NATO official says alliance would be forced to take action if Russia uses chemical, nuclear weapons

[EMNofSeattle]

Except their massive conventional struggles which have decimated their very thin crust of elite formations, sure.

We know your view of the war is based solely on Ukranian propaganda.

 

[Antiwar]

"NATO says it'll be forced to test mutually assured stupidity after it forced created these idiotic conditions."

"UNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!"

 

[Antiwar]

We know your view of the war is based solely on Ukranian propaganda.

His view on war is likely based on being in the army.

You don't have to do the inverse of 'their' neo-McCarthyism.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Holy crow, that's Machiavellian!

It's also absolute shit. Among other things, Russia is getting its ass handed to it.

 

[joluoto]

The Russians can't take all of Ukraine. The post-war occupation would already demand too many troops, and their forces are already struggling as is.

Yes, but Putin's ego won't allow for anything else.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

You don't have to do the inverse of 'their' neo-McCarthyism.

Nothing he says indicates he is using actual military intelligence in his analysis. He couldn’t anyway, he’s been quite clear he’s using Twitter for his takes.

 

[Antiwar]

Nothing he says indicates he is using actual military intelligence in his analysis. He couldn’t anyway, he’s been quite clear he’s using Twitter for his takes.

 

[Jredbaron96]

We know your view of the war is based solely on Ukranian propaganda.

The irony of this accusation coming from someone who quite literally only accepts Russian media as a valid source of information on the war.

But no, I do not. Which is why I throughout this conflict I have repeatedly stated my belief the Russians will win while still pointing out the abysmal performance of their forces thus far.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Nothing he says indicates he is using actual military intelligence in his analysis.

Irony.

Why are you so averse to acknowledging the reality that's Russia has thus far severely punched under its weight? Why the constant insistence that any report of Russian struggles are propaganda despite the bounty of evidence to support it?

 

[Jredbaron96]

Yes, but Putin's ego won't allow for anything else.

The Russians have already scaled back their strategic goals and claimed their massive assaults elsewhere were just diversionary efforts. It's clear they haven't had the military forces capable of actually taking the major cities they want, so instead they are looking for a limited set of goals that they are more capable of achieving.

 

[joluoto]

The Russians have already scaled back their strategic goals and claimed their massive assaults elsewhere were just diversionary efforts. It's clear they haven't had the military forces capable of actually taking the major cities they want, so instead they are looking for a limited set of goals that they are more capable of achieving.

That is if they were actually thinking strategically. Putin isn't, he just sees Ukraine and thinks "mine". Putin is not going to settle for a lesser price, not yet.

 

[Jredbaron96]

That is if they were actually thinking strategically. Putin isn't, he just sees Ukraine and thinks "mine". Putin is not going to settle for a lesser price, not yet.

But they've already more or less stated that and have already made moves towards it. The last week has seen the Russians shift their forces away from major cities (after their failures around Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Kiev) and redirect their forces towards Donbas.

The Russian performance thus far has been nothing to phone home about, but this is a logical adjustment. The multi-prong offensive the Russians launched at the beginning of the invasion was clearly too much for their logistics to handle and as a result their badly prepared forces in the north suffered heavy losses. Several of the those BTGs were then pulled out, reconstituted, and sent south towards Donbas, a clear shift in Russian priorities. It's still largely been an underwhelming performance on their part; their breakthrough at Izyum appears to have only been accomplished by simply shoving another VDV unit into the meat grinder until they got what they wanted, a bad sign about the performance of the vast majority of formations that make up the Russian ground forces.

The Russians seem to be looking for a way out by limited their goals to securing Donbas, after which they can claim victory, and try to start repairing the damage to their prestige and credibility as a major power.

 

[multivita-man]

The US is the world’s leading oil producer - to say that US energy policy does not influence US gas prices is ridiculous. Switching the topic from US gas prices back to inflation is BS. HAND

U.S. oil is also harder to get out of the ground than it is in the Middle East, so the time and costs of getting the oil out of the ground and into the market are greater. Companies here have to consider at what point it's worth it - it's not worth it if this is just a temporary response to a temporary problem. Long term, our interests are probably better served by relying less on fossil fuels - the oil producers understand this and are, understandably, reluctant to drill.

This is *mostly* not Biden's fault, but rather economic reality as the U.S. and G7/G20 nations climb out of a long period in which fossil fuel demand was abnormally low. I say *mostly* because I disagree with Biden on two things: 1) he probably could signal a willingness to push for more production mid-term and long-term to keep oil supply on hand in case of a sudden need for it. I think he's actually moving in that direction but the messaging has been a little, well, messy, lol. And 2), he should not be relying on our strategic reserves as a way to temporarily nudge down gas prices - that's a colossally bad idea.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

But they've already more or less stated that and have already made moves towards it. The last week has seen the Russians shift their forces away from major cities (after their failures around Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Kiev) and redirect their forces towards Donbas.

