Is the White House trying to engineer a recession? This Wall Street pro explains the vision.

[jaypatriot]

I think the legacy will last long after Trump leaves office. From the POV of Europe and Canada, Trump decided to do a trade war with the US' traditional allies for no good reason, the GOP let him do it and the Dems were too weak to stop him. I think the thought in other Western countries is we relied too much on the US economically and the US is not as reliable as we thought. I think any short term gains the US gets from all this will be offset by the broken trust that will lead Western countries to better diversify their economies to rely less on the US.

Keep in mind, countries do what is best for its own people and not for another country.
Even rescuing Europe twice in the 20th century happened because America wanted a stable Europe to defend against the Huns and Russia.
Now here we are again in the 21st century. Germany, as well as France and the U.K. need to step up and defend against a hungry Russian Bear.
Do they have trouble seeing that?

 

[Captain Adverse]

All of you are missing what Trump is actually doing. He is not deliberately creating a Recession. What he is doing is filling the Treasury with money that was allocated for Ukraine, Dept. of Ed, USAID, Global Warming to name a few. Then, add to those funds, money taken in with tariffs. When all that maximizes, he will declare corporate tax break time and go laughing all the way to the bank with his share of tax break. For me, it's so obvious. There's nothing illegal here, it's just unethical which Donald's middle name.

All I can say in response to that is this:

 

[Gimmesometruth]

All I can say

You say nothing, as per usual.

Here is what the Atlanta FED says:

GDPNow Bouncing near Zero | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

 

[Revelation]

The very wealthy generally do very well in recession... they buy up distressed properties and distressed businesses

yes. in a Depression too; the rich got out before the Crash and then bought up the market very cheaply.

if you read the notes on what happened, the Crash was engineered according to fed chief Bernanke. enjoy the market and Economy fall people, much more to come from Dark Maga.

here you go: https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=Dark+Maga+is+technocracy&ia=web

 

[Revelation]

Or the other obvious option, which is that we could pursue policies that would not allow the wealthy to rig the economy in that way.

makes me wonder who this 'we' is he is referring too ?????????

if it is the sheep, then not gonna happen.

so the Oligarchs are going to cut their funding ??????

wow people, and this is gonna happen when ?

some people think that 'we the people run the usa' and of course we the people are the dreamers.

if you wanna know, start with Dark Maga and dream big: https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=Dark+Maga+is+technocracy&ia=web

they have a very Big Beautiful Plan for themselves that doesn't include you at all; it is Designed to cut you out. seems to always work that way huh?


blessings all.

This kind of response isn't well thought-out on your part. You're basically saying something like, "look, this is just the reality. You can either deal with it, or feel sad about it." But that logic can be extended--if it's all just down to force and reality and no other factor enters into the discussion (i.e. factors like justice or morality) than why shouldn't we all just start killing each other and taking what we want? I can think of any number of people who would do quite well in a fight against Elon Musk, for example--perhaps one of them should just twist his head clean off his neck and take his wealth; then if anyone expresses any horror or reservation at what has happened, we can just tell them to go have a nice cry about it and then just face up to reality.

there are 6000 other Oligarchs behind muck, so yur plan not gonna work.

and i can Guarantee that, if you know Anything concerning Dark Maga; but you don't and never will.


bye.

.

 

[CLAX1911]

"Traders are starting to price in the possibility that the U.S. economy might fall into a recession — and one Wall Street veteran says that might actually be the Trump administration’s plan.

Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura dubbed Wall Street’s most wired analyst by the Financial Times for his manic missives focused on the options market, laid out the argument in a note to clients.

He said President Donald Trump and his administration need an engineered recession to cause a growth slowdown and disinflation that will translate into Fed rate cuts and a meaningfully weaker U.S. dollar for the next phase of his economic agenda.

In another note to clients on Wednesday morning, McElligott cited remarks made by Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent on a focus on small business and consumers that will require a “rebalance,” as Trump in front of Congress on Tuesday night spoke of being “okay” with a little disturbance from tariffs.

