• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every persons position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Kyle Bass: 'Confessions of a Dangerous Mind'

mbig

onomatopoeic
DP Veteran
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
10,350
Reaction score
4,989
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Why do the best Hedge Fund managers make more than a billion a year?
They earn it.
This from a year ago, but still very relevant today, and for the next few years.
Some shocking and Pessimistic predictions made utterly logical by one of the 'smartest guys in the room'.
More for the financially sophisticated but I think most can understand.
Avoid it at your own peril.
Some wryly entertaining moments as well.


 
Last edited:

Mach

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
20,388
Reaction score
11,954
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
Everyone should listen to that.

If I had to put this into political context, the party position that is most in-tune with this is which party/sub-party?
 

mbig

onomatopoeic
DP Veteran
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
10,350
Reaction score
4,989
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Everyone should listen to that.
Everyone should indeed. This is who we need as President or chief economic advisor.
He should go on Television and explain the situation to the country, with numbers/charts.
Of course We never elect people who tell us the painful truth. Ever.
We elect the opposite.
We Can't pay for benefits and/or we have to raise their taxes. Both/enormous pain.
Interesting to his explanation of "Part D" being a recent but gigantic disaster.

If I had to put this into political context, the party position that is most in-tune with this is which party/sub-party?
Tea Party of course. But this guy's done far more.
I don't know if you watched the last 15 minutes, didn't seem as if you had enough time.
But the Japan predictions are Worse and inescapable.

I have been watching 'whos online' and...
You are the only one I saw giving the OP more than a minute. (looked like you spend app 48 before reply)
All except you, while I was watching, just blinked in and out after a few seconds.
I tried to preface the vid with who he was. No matter.
People would rather spend 45 minutes watching the Dopes in the Pres debate Cain's/9/9/9 (or 'Terra Nova') than someone of rare intellect.
America marches on. Probably have to raise SAT scores 50 pts Again as we get dumber.
 
Last edited:

Mach

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
20,388
Reaction score
11,954
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
I don't know if you watched the last 15 minutes, didn't seem as if you had enough time.
True! I still have 1/3 of the queue left to watch (left for lunch). Finishing now.

Probably have to raise SAT scores 50 pts Again as we get dumber.
The issue is our politics/finance system, not our average IQ. He mentioned that swiss banking presidents carry personal liability for their bank....for example, this can make a huge change in behavior, irrespective of IQ.

Or like he mentioned he was showing some of his very basic, accessible-to-everyone world debt data to a government expert on these matters, and the guy had not yet seen these numbers and was saying "I had no idea it was this bad". That's not an IQ issue. He simply wasn't doing his job, and is not held accountable for not doing it..
 

mbig

onomatopoeic
DP Veteran
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
10,350
Reaction score
4,989
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
True! I still have 1/3 of the queue left to watch (left for lunch). Finishing now.
:^) I can do the math.

The issue is our politics/finance system, not our average IQ. He mentioned that swiss banking presidents carry personal liability for their bank....for example, this can make a huge change in behavior, irrespective of IQ.
Yes the "give a blank" factor. Our politicians aren't around long enough to.
But I disagree about avg IQ. A smart populace could never elect a 'W' (I consider him an embarrassment) and many in the congress beside.
Never approve of unfunded liabilities. Candidates who do make our policy telling lies.

Or like he mentioned he was showing so
me of his very basic, accessible-to-everyone world debt data to a government expert on these matters, and the guy had not yet seen these numbers and was saying "I had no idea it was this bad". That's not an IQ issue. He simply wasn't doing his job, and is not held accountable for not doing it..
the Data is already accessible. The basic facts of Tax/spend/simple-math around for 30 years. Stupid/greedy people don't want to know the numbers and elect people who lie about them.
We have Less educated/stupider people every year. More people who know less than "a fifth grader".
Many more than ever can't name our VP or find France on an unmarked map or do simple algebra.
You can make it through the system an intellectual wasteland.
 
Last edited:

Mach

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
20,388
Reaction score
11,954
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
The overarching theme I get from this is pretty basic, one that everyone banters about from time to time.

