Is Arizona a Bellwether?

[Michael Cole]

Democrats' Chances of Beating Trump-Backed Candidates in ...

Republicans Kari Lake and Blake Masters have embraced Trump's 2020 election claims, but recent polling suggests that strategy isn't paying off.

www.newsweek.com

This is an interesting short article based on polling. Let's assume the polling is accurate for discussion. We need not look far for drastically inaccurate polling: Kansas. Newsweek consults several polls and averages. It's a well-reasoned article.

In short, though Arizona still leans right:

An analysis published by FiveThirtyEight in May shows that Arizona has a partisan lean of 7.6 points in favor of Republicans. The average represents the "margin difference between how" Arizona "votes and how the country votes overall in congressional and gubernatorial elections, according to a blend of presidential and state-legislative election results."

...the Democrats seem positioned to retain one Senate seat and gain the governorship. Of note, the governor's race is between an election-denying former TV personality and a seasoned government official. Deja vu all over again.

What strikes me is that Arizona is still a conservative state, yet they are voting for Democrats. Could this be a bellwether for other states that lean right? Have traditional Republicans and right-leaning independents had enough of the crazy?

 

[Phys251]

Democrats' Chances of Beating Trump-Backed Candidates in ...

Republicans Kari Lake and Blake Masters have embraced Trump's 2020 election claims, but recent polling suggests that strategy isn't paying off.

www.newsweek.com

This is an interesting short article based on polling. Let's assume the polling is accurate for discussion. We need not look far for drastically inaccurate polling: Kansas. Newsweek consults several polls and averages. It's a well-reasoned article.

In short, though Arizona still leans right:

An analysis published by FiveThirtyEight in May shows that Arizona has a partisan lean of 7.6 points in favor of Republicans. The average represents the "margin difference between how" Arizona "votes and how the country votes overall in congressional and gubernatorial elections, according to a blend of presidential and state-legislative election results."

...the Democrats seem positioned to retain one Senate seat and gain the governorship. Of note, the governor's race is between an election-denying former TV personality and a seasoned government official. Deja vu all over again.

What strikes me is that Arizona is still a conservative state, yet they are voting for Democrats. Could this be the bellwether for other states that lean right? Have traditional Republicans had enough of the crazy?

The Southwest has been trending blue for awhile. In Arizona's case it's partly because of the increase in the Hispanic population, which leans Democratic.

 

[btthegreat]

Democrats' Chances of Beating Trump-Backed Candidates in ...

Republicans Kari Lake and Blake Masters have embraced Trump's 2020 election claims, but recent polling suggests that strategy isn't paying off.

www.newsweek.com

This is an interesting short article based on polling. Let's assume the polling is accurate for discussion. We need not look far for drastically inaccurate polling: Kansas. Newsweek consults several polls and averages. It's a well-reasoned article.

In short, though Arizona still leans right:

An analysis published by FiveThirtyEight in May shows that Arizona has a partisan lean of 7.6 points in favor of Republicans. The average represents the "margin difference between how" Arizona "votes and how the country votes overall in congressional and gubernatorial elections, according to a blend of presidential and state-legislative election results."

...the Democrats seem positioned to retain one Senate seat and gain the governorship. Of note, the governor's race is between an election-denying former TV personality and a seasoned government official. Deja vu all over again.

What strikes me is that Arizona is still a conservative state, yet they are voting for Democrats. Could this be a bellwether for other states that lean right? Have traditional Republicans and right-leaning independents had enough of the crazy?

I suspect you assume those Democrat votes are getting counted, tabulated and eventually certified by non-partisan independent observers and patriots who believe in the foundations of democracy, more than some conspiracy theory that may justify cheating and lying to a predominately Republican state legislative committee.

I don't think those polls or the views they may reflect, matter nearly as much as they would have before 2020. I do not trust Arizona to run a clean election anymore.

 

[Michael Cole]

The Southwest has been trending blue for awhile. In Arizona's case it's partly because of the increase in the Hispanic population, which leans Democratic.

That would seem reasonable, and I'm sure it explains much, but it doesn't explain why the majority of Arizonans lean Republican.

My first reaction was similar; southwest. It's fairly well sewed up Democratic (POTUS) with only Utah going for Trump. That leaves Texas which is both southwest and south-central. (Oklahoma is neither south nor west, IMO.) Will we see the second coming of Ann Richards in Texas anytime soon?

As an anecdote - but to me it was one hell of an anecdote - I visited Arizona in early June. One of the women camping next to my site, a native Arizonan, brought up Arizona politics. I don't talk politics anywhere but here, so I mentioned I was independent and did a lot of nodding and "uh-huh"-ing. Anyway, to sum up, according to her, there is a far-right crazy (her words) faction of the Republican Party which has taken over a good portion of the state. She praised her conservative upbringing and lamented the transformation of her brother from an apolitical individual to a raving lunatic, because of Trump. It's only an anecdote, but it sure rang true to me.

