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Kasich on the clock

MorrisDay said:
I think they are the two best that are left so of course, I wish it would happen. I am hopeful the republicans will come to their senses and vote for a ticket than can WIN.
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i can't really agree. that would mean an uncontested Republican government, as the house and senate are probably going to remain Republican controlled. the duopoly is so gerrymandered that i think it's better if control is split between the two parties.
 
Crovax said:
It would only deliver the home state of the nominee, VP picks barely even move the needle
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your argument is that Rubio wouldn't take Florida as VP? i think that he almost certainly would.
 
OrphanSlug said:
He is probably trying for a VP nod, the question then becomes who will ask him?
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THis is what ive been saying.
Only two people have ever won the presidency without winning Ohio in the general election and that was Nixon and Kennedy and they were both running against Governors of Ohio.
If Kasich could deliver Ohio to republicans that makes him a shortlist VP candidate.
 
Crovax said:
With Jeb dropping out and Carson set to do so on Wednesday, that only leaves one dead weight. Kasich's campaign talks about holding on til mid March when he thinks he can get momentum. Will he really hang on that long finishing a distant 4th in pretty much every state in the SEC primary? He needs to back out now if he really wants the GOP to succeed.
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After Trump takes apart Rubio, Kasich is the lone survivor on the "establishment side"....
 
SocialD said:
THis is what ive been saying.
Only two people have ever won the presidency without winning Ohio in the general election and that was Nixon and Kennedy and they were both running against Governors of Ohio.
If Kasich could deliver Ohio to republicans that makes him a shortlist VP candidate.
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VPs don't deliver states, if it was super close it could make a difference but it's unlikely it would have any major impact.
 
upsideguy said:
After Trump takes apart Rubio, Kasich is the lone survivor on the "establishment side"....
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In what world does that happen Rubio might not win but he's certainly going to do a lot better than Kasich. Rubio is gaining support while Trump and Kasich have both under preformed.
 
Kasich has no reason to leave the race before his own state of Ohio votes.

Kashich will be the VP choice - if the GOP wants to win in November as he delivers Ohio and its electoral votes back into the GOP column.
 
Crovax said:
In what world does that happen Rubio might not win but he's certainly going to do a lot better than Kasich. Rubio is gaining support while Trump and Kasich have both under preformed.
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Well, in the world we live in, Rubio has won nothing and still remains well behind Donald Trump. Trump has been, is and will continue to be the Republicans worst nightmare. If he doesn't become Rubio's worst nightmare this week, I will be surprised. He needs to attack Rubio while he is just a political hatchling. As we saw in NH, Rubio is quite vulnerable.
 
upsideguy said:
Well, in the world we live in, Rubio has won nothing and still remains well behind Donald Trump. Trump has been, is and will continue to be the Republicans worst nightmare. If he doesn't become Rubio's worst nightmare this week, I will be surprised. He needs to attack Rubio while he is just a political hatchling. As we saw in NH, Rubio is quite vulnerable.
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and as we saw in Iowa Trump is vulnerable, bad debate performances have an effect. But come tomorrow Rubio is going to finish 20 points ahead of Kasich and his wait till Ohio strategy is going to look worse and worse.
 
haymarket said:
Kasich has no reason to leave the race before his own state of Ohio votes.
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Hes got plenty of reasons, he doesnt want the blame for helping Trump get the nomination and most of all he doesnt want to lose his home state which he will if he stays in it til Ohio.

Kashich will be the VP choice - if the GOP wants to win in November as he delivers Ohio and its electoral votes back into the GOP column.
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VP nominees simply dont deliver states
 
Crovax said:
Hes got plenty of reasons, he doesnt want the blame for helping Trump get the nomination and most of all he doesnt want to lose his home state which he will if he stays in it til Ohio.



VP nominees simply dont deliver states
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Normally - that is usually true. I suspect in a close election, somebody as popular as Kasich who could deliver the key state of Ohio would be worth that chance.
 
Crovax said:
VPs don't deliver states, if it was super close it could make a difference but it's unlikely it would have any major impact.
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Ohio has been considered a swing state for years. most often there being only 2-4% different in popular vote in the general election. its almost always close there.
 