A nations economy is and always will be, cyclical.
Most political structures of note on earth will not willingly preside over a downcycle.
They will therefore do everything they can to hide this, because it's not popular. Hiding it in accounting, borrowing, ponzi scheme, etc.
Reality will eventually (3-4 years) start calling the bluffs. Iceland was already called, Greece, is being called, others in the EU and Japan, are soon to follow.

Fallout from this he suggests will be:

Japan realizing its debt is sufficient to destabalize the world, there will be another war. (wow)

Aftermath: The developing nations work harder than we do, and the U.S. and other developed nations will lose wealth...that's the end scenario.

Notice that developing nations are cited as working harder, not being higher IQ....99% perspiration eh?

So funny that people harassed Rick Perry for saying entitlement are a ponzi scheme.
This guy raised that bet, he claimed essentially the economies of the developed world are one big ponzi scheme....doh!
 
Last edited:

Mach

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
20,388
Reaction score
11,954
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
Wow, what a depressing cynical video. Thanks for the downer Mbig.
Depressing and cynical? Surely you have something to comment on if you watched it. Do you think it's BS for example? Do you think he personally is depressed, given that they will probably make billions off accepting this sort of thing? How do you see your own political position contrasted with his position? Etc.
 

mbig

onomatopoeic
DP Veteran
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
10,350
Reaction score
4,989
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Depressing and cynical? Surely you have something to comment on if you watched it. Do you think it's BS for example? Do you think he personally is depressed, given that they will probably make billions off accepting this sort of thing? How do you see your own political position contrasted with his position? Etc.
I LIVE to see people this smart explain their views.
One of life's great gifts.
How many opportunities do you get to see someone that knowledgeable and potentially profitable. I have already availed myself of his info in establishing a long term currency position.
There are probably only a handful of people on the planet who have his financial savy.
It costs a million dollars to have lunch with Buffett.
This was a Freebee and this guy is arguably smarter. Go for it!

As Bass say's .. 'He gets paid to be a Realist, not an optimist or pessimist'... and Boy Does he get Paid.
Did I already agree on many levels... sure. But he lays it out wider and better than I have the resources to.
 
Last edited:

iliveonramen

Pontificator
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 23, 2011
Messages
11,257
Reaction score
5,711
Location
On a Gravy Train with Biscuit Wheels
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
Depressing and cynical? Surely you have something to comment on if you watched it. Do you think it's BS for example? Do you think he personally is depressed, given that they will probably make billions off accepting this sort of thing? How do you see your own political position contrasted with his position? Etc.
The video is depressing because there is a lot of truth to what he says. He's definately a cynical guy, that's not a bad thing. His cynicism is why he sent out private investigators to do the research that eventually uncovered the truth behind those CDO's.

I don't think it's BS at all. I find it interesting that he looks at say Medicare part D and says it's unsustainable without any modification. How about giving the government the ability to negotiate drug prices like the VA and the rest of the world does?

He touches briefly on the fact that government revenue is 16% of GDP (a low) then jumps straight into "we can't pay for entitlements". He states the increasing retirement age then completely getting rid of Medicare. What replaces it? Do old people now live on minimum incomes with no insurance? Why exactly is raising revenue to pay for the costs not even mentioned? He doesn't even mention the cost of health care in the US compared to other countries and how much higher it is. He speaks of radical change but the radical change is just to cut benefits off from the most amount of Americans possible while turning off Medicare.

As far as his views on US workers compared to Chinese workers its typical neo-liberalism economics. As if American consumers must continue to buy goods from Chinese workers that work at rates and hours that we have outlawed in the US. It's a belief that there is no recourse or other option, even though protectionism has been the norm in the US much longer than "free Markets". The fact is, he takes the view that the avg American should have the working conditions of the Average Chines peasant, with no social safety nets.

Yeah, it's an unpopular view because ultimately good luck asking Americans to accept that bill of goods. He mentions exports will grow the economy, we don't need exports to grow the economy, we're a net importer. Our issue is cheap goods flowing into our markets using working conditions that no industrialized economy in the world agrees with. The only reason the globalization and free markets was bought into is that people sold Americans this idea that "all boats rise together". Now the story is "we'll...now your'e going to have to work like a Chinese peasant". What do you think the outcome will be? I personally think protectionism will start spreading again. That industrialized countries will have to make a decision, do we buy continue to buy into this idea that labor markets are just a race to the bottom or do industrilized countries set some basic standards for countries that want to take advantage of our labor markets.

