It's 2028: AOC vs. Trump / MAGA Successor

[NatMorton]

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." --TJ

"... until a breakpoint point is reached." -- NM

 

[aociswundumho]

"... until a breakpoint point is reached." -- NM

The USSR lasted 70 years.

 

[Dans La Lune]

Here are the Cook PVI scores for the congressional districts of current Squad members and DSA members:
NY-14 (AOC): D+19
MN-5 (Omar): D+32
MA-7 (Pressley): D+34
MI-12 (Tlaib): D+21
TX-35 (Casar): D+19

What is your political hypothesis for why socialists only seem to win elections in districts that look like this, if they represent the mainstream of the American electorate?

Progressive Policies Popular​

Progressive policies have demonstrated significant popularity across various demographics in the United States. For instance, creating generic versions of life-saving drugs has a net support of 30% among eligible voters, with 51% in favor and 21% opposed. A public option for internet access shows even stronger support, with a net 39% (56% support, 16% oppose). Similarly, a job guarantee policy has garnered 55% support, with only 23% opposed, while ending cash bail has a net positive support of 21 points (45% in favor, 24% opposed).1

These policies are not only popular among urban populations but also across suburban and rural voters, with some policies being more favored in rural areas. For example, the generic pharmaceuticals proposal is supported by 47% of Trump voters, while a public internet option has support from 43% of Trump voters.1

A separate survey by CNBC in 2019 found that 57% of the public supports tuition-free state and public colleges paid for with federal dollars, with significant backing from Democrats (80%) and Independents (61%). Paid maternity leave, child care, and raising the minimum wage also have majority support in Republican congressional districts.5

Public Citizen highlights that 70% of Americans support Medicare for All, and an overwhelming 90% of all Americans want to empower Medicare to negotiate drug prices, including 91% of Republican voters.6

Despite the popularity of many progressive policies, some proposals like universal basic income face challenges, with only 28% of the public backing the idea. However, this support is more pronounced among younger voters, with individuals under 45 showing net positive support for such policies.1

Overall, progressive policies resonate with a broad spectrum of the American electorate, cutting across party lines, age groups, and geographic regions, indicating a shift in public opinion towards more progressive stances on key issues.

Polling The Left Agenda

How popular are the ideas on the left?

www.dataforprogress.org

Research Guides: Public Policy: Statistics

Provides a starting point for research in public policy.

guides.lib.umich.edu

Majority of Americans support progressive policies such as higher minimum wage, free college

From government-mandated paid maternity leave to tuition free college, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey reveals a surprising American appetite for some very progressive policies.

www.cnbc.com

Progressive Policies Are Popular Policies - Public Citizen

At Public Citizen, we pride ourselves on doing what we think is right, not what others say is “reasonable.” We…

www.citizen.org

If you can't win on popular policies, you're a loser. LOSER. Are you a loser, @Gatsby? Is that what you support?

 

[NatMorton]

The USSR lasted 70 years.

Historically speaking, that's the blink of an eye. British colonial rule here in what is now the United States lasted more than twice that long, and it was far less oppressive.

 

[aociswundumho]

Historically speaking, that's the blink of an eye.

True, but it's still depressing.

British colonial rule here in what is now the United States lasted more than twice that long, and it was far less oppressive.

 

[Dans La Lune]

West Virginia Bernie Sanders Popularity​

Bernie Sanders found significant popularity in West Virginia during the 2016 Democratic primary, a state that has trended increasingly Republican in recent years. Despite the state's shift toward Republican candidates in general elections, Sanders won every county in the 2016 West Virginia Democratic primary, largely due to his strong support among coal industry workers. Fifty-five percent of West Virginia's Democratic voters with coal workers in their households voted for Sanders, compared to only 29% for Hillary Clinton. His victory was attributed to a rejection of the Obama administration's policies on coal, which Clinton had echoed with her comment about putting coal companies out of business.5

Although Sanders won the primary, the Democratic convention in Philadelphia saw the West Virginia delegation ultimately pledge support to Hillary Clinton. This outcome was influenced by superdelegates, with Senator Joe Manchin reportedly playing a key role in securing Clinton's victory within the state delegation.1

Despite Sanders’ primary success, West Virginia remains a deeply Republican-leaning state in broader elections. In the 2016 general election, Donald Trump won the state with 69% of the vote, carrying all 55 counties—an outcome that would have been unthinkable a few decades prior.4 Political analysts attribute this shift to several factors, including the decline of the coal industry, changing party demographics, and the Democratic Party’s embrace of environmental policies that many West Virginians view as hostile to their economic interests.6

Nonetheless, progressive candidates like Sanders have shown potential appeal in the state. A 2017 poll indicated that more West Virginians would support Sanders over Trump in a hypothetical 2020 matchup, and he was viewed at least as favorably as both Trump and Senator Joe Manchin.