 

[Michael Cole]

I suspect you assume those Democrat votes are getting counted, tabulated and eventually certified by non-partisan independent observers and patriots who believe in the foundations of democracy, more than some conspiracy theory that may justify cheating and lying to a predominately Republican state legislative committee.

I don't think those polls or the views they may reflect, matter nearly as much as they would have before 2020. I do not trust Arizona to run a clean election anymore.

I understand such concerns, and I share them.

I don't think this will happen in Arizona. The current Republican governor is not a Kari Lake fan.

GOP's Ducey Rips Trump Pick Kari Lake in Arizona Gov. Rac...

The outgoing governor has backed Karrin Taylor Robson for the GOP gubernatorial nomination against Lake.

www.newsweek.com

Just for giggles, I like this comment from the article:

Lake is currently behind the 'radical Dem' candidate. Sometimes 'a face like candy with a body part just begging to be grabbed' is not the sound political choice. But it was trump's choice.

 

[btthegreat]

I understand such concerns, and I share them.

I don't think this will happen in Arizona. The current Republican governor is not a Kari Lake fan.

GOP's Ducey Rips Trump Pick Kari Lake in Arizona Gov. Rac...

The outgoing governor has backed Karrin Taylor Robson for the GOP gubernatorial nomination against Lake.

www.newsweek.com

Just for giggles, I like this comment from the article:

Lake is currently behind the 'radical Dem' candidate. Sometimes 'a face like candy with a body part just begging to be grabbed' is not the sound political choice. But it was trump's choice.

they have taken boxes of cockroaches, rats and termites and let them lose throughout the house. I am not sure a well intentioned governor can irradicate them.

I did enjoy your quote though!

 

[Michael Cole]

they have taken cockroaches and termites and intentionally let them lose throughout the house. I am not sure a well intentioned governor irradicate them.

Agreed, but it is a good sign. The governor does have the power to reveal false claims and fight. I'm hoping everything is proper, and though it wouldn't surprise me, I think the true results will prevail. Semi-blind optimism. In the long run, it hasn't failed me.

I did enjoy your quote though!

I thought it was pretty hilarious.

 

[Razoo]

Democrats' Chances of Beating Trump-Backed Candidates in ...

Republicans Kari Lake and Blake Masters have embraced Trump's 2020 election claims, but recent polling suggests that strategy isn't paying off.

www.newsweek.com

This is an interesting short article based on polling. Let's assume the polling is accurate for discussion. We need not look far for drastically inaccurate polling: Kansas. Newsweek consults several polls and averages. It's a well-reasoned article.

In short, though Arizona still leans right:

An analysis published by FiveThirtyEight in May shows that Arizona has a partisan lean of 7.6 points in favor of Republicans. The average represents the "margin difference between how" Arizona "votes and how the country votes overall in congressional and gubernatorial elections, according to a blend of presidential and state-legislative election results."

...the Democrats seem positioned to retain one Senate seat and gain the governorship. Of note, the governor's race is between an election-denying former TV personality and a seasoned government official. Deja vu all over again.

What strikes me is that Arizona is still a conservative state, yet they are voting for Democrats. Could this be a bellwether for other states that lean right? Have traditional Republicans and right-leaning independents had enough of the crazy?

Right Wing nuts aka Fake Republicans are nowhere near what republicans were ...................

When one thinks of right wing thinking that has ruled the party for the past 42 years brings military dictatorships come to mind such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China ultimately we see Fascism. Let's
not fool ourselves. How many want to live under the rule of dictatorships.......?

 

[btthegreat]

Right Wing nuts aka Fake Republicans are nowhere near what republicans were ...................

When one thinks of right wing thinking that has ruled the party for the past 42 years brings military dictatorships come to mind such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China ultimately we see Fascism. Let's
not fool ourselves. How many want to live under the rule of dictatorships.......?

Apparently more than we ever imagined. There is a certain feeling of order, and some comfort that someone else has to make the decisions, I guess. Its a simpler more predictable world when might consistently makes right in the political realm.

 

[Michael Cole]

Right Wing nuts aka Fake Republicans are nowhere near what republicans were ...................

When one thinks of right wing thinking that has ruled the party for the past 42 years brings military dictatorships come to mind such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China ultimately we see Fascism. Let's
not fool ourselves. How many want to live under the rule of dictatorships.......?

Yeah, Arizona was Cyberwing Ninjanut heaven for awhile. That's the radical faction of Arizona state leaders, whom are really only few.