The Russian performance thus far has been nothing to phone home about, but this is a logical adjustment. The multi-prong offensive the Russians launched at the beginning of the invasion was clearly too much for their logistics to handle and as a result their badly prepared forces in the north suffered heavy losses. Several of the those BTGs were then pulled out, reconstituted, and sent south towards Donbas, a clear shift in Russian priorities. It's still largely been an underwhelming performance on their part; their breakthrough at Izyum appears to have only been accomplished by simply shoving another VDV unit into the meat grinder until they got what they wanted, a bad sign about the performance of the vast majority of formations that make up the Russian ground forces.

The Russians seem to be looking for a way out by limited their goals to securing Donbas, after which they can claim victory, and try to start repairing the damage to their prestige and credibility as a major power.

Mariupol is effectively under Russian control. I don’t know where you consider that a “failure”.

 

[joluoto]

Mariupol is effectively under Russian control. I don’t know where you consider that a “failure”.

Except is not. After all this time they still haven't been able to take the city.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Except is not. After all this time they still haven't been able to take the city.

They have taken the city. The Russians effectively control it, something even the mayor has stated to the media.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Mariupol is effectively under Russian control. I don’t know where you consider that a “failure”.

Because they were only able to do so by shelling the city into oblivion, creating a humanitarian crisis, and killing a bunch of civilians while earning international comdendation.

Your next reply will be to simultaneously deny it happened while saying it was really the Ukrainians.

And regardless it only makes more problems for the Russians their later occupation, which is why Moscow is now trying to back off and claim they only had limited objectives.

It's clear from their opening strikes the Russians wanted to take major urban areas with little damage but were repulsed, leaving them to fall back on their Syrian tactics which were ultimately counter productive to their strategic goals

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Because they were only able to do so by shelling the city into oblivion, creating a humanitarian crisis, and killing a bunch of civilians while earning international comdendation.

Your next reply will be to simultaneously deny it happened while saying it was really the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians are responsible by not playing according to established standards of warfare and using civilian areas to house military forces. If they would pop out of their holes and engage the Russians on the field of battle then it wouldn’t be necessary.

And regardless it only makes more problems for the Russians their later occupation, which is why Moscow is now trying to back off and claim they only had limited objectives.

It's clear from their opening strikes the Russians wanted to take major urban areas with little damage but were repulsed, leaving them to fall back on their Syrian tactics which were ultimately counter productive to their strategic goals

You keep making assumptions for what the Russians are thinking that I don’t think you are qualified to make and which strangely align with whatever Ukranian social media accounts are claiming this week.

 

[Jredbaron96]

The Ukrainians are responsible

No they are not.

You keep making assumptions for what the Russians are thinking that I don’t think you are qualified to make and which strangely align with whatever Ukranian social media accounts are claiming this week.

What assumptions? The Russians very clearly opened their invasion with a series of insertions by elite formations intended to sieze key targets. You don't lunch daylight heliborne assaults and send internal troops in unless you're expecting a rapid seizure and then pacification.

That failed, and as a result the Russians had to send in heavier ground forces backed by heavy artillery. This also failed, as desultory attacks by the apparently poorly prepared Eastern Military District forces were not capable of carrying it out. The fact that the 1st Guards Tank Army also has not seen much success is a clear indication that the Russians simply can't overpower the Ukrainians like people were expecting them too.

Notice how you can't actually provide an alternate explanation. Your responses to people pointing out all these Russians failures has just been to deny it and insist otherwise without any evidence or contrary facts.

But please, feel free to reveal how this is all actually going according to plan.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

No they are not.



What assumptions? The Russians very clearly opened their invasion with a series of insertions by elite formations intended to sieze key targets. You don't lunch daylight heliborne assaults and send internal troops in unless you're expecting a rapid seizure and then pacification.

Ok.

That failed, and as a result the Russians had to send in heavier ground forces backed by heavy artillery. This also failed, as desultory attacks by the apparently poorly prepared Eastern Military District forces were not capable of carrying it out. The fact that the 1st Guards Tank Army also has not seen much success is a clear indication that the Russians simply can't overpower the Ukrainians like people were expecting them too.

Except they’ve been overpowering the Ukranians where they have been fighting them.

Notice how you can't actually provide an alternate explanation. Your responses to people pointing out all these Russians failures has just been to deny it and insist otherwise without any evidence or contrary facts.

The alternate explanation is Ukraine is losing the war, which is plainly obvious to anyone not invested in their propaganda

But please, feel free to reveal how this is all actually going according to plan.

I don’t know what their plan is. But neither do you, which is why you’re making assumptions. Then saying “well if the Russian invasion isn’t going to the plan that I, an E-4, came up with then clearly they’re badly losing”

Not really a good argument.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Except they’ve been overpowering the Ukranians where they have been fighting them.

Except where they haven't, which is in numerous locations. The Russians are currently pulling back most of of forces from the Kiev front and reinforcing their lines in Donbas.

alternate explanation is Ukraine is losing the war, which is plainly obvious to anyone not invested in their propaganda

Literally you're only support for this claim has been to regurgitate Russian propoganda.

don’t know what their plan is. But neither do you, which is why you’re making assumptions.

