Latest polling from three key must win states for Trump.

[nvflash]

poor research. Trump had about 6 months of recovery from lockdown. it was literally a V shaped recovery with massive return of jobs and no inflation. Biden gets is and it all goes to hell

Spend happy politicians and the general public far too happy to accept free money born of debt caused this inflation.

Though sometimes there are things far worse than inflation, such as deflation, economic stagnation, and an all out depression.

However, none of that really matters now, it's in the past, and what does matter is what we do now. I have no faith that either the Democratic or Republican Party have the guts to level with the American people about the true nature of public debt or how dire the situation is.

About how under no system can the good times just roll on and on forever through the pubic debt without any plan in place to keep the debt to a manageable level so it does not reach the point where the interest on the debt alone consumes the entire Federal income.

Even then no plan is foolproof and shit does happen we not only do not expect, but we do not really conceive or plan for.

Still I would feel a lot better if we really had some sort of plan in place to keep the debt and the amount of Federal income for servicing the debt into some reasonable realm based on solid math rather than unrealistic growth projections.

We don't know how much the Fed will have to raise interest rates to get this inflation under control, what we do know is the higher interest rates go, and the longer they stay high, the more we will have to pay to service our debt.

Money spent servicing the debt has to come from somewhere, likely programs that help people lead better lives.

 

[Mach]

Shit Republicans, get your head out of your asses and support someone in the primaries that isn't dangerous to the Republic and our democracy!!!!!
God if only we had open primaries in all states we could put an end to this shit show before it becomes dangerous.

Great post. I agree, and I'd be willing to take someone like Nikki Haley over Biden if that's what it to ensure we don't have to eat that crap sandwich you refer to.
I mean, just normal governance rather than the criminal con, burn it down crew.

 

[JasperL]

ah yes the standard deflection. and I suppose the Biden shitty economy is because of Trump?
Trump gets no credit for a good economy, and is blamed for a Bidenomics crappy economy..got it

No, but if you want to give credit to Trump for the gains post 2016, then it's fair enough to note that Trump inherited a very healthy and growing economy, with already low unemployment rates, and low inflation. When Trump took over, UE was already lower than at any point other than the bubble fueled last years of the Bush administratoin. Then he goosed that already very healthy and growing economy with a bunch of borrowed tax cuts. Did it work? Sure, I guess, but it's a lot easier to deliver good results when what you're handed is already excellent.

And, related, how much credit did the MAGAs give Obama, for the economy he handed off to Trump? None is the right answer.

Then when you call the Biden economy "shitty" at least recognize that the unemployment rate is at or near recent decades' lows, roughly 3.8%, and that's after the Fed has tried like heck to raise rates, and then increase UE and relieve pressure on wages and hiring. Relatedly, median worker wages have actually gone up since 2020. What's been most troublesome or damaging about the "Biden" economy is also inflation, and then you have to be fair about that. Lots of that is WORLD WIDE and has little to nothing to do with any specific action in the U.S. other than the COVID disruptions across the country, red and blue, and in overseas supply chains. Some no doubt was the spending, but then the spending also allowed what's still a 'soft' landing from the COVID disruptions. So would you rather have higher unemployment and lower inflation? That's the likely tradeoff, and it would help current workers, but not those workers without jobs. So it's a trade off.

 

[trouble13]

So three key states for Trump to have any real shot of winning the 2024 Presidential election are within his grasp according to the latest polling.

Biden v. Trump rematch? Voters respond

Presidential Politics Poll Results October 2023

www.mrgmi.com

Pennsylvania 2024 Poll: Young Voters Hesitant to Support Biden but Stick With Sen. Casey - Emerson Polling

Casey Holds Eight-Point Lead Over McCormick in 2024 Matchup An Emerson College Polling survey of…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Given the goings on this sort of boggles the mind, but if you look deep into some of the polls you'll find that most people don't want to see a Trump vs. Biden matchup at all, and I think both men are not only unpopular but wildly unpopular.