The idea is that Fed rate cuts and supply-side stimulus from tax cuts and deregulation will then be able to build up the economy without the need for government spending."

Link

This is a good, simple explanation of what Trump is trying to do. It's a pretty tall order and I'm not sure that what works on paper will happen in the real world. And indeed, there are many critics of this idea. These are weeds I'm not eager to wade into.

I don't think the average person really gives a crap about the stock market.

 

[Revelation]

I don't think the average person really gives a crap about the stock market.

ditto in 1929; now it is this Generation's turn.

from my Perspective, this is the terminal generation and we have no clue.

most have no clue what is going on, just like 1929. this time the Stakes are higher: few listen.


however eventually they WILL listen; listen to those who survive: why didn't some one warn us ?

Clax, if we did warn you, (and we have) would anyone bother to listen?

anyone?

history says Absolutely not. we will be Forced to accept our fate.


blessings all, the clock ticking in the corner has a few more seconds left. but just a few.


.

 

[ModernDiogenes]

"Traders are starting to price in the possibility that the U.S. economy might fall into a recession — and one Wall Street veteran says that might actually be the Trump administration’s plan.

Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura dubbed Wall Street’s most wired analyst by the Financial Times for his manic missives focused on the options market, laid out the argument in a note to clients.

He said President Donald Trump and his administration need an engineered recession to cause a growth slowdown and disinflation that will translate into Fed rate cuts and a meaningfully weaker U.S. dollar for the next phase of his economic agenda.

In another note to clients on Wednesday morning, McElligott cited remarks made by Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent on a focus on small business and consumers that will require a “rebalance,” as Trump in front of Congress on Tuesday night spoke of being “okay” with a little disturbance from tariffs.

The idea is that Fed rate cuts and supply-side stimulus from tax cuts and deregulation will then be able to build up the economy without the need for government spending."

Link

This is a good, simple explanation of what Trump is trying to do. It's a pretty tall order and I'm not sure that what works on paper will happen in the real world. And indeed, there are many critics of this idea. These are weeds I'm not eager to wade into.

Yeah, it’s just great that working and middle class folks can suffer the impact to their savings (what few of them have savings), their 401K’s, deal with economic down turn and inflation all while the dollar gets threatened as the international currency of business, so that the wealthy get a reset to increase corporate profit without government spending. Both directly from what government is giving them and indirectly from what government is no longer spending in social programs.

Yeah, that is what that means. It’s going to hit the working and middle classes multiple ways.

 

[ModernDiogenes]

I dare say, not by firing 17 Inspectors General. That's the opposite of correction.

It is precisely what you want to do if profit from corruption is part of your game planning.

 

[Revelation]

Yeah, it’s just great that working and middle class folks can suffer the impact to their savings (what few of them have savings), their 401K’s, deal with economic down turn and inflation all while the dollar gets threatened as the international currency of business, so that the wealthy get a reset to increase corporate profit without government spending. Both directly from what government is giving them and indirectly from what government is no longer spending in social programs.

Yeah, that is what that means. It’s going to hit the working and middle classes multiple ways.

more than just 'hit them'.......

more like: eliminate them.


most have Zero scope about what is coming: and it is all Engineered to be this way.


bye.

.

 

[ModernDiogenes]

ditto in 1929; now it is this Generation's turn.

from my Perspective, this is the terminal generation and we have no clue.

most have no clue what is going on, just like 1929. this time the Stakes are higher: few listen.


however eventually they WILL listen; listen to those who survive: why didn't some one warn us ?

Clax, if we did warn you, (and we have) would anyone bother to listen?

anyone?

history says Absolutely not. we will be Forced to accept our fate.


blessings all, the clock ticking in the corner has a few more seconds left. but just a few.


.

We are recreating post Civil War Industrial Revolution trend lines in political, social and economics leading to the Crash of 1929 and The Great Depression (that lead into WW2) for 40 years now.

The thing of it is that it is so very preventable. Break the trends and you change the time line. The results change as well. However, continue to repeat them and you end up in the same place we did back then.

Stupid repeated antics winning repeated stupid prizes.

It’s up to us.

