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National Climatic Data Center: 2014 Was the Warmest Year on Record

Ceist said:
No it wasn't. This thread is about 2014 being the hottest year on record. Her blog post was an incoherent ramble about her bizarre lack of understanding of the wording about attribution in the AR5 IPCC report.

Just shows you don't actually pay attention to the content of what you copy and paste.
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....and he did it again a few posts above.

Maybe I'll copy an excerpt the pros and cons of filling car tires with air vs nitrogen. Because that stuff is in the atmosphere, right? And tire pressures are important to gas mileage, and reduction of emissions. But I won't post any comments on it. I'll let the data speak for itself.
 
Threegoofs said:
....and he did it again a few posts above.

Maybe I'll copy an excerpt the pros and cons of filling car tires with air vs nitrogen. Because that stuff is in the atmosphere, right? And tire pressures are important to gas mileage, and reduction of emissions. But I won't post any comments on it. I'll let the data speak for itself.
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Keep up the denial.
 
Verax said:
Lmao... ya know when you have to make up new rules you may want to take a step back and re-think your position. Apparently since 2014 is the warmest year you've decided it wouldn't be fair to evaluate years by themselves anymore but now must pit it against all other years combined so that it is no longer the likeliest warmest year... :lamo

Let me ask you another question. Which years' data shows the highest mean global temperature? That would be 2014 my friend. :lol:
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You actually can't evaluate the years by themselves when making a statistical claim of "warmest" because you have to evaluate the chance that year is the warmest against all other year (implicit in the claim). The chance that the warmest year falls within all the other years is 62% while the chance that 2014 is the warmest is only 38%. Again, sorry you have such a hard time grasping this simple rule.
 
jmotivator said:
You actually can't evaluate the years by themselves when making a statistical claim of "warmest" because you have to evaluate the chance that year is the warmest against all other year (implicit in the claim). The chance that the warmest year falls within all the other years is 62% while the chance that 2014 is the warmest is only 38%. Again, sorry you have such a hard time grasping this simple rule.
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"Warmest year on record". It does not say "warmest group of years versus a single year". Only one year can be the warmest year, Mr. Motivator. A group of years cannot be the warmest year.

The year with the highest likelihood of being the warmest is 2014.

I feel stupid even arguing this, lol. It is kind of funny though.
 
Verax said:
"Warmest year on record". It does not say "warmest group of years versus a single year". Only one year can be the warmest year, Mr. Motivator. A group of years cannot be the warmest year.

The year with the highest likelihood of being the warmest is 2014.

I feel stupid even arguing this, lol. It is kind of funny though.
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False! "Warmest year on record" is PRECISELY a comparison of one year against all other years as a group. How do you not know this?!
 
Verax said:
"Warmest year on record". It does not say "warmest group of years versus a single year". Only one year can be the warmest year, Mr. Motivator. A group of years cannot be the warmest year.

The year with the highest likelihood of being the warmest is 2014.

I feel stupid even arguing this, lol. It is kind of funny though.
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It's weird isn't it? :D

According to the NASA NOAA press conference (which none of the pseudoskeptics/deniers seem to have listened to), while statistically close to that of 2010 and 2005, 2014 was a record by .04ºC (NOAA) and .02ºC (GISTEMP) and with uncertainties accounted for, is about 1.5 to 3 times more likely than 2010 to be the record and about 5 to 7 times more likely than 2005 to be the record.

According to deniers and pseudoskeptics, the hottest year could be any year.... just not 2014. Just Because.

Or just because they don't want it to be. So they prefer to switch their brains off and gullibly swallow the misrepresentations of a tabloid journalist (who also didn't seem to have listened to the press conference) about what was said at the press conference and in the press release.
 
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jmotivator said:
False! "Warmest year on record" is PRECISELY a comparison of one year against all other years as a group. How do you not know this?!
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A better question would be why do you think you know this? Did you go to warmest year on record school where they taught you this; That when evaluating the warmest year it must have a greater probability than all other warmest years combined? I'm curious, what is the warmest year currently? What is the protocol you were taught at warmest year school? Are the warmest years all other years than 2014 or shouldn't it also include 2014? Is it all the warmest years? Which ones? Please elaborate on this intriguing subject.
 
Ceist said:
It's weird isn't it? :D

According to the NASA NOAA press conference (which none of the pseudoskeptics/deniers seem to have listened to), while statistically close to that of 2010 and 2005, 2014 was a record by .04ºC (NOAA) and .02ºC (GISTEMP) and with uncertainties accounted for, is about 1.5 to 3 times more likely than 2010 to be the record and about 5 to 7 times more likely than 2005 to be the record.

