for it themselves.
I would back any UHC that covers all of America at less cost. It also needs to be the go to of all governmental agencies from Presidents to Senators to representatives. They should not get 'better' simply for being in the government.
The ACA plan that is as affordable as the employee contribution plan has higher deductibles, higher co-pays, likely changes the doctor you see, costs you more on Hospitals, ER Visits.
Better.
My claim was just that. When people look at insurance plans, they don't think to themselves, Hmm I wonder which plan will cover the most amount of people for the best costs/benefit. They say "What is best for me and my family?" The fact that employee contributions are usually well below 50% of the cost of the plan is a net benefit to being employed by someone with that insurance plan. It is also the bane of the UHC. Yes, its subsidized but it isn't paid by taxpayers, it's paid by the employer.
The ACA is covered by taxing those who already have their insurance covered (mostly)
Is it a net benefit for society? Maybe so. I think that a UHC which disconnects insurance from employment would be the way to go and then allow those who want 'better', pay for it themselves.
I would back any UHC that covers all of America at less cost. It also needs to be the go to of all governmental agencies from Presidents to Senators to representatives. They should not get 'better' simply for being in the government.
Just a clarification, the annual taxpayer subsidies of employer provided insurance is about $280 billion, per year. When you get paid in the form of 'free' health insurance, or get subsidized by the employer, you don't pay income or payroll taxes on that income. The more money you make (i.e. the higher your marginal tax bracket) and the more generous the employer plan so amount paid to you in the form of health insurance, the bigger the taxpayer subsidy YOU get.
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