Mattis predicts partnership with Bolton despite differences

[TU Curmudgeon]

From the Associated Press

Mattis predicts partnership with Bolton despite differences


WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Jim Mattis acknowledged on Tuesday that he and President Donald Trump’s incoming national security adviser, John Bolton, have different world views but predicted they will develop a working partnership.


“I look forward to working with him -- no reservations, no concerns at all,” Mattis told reporters at an impromptu news conference. “Last time I checked he’s an American. I’m not in the least bit concerned.”


Mattis said he has never met Bolton, a former ambassador to the United Nations and conservation firebrand. He said he expects Bolton to pay a visit to the Pentagon soon, perhaps this week, to begin developing a relationship.


“I’ll tell you right up front: it’s going to be a partnership,” ...

[COMMENT]

This is going to be an interesting one to watch for the reasons stated well down in the article.

One of them has never been to war and wants to start one that he won't have to fight, and one of them has been to war and doesn't want to start one that other people's children will die in.

 

[Skeptic Bob]

With McMaster gone, Mattis is likely to be the last voice of reason in our security apparatus with any serious influence. Trump can fire and hire everyone else all he wants and I will be able to laugh it off. If Mattis leaves I will be nervous.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If Mattis leaves I will be nervous.

And probably with good cause.

 

[Evilroddy]

I hope when Mattis walks politely into the room with Bolton for the first time in April that he has a plan to kill him. He may need it!

In an unrelated note, this is bad mojo for peace in the Persian Gulf and with Iran. Mattis hates the Iranians with a passion and Bolton is a predatory militarist who wants to start more wars than America can afford to fight. So it's bad mojo for Amerca too in my opinion.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Tangmo]

Mattis has the most secure position in the cabinet and except for vp Pence, probably in the government. Mattis is aware John Bolton is a Yalie warmongering draft weasel. SecDef Gen. retired James Mattis went through Iraq and Afghanistan while Bolton ranted for each of 'em. Anyone who's been within earshot of John Nuke 'em Now Bolton knows Bolton never makes an argument and does not engage in discussion. To Bolton everything is self-evident and needs no examination or analysis. In Bolton's fiery world everything is a given to charge ahead to do. So James Mattis wants to look Bolton in the eye and make clear to little John the fuzzbrain that James Mattis is the keeper of the Pentagon during the Trump administration. And that Mattis isn't going anywhere that doesn't already appear on his schedule.

Army chief Gen. Mark Milley speaks of the joint chiefs who are presided over by SecDef Mattis as "the team." All the joint chiefs and the present generation of armed forces commanders know who John Bolton is from way back. So Bolton taking one for the team also takes on a whole new meaning. Bolton is accomplished at dodging but when the whole team fires away from a bucket of beanballs it's gonna hurt. Best stay off the field and even better, out of the park entirely.

Learn for the first time how to say "yes sir."

 

[JANFU]

With McMaster gone, Mattis is likely to be the last voice of reason in our security apparatus with any serious influence. Trump can fire and hire everyone else all he wants and I will be able to laugh it off. If Mattis leaves I will be nervous.

The voices of reason are slowly leaving, now Pompeo as Sec Sate, throw in Bolton, looks like a Cabinet for war.

 

[humbolt]

The voices of reason are slowly leaving, now Pompeo as Sec Sate, throw in Bolton, looks like a Cabinet for war.

Could be viewed that way. I think Pompeo and Bolton are more aggressive than the men they replaced, who were more measured folks. We'll see how it works out. The only thing certain about Trump's cabinet is that service in any position is very uncertain.

 

[bubbabgone]

The voices of reason are slowly leaving, now Pompeo as Sec Sate, throw in Bolton, looks like a Cabinet for war.

Looks more like a Cabinet meant to scare the Jjajangmyeon out of Kim Jong-un and it may be working.

 

[Helix]

With McMaster gone, Mattis is likely to be the last voice of reason in our security apparatus with any serious influence. Trump can fire and hire everyone else all he wants and I will be able to laugh it off. If Mattis leaves I will be nervous.

i get what you're saying, but i'm already nervous. we have a president who only cares about himself and who might think that he'll benefit from a war. when i find myself saying "well, at least this advisor seems at least a little bit sane" or "maybe the generals will disobey an utterly insane order," that's a fairly scary situation. it shouldn't be a thing.