Right now we have a system that deeply benefits this guy (capital markets) while stiffing the working man. Once again, we'll have to wait and see, are people going to "buck up" and see their living conditions deteriote in order to provide maximum profit by shareholders? I wouldn't hold your breath.

I lot of the things I agree with him on is the fact that there is a debt crises brewing in Europe and that it will take desperate measures to rectify it.
 

Mach

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
20,388
Reaction score
11,954
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
He touches briefly on the fact that government revenue is 16% of GDP (a low) then jumps straight into "we can't pay for entitlements". He states the increasing retirement age then completely getting rid of Medicare. What replaces it? Do old people now live on minimum incomes with no insurance?
What did they do before medicare? You may need to plan for long term care, and then work to fund it. That's what I do. You?
Government left those programs in place after the last crash. We had them for times we did not need them, and now that we may need them, we won't be able to afford them. Once government offers money to the public, we will never vote it away, it has to crash to get us to release that death-grip, is the theme I see here. And eventually we'll realize the loss. And those who milked the system will benefit, and the people left footing the bill (me, you?) will pay their way.

Why exactly is raising revenue to pay for the costs not even mentioned? .
My guess is because it's a drop in the bucket, raising 10% taxes isn't going to touch it. Also, he mentions structural problem. A tax increase won't be solving that...

The fact is, he takes the view that the avg American should have the working conditions of the Average Chines peasant, with no social safety nets.
I don't think so. He notes specifically that he believes they will continue to make huge gains in the end (asia non-japan). Look at China over the past 10 years, it's not peasants, it's a world record increase in the size and quality of life of their populace, a booming middle classs. What's happening is they are moving up very fast towards developed nations because they are starting so far behind. They are quickly going to reach developed status. We are adjusting downards, because we're artificially creating growth via debt. It is that American are going to have to adjust to live on what they earn, not live like peasants! And when the dust settles, we've got more competition with Asia. Protectionism cannot change these things for the benefit long-term in any serious way.

The only reason the globalization and free markets was bought into is that people sold Americans this idea that "all boats rise together".
Only when americans admit that even though their pay did not increase relative, their smart phone that is faster and smarter than the worlds most expensive multi-million dollar super computers of just decades ago IS a rise in their ****ing boat!!! OR that their internet is a HUGE rise in their boat! Compare that to books, brick and mortar, and snail mail...the improvement is staggering,but what do liberals say? It's a ****ing constitutional right!!! Open your eyes, your boat is rising, theirs is just rising a lot faster because they are starting so terribly far behind. Just as we did when we boomed decades ago...

Right now we have a system that deeply benefits this guy (capital markets) while stiffing the working man
Reality benefits brains, guts, realism. Only a fool would suggest we have a system that benefits no-brains, no-guts, and a lack of realism. Then again, it's just what we've been doing!

. Once again, we'll have to wait and see, are people going to "buck up" and see their living conditions deteriote in order to provide maximum profit by shareholders? I wouldn't hold your breath.
They won't have a choice, is the point I take away.

I lot of the things I agree with him on is the fact that there is a debt crises brewing in Europe and that it will take desperate measures to rectify it.
Really it looked like you disagreed with a lot, and agreed only on a few things!
So you think it will take desperate measures, but you don't think that would include dropping standard of living? Interesting!

Very glad you posted, you had a lot to write!!
 

iliveonramen

Pontificator
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 23, 2011
Messages
11,257
Reaction score
5,711
Location
On a Gravy Train with Biscuit Wheels
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
What did they do before medicare? You may need to plan for long term care, and then work to fund it. That's what I do. You?
Government left those programs in place after the last crash. We had them for times we did not need them, and now that we may need them, we won't be able to afford them. Once government offers money to the public, we will never vote it away, it has to crash to get us to release that death-grip, is the theme I see here. And eventually we'll realize the loss. And those who milked the system will benefit, and the people left footing the bill (me, you?) will pay their way.
I in my late 20's and I would be holding the bag so I do have a vested interests in either scrapping the system if people don't want to fund it or fix it if people want it/are willing to pay for it.

