Misleading Inflation Numbers to be Released on Wednesday, May 12

[highroller]

You guys don’t know what you’re talking about. This is a waste of time.

Maybe you don’t know what you’re talking about?

 

[CaughtInThe]

The inflation followed by stagflation is going to piss off everyone.

hey. you can pray.

 

[highroller]

The inflation followed by stagflation is going to piss off everyone.

I’d like to see your economic research the base on this prediction.

I see this as the increase from the last year so we’re having two years worth of inflation in one year.

 

[iguanaman]

No. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

Today liberals will argue that inflation is good. Lol.

It is economists that say the 2% inflation is essential for a growing economy and to guard against deflation which will kill an economy overnight. Meanwhile we are not experiencing inflation now. When the Fed raises interest rates it will mean we have inflation.

KEY TAKEAWAYS​

• Inflation, in the basic sense, is a rise in price levels.
• Economists believe inflation comes about when the supply of money is greater than the demand for money.
• Inflation is viewed as a positive when it helps boost consumer demand and consumption, driving economic growth.
• Some believe inflation is meant to keep deflation in check, while others think inflation is a drag on the economy.
• John Maynard Keynes said that some inflation helps prevent the Paradox of Thrift—delayed consumption.2

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111414/how-can-inflation-be-good-economy.asp

 

[Tahuyaman]

It is economists that say the 2% inflation is essential for a growing economy and to guard against deflation which will kill an economy overnight…

It’s currently more than twice that.

 

[Kushinator]

You guys don’t know what you’re talking about. This is a waste of time.

Exactly.

You believe that higher than normal inflation following an unprecedented period of pandemic induced recession is going to ruin people.

You are wasting everyone's time....

 

[Tahuyaman]

Exactly.

You believe that higher than normal inflation following an unprecedented period of pandemic induced recession is going to ruin people.

You are wasting everyone's time....

Inflation caused by massive debt is going to hurt lower income people in a big way. But you don’t care.

 

[Kushinator]

Inflation caused by massive debt is going to hurt lower income people in a big way. But you don’t care.

It's a transitory situation where supply chains are being overwhelmed by demand.

Lower income people don't hold cash for extended periods and don't have much savings. Lower income people tend to live paycheck to paycheck.

 

[Tahuyaman]

It's a transitory situation where supply chains are being overwhelmed by demand.

Lower income people don't hold cash for extended periods and don't have much savings. Lower income people tend to live paycheck to paycheck.

We are accruing massive debt which is getting worse. This debt is fueling inflation.

 

[Tahuyaman]

It's a transitory situation where supply chains are being overwhelmed by demand.

Lower income people don't hold cash for extended periods and don't have much savings. Lower income people tend to live paycheck to paycheck.

Correct. Low income people don’t generally have much in the way savings. They also generally don’t have a lot of discretionary spending ability. What little savings they do have gets eaten up by inflation.

The more we recklessly pile up more debt, the more difficult it is for these low income people.

 

[Tahuyaman]

Maybe you don’t know what you’re talking about?

I do.

 

[skeptic llc]

Trump's one regret is that he has but one country to give for his life.

Wow, that is brilliant. Amazing that a person who would gladly throw entire nations onto a bonfire to feed his ego has so many supplicants. We truly are an irrational species.

 

[mrjurrs]

The rate will be somewhere around 3.5 to 4 percent, which will cause serial strokes among our conservative friends.

Why will the rate be misleading?

Because the official measurement, which will get the headlines, will compare prices of April, 2021 to prices of April, 2020 when Covid was tanking prices. So the comparison will be out of whack with the long-term trendline.

In graphical form it looks like this:
View attachment 67332703
The official rate will compare 256.192 with 266 or thereabouts, whatever the April 2021 number turns out to be. But that rate is highly misleading.

Instead, we should compare ignore the 2020 trough and interpolate the inflation index as if it had followed its usual trendline. So you'd compare 259 or so with 266, and get a rate of 2.7 percent.

Somewhat high, but in line with what Fed Chair Powell expects and no cause for serial strokes.

But watch the hysteria unfold on Wednesday.

Don't forget the price impact of supply chain disruptions. "Recent supply chain disruptions are likely to add to near-term inflation pressures by constraining the supply of goods and services in the economy, just as demand is set to bounce back."

Supply Chain Disruptions: Adding to Upside Inflation Risks - Wilmington Investment Management

wilmingtoninvestmentmanagement.com

 

[iguanaman]

It’s currently more than twice that.

No it is not. Depressed fuel prices returning to normal is not inflation and neither are supply glitches brought on by a faster return to normal than companies expected. When the Fed sees real inflation above their target you will know.

 

[iguanaman]

Inflation caused by massive debt is going to hurt lower income people in a big way. But you don’t care.

Did you sat that when the one term mistake cut taxes and doubled our deficits to over a trillion? No you did not.

 

[Monica33]

The big boys and self believe hyperinflation is on the cards .
With impending food shortages , broken distribution channels and commodity prices in the stratosphere , all hell will break loose soon .
Oil has gone from peanuts March 2020 to $70 and $80 looks likely quickly and $100 is not a silly forecast .

Nothing transitory about the a depression which will dwarf 1929 once you factor in the economy collapse and underlying debt --- upward of $300 trillion if you factor in all obligations .

Enter , Mr Trump on white charger .

 

[mrjurrs]

Inflation caused by massive debt is going to hurt lower income people in a big way. But you don’t care.

What's the magic number for debt causing inflation? Compare debt to inflation since 2001. Increasing debt, no unusual inflation. Try to remember what was going on at this time last year. Will you be freaking out when next years numbers show deflation?