 

[Fiddytree]

Even if he is less than pleased with Bolton’s presence, Secretary Mattis wouldn’t publicly speak out against Bolton.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Tangmo]

Mattis isn't going to miss a war cause he'll need to be sure it's run right. This means among other things putting Bolton in charge of paperclips and keeping his mouth shut.

The significant point presently is that the rap against the United States is that it uses substantial military force against only states that are not nuclear armed. Hence NK went nuclear under the guise of self-protection against the U.S. Lybia quit its nuclear weapons programs then got assaulted by the U.S. and Nato. We know everyone says accurately there are no good choices or options against NK. Kim knows this very well besides. However, while the joint chiefs recognize this fully, the JCS also know the times and the moment do not absolve them from making a decision and taking action. JCS are the principal uniformed advisers to SecDef and chairman of JCS is the principal uniformed advisor to Potus/CinC. Methinks everyone making the strategic decisions are on the same page here. It may well be that Kim is shaking and moving now and suddenly because he was shown the page. The bottom line is that if states such as Iran believe they can immunize themselves from USA actions by going nuclear things will only get much worse and sooner rather than later.

 

[JANFU]

Looks more like a Cabinet meant to scare the Jjajangmyeon out of Kim Jong-un and it may be working.

True, I have considered that and it may be accurate, thing is no one knows and putting those 2 in those postilions, does it not increase the risk of a war?
We and the world already know that we do not know what Trump will do.

 

[bubbabgone]

True, I have considered that and it may be accurate, thing is no one knows and putting those 2 in those postilions, does it not increase the risk of a war?
We and the world already know that we do not know what Trump will do.

Not really. But if Xi & Kim are convinced that it might then it's all good.

 

[JANFU]

Not really. But if Xi & Kim are convinced that it might then it's all good.

Well to paraphrase Tillerson, Diplomacy up til the first bomb drops.
For demilitarization that would entail highly intrusive inspections, and plutonium to missiles can be easily hidden.
Shuttering Nuclear plants??
Next- NK wants the same guarantee the US gave to Russia on Cuba, no invasion/attacks
Opening of trade, lifting sanctions, normalization of relations.
China does not want NK regime to crash, as would happen in the event of a US attack as reunification would in all probability occur.

Kim knows full well that like Ho Chi Minh stated, ref the Chinese being asked to supply troops during the Vietnamese War, his reply was the last time the Chines came they stayed a thousand years. 1 reason Kim purged any officials including his Uncle who was seen as in the Chinese camp.

Kim is quite adept at playing off China and the US. And that is what he would continue to do.

China does not want SK & Japan who has considered building their own Nukes, as SK would then ask for US Nukes or possibly build their own?? That would leave China facing Nukes from India to Japan on its borders

Lastly in the event of a decapitation strike the question is, would Kim retaliate or not?
Keep in mind Kim sees his regimes survival as first and foremost, and even mild retaliation against SK could/would result in 10's if not hundreds of thousands of causalities. And as they say, this is when things spin out of anyone's control.

Border Disputes between China and North Korea
China/NK border disputes including fighting during the Cultural Revolution.

 

[Fiddytree]

CNN reports that several sources have let them know that Mattis tried to prevent Bolton's appointment. I wouldn't doubt it.

Sent from my LG-H910 using Tapatalk

 

[bubbabgone]

Well to paraphrase Tillerson, Diplomacy up til the first bomb drops.
For demilitarization that would entail highly intrusive inspections, and plutonium to missiles can be easily hidden.
Shuttering Nuclear plants??
Next- NK wants the same guarantee the US gave to Russia on Cuba, no invasion/attacks
Opening of trade, lifting sanctions, normalization of relations.
China does not want NK regime to crash, as would happen in the event of a US attack as reunification would in all probability occur.

Kim knows full well that like Ho Chi Minh stated, ref the Chinese being asked to supply troops during the Vietnamese War, his reply was the last time the Chines came they stayed a thousand years. 1 reason Kim purged any officials including his Uncle who was seen as in the Chinese camp.

Kim is quite adept at playing off China and the US. And that is what he would continue to do.

China does not want SK & Japan who has considered building their own Nukes, as SK would then ask for US Nukes or possibly build their own?? That would leave China facing Nukes from India to Japan on its borders

Lastly in the event of a decapitation strike the question is, would Kim retaliate or not?
Keep in mind Kim sees his regimes survival as first and foremost, and even mild retaliation against SK could/would result in 10's if not hundreds of thousands of causalities. And as they say, this is when things spin out of anyone's control.