I personally think we should fix it. Medicare was passed in the 60's when retirees were living is poverty and couldn't afford medical care. I don't believe we should have a system where cost is the defining feature on if you get medical care or not. I don't care if someone drives a jag and someone else drives a bicycle. I do care if someone gets heart medication because they can afford it and someone has a heartattack because they can't.

My guess is because it's a drop in the bucket, raising 10% taxes isn't going to touch it. Also, he mentions structural problem. A tax increase won't be solving that...
A agree, you can't raise taxes solely to fix the problem. There are structural problems and they should be focused on as well. Boomers retiring are going to hurt financially this country. People live longer. Medical costs continue to rise. We know the problems therefore they can be fixed.
I don't think so. He notes specifically that he believes they will continue to make huge gains in the end (asia non-japan). Look at China over the past 10 years, it's not peasants, it's a world record increase in the size and quality of life of their populace, a booming middle classs. What's happening is they are moving up very fast towards developed nations because they are starting so far behind. They are quickly going to reach developed status. We are adjusting downards, because we're artificially creating growth via debt. It is that American are going to have to adjust to live on what they earn, not live like peasants! And when the dust settles, we've got more competition with Asia. Protectionism cannot change these things for the benefit long-term in any serious way.
I agree with the majority of what you say. Yes Chinese living conditions are rising. Yes Americans continually live on debt to fund their lifestyle. I see no problem with scaling back, the issue I have is that after Chinese labor is too expensive they will send more jobs to India. They are already building factories in Vietnam and outher S.E. Countries. How long before Africa is the new cheap labor hotbed? What happens if the Chinese never fix working conditions? There is the fact China is a totalitarian regime with no social safety nets and every incentive to keep their population employed. I wouldn' say protectionism in a strict sense (just to decrease exports arbitrarily) but if Modern Democracies want to apply "fair" working conditions to their populations than a company should not be able to move and just bypass those working conditions.

Only when americans admit that even though their pay did not increase relative, their smart phone that is faster and smarter than the worlds most expensive multi-million dollar super computers of just decades ago IS a rise in their ****ing boat!!! OR that their internet is a HUGE rise in their boat! Compare that to books, brick and mortar, and snail mail...the improvement is staggering,but what do liberals say? It's a ****ing constitutional right!!! Open your eyes, your boat is rising, theirs is just rising a lot faster because they are starting so terribly far behind. Just as we did when we boomed decades ago...
Why do people always point to technological advances as if they didn't exist before Reaganomics...yes things get cheaper as technology improves and becomes cheaper over time. All of those goods you mention have increased greatly over time and cheaper in price as the technology aged. It's nothing new and attributing it strictly to globaliztion is false.

Reality benefits brains, guts, realism. Only a fool would suggest we have a system that benefits no-brains, no-guts, and a lack of realism. Then again, it's just what we've been doing!
The guy followed up on checking if CDO's were correctly priced! There are others that did the same thing. The difference between someone that made money off of the bubble and those that didn't is to actually do their homework! Don't get me wrong, this guy is obviously a very smart guy but tons of people on Wall Street made tons of money off the bubble so what makes them worthy of million dollar bonuses again?

Really it looked like you disagreed with a lot, and agreed only on a few things!
So you think it will take desperate measures, but you don't think that would include dropping standard of living? Interesting!
The US is drastically different from Europe despite the rhetoric here. The EU taxes their population much higher, their government spending makes up a much higher % of their GDP and they are running very high deficits. Now large stable countries like Germany/France/England can probably salvage themselves but Greece, Spain, Ireland, countries that were poor before the bubble are screwed plain and simple. The guy does point out there differences in every chart between those Euro countries and the US. Our government is fine, but our citizens have racked up massive debt. That's the difference between the two.

Very glad you posted, you had a lot to write!!
I enjoy debating economics and enjoy our discussions.
 