SocialD said:
Ohio has been considered a swing state for years. most often there being only 2-4% different in popular vote in the general election. its almost always close there.
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The best case VP nominee can swing between 2-4%, Kasich isn't that not to mention if it takes a 4% swing to snag Ohio the GOP would still be losing Virginia
 
Crovax said:
The best case VP nominee can swing between 2-4%, Kasich isn't that not to mention if it takes a 4% swing to snag Ohio the GOP would still be losing Virginia
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perhaps, Ohio is worth more electoral votes than Virginia though 18 vs 13.
There is chatter that McCauliffe ( Virginias gov ) could be a possible VP candidate for Hillary. They are longtime friends so it would make sense.
however McCauliffe isn't nearly as popular with Virginians and Kasich is with Ohio residents. I guess we shall see.
 
SocialD said:
perhaps, Ohio is worth more electoral votes than Virginia though 18 vs 13.
There is chatter that McCauliffe ( Virginias gov ) could be a possible VP candidate for Hillary. They are longtime friends so it would make sense.
however McCauliffe isn't nearly as popular with Virginians and Kasich is with Ohio residents. I guess we shall see.
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Once again if you need a 4% swing to win VA then the GOP is going to lose Ohio. You need them both and if you have to a VP get a major change to win one you will lose the other. You need a nominee that can with Ohio, VA and Florida all on his own. The VP pick will be someone who will add balance to the ticket and is a good campaigner/surrogate
 
Winchester said:
He's the last best hope of the GOP succeeding.
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I would love Kasich to be the GOP nominee; at least I'd be able to sleep at night knowing that someone who actually could do the job on day one was running for it. And depending what happens over the next months, he's someone I could even vote for.
 
I saw this as part of 538's Nevada chat

harry: Can we talk about John Kasich for a second here?

clare.malone: Always. He’s in the South this week!

harry: He’s not in Nevada.

clare.malone: Nope.

harry: How is he running a national campaign?

clare.malone: He’s in Mississippi and Georgia, I believe.

harry: He didn’t run in Iowa. He’s not running in Nevada. He sorta campaigned in South Carolina.

clare.malone: I think he’s running for VP. Which to me, means you need to stay in for a while.
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What’s Going To Happen In Nevada Tonight? | FiveThirtyEight

I wonder why they and others seem to think a candidte has to run for a long time into the primaries to be the VP pick.

Paul Ryan didnt run in 2012
Biden dropped out after Iowa in 2008
Palin didnt run in 2008
Edwards withdrew on March 2nd in 2004
Cheney didnt run in 2000
Liberman didnt run in 2000
Kemp didnt run in 1996
Gore didnt run in 1992
Bentsen didnt run in 1988
Qualye didnt run in 1988

So why exactly must Kasich run til mid march or later if he wants the VP nomination?
 
Crovax said:
I saw this as part of 538's Nevada chat



What’s Going To Happen In Nevada Tonight? | FiveThirtyEight

I wonder why they and others seem to think a candidte has to run for a long time into the primaries to be the VP pick.

Paul Ryan didnt run in 2012
Biden dropped out after Iowa in 2008
Palin didnt run in 2008
Edwards withdrew on March 2nd in 2004
Cheney didnt run in 2000
Liberman didnt run in 2000
Kemp didnt run in 1996
Gore didnt run in 1992
Bentsen didnt run in 1988
Qualye didnt run in 1988

So why exactly must Kasich run til mid march or later if he wants the VP nomination?
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... Rubio might be a good VP candidate...
 
Crovax said:
I don't think he would tie himself to either Trump or Cruz who look to be sure losers in the general
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You are probably right. I was thinking he could be Kasich' #2. Does he have to leave the Senate, or does he get to run for re-election?
 
upsideguy said:
You are probably right. I was thinking he could be Kasich' #2. Does he have to leave the Senate, or does he get to run for re-election?
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Kasich isn't going to get the nomination, not even close.

As far as Rubio, I don't know the law in Florida but he has already said he is not seeking re-election
 
Crovax said:
Kasich isn't going to get the nomination, not even close.

As far as Rubio, I don't know the law in Florida but he has already said he is not seeking re-election
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You are right again, neither of them are likely to get the nomination, unless the convention is brokered.... then I like Kasich's chances.
 
At least Kasich is still running for number one. Rubio and Cruz are competing for second place.
 
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