 

[CLAX1911]

ditto in 1929; now it is this Generation's turn.

from my Perspective, this is the terminal generation and we have no clue.

I'm not sure it means a whole lot anymore. Back in the 20s right before the depression most companies in the US were Us companies. American cars are mostly produced overseas.

most have no clue what is going on, just like 1929. this time the Stakes are higher: few listen.

I don't think the stakes are as high.

however eventually they WILL listen; listen to those who survive: why didn't some one warn us ?

Clax, if we did warn you, (and we have) would anyone bother to listen?

anyone?

history says Absolutely not. we will be Forced to accept our fate.


blessings all, the clock ticking in the corner has a few more seconds left. but just a few.


.

I think if we have an economic disaster it will be because of the devaluing of the dollar. The water is already steaming in that particular pot.

 

[Grand Mal]

Keep in mind, countries do what is best for its own people and not for another country.
Even rescuing Europe twice in the 20th century happened because America wanted a stable Europe to defend against the Huns and Russia.

Seriously?
Your American education is showing. The American contribution to WW1 was what, 9 months? Spent making the same mistakes everyone else made 4 years earlier. And the Soviet Union won WW2 in Europe. There's no sane, reasonable way to say otherwise.
But your education was designed to produce a proud, loyal citizen, not an informed critical thinkers.

Now here we are again in the 21st century. Germany, as well as France and the U.K. need to step up and defend against a hungry Russian Bear.
Do they have trouble seeing that?

America needs to sit down and shut up. Your government has removed your country from relevance in these matters.

 

[jaypatriot]

Seriously?
Your American education is showing. The American contribution to WW1 was what, 9 months? Spent making the same mistakes everyone else made 4 years earlier. And the Soviet Union won WW2 in Europe. There's no sane, reasonable way to say otherwise.
But your education was designed to produce a proud, loyal citizen, not an informed critical thinkers.

America needs to sit down and shut up. Your government has removed your country from relevance in these matters.

As long as other NATO nations are putting up more defense funds to counter Russia, then that is what America needs so it can tend to adversaries like Iran and China.

The Allies won in WW I just after America entered the war.
The Russians helped to win WW II by contributing 19 million Russian soldiers to various cemeteries all around Eastern Europe and Russia. And they killed millions of Germans. Then with America's industrial might, supporting both England and Russia, the Allies defeated Germany.
That's the correct version of America's role in WW II.
You simply went to the wrong high school.

 

[j brown's body]

As long as other NATO nations are putting up more defense funds to counter Russia, then that is what America needs so it can tend to adversaries like Iran and China.

The Allies won in WW I just after America entered the war.
The Russians helped to win WW II by contributing 19 million Russian soldiers to various cemeteries all around Eastern Europe and Russia. And they killed millions of Germans. Then with America's industrial might, supporting both England and Russia, the Allies defeated Germany.
That's the correct version of America's role in WW II.
You simply went to the wrong high school.

Europe is paying lip service to NATO because Trump is so unreliable. They're preparing for it to crumble.

Hopefully will still get along with them well enough as we face China. Allies are an important tool in this conflict with China. It'd be a shame to lose them.

 

[Grand Mal]

As long as other NATO nations are putting up more defense funds to counter Russia, then that is what America needs so it can tend to adversaries like Iran and China.

The Allies won in WW I just after America entered the war.

America entered WW1 as the allies were about to win.

The Russians helped to win WW II by contributing 19 million Russian soldiers to various cemeteries all around Eastern Europe and Russia. And they killed millions of Germans.

80% of German casualties in WW2 were on the Eastern Front. The main thing the Normandy Invasion accomplished was it stopped the Soviet Union from over-running western Europe and punishing Franco in Spain.

Then with America's industrial might, supporting both England and Russia, the Allies defeated Germany.
That's the correct version of America's role in WW II.
You simply went to the wrong high school.

Like I said, you were taught a version of history designed to produce proud, loyal citizens, not informed critical thinkers.

 

[LouC]

I don't think the average person really gives a crap about the stock market.