According to deniers and pseudoskeptics, the hottest year could be any year.... just not 2014. Just Because.

Or just because they don't want it to be. So they prefer to switch their brains off and gullibly swallow the misrepresentations of a tabloid journalist (who also didn't seem to have listened to the press conference) about what was said at the press conference and in the press release.
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At this point I can't tell if these guys are joking or bat**** insane!
 
Verax said:
A better question would be why do you think you know this? Did you go to warmest year on record school where they taught you this; That when evaluating the warmest year it must have a greater probability than all other warmest years combined? I'm curious, what is the warmest year currently? What is the protocol you were taught at warmest year school? Are the warmest years all other years than 2014 or shouldn't it also include 2014? Is it all the warmest years? Which ones? Please elaborate on this intriguing subject.
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Not playing your game, Verax, you are looking foolish. If there is a 38% chance that 2014 is the warmest year on record then saying that 2014 is the warmest year on record as the NCDC did is most likely wrong. There is a 62% chance that their claim is wrong.

Your idiotic dance through the logical fallacy museum doesn't save you from this.
 
jmotivator said:
Not playing your game, Verax, you are looking foolish. If there is a 38% chance that 2014 is the warmest year on record then saying that 2014 is the warmest year on record as the NCDC did is most likely wrong. There is a 62% chance that their claim is wrong.

Your idiotic dance through the logical fallacy museum doesn't save you from this.
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From Global Analysis - Annual 2014 | Calculating the Probability of Rankings for 2014 | State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Using a Monte Carlo approach (Arguez et al, 2013), NCDC considered the known uncertainty of the global land and ocean annual temperature in the 2014 annual ranking. Taking into account the uncertainty and assuming all years (1880-2014) in the time series are independent, the chance of 2014 being

Warmest year on record: 48.0%
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So tell me, what is the likeliest warmest year?
 
clownboy said:
I'm still waiting for one of these warmest years on record to actually feel warm. :mrgreen:
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That's not how it works.

The day times are the same or cooler and the night times are warmer.
 
blaxshep said:
Yet somehow that constitutes a world ending catastrophe.
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Yep, go figure.

I don't understand how warmer nights are going to do that. Maybe it will make the vampires extinct?
 
jmotivator said:
Well, DC and GISS are off by 10% points in their certainty?

Second, the year most likely to be the warmest by NCDC calculation is... drum roll... not 2014. So sorry.
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"Not 2014" is not a year. If you had to choose a year, what year would you say is the likeliest warmest year?
 
Verax said:
"Not 2014" is not a year. If you had to choose a year, what year would you say is the likeliest warmest year?
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That claim is that 2014 is the warmest year of all the years on record. By claiming it is the warmest you have put 2014 against all other years on record. The chance that the actual warmest year is one of all the other years and not 2014 is 52% or 62% depending on who you listen to. So the likeliest warmest year is any year but 2014.
 
Verax said:
"Not 2014" is not a year. If you had to choose a year, what year would you say is the likeliest warmest year?
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Likeliest is not the same as saying it is.

The truth of the matter is that 2014 is likely not to be the warmest year.
 
jmotivator said:
That claim is that 2014 is the warmest year of all the years on record. By claiming it is the warmest you have put 2014 against all other years on record. The chance that the actual warmest year is one of all the other years and not 2014 is 52% or 62% depending on who you listen to. So the likeliest warmest year is any year but 2014.
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Lord of Planar said:
Likeliest is not the same as saying it is.

The truth of the matter is that 2014 is likely not to be the warmest year.
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What is the warmest year?
 
Yes, 2014 has the largest chance of the listed years of being the warmest. Still, odds are, it is not the warmest. The sum of the others is greater than 2014, so one of them is more likely to be the warmest.

The largest chance is meaningless among the several.

If I buy two powerball tickets, and everyone else who buys a powerball tocket only buys one, does that mean I will win?

That seems to be the logic of warmers...
 
Verax said:
So no year is the warmest?
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You seem incapable of thinking statistically. The answer to which year is actually the warmest is unknown.
 
Lord of Planar said:
The warmest year is indeterminate!
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In light of news that 2014 was the warmest year, deniers have decided that NO YEAR CAN BE WARMEST and have declared "warmest year" a null and void concept.

jmotivator said:
You seem incapable of thinking statistically. The answer to which year is actually the warmest is unknown.
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Statistically the year with the greatest chance of being warmest is 2014.
 
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