Is the United States overpopulated or underpopulated?

[Gatsby]

Some people have claimed that the United States is overpopulated, raising concerns about climate change or other environmental issues. Some also cite economic concerns, like the increasing cost of housing or labor competition driving wages down.

Others, notably Elon Musk, have claimed that the United States is underpopulated, drawing attention to the economic problems we will face if our dependency ratio continues to get worse. Matt Yglesias wrote a book called One Billion Americans in which he argued that our low population relative to China is the biggest threat to global security. He also makes the moral argument that the United States is a pretty great place to live, so it would be good if more people could partake in that experience.

Which side are you on? Is the United States overpopulated or underpopulated?

 

[HIP56948]

I feel about the right number of people. If the states had a much better transportation infrastructure we might could have more.,

 

[The Stars Tremble]

The United States has nearly as much arable land as India, which has the most in the world. On that basis alone a population of a billion should be possible.

 

[rickc]

Well I guess that would depend on your perception of overpopulated.

To me new York city is overpopulated and parts of wyoming and Idaho are underpopulated.

For a comparison the United States and China have about the same land area. America has a population of around 350 million people. China has a population of 1,450,417,464.

 

[Court Jester]

over populated

 

[Felis Leo]

Some people have claimed that the United States is overpopulated, raising concerns about climate change or other environmental issues. Some also cite economic concerns, like the increasing cost of housing or labor competition driving wages down.

Others, notably Elon Musk, have claimed that the United States is underpopulated, drawing attention to the economic problems we will face if our dependency ratio continues to get worse. Matt Yglesias wrote a book called One Billion Americans in which he argued that our low population relative to China is the biggest threat to global security. He also makes the moral argument that the United States is a pretty great place to live, so it would be good if more people could partake in that experience.

Which side are you on? Is the United States overpopulated or underpopulated?

I think Yglesias is vastly overestimating the threat China poses because it seems he is comparing China as though it has a proportionally equivalent demography as that of the United States. But they do not. China is about to hit the biggest mass-population die off we have ever seen since the Black Death hit Europe because greater majority of their population will go from being middle-aged to elderly and they have a comparatively small younger generation shouldering the burden of carrying hundreds of millions of elders. After listening to Peter Zeihan, I am not worried about China as a competitor so much as a yawning maelstrom that threatens to suck in and destroy many trading partners and several multinational companies that depended on them as the keystone for their supply chains when the internal contradictions of their upside-down demographic pyramid combined with debt collapses in on itself.

As to your question, we are vastly underpopulated. We need millions...scratch that...tens of millions of new people to replace our workforce as our largest generation (i.e., the Baby Boomers) retire en masse which they have already begun to do. Thankfully unlike China, our Baby Boomers were not prevented from having children, and the Millenials are taking over. But we need more people to maintain productivity, innovation and growth now and into the future AND maintain the tax base required to keep up our social services spending and maintain our debt, and that requires more people. So we need to promote pro-natalist policies AND poach talent from around the world.

We also need millions of new homes (mainly multi-unit or two-bedroom, one-bathroom starter homes).

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Way overpopulated. The total American population would be like 200,000,000 If not for post 1965 mass immigration. The country would be more harmonious and have lower crime and less cost of living on a better quality of life.

Yes a billion people could live in America like in India or China, but who wants to live like that? With large heavily polluted never ending slums as far as the eye can see? In addition with a large population you can’t have a constitutional republic, only an authoritarian system where leaders engage in open ethnic conflict, like in America where the elite openly promote racist conspiracy theories against whites for better election prospects.

 

[RabidAlpaca]

Way overpopulated. The total American population would be like 200,000,000 If not for post 1965 mass immigration. The country would be more harmonious and have lower crime and less cost of living on a better quality of life.

Yes a billion people could live in America like in India or China, but who wants to live like that? With large heavily polluted never ending slums as far as the eye can see? In addition with a large population you can’t have a constitutional republic, only an authoritarian system where leaders engage in open ethnic conflict, like in America where the elite openly promote racist conspiracy theories against whites for better election prospects.

Lol, almost every post you make on this forum is engaging in "open ethnic conflict" and there aren't many people on DP more obsessed with race and racial purity than you.

Why would you be worried about an authoritarian system when you openly state you want an authoritarian government and regularly praise Putin and his regime?