Border Disputes between China and North Korea
China/NK border disputes including fighting during the Cultural Revolution.

I assume you meant denuclearization.
Given that, it seems the first step would be to remove nuclear weapons grade related materials and equipment from the Country.
If they let that happen and we could be assured of it through persistent inspections then we may have something.
I just can't envision such a thing.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I hope when Mattis walks politely into the room with Bolton for the first time in April that he has a plan to kill him. He may need it!

In an unrelated note, this is bad mojo for peace in the Persian Gulf and with Iran. Mattis hates the Iranians with a passion and Bolton is a predatory militarist who wants to start more wars than America can afford to fight. So it's bad mojo for Amerca too in my opinion.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

If the US wants to go to war with Iran, then in all likelihood it is going to have to do it solo.

PS - The US government has just announced that it is "ending its military presence" in Syria. "Ending Military Presence" is the polite way of saying "Declaring Victory and Going Home". About the only people who are going to be upset by this announcement are going to be the "Anti-Assad Coalition" that the US government has been supporting. Neither the Turkish, Russian, Iranian, Iraqi, or Syrian governments are going to mind in the least (heck, even ISISISISILDAESHWHATEVER is likely to be pleased since that will mean that there are fewer people actively trying to kill them).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Looks more like a Cabinet meant to scare the Jjajangmyeon out of Kim Jong-un and it may be working.

Alternatively Kim Jong-un may actually know what he is doing and by "mending fences" with the PRC have actually strengthened his hand.

In any event, Mr. Trump is going to have some 'slight" difficulty in starting a war with the DPRK after he has accepted an invitation to "sit down and talk about our differences" issued by the DPRK. There won't be any UNSC Resolution to provide butt cover if Mr. Trump decides that "Well, Americans have never tossed out a President, no matter how unpopular, in the middle of a war, so if I start a war early in 2020 I'll be a shoo-in for reelection.".

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Even if he is less than pleased with Bolton’s presence, Secretary Mattis wouldn’t publicly speak out against Bolton.

Quite right. Gen. Mattis is "old school".

Of course, that doesn't mean that he might not resign and answer questions regarding why he resigned quite bluntly.

By analogy with "obligation to disobey an illegal order", if Gen. Mattis feels that the government of the United States of America is doing something that would make him violate his oath to "... support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same." then he has an obligation to speak out and attempt to actually support and DEFEND the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC.

I suspect (hell, I'm POSITIVE) that Gen. Mattis has the ethical and moral backbone set out in Line 83 (assuming that I counted correctly) of e.e. cummings "i Sing of Olaf proud and big" should he feel that the situation warrants it.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Sound analysis except for

The bottom line is that if states such as Iran believe they can immunize themselves from USA actions by going nuclear things will only get much worse and sooner rather than later.

Iran has found that it can immunize itself from American government actions by NOT going nuclear.

Whether Messrs. Kim and XI (in the Red Corner) have been "tag-teaming" a solo Mr. Trump (in the Blue Corner) we will simply have to wait and see.

My suspicion is that they have, but I'm not certain enough of it to raise that "suspicion" to an "opinion" and most certainly not to a "fact".

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I just can't envision such a thing.

Don't worry about it, because it isn't going to happen.

Why?

Because the DPRK is going to insist that the US government enter into a multinational treaty whereby each of the parties guarantees the territorial integrity of the DPRK against an attack by ANY party and the US government simply isn't going to do that - not even for "denuclearization".

PS - You can bet your lunch money that, if the DPRK does agree to "denuclearization" then it is also going to insist that absolutely no Americans be even associated with any inspections - which the US government also will not agree to.

 

[Tangmo]

Alternatively Kim Jong-un may actually know what he is doing and by "mending fences" with the PRC have actually strengthened his hand.

In any event, Mr. Trump is going to have some 'slight" difficulty in starting a war with the DPRK after he has accepted an invitation to "sit down and talk about our differences" issued by the DPRK. There won't be any UNSC Resolution to provide butt cover if Mr. Trump decides that "Well, Americans have never tossed out a President, no matter how unpopular, in the middle of a war, so if I start a war early in 2020 I'll be a shoo-in for reelection.".

My reading is that Trump is full of fire and fury toward NK because the joint chiefs were already there by the time Trump took the oath of office. Or JCS were very close to being there.