Mach

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
20,388
Reaction score
11,954
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
A agree, you can't raise taxes solely to fix the problem. There are structural problems and they should be focused on as well. Boomers retiring are going to hurt financially this country. People live longer. Medical costs continue to rise. We know the problems therefore they can be fixed.
Yeah, by dropping benefits and reducing the standard of living. That is the only fix to entitlements. Politicians/government it is argued, will end up making this far more painful than it would have been if they had only helped during a crisis, rather than spent so much at all other times, I think is the point.

How long before Africa is the new cheap labor hotbed?
We can only hope they attain that some time soon. They are considered a huge burden right now, if they get stable enough to start providing basic freedoms and services to most of the population, the last thing we'll be concerned about is restricting their freedom to work for a living in the global market.

Why do people always point to technological advances as if they didn't exist before Reaganomics...yes things get cheaper as technology improves and becomes cheaper over time. All of those goods you mention have increased greatly over time and cheaper in price as the technology aged. It's nothing new and attributing it strictly to globaliztion is false.
I raisrd that in response to "all boats rise together". Cheaper labor, if utilized by the U.S. efficiently, raises our boats too. Our taxbase, our GDP, pays off our debt, etc. Are you saying that is not helped by foreign trade and labor?

The guy followed up on checking if CDO's were correctly priced! There are others that did the same thing. The difference between someone that made money off of the bubble and those that didn't is to actually do their homework! Don't get me wrong, this guy is obviously a very smart guy but tons of people on Wall Street made tons of money off the bubble so what makes them worthy of million dollar bonuses again?
They did their homework?
Who is making the deal with them, that gave them the opportunity to apply that hard work and make a profit? Someone believes they are getting a deal from them, someone who is apparently in over their head either in terms of knowledge, or debt.

Our government is fine, but our citizens have racked up massive debt. That's the difference between the two.
I took it that both government and the people racked up debt, and that both are a problem. Only that our problem is not as severe as in other nations. And, that neither will be fixed unless they are shocked into admitting they can't just keep avoiding it.
 

1Perry

Banned
Joined
Jun 26, 2011
Messages
7,624
Reaction score
1,859
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
I can understand people clicking off while listening to that lady read from her paper and the next guy rambling on........ I'm trying....
 

1Perry

Banned
Joined
Jun 26, 2011
Messages
7,624
Reaction score
1,859
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
About 15 minutes in....."It's not rocket science".

"We expect 7-8% from here on out" Where he rolls his eyes and says "right".

"we have to cut a trillion dollars". Who's plan does just that?

Sorry, the guy on the left is mind numbing boring.

20 minutes in. Effin right. Bernanke is a buffoon who had no idea what he was doing because he completely dismissed human nature. He knew his theoretical discussions from school but they are just that. Look, I'm not saying I'm anywhere near as smart as this guy but I've made this arguement ever since TARP was first discussed. It's not rocket science.

"We printed a trillion seven and only got a small bump". Again, this has been clear for quite awhile.

"We are not going to see a multiplying effect". "We have to take the losses. We haven't taken the losses". MY ARGUEMENT for a long time. We should have taken the losses right off the bat. We would be so much further along today. Now we still have to take these losses and we are so much farther in the hole now.

Half through.....I'll get the rest later.
 

imagep

Villiage Idiot
DP Veteran
Joined
May 7, 2010
Messages
24,399
Reaction score
10,426
Location
Upstate SC
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
His chart on retail sales conflicts with one that someone was presenting on DP in the last few weeks. So who is the lier?
 

1Perry

Banned
Joined
Jun 26, 2011
Messages
7,624
Reaction score
1,859
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
His chart on retail sales conflicts with one that someone was presenting on DP in the last few weeks. So who is the lier?
I haven't been able to watch the rest but one possible explaination here is that this discussions seems to be quite a few months old. He talks about Bernie getting ready to enact QE2 which was awhile ago (and pretty much did what he said, very little)
 

imagep

Villiage Idiot
DP Veteran
Joined
May 7, 2010
Messages
24,399
Reaction score
10,426
Location
Upstate SC
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
He touches briefly on the fact that government revenue is 16% of GDP (a low) then jumps straight into "we can't pay for entitlements". He states the increasing retirement age then completely getting rid of Medicare. What replaces it? Do old people now live on minimum incomes with no insurance? Why exactly is raising revenue to pay for the costs not even mentioned? He doesn't even mention the cost of health care in the US compared to other countries and how much higher it is. He speaks of radical change but the radical change is just to cut benefits off from the most amount of Americans possible while turning off Medicare.
I made the exact same observation.