 

[EMNofSeattle]

After listening to Peter Zeihan, I am not worried about China as a competitor so much as a yawning maelstrom that threatens to suck many people in and destroy several multinational companies that depended on them as the keystone for their supply chains when the internal contradictions of their upside-down demographic pyramid combined with debt collapses in on itself.

This is happening to the United States too.

As to your question, we are vastly underpopulated. We need millions...scratch that...tens of millions of new people to replace our workforce as our largest generation (i.e., the Baby Boomers) retire en masse which they have already begun to do.

No, we do not. Immigration is not a net benefit to most Americans. You can go to major cities like LA and see formerly middle class neighborhoods now effectively serving as slums. With high pollution, high crime, low social trust, low social capital, and most of the resources controlled by wealthy absentee owners. Which is who immigration is actually designed to benefit.

Thankfully unlike China, our Baby Boomers were not prevented from having children, and the Millenials are taking over. But we need more to maintain productivity, innovation and growth and that requires more people AND maintain the tax base required to keep up our social services spending and maintain our debt. So we need to poach talent from around the world.

No, we don’t. We have more then educational capacity and people in the United States, and furthermore “poaching talent from around the world” deprives other countries of their most educated people which creates internal crisis in other countries, which in turn encourages mass migration of poor from those countries.

We also need millions of new homes (mainly multi-unit or two-bedroom, one-bathroom starter homes).

We certainly do, but that’s just for the people already here. We can never keep up with demand if we maintain current immigration policy. Back during the 1920s the law that created the middle class was the 1926 immigration act which largely banned all immigration to the US.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Lol, almost every post you make on this forum is engaging in "open ethnic conflict" and there aren't many people on DP more obsessed with race and racial purity than you.

That’s not true at all. I’m not a leftist and thus cannot be more obsessed with race.

Why would you be worried about an authoritarian system when you openly state you want an authoritarian government and regularly praise Putin and his regime?

I never stated I want an authoritarian regime, only that we live in one now.

Putin is a good leader for Russia. He actually loves his country, unlike the modern Democratic Party who seem to condemn America as an evil racist slaveocracy every chance they can.

 

[Felis Leo]

This is happening to the United States too.

Nothing compared to what is happening in China. Not even close. Mass depopulation and the fallout therefrom is going to make China end up looking like something like a cross between Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge and Europe struck by the Black Death. A population implosion that does not make China slow down economically, but unable to sustain itself as a functioning nation state in many areas. A country in which crumbling "Ghost Cities" become the norm, rather than the strange exception.

No, we do not. Immigration is not a net benefit to most Americans. You can go to major cities like LA and see formerly middle class neighborhoods now effectively serving as slums. With high pollution, high crime, low social trust, low social capital, and most of the resources controlled by wealthy absentee owners. Which is who immigration is actually designed to benefit.

Yes it is. It brings in increased talent and productivity. Blaming crime and low social capital on immigration makes as much a sense as blaming the Catholic Church.

No, we don’t. We have more then educational capacity and people in the United States, and furthermore “poaching talent from around the world” deprives other countries of their most educated people which creates internal crisis in other countries, which in turn encourages mass migration of poor from those countries.

No country ever became a lousy place to live because its smart and successful people moved out. The smart and successful people moved out because it was a lousy place to be a smart or successful person.

We certainly do, but that’s just for the people already here.

I think homes should be purchased by anyone who can afford them so long as they are a legal resident of the United States. Not a multinational real estate investment trust.

We can never keep up with demand if we maintain current immigration policy. Back during the 1920s the law that created the middle class was the 1926 immigration act which largely banned all immigration to the US.

The middle class is not created by a lack of immigration, since immigrants typically enter the Middle Class within one or two generations.

 

[Gatsby]

I feel about the right number of people. If the states had a much better transportation infrastructure we might could have more.,

I think there's a chicken-and-egg problem there. We can't get a better transportation infrastructure without a more densely populated nation.

 

[Gatsby]

The United States has nearly as much arable land as India, which has the most in the world. On that basis alone a population of a billion should be possible.

Completely agree. I think we are extremely underpopulated relative to our carrying capacity.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Nothing compared to what is happening in China. Not even close. Mass depopulation and the fallout therefrom is going to make China end up looking like something like a cross between Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge and Europe struck by the Black Death. A population implosion that does not make China slow down economically, but unable to sustain itself as a functioning nation state in many areas.

This sounds like a great dystopian novel series, but it’s just a prediction. One that’s rather unlike since most Asian countries are undergoing declines and will likely just stagnate

A country in which crumbling "Ghost Cities" become the norm, rather than the strange exception.