The NK tests had driven the jcs in that direction and the further NK testing during 2017 moved the joint chiefs across the line. Know and understand, JCS do not make strategic resolutions only when they have choices or options they like. JCS have to make choices rain or shine. Sometimes the jcs strategic decision makers responsible for the national security have only poor choices, or bad options -- or **** actions in front of 'em. Only. And when guys such as the joint chiefs make a recommendation to Potus, they do it and they do it decisively.

And as the Army chief Gen. Mark Milley said last year to the National Press Club, bad choices as the only choices do not absolve strategic decision makers of their duty and responsibility to make decisions, choices, recommendations to Potus. That is, when it is strategically mandated to act, then the decision makers must and do act. The reality of it is as old as time so this imperative is nothing new to leaders and military commanders anywhere.

It is likely Kim is shaking and moving on this, to include suddenly inviting a quick and urgent sitdown with Trump, because Kim and his generals have recognized the smoke signals out of the JCS offices at the Pentagon. Kim & Co have certainly heard the thunderings of Trump toward 'em. Mattis and Tillerson while the latter was SecState talked things up both ways, i.e., diplomacy until the first bomb drops. So Kim has to denuclearize or go deep underground into his bunkers. Methinks Kim & Co know this 100%. JCS likely know also Kim would quit his nukes if Beijing turns the screws so tight Kim would have no choice but to quit 'em. I don't see any bluffing in this either. As for Trump himself, we know he gets along fine when he and the people around him are on the same page. It is also likely Mattis and Bolton are right there in front of the choir leading everyone in tune. Highly likely, with Bolton as the new guy on the official team.

Keep in mind Xi and Kim hate the guts of the other and that this was their first meeting. And that it was driven by events, not brotherhood.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

My reading is ...

The NK tests had ...

And as the ...

It is likely ...

Keep in mind Xi and Kim hate the guts of the other and that this was their first meeting. And that it was driven by events, not brotherhood.

All good points and I'd agree with all of them if it weren't for the fact that the collective IQ of the leadership of BOTH the DPRK and the PRC was higher than 50.

One factor that your analysis seems to have missed is the fact that Kim Jung-un is 100% aware of two things:

1. if he attacks the United States of America then the US will retaliate on a MASSIVE scale; and
2. if he attacks the United States of America the PRC will stand by and go "OOOhhhhh" as it watches the pretty coloured lights flashing over the DPRK.

Once you realize that Kim Jung-un knows that if he STARTS a war with the US then the DPRK is 100% certain to lose AND that he is acting rationally in full appreciation of that fact, 99% of the blustering about the "danger to the United States of America from North Korean nuclear weapons" shifts from "hype" to "crap".

Admittedly there IS a danger to the United States of America from North Korean nuclear weapons and that danger changes from "potential (assuming that what the DPRK has actually works)" to "likely (assuming that what the DPRK has actually works)" in the event that the US military employs nuclear weapons against the DPRK and/or actually invades the DPRK.

The odds that the leadership of the DPRK and the PRC is actually AFRAID of the United States of America are very, very, very, low.

Why?

Because they have been "gaming" this situation for much longer than the US government has and also because they actually have "inside information" on how the US government and the people making up the US government think while the US government has next to no "inside information" about either the PRC or the DPRK, even less about how their governments (and the people making up their governments) think, and because the President of the United States of America doesn't have a clue about how the __[fill in the blank]__ think or what they actually want to achieve.

Now I will agree that Mr. Kim would "abandon his nukes" if the government of the PRC were to put strong pressure on him to do so.

What I can't agree is that there is any compelling reason for the government of the PRC to do that.

What do you think Mr. Trump will do if the RF, the PRC, the DPRK, and the ROK reach an agreement which will guarantee the borders of each (plus guarantee that all of them would provide military aid to any one of them that was attacked by any other party) as well as significant arms reduction on the Korean Peninsula AND the removal of all but a "training cadre" of foreign troops from the Korean Peninsula and then announce that they have "resolved the Korean problem" and invited Mr. Trump to make the United States of America a party to the "Four Party Peace and Mutual Defence Accord" by being present at the official signing of the treaty in Pyongyang?

Do you think that Mr. Trump would be able to convince Congress to ratify a treaty that pledged the US to defend the DPRK if the ROK invaded it?

I don't. I'd love to be wrong, but I won't bet that way.