This ^^^

 

[Cassandra]

This ^^^

Well, 62% of Americans have some stocks through retirement accounts. If the average does not care, they should. There is no aspect of the economy which is isolated from every other part of the economy. If the stock market crashes, the economy in general will crash. The market is currently over valued because most people are passive investors and because the big players think that the Fed will step in if there is a major shock to the system. But Trump and the Repubs sure know how to wreck an economy in a short period of time. Why do you think Gold prices have shot up?

There is record high personal debt, growing number of people behind on mortgage payments, a ballooning deficit, and signs that its becoming harder to sell the nation's debt, beside the weaker dollar (which may be intentional). I am guessing the next Fed will have to resort to QE . I anticipate stagflation

 

[CLAX1911]

Well, 62% of Americans have some stocks through retirement accounts. If the average does not care, they should.

Well for these type of investors ups and downs don't really matter. If you stay invested for a long period of time your investment will pay off ups and downs not really contributing.

There is no aspect of the economy which is isolated from every other part of the economy. If the stock market crashes, the economy in general will crash.

The stock markets crashed three times in my lifetime and twice while I was invested and I didn't lose any money. My investments are doing pretty good actually. It's when the crash lines up with some other sort of disaster like in the Great depression the stock market crashed along with severe drought.

The market is currently over valued because most people are passive investors and because the big players think that the Fed will step in if there is a major shock to the system. But Trump and the Repubs sure know how to wreck an economy in a short period of time. Why do you think Gold prices have shot up?

Short-term fluctuations don't really matter to a long-term investor. Again my investments survived to crashes and are still growing

There is record high personal debt, growing number of people behind on mortgage payments, a ballooning deficit, and signs that its becoming harder to sell the nation's debt, beside the weaker dollar (which may be intentional).

Yeah and there was a stock market crash in 2008 because it was subprime lending for houses. This is actually a problem created by Bill Clinton. Rewarding and backing thanks loaning people money for mortgages they had no possible way of affording.

Meddling tends to cause problems.

I am guessing the next Fed will have to resort to QE . I anticipate stagflation

To the average investor I don't think technician will make a big difference. The way to win at the stock market is play the long game.

 

[Cassandra]

Well for these type of investors ups and downs don't really matter. If you stay invested for a long period of time your investment will pay off ups and downs not really contributing.

Yeh, well I hope it will work out for the young. As it happens we are an aging population, heavily weighted on retirees depending on their stock portfolio.

The stock markets crashed three times in my lifetime and twice while I was invested and I didn't lose any money. My investments are doing pretty good actually. It's when the crash lines up with some other sort of disaster like in the Great depression the stock market crashed along with severe drought.

Well, if you are at or near retirement you have lived through America's golden age. The U.S. is now in decline.

Short-term fluctuations don't really matter to a long-term investor. Again my investments survived to crashes and are still growing

Yeah and there was a stock market crash in 2008 because it was subprime lending for houses. This is actually a problem created by Bill Clinton. Rewarding and backing thanks loaning people money for mortgages they had no possible way of affording.

Nonsense. Typical though. Don't blame the private sector when you can blame government, eh?

" Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan did initially express the view that financial institutions, particularly banks, would be
better equipped to regulate themselves, driven by their own self-interest to protect shareholders and their equity.

However, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, Greenspan publicly acknowledged that this belief proved to be a mistake. He stated that he was in a "state of shocked disbelief" about the breakdown in the ability of banks to self-regulate during the crisis. He found a "flaw in the model" that he had relied on for a long time. This self-regulation did not sufficiently protect their own shareholders and the financial system as a whole"

Meddling tends to cause problems.

To the average investor I don't think technician will make a big difference. The way to win at the stock market is play the long game.

Recession is coming, but the long term decline is more distressing. Are Trump and his friends hoping for it? beats me. Plainly, tariffs are a tax on the average consumer. The removal of immigrants further reduces consumer demand. The housing market is weak. Young people are struggling w student loan repayments. The upper income folks who have been propping up the economy for some time, are beginning to show signs of reduced spending. Unemployment is higher than reported. Trumps hostility to science, innovation, education and foreign born young people who wish to study in the US. will lead to a long term American brain drain. It breaks my heart to watch this destruction of a once vibrant nation

 

[mrjurrs]

"Traders are starting to price in the possibility that the U.S. economy might fall into a recession — and one Wall Street veteran says that might actually be the Trump administration’s plan.

Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura dubbed Wall Street’s most wired analyst by the Financial Times for his manic missives focused on the options market, laid out the argument in a note to clients.

He said President Donald Trump and his administration need an engineered recession to cause a growth slowdown and disinflation that will translate into Fed rate cuts and a meaningfully weaker U.S. dollar for the next phase of his economic agenda.

In another note to clients on Wednesday morning, McElligott cited remarks made by Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent on a focus on small business and consumers that will require a “rebalance,” as Trump in front of Congress on Tuesday night spoke of being “okay” with a little disturbance from tariffs.

The idea is that Fed rate cuts and supply-side stimulus from tax cuts and deregulation will then be able to build up the economy without the need for government spending."

Link

This is a good, simple explanation of what Trump is trying to do. It's a pretty tall order and I'm not sure that what works on paper will happen in the real world. And indeed, there are many critics of this idea. These are weeds I'm not eager to wade into.

Everything he does is done to benefit Putin.

 

[Mika-El]

I think trying to suggest at this time the current regime deliberately does anything let alone has the intelligence to intend to do anything or carry out anything is unlikely.

The entire administration is in panic mode going minute to minute in an absolute leadership vacuum. Anything resulting comes out of default from chaos and last second unintentional decisions based on covering up a mistake.

Please do Bessin or Lutnick (who has vanished now his best friend Musk is gone) look like they have any clue about anything? Does that genius Peter Navarro? The US Reserve Board ignores Trump as do all world leaders and multi-nationals especially his own multi-nationals.

What we have is a demented man over his head oblivious to the world living in a fantasy land and whose sycophants have no clue at this point what to do with.

 

[Fearandloathing]

"Traders are starting to price in the possibility that the U.S. economy might fall into a recession — and one Wall Street veteran says that might actually be the Trump administration’s plan.

Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura dubbed Wall Street’s most wired analyst by the Financial Times for his manic missives focused on the options market, laid out the argument in a note to clients.

He said President Donald Trump and his administration need an engineered recession to cause a growth slowdown and disinflation that will translate into Fed rate cuts and a meaningfully weaker U.S. dollar for the next phase of his economic agenda.

In another note to clients on Wednesday morning, McElligott cited remarks made by Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent on a focus on small business and consumers that will require a “rebalance,” as Trump in front of Congress on Tuesday night spoke of being “okay” with a little disturbance from tariffs.

The idea is that Fed rate cuts and supply-side stimulus from tax cuts and deregulation will then be able to build up the economy without the need for government spending."

Link

This is a good, simple explanation of what Trump is trying to do. It's a pretty tall order and I'm not sure that what works on paper will happen in the real world. And indeed, there are many critics of this idea. These are weeds I'm not eager to wade into.

I am sorry...

I have been over this a few dozen times and it makes no sense.

It makes no sense as this is far, far too complex for Trump to understand.

His motive in all things is greed! Everything is about him and his need to be worshiped.

$$$ is only the means of keeping score. If he can get more than anyone else, he's content, for now.

But remember, he's a dumb as snail. Complex shit that doesn't allow immediate gratification just isn't his bag.

 

[JohnfrmClevelan]

I am sorry...

I have been over this a few dozen times and it makes no sense.

It makes no sense as this is far, far too complex for Trump to understand.

His motive in all things is greed! Everything is about him and his need to be worshiped.

$$$ is only the means of keeping score. If he can get more than anyone else, he's content, for now.

But remember, he's a dumb as snail. Complex shit that doesn't allow immediate gratification just isn't his bag.

trump is just a useful idiot. There are smart people behind the scenes. Project 2025. The legal effort to overturn the 2020 election. trump's little brain can't comprehend what's going on, but they are using him to smash up the government into a malleable pile of parts.