Yes it is. It brings in increased talent and productivity. Blaming crime and low social capital on immigration makes as much a sense as blaming the Catholic Church.

No, it does not. Most immigrants are low income and low educated poor. They’re working low wage jobs which result in the reduction of purchasing power for our own poor. And yes we can blame crime on immigrant populations that exists because they are here. If there were zero southern Italians imported here then there would never be a Mafia. That was an imported problem.

No country ever became a lousy place to live because its smart and successful people moved out.

Wrong. South Africa and Zimbabwe come to mind

The smart and successful people moved out because it was a lousy place to be a smart or successful person.

Also this is a claim you cannot support. It can also be that you can live an ok like as an educated person in India, but if you win the immigration lottery you can live a substantially better life leeching off of the social capital of Britain or the US.

I think homes should be purchased by anyone who can afford them so long as they are a legal resident of the United States. Not a multinational real estate investment trust.

Well I would love for a billion dollars too. Let’s collect wishes. We should just make sure the population doesn’t increase so fast that REITs are profitable as a business model

The middle class is not created by a lack of immigration, since immigrants typically enter the Middle Class within one or two generations.

In the past they did, when America was less populated and America had more resources. That I can see many immigrants who are not educated ones when they arrive largely stay lower class. All of the traditional pathways to the middle class have been largely closed by capital appreciation. If you have to spend 3/4 of you income in LA to afford rent you have nothing to put forward to pay for education or a house later.

 

[Gatsby]

I think Yglesias is vastly overestimating the threat China poses because it seems he is comparing China as though it has a proportionally equivalent demography as that of the United States. But they do not. China is about to hit the biggest mass-population die off we have ever seen since the Black Death hit Europe because greater majority of their population will go from being middle-aged to elderly and they have a comparatively small younger generation shouldering the burden of carrying hundreds of millions of elders. After listening to Peter Zeihan, I am not worried about China as a competitor so much as a yawning maelstrom that threatens to suck in and destroy many trading partners and several multinational companies that depended on them as the keystone for their supply chains when the internal contradictions of their upside-down demographic pyramid combined with debt collapses in on itself.

As to your question, we are vastly underpopulated. We need millions...scratch that...tens of millions of new people to replace our workforce as our largest generation (i.e., the Baby Boomers) retire en masse which they have already begun to do. Thankfully unlike China, our Baby Boomers were not prevented from having children, and the Millenials are taking over. But we need more people to maintain productivity, innovation and growth now and into the future AND maintain the tax base required to keep up our social services spending and maintain our debt, and that requires more people. So we need to promote pro-natalist policies AND poach talent from around the world.

We also need millions of new homes (mainly multi-unit or two-bedroom, one-bathroom starter homes).

Great post. I agree with every word of it.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Completely agree. I think we are extremely underpopulated relative to our carrying capacity.

You can move it Mumbai and live in a slum right now if that’s the lifestyle you want

 

[Gatsby]

No, it does not. Most immigrants are low income and low educated poor.

This isn't a law of nature, it's a policy choice that is changeable. Many countries (e.g. Canada, Australia) focus more on skills-based immigration and less on family-based immigration. Unsurprisingly, their immigrants tend to be higher income and better educated. America could do the same with a different set of policies.

Also this is a claim you cannot support. It can also be that you can live an ok like as an educated person in India, but if you win the immigration lottery you can live a substantially better life leeching off of the social capital of Britain or the US.

"Leeching off the social capital." As in, living in the nation and working a job like anyone else? What exactly did YOU do to earn your spot in America? If anything those immigrants are more entitled to that social capital, because they actually had to put in some effort to make it happen instead of being born into it.

Well I would love for a billion dollars too. Let’s collect wishes. We should just make sure the population doesn’t increase so fast that REITs are profitable as a business model

Instead of artificially constraining housing demand, we should stop artificially constraining housing supply, through dumb zoning laws.

 

[phoenix2020]

Underpopulated, we need about 3x more individuals.

 

[Gatsby]

You can move it Mumbai and live in a slum right now if that’s the lifestyle you want

If the US population tripled, our population density would be about the same as Austria. And still much less dense than France, Italy, or Germany. None of which come to mind as overly-crowded dystopian hellscapes.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

This isn't a law of nature, it's a policy choice that is changeable. Many countries (e.g. Canada, Australia) focus more on skills-based immigration and less on family-based immigration.

So?