As far as his views on US workers compared to Chinese workers its typical neo-liberalism economics. As if American consumers must continue to buy goods from Chinese workers that work at rates and hours that we have outlawed in the US. It's a belief that there is no recourse or other option, even though protectionism has been the norm in the US much longer than "free Markets". The fact is, he takes the view that the avg American should have the working conditions of the Average Chines peasant, with no social safety nets.

Yeah, it's an unpopular view because ultimately good luck asking Americans to accept that bill of goods. He mentions exports will grow the economy, we don't need exports to grow the economy, we're a net importer. Our issue is cheap goods flowing into our markets using working conditions that no industrialized economy in the world agrees with. The only reason the globalization and free markets was bought into is that people sold Americans this idea that "all boats rise together". Now the story is "we'll...now your'e going to have to work like a Chinese peasant". What do you think the outcome will be? I personally think protectionism will start spreading again. That industrialized countries will have to make a decision, do we buy continue to buy into this idea that labor markets are just a race to the bottom or do industrilized countries set some basic standards for countries that want to take advantage of our labor markets.
I agree with that also.

Right now we have a system that deeply benefits this guy (capital markets) while stiffing the working man. Once again, we'll have to wait and see, are people going to "buck up" and see their living conditions deteriote in order to provide maximum profit by shareholders? I wouldn't hold your breath.

I lot of the things I agree with him on is the fact that there is a debt crises brewing in Europe and that it will take desperate measures to rectify it.
Dang, you said basically EVERYTHING that I would have. Only you said it better, and saved me a lot of time.
 

mbig

onomatopoeic
DP Veteran
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
10,350
Reaction score
4,989
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I can understand people clicking off while listening to that lady read from her paper and the next guy rambling on........ I'm trying....
About 15 minutes in....."It's not rocket science".
"We expect 7-8% from here on out" Where he rolls his eyes and says "right".
"we have to cut a trillion dollars". Who's plan does just that?
Sorry, the guy on the left is mind numbing boring.
20 minutes in. Effin right. Bernanke is a buffoon who had no idea what he was doing because he completely dismissed human nature. He knew his theoretical discussions from school but they are just that. Look, I'm not saying I'm anywhere near as smart as this guy but I've made this arguement ever since TARP was first discussed. It's not rocket science.
"We printed a trillion seven and only got a small bump". Again, this has been clear for quite awhile.
"We are not going to see a multiplying effect". "We have to take the losses. We haven't taken the losses". MY ARGUEMENT for a long time. We should have taken the losses right off the bat. We would be so much further along today. Now we still have to take these losses and we are so much farther in the hole now.
Half through.....I'll get the rest later.
I haven't been able to watch the rest but one possible explaination here is that this discussions seems to be quite a few months old. He talks about Bernie getting ready to enact QE2 which was awhile ago (and pretty much did what he said, very little)
Of all the replies, yours, divided/drueled into 3 POSs (2 one liners) no less, was the only Pathetic one.
Childish unsubstantial Sarcasm, transparently trying to put down/Diminish something Extremely important and at the very least potentially shattering to this country and Western economies.
(and you can substitute 'Operation Twist' for QE2)
 
Last edited:

mbig

onomatopoeic
DP Veteran
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
10,350
Reaction score
4,989
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I in my late 20's and I would be holding the bag so I do have a vested interests in either scrapping the system if people don't want to fund it or fix it if people want it/are willing to pay for it.
If he's right, and I think the numbers bear him out, you can't afford 'the bag' barring an 80% income tax on everyone.