My main takeaway from the 2016 election was Hillary Clinton had higher negatives than Trump. That's not a judgment on how fair or unfair her wild unpopularity was, but just a statement of fact.

Even as someone who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 it's hard for me to even imagine how Biden could have higher negatives than Trump at this point. Sure I think Biden is a buffoon, but not a dangerous buffoon, and at this point me calling Trump a dangerous buffoon would be the kindest possible terms I could use to describe how I feel about the man.

Look, I don't want to see Biden win, but if Trump actually pulls this off it's going to be the biggest shot sandwich off all time, and we are all going to be forced to take a bite of it. Whereas if Biden wins we'll just be forced to endure a well meaning buffoon for 4 more years.


Shit Republicans, get your head out of your asses and support someone in the primaries that isn't dangerous to the Republic and our democracy!!!!!

God if only we had open primaries in all states we could put an end to this shit show before it becomes dangerous.

I find it hard to believe that you voted for Trump twice but prefer Biden over Trump in this cycle.

What changed your mind?

 

[anatta]

Point out any national economic data during P11035809's term that changed the trend created by President Obama's terms. Great foreign policy? Ask the Syrian Kurds about his foreign policy. Maybe blaming China for Covid was not the best idea during trade talks. Finally, I can only guess that he spent the three hours during the invasion of our capital masturbating, because he didn't do anything else.

middle class wage gains were prominent under Trump. do you recall the term "1 percenters?" that was used to describe the recovery mostly going to the wealthy instead under Obama
The Kurds were a transactive alliance of convenience to kill ISIS -we never promised them a state, and Turkey would never allow it .In fact Erdogan informed Trump he was going into Syria to take out the "terrorist" (PKK) and move US troops out of the way. Ergodan wasnt asking -he was telling

How many Americans have died in Afghanistan since we left? What did America do to create a Russian or Hamas invasion? Are you still clinging to the false belief that global inflation happened because of America. Specific example of FBI crushing free speech would be interesting.

since we left -we dont know -we do know the bungled withdrawal thru Karzai international instead of Bagram got 13 Americans blown up
I never said the USA spending caused global inflation, but spending much more then needed ( there was still unspent COVID money) by Biden and the McConnel Republicans certainly made it much worse for the USA

See the Twitter files/ FBI for examples of FBI squashing political speech

 

[Callen]

I find it hard to believe that you voted for Trump twice but prefer Biden over Trump in this cycle.

What changed your mind?

I'm going to bet it has something to do with Jan 6th, his 91 indictments, and his preoccupation with his vengeance "it's all about me " campaign

 

[JasperL]

poor research. Trump had about 6 months of recovery from lockdown. it was literally a V shaped recovery with massive return of jobs and no inflation. Biden gets is and it all goes to hell

How did it all go to hell? With the record low UE rate, still at near decades lows? Real GDP growth continuing through today?

 

[anatta]

How did it all go to hell? With the record low UE rate, still at near decades lows? Real GDP growth continuing through today?

purchasing power coupled with high interest rates. the UE treats part time jobs the same as full time. we did have a recession under Biden
but the elephant in the room is inflation and much unneeded/unwanted green spending under the Inflation Reduction Act
( which even Biden says is (misnomer)..Biden polls miserably on the economy

 

[mrjurrs]

middle class wage gains were prominent under Trump. do you recall the term "1 percenters?" that was used to describe the recovery mostly going to the wealthy instead under Obama
The Kurds wee a transactive alliance of convenience to kill ISIS -we never promised them a state, and Turkey would never allow it .In fact Erdogan informed Trump he was going into Syria to take out the "terrorist" (PKK) and move US troops out of the way. Ergodan wasnt asking -he was telling


since e left -we dont know -we do know the bungled withdrawal thru u Karzai international instead of Bagram got 13 Americans blown up
I never said the USA spending caused global inflation, but spending much more then needed ( there was still unspent COVID money) by Biden and the McConnel Republicans certainly made it much worse for the USA

See the Twitter files/ FBI for examples of FBI squashing political speech

Then you should be able to source that fact. But you can't.

And you don't think every other transitive ally we have didn't notice?

