Eurobonds will happen, but Germany wants the institutions and rules in place first.. a wise but dangerous move.
The trouble Eurobonds have been talked about for over a year now. When will the Euro Countries gain some urgency?
When it is an actual problem. Right now this "crisis" is doing what the German's want... driving the Euro lower, while putting pressure on the problem children to either leave the Euro or fix their structural problems that has caused much of the problems. And the results are different.
Portugal is doing great, Ireland as well. Italy is getting better. Spain is hurting in large part due to market pressures often based on short term profit rather than actual economic figures and facts. And then there is Greece... well, Greece is Greece.
But is it not the, non-exporting countries, that are dragging the Euro down?
No. Italy is a massive manufacturing and exporting nation. Spain is not small either, and its exports have gone up and up. Portugal also is actually doing quite well, meeting its bailout conditions and closing in on, if not passed the critical primary surplus plus a positive balance of payments. As it stands now, Portugal is doing better than Ireland on the macro economic level.. now if Portugal can keep going with its structural changes, then Portugal could very well be the next "tiger" in the industrialised world.
I am in Portugal right now, and things look quite bleak (I though UK Shopping oulets were closing at a rapid rate, here it must be every third shop that has closed), with tourism down etc. I have had some interesting conversations with coach drivers, Hotel staff...all blaming their Politicians for the present crisis.
Paul
Its bleak everywhere in large part thanks to the negative views of the media. It is bleak here in Southern Spain, and people are complaining, but yet the statistics dont exactly match this pessimism. If I look at the local tourist town, it looks packed. Hotels have 75%+ occupancy rating according to the hotel organisation, and the beaches are packed. Of course that does not mean that these tourists spend money, but you can not deny that there are plenty of people here.
Point is, much of the pessimism out there is not based on economic facts, but on negative media coverage... aka the doom and gloom. Even my home country, where the economy is pretty good, most people are pessimistic and think Italy, Spain and so on are in full riot and nearing civil war (yes exaggerating a lot there), where as the reality is much different.
Take my local area.. one would think from the media coverage that businesses are folding like law chairs in Spain, and unemployment is going up and up. Now the reality is, yes some businesses and shops are closing, but new ones come in their places. Unemployment has actually gone down the last few months, more than it normally does during this period. But none of this positive news is relayed through the media... only the negative. For example, in June, Spain gained more new jobs than the US, and in a country 1/4 the size of the US.