It wasn't an assumption that they would try a rapid insertion. The entire world watched it happen.

Then saying “well if the Russian invasion isn’t going to the plan that I, an E-4, came up with then clearly they’re badly losing”

It's weird how you think we haven't been able to track where and when the Russians are striking, or as if their military doctrine is some kind of big mystery.

NATO Intel knew more about Russian intentions than the average Russian Grunt. This game you keep trying to play of "the Russians are actually geniuses you guys just don't realize it" isn't fooling anyone.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Except where they haven't, which is in numerous locations. The Russians are currently pulling back most of of forces from the Kiev front and reinforcing their lines in Donbas.



Literally you're only support for this claim has been to regurgitate Russian propoganda.

And the fact the Ukranians are now openly saying they’ll discuss the status of Crimea in negotiations, which they previously said they wouldn’t do.

Typically you don’t increase possible concessions when you’re winning.

It wasn't an assumption that they would try a rapid insertion. The entire world watched it happen.

And a month later its a meaningless argument. Like sitting in the Bunker in 1945 joking about how Americans lost at Kasserine pass.

It's weird how you think we haven't been able to track where and when the Russians are striking, or as if their military doctrine is some kind of big mystery.

NATO Intel knew more about Russian intentions than the average Russian Grunt. This game you keep trying to play of "the Russians are actually geniuses you guys just don't realize it" isn't fooling anyone.

I’m sure someone is tracking it, it’s just not a “we” that includes you.

 

[Jredbaron96]

And the fact the Ukranians are now openly saying they’ll discuss the status of Crimea in negotiations, which they previously said they wouldn’t do.

Typically you don’t increase possible concessions when you’re winning.

And the Russians are suddenly claiming that they're refocusing their efforts after a string of operational failures in the North.

You don't suddenly declare that you're actually only trying for limited gains when you're winning.

And a month later its a meaningless argument. Like sitting in the Bunker in 1945 joking about how Americans lost at Kasserine pass.

It's not meaningless. The Russians have a very limited reserve of elite infantry formations to rely upon, and they squandered several battalions worth trying to take Kiev. Meanwhile their overall casualties are rising while making only limited progress in certain sectors.

Given the overall very limited abilities of Russian infantry, the increasing attrition of Russian airborne forces is alarming. That's not something they can just reconstitute out of thin air.

I’m sure someone is tracking it, it’s just not a “we” that includes you.

This is the most covered war in human history and you're really trying to play "you can't know what's going"

Sure, I don't know what the exact Russian time tables are. But I do know how the Russians fight, how they're organized, their weapons and their doctrine. Russian isn't Martian.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

And the Russians are suddenly claiming that they're refocusing their efforts after a string of operational failures in the North.

You don't suddenly declare that you're actually only trying for limited gains when you're winning.

I’m not Russia, so the use of “you’re” is not proper.

It's not meaningless. The Russians have a very limited reserve of elite infantry formations to rely upon, and they squandered several battalions worth trying to take Kiev. Meanwhile their overall casualties are rising while making only limited progress in certain sectors.

And likely also destroying most of Ukraine’s trained soldiers as well. Ukraine is more and more relying on “territorial defense” which is basically child soldiers and forloughed convicts with minimal training. It’s the Volksturm, and that didn’t work well either.

Given the overall very limited abilities of Russian infantry, the increasing attrition of Russian airborne forces is alarming. That's not something they can just reconstitute out of thin air.

And Ukraine won’t have any functioning military left at all when this is done

This is the most covered war in human history and you're really trying to play "you can't know what's going"

Sure, I don't know what the exact Russian time tables are. But I do know how the Russians fight, how they're organized, their weapons and their doctrine. Russian isn't Martian.

I think you know precisely what Ukraine is saying. Because nothing you write ever differs from Ukranian sources. You’ve been predicting the imminent failure of Russias forces for weeks now and yet Russia is still taking and holding territory.

Maybe Steiner is almost to Ukraine to relieve them, but I doubt it.

 

[Jredbaron96]

I’m not Russia, so the use of “you’re” is not proper.

I wasn't referring to you specifically.

And likely also destroying most of Ukraine’s trained soldiers as well. Ukraine is more and more relying on “territorial defense” which is basically child soldiers and forloughed convicts with minimal training. It’s the Volksturm, and that didn’t work well either.

The Ukrainians are still carrying out combined arms operations and just launched a counter attack at Kherson. So either they still have well trained soldiers or their "child soldiers" are well trained.

And Ukraine won’t have any functioning military left at all when this is done

That's funny; at the start of this war someone claimed the Ukrainian Army wouldn't exist by that Monday.

I think you know precisely what Ukraine is saying. Because nothing you write ever differs from Ukranian sources. You’ve been predicting the imminent failure of Russias forces for weeks now and yet Russia is still taking and holding territory.

In your rush to accuse me of parroting Ukrainian propaganda you ignored that I on multiple occasions expressed the opinion that Russian could still pummel Ukraine into submission and achieve their operational goals. My belief in an eventual Russian battlefield victory held firm until they started pulling back and redirecting those forces.