Soldiers die in war zones. Withdrawal is one of the most dangerous actions in war. How many Americans have died in Afghanistan since we left?

False claim. Inflation was not much worse in the USA. President Biden's actions have made it much better for the US than almost any other area on Earth. Source your claim.

You claimed it. Show me. Are you referring to the suppression of false information that was leading to people dying?

 

[ataraxia]

So three key states for Trump to have any real shot of winning the 2024 Presidential election are within his grasp according to the latest polling.

Biden v. Trump rematch? Voters respond

Presidential Politics Poll Results October 2023

www.mrgmi.com

Pennsylvania 2024 Poll: Young Voters Hesitant to Support Biden but Stick With Sen. Casey - Emerson Polling

Casey Holds Eight-Point Lead Over McCormick in 2024 Matchup An Emerson College Polling survey of…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Given the goings on this sort of boggles the mind, but if you look deep into some of the polls you'll find that most people don't want to see a Trump vs. Biden matchup at all, and I think both men are not only unpopular but wildly unpopular.

My main takeaway from the 2016 election was Hillary Clinton had higher negatives than Trump. That's not a judgment on how fair or unfair her wild unpopularity was, but just a statement of fact.

Even as someone who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 it's hard for me to even imagine how Biden could have higher negatives than Trump at this point. Sure I think Biden is a buffoon, but not a dangerous buffoon, and at this point me calling Trump a dangerous buffoon would be the kindest possible terms I could use to describe how I feel about the man.

Look, I don't want to see Biden win, but if Trump actually pulls this off it's going to be the biggest shot sandwich off all time, and we are all going to be forced to take a bite of it. Whereas if Biden wins we'll just be forced to endure a well meaning buffoon for 4 more years.


Shit Republicans, get your head out of your asses and support someone in the primaries that isn't dangerous to the Republic and our democracy!!!!!

God if only we had open primaries in all states we could put an end to this shit show before it becomes dangerous.

I was just listening to an interview with Nikki Haley. She sounds very rational and reasonable. I am no Republican, but if she is their nominee, I would seriously consider voting for her. Polls show she could beat Biden in a national head-to-head match. Not sure why she is not doing better in the polls. Is she too reasonable? Or is it just her complexion?

 

[anatta]

Then you should be able to source that fact. But you can't.

source what. please refer to what you ant me to answer

And you don't think every other transitive ally we have didn't notice?

the nature of a transactive alliance is it's not permanent. notice WHAT?

Soldiers die in war zones. Withdrawal is one of the most dangerous actions in war. How many Americans have died in Afghanistan since we left?

This wasnt soldiers KIA. in fct Trump had no KIA under his past yeear in Afghan. Biden cant even do a safe withdrawal because he wanted the military out before the embassy staff, so he used Karzai instead of Bagram

False claim. Inflation was not much worse in the USA. President Biden's actions have made it much better for the US than almost any other area on Earth. Source your claim.

I didnt say "was much worse". 17% inflation is not from "supply chain kinks"

You claimed it. Show me. Are you referring to the suppression of false information that was leading to people dying?

OMG . Spoken like a true believer in the Mininsty of Disinformation . you dont even understand medicine and epidemiology means free flow of ideas must take place

 

[Callen]

I was just listening to an interview with Nikki Haley. She sounds very rational and reasonable. I am no Republican, but if she is their nominee, I would seriously consider voting for her. Polls show she could beat Biden in a national head-to-head match. Not sure why she is not doing better in the polls. Is she too reasonable? Or is it just her skin tone?

I'm not getting why she isn't getting more traction. She is smart, articulate, very conservative and has crucial foreign policy and administrative credentials. I truly believe she would beat Biden and beat him badly. Maybe she isn't isolationist and populist enough fot todays Republican.

 

[ataraxia]

OMG . Spoken like a true believer in the Mininsty of Disinformation . you dont even understand medicine and epidemiology means free flow of ideas must take place

There can be debate and free flow of ideas based on the scientific and medical facts. But Scientific facts themselves cannot be up for public debate and Democratic vote.