Do you think that the RF, the PRC, the DPRK, and the ROK would be making as much political mileage out of "This is what the government of the United States of America said it wanted, and when it was handed to them on a silver platter they turned it down. Can you EVER AGAIN trust the US government to be honest in its statements or promises?"?

I do.

 

[bluesmoke]

“I’ll tell you right up front: it’s going to be a partnership,” ...


If Mattis doesn't get along with Bolton, Mattis is gone. Or, Mattis will just be "goned", anyway. Like getting "disappeared."

 

[Tangmo]

All good points and I'd agree with all of them if it weren't for the fact that the collective IQ of the leadership of BOTH the DPRK and the PRC was higher than 50.

One factor that your analysis seems to have missed is the fact that Kim Jung-un is 100% aware of two things:

1. if he attacks the United States of America then the US will retaliate on a MASSIVE scale; and
2. if he attacks the United States of America the PRC will stand by and go "OOOhhhhh" as it watches the pretty coloured lights flashing over the DPRK.

Once you realize that Kim Jung-un knows that if he STARTS a war with the US then the DPRK is 100% certain to lose AND that he is acting rationally in full appreciation of that fact, 99% of the blustering about the "danger to the United States of America from North Korean nuclear weapons" shifts from "hype" to "crap".

You're strategically minded so I'd be confident that you'd get the more complete picture once presented with it. Which is this: The CCP Boyz in Beijing have been working daily for several years to separate U.S. allies of the region from the USA. It is the only way the Boyz can move in to dominate the region and the rich and strong democracies of Japan, SK, Taiwan, most of the ten South China Sea countries, Australia and NZ. Given CCP Boyz can't be invading anyone the Boyz have to maneuver and manipulate both USA and our regional allies to this end. Kim having nukes is a club over the heads of SK, Japan, Taiwan -- everyone in the region. Kim having nukes presents headaches and complications to everyone to include the Boyz. However, the Boyz are feeding the beast in Pyongyang because each the Boyz and Kim have the same purpose, i.e., drive the U.S. out of the region as a factor, then as a player. Kim and the Boyz have their own purposes but it is the commonly shared goal.

Because they have been "gaming" this situation for much longer than the US government has and also because they actually have "inside information" on how the US government and the people making up the US government think while the US government has next to no "inside information" about either the PRC or the DPRK, even less about how their governments (and the people making up their governments) think, and because the President of the United States of America doesn't have a clue about how the __[fill in the blank]__ think or what they actually want to achieve.

Now I will agree that Mr. Kim would "abandon his nukes" if the government of the PRC were to put strong pressure on him to do so.

What I can't agree is that there is any compelling reason for the government of the PRC to do that.

What do you think Mr. Trump will do if the RF, the PRC, the DPRK, and the ROK reach an agreement which will guarantee the borders of each (plus guarantee that all of them would provide military aid to any one of them that was attacked by any other party) as well as significant arms reduction on the Korean Peninsula AND the removal of all but a "training cadre" of foreign troops from the Korean Peninsula and then announce that they have "resolved the Korean problem" and invited Mr. Trump to make the United States of America a party to the "Four Party Peace and Mutual Defence Accord" by being present at the official signing of the treaty in Pyongyang?



Do you think that the RF, the PRC, the DPRK, and the ROK would be making as much political mileage out of "This is what the government of the United States of America said it wanted, and when it was handed to them on a silver platter they turned it down. Can you EVER AGAIN trust the US government to be honest in its statements or promises?"?

I do.

Kim doesn't have to attack anyone nor will Kim nuke anyone. All Kim has to do to separate U.S. allies of the region from USA is to have the nukes and threaten to use 'em against the countries of the region. Beijing can't get enough of Kim doing this either. If Washington is unwilling to take out Kim & Co then the US allies of the region will have to make a separate peace with Kim and Xi Jinping. To exclude USA. So Trump, Mattis, Bolton, Kelly, the Joint Chiefs have found themselves at the point of no return concerning the Pacific - East Asia strategic region of the United States. It's take out Kim & Co now or allow and accept our getting squeezed out of the region as a factor. If USA fails to demonstrate it will stop Kim and do it in the present timeframe, then USA allies will have no choice than to go over to Beijing and to make peace with Kim on Kim's terms, supported by the Dictators in Beijing. Your post is on to this only marginally so you'd need to think it through more -- a lot more.