Bernie Sanders takes West Virginia as Donald Trump rolls on

Sanders’ victory does little to narrow Clinton’s large delegate lead, while presumptive Republican nominee claims wins in West Virginia and Nebraska

www.theguardian.com

West Virginia: How the Bluest State Became the Reddest

The American political landscape has changed a lot over the past 25 years but there is no more dramatic shift that the one that has

www.nbcnews.com

Build Back Better West Virginia​

The Build Back Better Act garnered significant support in West Virginia, with surveys indicating that 80% of West Virginians wanted the Biden $3.5 trillion budget proposal, which included the Build Back Better plan, to be passed.2 Additionally, a survey by WorkMoney found that 80% of more than 800 people surveyed in West Virginia believed Senator Joe Manchin should vote to pass the bill.2

However, Senator Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia, expressed concerns about the Act, stating that he could not explain the sweeping legislation to his constituents and therefore could not support it.7 Despite this, there has been ongoing advocacy from West Virginians urging Manchin to reconsider, emphasizing the potential benefits the Build Back Better Act could bring to the state, such as reducing everyday costs, increasing access to essential services, and creating job opportunities.6

The Act was projected to bring significant economic benefits to West Virginia, including the creation of 32,400–73,500 additional direct jobs in the clean energy sector and an increase in low- and no-carbon energy generation from 6% to 39–73%.3 These figures highlight the potential impact of the Build Back Better Act on West Virginia's economy and workforce.

To Dems:

 

[aociswundumho]

Won't be Anybody from NYC.

Trump is from NYC, and he won twice.

 

[Dans La Lune]

AOC is way too polarising to make much sense for the Dems.

She wins over some Trump voters, something previous thought impossible. Anyone Dems run will be polarizing. That's the nature of politics. Hillary Clinton (a moderate right-wing centrist) was polarizing. Biden was polarizing. Kamala Harris was polarizing.

Who should they nominate? Joe Manchin?

 

[aociswundumho]

Won 2028 be the year of the transman?

I'd vote for Deirdre McCloskey, who is a trans woman. But she's too old now.

 

[OrphanSlug]

I doubt it will be AOC, that said I may have no choice but to vote for her entirely as a vote against Trump's MAGA successor.

I cannot in good conscience abide by what MAGA stands for, will not support them as is, and it based on the realization that MAGAs have no real interest in doing something great for America.

 

[Gatsby]

If you can't win on popular policies, you're a loser. LOSER. Are you a loser, @Gatsby? Is that what you support?

I'll ask again. What is your explanation for the fact that the five congressional members of the Squad and/or DSA all come from districts that are overwhelmingly more Democratic than the nation as a whole? If they actually represent the mainstream of America, this would be a very odd pattern.

 

[Risky Thicket]

It will not be Trump. Not a chance. Daily he makes his return impossible. Trump’s cognitive decline is progressive and cannot be reversed. He will not last. As a result, and we are seeing it now, MAGA will be forever tainted and less popular. Some things cannot be unfecked.

Vance will have to change his name yet again in an attempt to remove the Trump stench. It won’t work.

The MAGA GOP will desperately need an actual adult to run but damage done there will be fewer MAGAs and most remaining MAGAs will not support an adult candidate.

 

[Gatsby]

To Dems:

Notably, West Virginia did not elect Bernie Sanders to any office. He won 51% of the vote there (124K votes) in a Democratic primary held 9 years ago.

Vermont, the state which Bernie Sanders actually represents in the Senate, has a Cook PVI score of D+17, the most Democratic of any state in the country.

 

[Dans La Lune]

Pick your words, smart or intelligent, not the same.

Smart is a board term that combines the ability to absorb information (knowledge) and the ability to navigate knowledge based on lived experience (wisdom). Trump doesn't have much knowledge or wisdom (that shit's for the woke-ies), he just leverages the hateful public sentiment and ignorance. Fascists are rarely intelligent, they just follow a playbook that works. It's paint-by-numbers politics. There's never any solutions presented in his politics, just broad themes designed to incite sentiment towards a corrupt agenda under the guise of helping people. He combines that with his charisma and ability to entertain. Successful fascists only emerge when the conditions are right in society, otherwise the do not (and cannot) gain traction.

AOC has a double major in International Relations and Economics. She actually understands policy. And she can relate to the average person, as that's her life story pre-politics.

 

[Dans La Lune]

Notably, West Virginia did not elect Bernie Sanders to any office. He won 51% of the vote there (124K votes) in a Democratic primary held 9 years ago.