Unsurprisingly, their immigrants tend to be higher income and better educated. America could do the same with a different set of policies.

I don’t think we need any higher education immigrants either. And in any event most “high education” immigrants are really just low wage scabs brought in by domestic employers. They’re not smarter or more educated then domestic workers they replace

"Leeching off the social capital." As in, living in the nation and working a job like anyone else?

As in coming to a foreign country they and their ancestors did not create.

What exactly did YOU do to earn your spot in America?

I was born as an American citizen.

If anything those immigrants are more entitled to that social capital,

No, they’re not. You do not have a right or another country. Though I wish most open borders advocates would just directly say this and try to Run for election on that idea.,

because they actually had to put in some effort to make it happen instead of being born into it.

Meaning they try to buy their way into a society their ancestors didn’t build and which they have no particular loyalty to.

Instead of artificially constraining housing demand, we should stop artificially constraining housing supply, through dumb zoning laws.

Or, maybe because zoning laws are enacted to maintain quality of life of residents, we should take the hint the population is growing too fast and cut off immigration. Which will largely fix the problem. I don’t want to cover formerly suburban neighborhoods with favelas or communist apartment towers

 

[EMNofSeattle]

If the US population tripled, our population density would be about the same as Austria.

Across the whole country, but the vast majority of the population would live in urban agglomerations resembling Manila or Bombay

And still much less dense than France, Italy, or Germany. None of which come to mind as overly-crowded dystopian hellscapes.

Southern Italy is not a great place to live, and given we’re not importing millions of Germans, I think you should be looking at Rio or Manila or Mumbai for an example what the future looks like if we have a billion people.

Plus you aren’t even accounting for the fact there’s not enough resources in America for the standard of living for a billion people to live remotely like what 300,000,000 people currently live like in America.

 

[phoenix2020]

You can move it Mumbai and live in a slum right now if that’s the lifestyle you want

Why would anyone listen to your racist opinions of immigrants when, let’s face it, most who have arrived on our shores since 1965 have added more value to our nation than, say, your brethern? In any case, it’s cool that those with your point of view are being replaced by immigrant patriots who will never have to interact with people like yourself. We’ll be able to shape America into a modern, multicultural, multiethnic, technologically advanced society that has no place for racists who think 1965 was the start of something terrible.

I realize that there are some people who really struggle with this concept, but fortunately, for them and for the rest of us, they are advanced in their years and not long for this world.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Why would anyone listen to your racist opinions of immigrants when, let’s face it, most who have arrived on our shores since 1965 have added more value to our nation than, say, your brethern?

This sounds racist against born Americans. Which I think is the point. Leftists want many more people to exploit. Amazon openly says in company memos that diversity is the biggest obstacle to unionization and shockingly, lobbies for more immigration

In any case, it’s cool that those with your point of view are being replaced by immigrant patriots who will never have to interact with people like yourself. We’ll be able to shape America into a modern, multicultural, multiethnic, technologically advanced society that has no place for racists who think 1965 was the start of something terrible.

Standard of living for the majority of the population has rapidly declined since then.

The “multicultural and multiethnic” society has only created massive urban problems that wouldn’t otherwise exist, and our technology largely came from small populations of scientists from Europe and American universities.

 

[phoenix2020]

So?

I don’t think we need any higher education immigrants either. And in any event most “high education” immigrants are really just low wage scabs brought in by domestic employers. They’re not smarter or more educated then domestic workers they replace

Who cares what you think?

As in coming to a foreign country they and their ancestors did not create.

I was born as an American citizen.

No, they’re not. You do not have a right or another country. Though I wish most open borders advocates would just directly say this and try to Run for election on that idea.,

Meaning they try to buy their way into a society their ancestors didn’t build and which they have no particular loyalty to.

Or, maybe because zoning laws are enacted to maintain quality of life of residents, we should take the hint the population is growing too fast and cut off immigration. Which will largely fix the problem. I don’t want to cover formerly suburban neighborhoods with favelas or communist apartment towers

Immigrants are continuing to arrive in this country and many of them are living next to you. Your anger and reticence toward them is, for the most part, ignored.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Who cares what you think?

The vast majority of Americans of all races want far less immigration

Immigrants are continuing to arrive in this country and many of them are living next to you. Your anger and reticence toward them is, for the most part, ignored.

Eventually that will have to be reduced. And the sooner it’s done the easier it will be for society. Increase immigration is not popular with anyone except those who directly benefit, which is a minority of the population, and a very small one.