 

[anatta]

There can be debate and free flow of ideas based on the scientific and medical facts. But Scientific facts themselves cannot be up for public debate and Democratic vote.

platitude with due respect. The Great Barrnigton Declaration was sound science based on the epidemiology of
herd immunity turns a pandemic into an endemic virus. I wont even get into the stupidity that vaxxing inhibits transmission
( the so called "reason" for the vaxx mandate)

 

[EMNofSeattle]

So three key states for Trump to have any real shot of winning the 2024 Presidential election are within his grasp according to the latest polling.

Biden v. Trump rematch? Voters respond

Presidential Politics Poll Results October 2023

www.mrgmi.com

Pennsylvania 2024 Poll: Young Voters Hesitant to Support Biden but Stick With Sen. Casey - Emerson Polling

Casey Holds Eight-Point Lead Over McCormick in 2024 Matchup An Emerson College Polling survey of…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Given the goings on this sort of boggles the mind, but if you look deep into some of the polls you'll find that most people don't want to see a Trump vs. Biden matchup at all, and I think both men are not only unpopular but wildly unpopular.

My main takeaway from the 2016 election was Hillary Clinton had higher negatives than Trump. That's not a judgment on how fair or unfair her wild unpopularity was, but just a statement of fact.

Even as someone who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 it's hard for me to even imagine how Biden could have higher negatives than Trump at this point. Sure I think Biden is a buffoon, but not a dangerous buffoon, and at this point me calling Trump a dangerous buffoon would be the kindest possible terms I could use to describe how I feel about the man.

Look, I don't want to see Biden win, but if Trump actually pulls this off it's going to be the biggest shot sandwich off all time, and we are all going to be forced to take a bite of it. Whereas if Biden wins we'll just be forced to endure a well meaning buffoon for 4 more years.


Shit Republicans, get your head out of your asses and support someone in the primaries that isn't dangerous to the Republic and our democracy!!!!!

God if only we had open primaries in all states we could put an end to this shit show before it becomes dangerous.

If Trump wins we will have less global war and lower prices. What’s wrong with that? Are you such a servant to the interests of big American corporations you want their representative Joe Biden re-elected to the detriment of the majority of the world population?

 

[CaughtInThe]

i'm always amazed at people who believe polls when they continue to be wrong all the time.

 

[JasperL]

purchasing power coupled with high interest rates.

Right, inflation is a problem. What else?

the UE treats part time jobs the same as full time.

And part time for economic reasons has gone DOWN under the evil Biden.

we did have a recession under Biden

Nope.

but the elephant in the room is inflation

Right - you're repeating yourself. So far we have....inflation, which I addressed.

and much unneeded/unwanted green spending under the Inflation Reduction Act
( which even Biden says is (misnomer)..Biden polls miserably on the economy

Unneeded and unwanted spending (which is your personal preference, opinion) isn't evidence of the economy going to hell.

 

[nvflash]

If Trump wins we will have less global war and lower prices. What’s wrong with that? Are you such a servant to the interests of big American corporations you want their representative Joe Biden re-elected to the detriment of the majority of the world population?

Trump could win, but what do you think the over under is on him ever serving another day as President?

It's not good, and the run up to that, between the day after Election Day and inauguration day will be the biggest shit show of all time.

It's just not worth it, it's a huge black eye for America and all the other free democracies of the world while China and Russia weaken all of us.

If you believe in free market capitalism and republicanism, then you will be better served by just about anyone in the Republican primaries other then Trump without the huge shit show and black eye for America.

If you believe in Trumpism, then there just isn't much hope for you, because if you haven't learned by now about his hyperbole then you are not going to learn.

Sure, when there where some adults in the room between 2017-2020 Trump did alright for us if you could overlook his hyperbole, but Paul Ryan retired from public office and Mitch McConnell is being propped up by his staff until he can get his State funeral.

Who are the adults in the room now?

Who will moderate Trump and his hyperbole into something workable for the American people?

Most everyone else in the Republican Party has fallen in line with Trumpism or has been declared persona non grata within the power structure of the party.

