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Midterm Elections 2022: The Senate Poll Thread

Tender Branson

Tender Branson

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Post new Senate polls in here.

There are 35 Senate races this year (34 regular ones + 1 special in Oklahoma due to a retirement).

According to RCP, only 10 of the 35 races will be kinda competitive, determining the new Senate composition from 2023 onwards.

These states are: AZ, CO, FL, GA, NH, NV, NC, OH, PA, WI

AZ, CO, GA, NH and NV have Democratic incumbents. The other 5 are Republican-held.


Primarily, post polls from these 10 states here, but you can also post polls from not so competitive races ...
 
Brand-new Fox News polls:

Wisconsin: 50% Mandela Barnes (D), 46% Sen. Ron Johnson (R) -> D pickup

www.foxnews.com

Fox News Poll: Barnes edges Johnson in Wisconsin Senate race

Incumbent Senator Republican Ron Johnson trails Democrat Mandela Barnes in a new Fox News Poll. Incumbent Governor, Democrat Tony Evers maintains a small lead.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

Arizona: 50% Sen. Mark Kelly (D), 42% Blake Masters (R) -> D hold

www.foxnews.com

Fox News Poll: Kelly holds 8-point lead over Masters in Arizona Senate race

Senator Mark Kelly maintains a solid lead over the Republican challenger Blake Masters. Democrat candidate for governor Katie Hobbs leads by less.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
Not sure why RCP lists Colorado as potentially competitive.

CO polls have the Democrat Bennet up 15 points, while they rate Missouri as non-competitive (where polls have the Republican ahead by just single digits).
 
FiveThirtyEight (FTE) has 6 Senate races:

NC Even ........ vacant, previously R
OH D+1.2 ..... vacant, previously R
GA D+1.7 ...... held by D (Warnock, special)
NV D+1.5 ...... held by D
AZ D+8.3 ....... held by D (Kelly, special)
PA D+11.5 ..... vacant, previously R

FTE
 
Last edited:
Tender Branson said:
Brand-new Fox News polls:

Wisconsin: 50% Mandela Barnes (D), 46% Sen. Ron Johnson (R) -> D pickup

www.foxnews.com

Fox News Poll: Barnes edges Johnson in Wisconsin Senate race

Incumbent Senator Republican Ron Johnson trails Democrat Mandela Barnes in a new Fox News Poll. Incumbent Governor, Democrat Tony Evers maintains a small lead.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...
A 4% difference doesn't make it a "pick up". It at least puts the race in the "tossup" category.

Cook Political Report has it at Tossup, Inside Elections has it at "Tilt Rep" and Sabato's Crystal Ball has it at "Lean Rep" as of Aug. 16th
 
Tender Branson said:
Not sure why RCP lists Colorado as potentially competitive.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball (as of Aug 16th) all have it at "Likely Dem" (a "D hold")
 
 
I seriously doubt that Fetterman is up just 4 points right now, but it's Trafalgar, a notoriously Republican pollster.

All other polls have Fetterman up 10-15 points and Shapiro too ...
 
Georgia has the strangest polling right now:

One poll has Sen. Warnock (D) ahead by 10, another has Walker (R) up 3.

All other competitive states don't have such discrepancies ...
 
Tender Branson said:
Georgia has the strangest polling right now:

One poll has Sen. Warnock (D) ahead by 10, another has Walker (R) up 3.

All other competitive states don't have such discrepancies ...
Click to expand...
Sabato, Cook Political & Inside Elections have this race at "Tossup" as of yesterday.
 
Tender Branson said:
Brand-new Fox News polls:

Wisconsin: 50% Mandela Barnes (D), 46% Sen. Ron Johnson (R) -> D pickup

www.foxnews.com

Fox News Poll: Barnes edges Johnson in Wisconsin Senate race

Incumbent Senator Republican Ron Johnson trails Democrat Mandela Barnes in a new Fox News Poll. Incumbent Governor, Democrat Tony Evers maintains a small lead.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

Arizona: 50% Sen. Mark Kelly (D), 42% Blake Masters (R) -> D hold

www.foxnews.com

Fox News Poll: Kelly holds 8-point lead over Masters in Arizona Senate race

Senator Mark Kelly maintains a solid lead over the Republican challenger Blake Masters. Democrat candidate for governor Katie Hobbs leads by less.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...
Going by today's numbers, it looks like the Democrats pick up PA and WI while all other seats remain with the party that currently holds them. The Dems have a good shot at NC also, I'd put NC in the lean Republican category. GA, a Democratic held seat I'd place in the lean Democratic column. Same for NV.
 
Tender Branson said:
I seriously doubt that Fetterman is up just 4 points right now, but it's Trafalgar, a notoriously Republican pollster.

All other polls have Fetterman up 10-15 points and Shapiro too ...
Click to expand...
But the NV poll was from the same polling (Trafalgar).
 
My thoughts:

NC Even ........ vacant, previously R - R hold
OH D+1.2 ..... vacant, previously R - Dem pick up
GA D+1.7 ...... held by D (Warnock, special) - Dem hold
NV D+1.5 ...... held by D - Dem hold
AZ D+8.3 ....... held by D (Kelly, special) - Dem hold
PA D+11.5 ..... vacant, previously R - Dem gain
Add WI to this - Dem pick up
Add FL to this - R hold
 
A new Emerson College poll shows Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) up 11 against Donald Bolduc (R) in New Hampshire.

emersoncollegepolling.com

New Hampshire 2022: Senator Hassan Leads Freshly Nominated Bolduc By 11 - Emerson Polling

The first Emerson College/WHDH New Hampshire General Election poll finds incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com

On the other hand, in Ohio, J.D. Vance (R) leads Tim Ryan (D) by 4 today:

emersoncollegepolling.com

Ohio 2022: Vance Holds Four-Point Lead Over Ryan; DeWine Maintains Comfortable Lead over Whaley - Emerson Polling

Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of Ohio voters finds Republican JD Vance with a four-point lead over Democrat Tim Ryan
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com

In both states, the 2 Republican incumbent governors lead by 15 and 17.

In Ohio, Trump leads Biden by 10 for 2024 and in New Hampshire Biden leads Trump by 3.

Those are better margins for Trump than in 2020, when he won OH by 8 and lost NH by 7.
 
Tender Branson said:
Update:

PA Senate has become a bit closer, but suddenly UT seems competitive ...
Click to expand...
As of yesterday, Cook Political, Inside Elections & Sabato have Utah at Likely Republican
Cook Political & Sabato have Penn. at Lean Dem & IE has it at "Tossup"
 
Roadvirus said:
As of yesterday, Cook Political, Inside Elections & Sabato have Utah at Likely Republican
Cook Political & Sabato have Penn. at Lean Dem & IE has it at "Tossup"
Click to expand...

There are some weird close polls coming out of UT though, but not sure if I believe them.

Probably not.

Most likely the same bullsh*t as the Trafalgar polls showing Washington Senate close ...
 
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