 

[iguanaman]

The big boys and self believe hyperinflation is on the cards .
With impending food shortages , broken distribution channels and commodity prices in the stratosphere , all hell will break loose soon .
Oil has gone from peanuts March 2020 to $70 and $80 looks likely quickly and $100 is not a silly forecast .

Nothing transitory about the a depression which will dwarf 1929 once you factor in the economy collapse and underlying debt --- upward of $300 trillion if you factor in all obligations .

Enter , Mr Trump on white charger .

LOL You have a terminal case of TDS.

 

[highroller]

The big boys and self believe hyperinflation is on the cards .
With impending food shortages , broken distribution channels and commodity prices in the stratosphere , all hell will break loose soon .
Oil has gone from peanuts March 2020 to $70 and $80 looks likely quickly and $100 is not a silly forecast .

Nothing transitory about the a depression which will dwarf 1929 once you factor in the economy collapse and underlying debt --- upward of $300 trillion if you factor in all obligations .

Enter , Mr Trump on white charger .

 

[Visbek]

We are accruing massive debt which is getting worse. This debt is fueling inflation.

lol... No, it isn't.

First, there is no correlation between inflation and either federal debts, or federal deficits. For example, the US didn't run massive deficits, or see growing debts, during the 1970s -- when inflation was hitting double digits. Similarly, we didn't see massive inflation in 2009-2010, after big spending to deal with the 2008 financial crisis.

Second, the current "inflation" is not an across-the-board rise, as you might expect with something structural like "federal debt causing inflation." For example, the price of used cars has increased significantly over the past year -- but that's not because the federal government borrowed heavily, it's because a shortage in critical parts for new cars, combined with job losses, resulted in huge demand for used cars.

Third, since you missed it: Japan's government spent most of the past 20 years borrowing money like it's going out of style. Guess what their big problem is? It's deflation, not inflation. That's the exact opposite of what you predict.

Fourth, as already noted, most of the "HOLY ****ING SHIT INFLATION THIS MONTH!!!!" headlines are a result of looking at year-over-year Consumer Price Index changes. Since prices completely tanked last spring, that particular number looks awful -- but will drop significantly in a few months.

In fact, you haven't even explained how or why federal borrowing would cause inflation. I'm pretty sure you can't do it, because any theory you propose would likely be decimated by what's happening in Japan.


Bonus fact! Inflation doesn't always hit low-income people the worst, because wages normally rise with inflation. What a concept.

 

[Tahuyaman]

lol... No, it isn't.

First, there is no correlation between inflation and either federal debts, or federal deficits. For example, the US didn't run massive deficits, or see growing debts, during the 1970s -- when inflation was hitting double digits. Similarly, we didn't see massive inflation in 2009-2010, after big spending to deal with the 2008 financial crisis.

Second, the current "inflation" is not an across-the-board rise, as you might expect with something structural like "federal debt causing inflation." For example, the price of used cars has increased significantly over the past year -- but that's not because the federal government borrowed heavily, it's because a shortage in critical parts for new cars, combined with job losses, resulted in huge demand for used cars.

Third, since you missed it: Japan's government spent most of the past 20 years borrowing money like it's going out of style. Guess what their big problem is? It's deflation, not inflation. That's the exact opposite of what you predict.

Fourth, as already noted, most of the "HOLY ****ING SHIT INFLATION THIS MONTH!!!!" headlines are a result of looking at year-over-year Consumer Price Index changes. Since prices completely tanked last spring, that particular number looks awful -- but will drop significantly in a few months.

In fact, you haven't even explained how or why federal borrowing would cause inflation. I'm pretty sure you can't do it, because any theory you propose would likely be decimated by what's happening in Japan.


Bonus fact! Inflation doesn't always hit low-income people the worst, because wages normally rise with inflation. What a concept.

Debt is fueling inflation. The more money you print, the less it’s worth….. hence inflation.

Bonus fact. Inflation is a hidden regressive tax. Low income people are impacted more than the wealthy or upper middle class.

 

[jpn]

Inflation hurts lower income people much more than it hurts the wealthy or upper middle class. It’s basically an unseen regressive tax.

Inflation isn’t a “ political tactic.” Its a result of piss poor economic policy.

The GOP can’t just turn on inflation to make Biden look bad. The idea that they can is idiotic.

Your word usage is sloppy. Three examples:

1) You wrote, and I quote, " It hurts only lower income people, those who can attord it the least." Now you are saying that it hurts lower income people "much more" than others. There's a big difference between "only" and "much more."

2) I didn't write that inflation is a political tactic. I wrote that screaming "Inflation!" "Inflation!" is a cynical political tactic used by some to slow the recovery to make Biden look bad and help the GOP in 2022. See the difference? Claiming that inflation is a big problem isn't the same as inflation being a big problem. Words matter.

3) Yes, I agree that the idea that the GOP can "turn on inflation to make Biden look bad" is idiotic. Have you seen anyone make that claim? I haven't. Maybe you're reading too fast. Slow down and try to do better.

 

[jpn]

Debt is fueling inflation. The more money you print, the less it’s worth….. hence inflation.

Then explain these real-world facts:



Waiting...

 

[Tahuyaman]

Anyone who refuses to recognize that debt is the major driver of inflation is either a hard partisan on the side of who’s accruing the debt or that are just ignorant.

 

[rahl]

Anyone who refuses to recognize that debt is the major driver of inflation is either a hard partisan on the side of who’s accruing the debt or that are just ignorant.

you were just shown that this is incorrect with official economic data