I personally think we should fix it. Medicare was passed in the 60's when retirees were living is poverty and couldn't afford medical care. I don't believe we should have a system where cost is the defining feature on if you get medical care or not. I don't care if someone drives a jag and someone else drives a bicycle. I do care if someone gets heart medication because they can afford it and someone has a heartattack because they can't.
He explained he Could fix SS by just moving the age but not Medicare.
He also explained that Medicare Part D alone, passed by Bush in 2007, Already is a bigger Unfunded liability than SS. (!)

Never mind the older parts that have huge COLAs yearly and an ever aging demographic that would leave 20-something's like you in no position to pay for ie... me!
No way.
I've known/said for 20 years the only way they're paying me my SS is with 'Monopoly Money'. Feels truer every year.
Of course, diluted dollars are easier to give way than Medical care that really does keep up with inflation.

A agree, you can't raise taxes solely to fix the problem. There are structural problems and they should be focused on as well. Boomers retiring are going to hurt financially this country. People live longer. Medical costs continue to rise. We know the problems therefore they can be fixed.
SS can be fixed as Bass says.
Medicare will probably have to be Gutted to do so. See above.

I agree with the majority of what you say. Yes Chinese living conditions are rising. Yes Americans continually live on debt to fund their lifestyle. I see no problem with scaling back, the issue I have is that after Chinese labor is too expensive they will send more jobs to India. They are already building factories in Vietnam and outher S.E. Countries. How long before Africa is the new cheap labor hotbed? What happens if the Chinese never fix working conditions? There is the fact China is a totalitarian regime with no social safety nets and every incentive to keep their population employed. I wouldn' say protectionism in a strict sense (just to decrease exports arbitrarily) but if Modern Democracies want to apply "fair" working conditions to their populations than a company should not be able to move and just bypass those working conditions.
[Due to irresponsible leadership] We're going into these Huge Unfunded demographic burdens with Huge Deficits already.
It's true we have a few years we need to spend, but we are going to come out the other side, IF we do, with LARGE Structural deficits. Even reversing Bush Tax cuts it's not Near enough.
We're talking IMO, Cutting post-recovery (IF we 'recover'), spending 25% And raising Taxes 25%. Everyone will be squeezed.
And since, as Bass points out, virtually all jobs have come at least semi-subsidized from govt (Healthcare, defense, etc) we'd have not much economy to draw revenues from.

The guy followed up on checking if CDO's were correctly priced! There are others that did the same thing. The difference between someone that made money off of the bubble and those that didn't is to actually do their homework! Don't get me wrong, this guy is obviously a very smart guy but tons of people on Wall Street made tons of money off the bubble so what makes them worthy of million dollar bonuses again?
Thats why I posted THIS guy.. He makes a good case lessons have Not been learned. (Japanese CDO's at less than one basis point)

The US is drastically different from Europe despite the rhetoric here. The EU taxes their population much higher, their government spending makes up a much higher % of their GDP and they are running very high deficits. Now large stable countries like Germany/France/England can probably salvage themselves but Greece, Spain, Ireland, countries that were poor before the bubble are screwed plain and simple. The guy does point out there differences in every chart between those Euro countries and the US. Our government is fine, but our citizens have racked up massive debt. That's the difference between the two.
We're among the worst deficit countries relative to govt revenues. The only 3 worse? Lebanon, Greece, Zimbabwe.

I enjoy debating economics and enjoy our discussions.
I like your posts and your politics.
But we must never confuse reality/math with politics.
We have to change our govt policies and take the opportunity to personally profit (for survival and otherwise) when we see imbalances.
 
Last edited:

1Perry

Banned
Joined
Jun 26, 2011
Messages
7,624
Reaction score
1,859
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
Of all the replies, yours, divided/drueled into 3 POSs (2 one liners) no less, was the only Pathetic one.
Childish unsubstantial Sarcasm, transparently trying to put down/Diminish something Extremely important and at the very least potentially shattering to this country and Western economies.
(and you can substitute 'Operation Twist' for QE2)
LOL, I think I'm the only one who has agreed with him up to the point I've been able to watch. Please outside of my believing the moderators were boring and hard to listen to, what did I post that you disagree with?
 

washunut

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 13, 2009
Messages
11,660
Reaction score
3,347
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
Why do the best Hedge Fund managers make more than a billion a year?
They earn it.
This from a year ago, but still very relevant today, and for the next few years.
Some shocking and Pessimistic predictions made utterly logical by one of the 'smartest guys in the room'.
More for the financially sophisticated but I think most can understand.
Avoid it at your own peril.
Some wryly entertaining moments as well.