You mean Democratic insiders rigged the contest against Bernie, despite him winning. Yes, I remember. How'd that work out?

 

[NatMorton]

True, but it's still depressing.

I agree, and that's why folks like you and I are sensitive to even minor encroachments on personal liberty. Our friends on the left tend not to see them because, lacking perspective, they don't appreciate how hard it is to win rights back once they're lost.

 

[Gatsby]

You mean Democratic insiders rigged the contest against Bernie, despite him winning. Yes, I remember.

Yes, everything is a conspiracy against you.

How'd that work out?

West Virginia actually did have the opportunity to elect a Bernie Bro to the Senate. I'll let the results speak for themselves.



But hey, at least she got more votes in WV than Bernie Sanders did.

 

[Gatsby]

She wins over some Trump voters, something previous thought impossible.

Ehh, looks like AOC won her district with 132,714 votes and Kamala Harris won her district with 131,879 votes. That's...hardly an overwhelming show of her ability to win Trump voters in an extremely left-wing district. At least she didn't underperform.

Anyone Dems run will be polarizing. That's the nature of politics.

Maybe so, but some are definitely more electable than others.

Hillary Clinton (a moderate right-wing centrist) was polarizing. Biden was polarizing. Kamala Harris was polarizing.

Yup, all three were quite weak nominees, running against a Republican who was also a weak nominee. And the fact that they were polarizing should probably indicate that your characterization of them as "moderate right-wing centrists" is not how the American electorate perceived them. For example, here was a Pew poll from 2016:


A majority of voters saw Hillary Clinton as left-of-center, and practically no one viewed her as a right-winger.

Who should they nominate? Joe Manchin?

I'd settle for someone running on the Obama 2012 platform.

 

[Dans La Lune]

Ehh, looks like AOC won her district with 132,714 votes and Kamala Harris won her district with 131,879 votes. That's...hardly an overwhelming show of her ability to win Trump voters in an extremely left-wing district. At least she didn't underperform.

‘A change from the status quo’: the voters who backed Trump and AOC

Americans who elected a leftist Democrat and a Republican president say the pair share an anti-establishment spirit

www.theguardian.com

Maybe so, but some are definitely more electable than others.

Anyone you'd choose would be in the mold of Hillary Clinton.

A majority of voters saw Hillary Clinton as left-of-center, and practically no one viewed her as a right-winger.

She was seen as being to the right of Obama.

I'd settle for someone running on the Obama 2012 platform.

You'd settle for Manchin. Maybe YOU should be the one to hold your nose and vote for the lesser of two evils.

 

[Dans La Lune]

Yes, everything is a conspiracy against you.

DNC Rigged West Virginia​

The 2016 Democratic Primary in West Virginia became a focal point for claims that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) rigged the process against Bernie Sanders. Sanders won the state in a landslide during the primary, yet all of the state's superdelegates ultimately supported Hillary Clinton, which fueled accusations of systemic bias and manipulation by the DNC.2

Several factors contributed to these claims. One notable issue was the scheduling of debates and media exposure. Critics argued that the DNC deliberately scheduled debates at times that limited Sanders' visibility, such as during major NFL games, which could have reduced his exposure to potential voters.3 Additionally, there were fewer debates overall, which gave Sanders less opportunity to challenge Clinton directly and gain traction among undecided voters.

The controversy was further exacerbated by the 2016 DNC email leak, which revealed internal communications suggesting that some DNC officials favored Clinton over Sanders. For instance, there were discussions about potentially undermining Sanders by highlighting his religious beliefs, specifically suggesting that the media should ask him if he was an atheist, which could have negatively impacted his appeal in more religiously conservative states like West Virginia.5 These revelations led to significant internal and external criticism, and ultimately, DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned amid the fallout.5

Moreover, there were allegations that the DNC had made secret agreements with the Clinton campaign regarding financial arrangements and strategic decisions, which some interpreted as evidence of a broader effort to ensure Clinton's nomination.5 Sanders' campaign manager at the time, Jeff Weaver, called for greater accountability within the DNC, criticizing Wasserman Schultz for being a divisive figure within the party.5

Despite these controversies, it is important to note that Sanders' own campaign manager had previously helped design the superdelegate system, which means that the structure of the system was well understood by his team.2 Nonetheless, the combination of the DNC's internal biases, the scheduling decisions, and the handling of superdelegates contributed to a perception among many Sanders supporters that the process was unfair and rigged against him.2

These tensions came to a head during the Democratic National Convention, where Sanders delegates walked off the convention floor in protest, citing a "rigged system" as the reason for their dissatisfaction.4 Some of these supporters even indicated they would vote for third-party candidates rather than support Clinton in the general election.4

While the DNC later issued a formal apology to Sanders and his supporters, acknowledging that the leaked emails did not reflect the organization's commitment to neutrality, the damage to the party's unity and credibility had already been done.5 The events in West Virginia, along with the broader context of the 2016 primary season, continue to be cited by some as examples of systemic issues within the Democratic Party's nomination process.