 

[JasperL]

platitude with due respect. The Great Barrnigton Declaration was sound science based on the epidemiology of
herd immunity turns a pandemic into an endemic virus. I wont even get into the stupidity that vaxxing inhibits transmission
( the so called "reason" for the vaxx mandate)

For the original strain, vaccines did a great job preventing infection. Vaccines still 'inhibit transmission' - the VE against infection is still roughly 30%.

And of course the more compelling reason to get vaccinated is so those infected don't DIE, or end up in ICU, and there's no question at all that vaccines then and now do a great job at lessening severity and preventing DEATHS. That in turn lessened the risk of hospitals being overrun with COVID cases from unvaccinated morons. In my own town, those in the hospital and ICU in the Sept surge were about 80% unvaccinated.

So if you're, say, an employer and you know vaccines reduce the chance of serious illness, what do you do? Pony up the $100-200K per serious illness, or pay for vaccines? Do you not care if COVID runs rampant through your workplace, or get everyone vaccinated so the odds of that - a serious and long lasting shortage of workers - goes way down? Plus, vaccines DID and DO slow transmission. So of course vaccine 'mandates' made sense from a business perspective, a public health perspective, and just based on

But of course we've talked about this endlessly, so we know we have the DATA on our side, and you do not. I'll also say this, broadly - the GOP stance on COVID vaccinations - is when my view of the MAGA wing went from strongly disagree to disgust. People in power who KNEW better took positions on vaccines that quite literally killed who knows how many thousands, and subjected 10X that to unnecessary stays in hospital and ICU, and they did it either knowing the data and taking a position contrary to the data and the health of those who elected them, or were too stupid and lazy to examine the data. They knew it worked politically, and that's ALL that mattered.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Trump could win, but what do you think the over under is on him ever serving another day as President?

It's not good, and the run up to that, between the day after Election Day and inauguration day will be the biggest shit show of all time.

It's just not worth it, it's a huge black eye for America and all the other free democracies of the world while China and Russia weaken all of us.

If you believe in free market capitalism and republicanism, then you will be better served by just about anyone in the Republican primaries other then Trump without the huge shit show and black eye for America.

If you believe in Trumpism, then there just isn't much hope for you, because if you haven't learned by now about his hyperbole then you are not going to learn.

Sure, when there where some adults in the room between 2017-2020 Trump did alright for us if you could overlook his hyperbole, but Paul Ryan retired from public office and Mitch McConnell is being propped up by his staff until he can get his State funeral.

Who are the adults in the room now?

Who will moderate Trump and his hyperbole into something workable for the American people?

Most everyone else in the Republican Party has fallen in line with Trumpism or has been declared persona non grata within the power structure of the party.

Trump may well never serve another day in office true, because the left is likely being primed for violence and to support a coup if Trump is elected. The left has no intention of allowing trump to take office if he wins and it’s an open question how far they will go

 

[JasperL]

Trump may well never serve another day in office true, because the left is likely being primed for violence and to support a coup if Trump is elected. The left has no intention of allowing trump to take office if he wins and it’s an open question how far they will go

It's always projection with the MAGAs.....

 

[EMNofSeattle]

For the original strain, vaccines did a great job preventing infection. Vaccines still 'inhibit transmission' - the VE against infection is still roughly 30%.

And of course the more compelling reason to get vaccinated is so those infected don't DIE, or end up in ICU, and there's no question at all that vaccines then and now do a great job at lessening severity and preventing DEATHS. That in turn lessened the risk of hospitals being overrun with COVID cases from unvaccinated morons. In my own town, those in the hospital and ICU in the Sept surge were about 80% unvaccinated.