Smart guy who makes a lot of sense. Something that I would have liked to see him cover is the nations who are the creditor nations and what they do with their excess cash. These monies have to be invested somewhere which is helping to hold down rates. I would also have liked hear what he thinks about the Fed increasing it's balance sheet, and how much more of this they can do before other holders of debt react.

His timing in 2010 giving Greece about 18 months seems to be scarily close to reality as that one is hitting the fan. It also will be interesting to see the knock on effects of giving the Greeks a haircut on their debt. What happens when other nations ( perhaps even in the U.S.) say why should we go through an austerity program, let the bondholders suffer.

I wish he had spoken about what he is looking into as alternative investments based on these views.
 

oldreliable67

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 3, 2005
Messages
4,641
Reaction score
1,102
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
His chart on retail sales conflicts with one that someone was presenting on DP in the last few weeks. So who is the lier?
Probably no one.

The Kyle Bass video is from 2010. A day or so ago, I posted in another thread a chart of retail sales through Sep 2011, as of which date, retail sales as measured by the ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, were about 4 1/2% higher than the pre-recession peak. Note, however, that retail sales as measured by that report are in nominal dollars, i.e., not adjusted for inflation.

Another, more all-inclusive look at consumer expenditures, and in real terms, is real personal consumption expenditures (real PCE), available in the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. As of August (the most recent of these reports), real PCE had peaked at $9,421.2B in July as compared to a previous peak of $9,355.5B in Dec '07. Therefore, according to both measures, retail sales and all-inclusive PCE are now higher than pre-recession peaks.
 

iliveonramen

Pontificator
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 23, 2011
Messages
11,257
Reaction score
5,711
Location
On a Gravy Train with Biscuit Wheels
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
All good responses. All good points. We do have major problems looming and unfortunately it seems as if changes will not take place until we hit rock bottom. It's a depressing thought.
 

imagep

Villiage Idiot
DP Veteran
Joined
May 7, 2010
Messages
24,399
Reaction score
10,426
Location
Upstate SC
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
Why do the best Hedge Fund managers make more than a billion a year?
They earn it.
Bull****. They just transfer wealth from others. If you want to consider acquiring wealth the same as earning wealth, then maybe you are correct, but personally, to me, "earning wealth" means creating wealth, not simply getting a piece of someone elses wealth.

Do you REALLY think that a hedge fund manager creates a billion dollars worth of new wealth that wouldn't exist if they didn't perform their job? All they are really doing is skimming a percentage of wealth from investors who are have way to much faith in the hedge funds. Statistically the investors would actually do better if they randomly invested directly into the stock market. The reason for this is simple - the fees that hedge fund managers charge eats up any small statistical "above market" profits that hedge funds may make.

Now lets say that a fund manager is able to manipulate the market and actually does year after year predictably beat the market. Does that actually create any new wealth? Does making bets on a investment and then intentionally driving up or down the price of that investment as to benefit from that bet create any new wealth? Of course not. It just creates a situation where people who take the other end of the bet are loosers - and transfers wealth from the loosers to the fund investors. No new wealth created.

Say that I am able to convince you that I can communicate with the dead (although I can't) and you paid me a million dollars to convey a message to your dead loved one. Did I create any new wealth? heck no, all I did was to scam you out of a million dollars.

Fund managers are not creating wealth. They are simply getting paid for a valueless service. Claiming that they made wealth is no more legitimate than a bankrobber creates wealth when he robs a bank. Yes, he did something that made him wealthy, but it created no new wealth.

As a society we really need to re-evaluate what we call "earning" money. There's a difference between creating wealth and transfering wealth, and while most certainly creating wealth can be called "earning" it, and that is positive for society, but simply transfering wealth has little value to our society. It's a concept that tends to get lost in the wee minds of many conservatives.
 
Last edited:
Top Bottom