Yes, the DNC did conspire against Bernie

It turns out Bernie Sanders supporters were not paranoid. The Hillary Clinton machine, which dominates the Democratic National Committee, never had any intention of allowing a fair primary contest. The race was fixed. We already knew this but…

capitalresearch.org

 

[Dans La Lune]

Wow.

 

[Gatsby]

‘A change from the status quo’: the voters who backed Trump and AOC

Americans who elected a leftist Democrat and a Republican president say the pair share an anti-establishment spirit

www.theguardian.com

Well you do the math. AOC won her district with 132,714 votes and Kamala Harris won her district with 131,879 votes. So these voters either only number in the hundreds, or else AOC lost nearly as many Harris voters as she gained in Trump voters.

Anyone you'd choose would be in the mold of Hillary Clinton.

Nah. Hillary Clinton was very much a wokescold. Or at least the version of Hillary Clinton who ran for president was.

She was seen as being to the right of Obama.

I can't find the same Pew poll for Obama (I'm not sure how long they've been asking that question), but the voters clearly didn't view Hillary Clinton as a moderate, much less as a conservative.

You'd settle for Manchin.

On the contrary, I'd be very happy with someone in that mold. I wouldn't be settling at all. Manchin's too old though. Ideally I'd go with an under-70, moderate, affable governor of a red or purple state with a good electoral track record.

Maybe YOU should be the one to hold your nose and vote for the lesser of two evils.

So far I've done that for most elections in my lifetime, and I don't expect future elections will be any different.

 

[Gatsby]

DNC Rigged West Virginia​

The 2016 Democratic Primary in West Virginia became a focal point for claims that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) rigged the process against Bernie Sanders. Sanders won the state in a landslide during the primary, yet all of the state's superdelegates ultimately supported Hillary Clinton, which fueled accusations of systemic bias and manipulation by the DNC.2

Oh, then you're talking about something totally unrelated to Bernie Sanders's level of actual support in West Virginia. Which is how this subject came up.

I'm pointing out that Bernie Sanders only got 51% of the vote in the West Virginia primary, which was about 124K people. This was 1) not that impressive as a percentage, 2) not that impressive as an absolute number of voters, and 3) a Democratic primary and not a general election. And then the Bernie Bro who ran statewide in the Senate general election there improved on Bernie Sanders's total, getting 210K votes, but still got clobbered by a humiliating 70-27 margin. Where is the evidence that there is an appetite for socialism in West Virginia or any other red state? It looks like there are maybe 210K voters in West Virginia who either want the socialist agenda or are willing to vote for it under some circumstances, which isn't nearly enough to win an election there.

 

[Dans La Lune]

Well you do the math. AOC won her district with 132,714 votes and Kamala Harris won her district with 131,879 votes. So these voters either only number in the hundreds, or else AOC lost nearly as many Harris voters as she gained in Trump voters.

'In a broader context, AOC has a net positive image according to a survey by AtlasIntel, ranking third in political popularity, just behind former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, with a positivity rating of 46%.7 She is also viewed positively by more Americans than President Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, according to a Newsweek report.5 Notably, her favorability has surged among New York Republicans, surpassing both Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.'

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/21/aoc-bernie-sanders-progressives-democrats

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sees popularity With New York Republicans surge

AOC tops favorability among New Yorkers, beating both President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

www.newsweek.com

Nah. Hillary Clinton was very much a wokescold. Or at least the version of Hillary Clinton who ran for president was.

Hillary Clinton is your model of Democrat.

I can't find the same Pew poll for Obama (I'm not sure how long they've been asking that question), but the voters clearly didn't view Hillary Clinton as a moderate, much less as a conservative.

Obama beat Hillary Clinton largely because she supported the Iraq War and was aligned with warhawk interests.

On the contrary, I'd be very happy with someone in that mold. I wouldn't be settling at all. Manchin's too old though. Ideally I'd go with a moderate, affable governor of a red or purple state with a good electoral track record.

Yes, I know, you're a conservative.

So far I've done that for most elections in my lifetime, and I don't expect future elections will be any different.

I think if AOC was the nominee you'd vote for the Republicans.

 

[antiquity]

Start your own thread scenario. These are the choices.

Yes and AOC is a lousy choice. The ex-bar tender who like to have liberal cry on shoulder is not fit to lead.