So if you're, say, an employer and you know vaccines reduce the chance of serious illness, what do you do? Pony up the $100-200K per serious illness, or pay for vaccines? Do you not care if COVID runs rampant through your workplace, or get everyone vaccinated so the odds of that - a serious and long lasting shortage of workers - goes way down? Plus, vaccines DID and DO slow transmission. So of course vaccine 'mandates' made sense from a business perspective, a public health perspective, and just based on

But of course we've talked about this endlessly, so we know we have the DATA on our side, and you do not. I'll also say this, broadly - the GOP stance on COVID vaccinations - is when my view of the MAGA wing went from strongly disagree to disgust. People in power who KNEW better took positions on vaccines that quite literally killed who knows how many thousands, and subjected 10X that to unnecessary stays in hospital and ICU, and they did it either knowing the data and taking a position contrary to the data and the health of those who elected them, or were too stupid and lazy to examine the data. They knew it worked politically, and that's ALL that mattered.

Blah blah blah.

We don’t need corporate propaganda from Pfizer

 

[Jason Warfield]

you should look at household median income gains, record low unemployment for minorities and women, solid growth without inflation and an outstanding foreign policy with no new wars and substantive trade talks with China derailed by COvid.

Look at BIdens record in comparison. a botched Afghan withdrawal, 2 wars, and a reduction in household median income. Oh and the Ministry of Truth facilitated by a fascist FBI crushing free speech, and 17% inflation speech

The household median DID go up as you said....then with COVID, it dropped....all during Trump's administration....then at the start of Biden's, it went back up. Inflation started under Trump and has continued under Biden, but is had slowed down and is currently down since September. To be fair: it is kind of going up and down lately, so we shall see where it ultimately lands. Also to be fair: it went up and up during Trump and first half of Biden's administrations. So, just as Biden can't be excused, Trump sure as hell can't be excused either.

Define employment. If by employment you mean a living wage with benefits, then no. If by employment you mean part-time jobs that paid little and with no benefits, then yes. I mean, technically, it's true...but shitty jobs that don't pay bills is only slightly and marginally better than no job that doesn't pay the bills.

Trump's outstanding foreign policy led the way for Iran to resume working on a nuclear weapon and allowed the North Koreans to detonate a bomb. Vocally supported a failed coup in Venezuela, started a trade war with China that ended badly for us, destroyed our presence in the Middle East and generally speaking....made us a laughing stock to the world. Enough so, that it encouraged Putin to plan his invasion of Ukraine...remember, Trump said after Putin annexed Crimea that he was Ok with the fact that “the rest of Ukraine will fall … fairly quickly.” In addition to withholding 400 million in aid to Ukraine over Biden and only grudgingly gave a modest amount of aid to Ukraine when it was politically expedient to do so.

I am going to give you the no new wars point....but...it should be noted that a blockade of another nation is technically an act of war and he did that against Iran. Also, while not wars, he did initiate various strikes....when again...it was politically expedient to do so. Example: Syria.

Yes, the withdrawal from Afghanistan was botched...but...we were obligated to follow the plan that Trump had set up. So, if you blame Biden for the botched withdrawal...you are forced to blame Trump for the plan that Biden followed.
As far as free speech goes...take the tin foil hat off. You have free speech. What you are mad about is being forced to deal with the consequences of your speech which has nothing to do with the government and the FBI.

Side notes related to this:

 

[JasperL]

Blah blah blah.

We don’t need corporate propaganda from Pfizer

Fine, show me the DATA. I don't actually give one damn what randos on the interwebs say. There's nothing I claimed that I can't have haven't repeatedly backed up with DATA. So it's not propaganda - it's what the EVIDENCE shows.

If you disagree, show your work. I know you cannot and so will not. It's really that simple, and so predictable that you will fail, it's pathetic and sad at this point.

Just anecdotally - TN did a great job for the first year or so, and we were way down on deaths per million. Now we're competing for WORST IN THE COUNTRY. The reason is clear - we are at the bottom for vaccination rates. That makes me angry that people in power ENCOURAGED that result. Should make everyone angry who cares about the evidence, and about other people.

 

[gbg3]

Shit Republicans, get your head out of your asses and support someone in the primaries that isn't dangerous to the Republic and our democracy!!!!!

How things change.

I don't mean you specifically, but it wasn't long ago Dems were begging GOP voters to please nominate Trump since, in their opinion, Biden would easily beat Trump. How things change!