The point is, a state that is still Republican leaning, that prior to 2020 voted for a Democrat only in 1996 (since 1952), has two Democratic Senators, is about to retain one and is positioned to take the governorship from the GOP.

It's not your average everyday conservative state.

 

[poweRob]

The Southwest has been trending blue for awhile. In Arizona's case it's partly because of the increase in the Hispanic population, which leans Democratic.

There is a massively funded movement to buy up latino area radio stations and blast latin Rush Limbaughs' constantly lying at them. And it's working unfortunately.

 

[Michael Cole]

Apparently more than we ever imagined. There is a certain feeling of order, and some comfort that someone else has to make the decisions, I guess. Its a simpler more predictable world when might consistently makes right in the political realm.

It's a weakness. I think it centers more on need than convenience.

People with authoritarian worldviews see themselves along the hierarchical continuum of power. Old as humanity. Whoever managed to place themselves one rung under god, pharaohs/kings and popes, possessed unitary power over all.

From there, the rungs include priests, bishops, lords, and assorted military leaders and wealthy merchants, on down to the family.

The family, one father and one mother, where the man is head of household by way of that hierarchical continuum of power.

Nothing really wrong with this...if it were 1957. The weakness I mentioned is the inability to adapt to change. History tells us progress moves forward, eventually obliterating any and all obstacles. There have been many attempts at reversing progress - WWII probably the most significant - but progress will win in the end.

 

[mike2810]

In Arizona among registered voters Republicans have a slight lead over other Party's. What will decide who wins in Arizona is the Independents. They make up 34% of registered voters.
Republican 35%
Democrats 31%
Independents 34%
(I rounded the numbers)

Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State

azsos.gov

imo, Masters and Lake will not convince enough Independents that they are the correct choice. Their position on the 2020 election was stolen and prolife will not set well with the majority of Independents.

Lake is also associated with the Oath Keepers and supports many of the Q theories.
Masters add are funny. During the Primary his adds had him as Trump's chosen one and only true conservative. Now some of his adds are saying he a true Independent.

imo, Kelly will win the Senate and Hobbs will win the Governor Office. I highly doubt Finchem will win SOS.

 

[Grandpappy]

I'm sad for the damage the invasion of outsiders have done to my state.
Stupid loopy ass Californians.

 

[mike2810]

I'm sad for the damage the invasion of outsiders have done to my state.
Stupid loopy ass Californians.

Are you saying you don't believe people have a right to move to different States?

 

[Grandpappy]

Are you saying you don't believe people have a right to move to different States?

There isn't enough water for all those fools. Never has been, even in the 80s.

 

[mike2810]

There isn't enough water for all those fools. Never has been, even in the 80s.

Water is a concern.

Little confused you show as San Diego as location. If true, you can have Blake Masters back. Arizona will throw in Kari Lake for free.

 

[Grandpappy]

Water is a concern.

Little confused you show as San Diego as location. If true, you can have Blake Masters back. Arizona will throw in Kari Lake for free.

I'm a second generation Arizonan. I'm being held in San Diego against my will. Sort of.

 

[beefheart]

Kari Lake is crazier than a shithouse rat. And she has not tried to de radicalize her campaign for the general. I think she loses, she is exactly the candidate you want to run against.

Brakemasters is gonna get slaughtered by Mark Kelly. Kelly has a lot of support from republicans.

 

[Michael Cole]

I'm sad for the damage the invasion of outsiders have done to my state.
Stupid loopy ass Californians.

Who would these outsiders be? Why are they voting for Democrats? They are solidly Republican, so why the preference for Democrats at the polls? I know why. So do you. It's because the Democrats are the sane people.

We went through this a decade ago.

Remember Sharron Angle? She's the reason Harry Reid kept his seat. You think Angle was crazy? Wanna know who gave us Sharron Angle?

 

[SCrider]

I'm a second generation Arizonan. I'm being held in San Diego against my will. Sort of.

You should man up and leave.

 

[Ginger Ale]

AZ will vote blue because we have a lot of independents here who don't want a religious government climbing up their asses.

AZ's motto was "live and let live," now it's "God wants to control what you do, and Trump is his savior."

That won't really fly well out here with the desert rat population. Only the crazy mid west transplants want that shit.

Besides, we've started bringing a ton of business here, and businesses that employee a lot of liberals. That's influencing AZ and turning it purple. Can't grab all the big tech, and not be influenced by it.

 

[beefheart]

You should man up and leave.

No, I don't want him in my state.

 

[azgreg]

The Southwest has been trending blue for awhile. In Arizona's case it's partly because of the increase in the Hispanic population, which leans Democratic.

I read somewhere that in Arizona every 30 seconds an old white person dies and a Hispanic becomes eligible to vote.

 

[Michael Cole]

‘Never in a Million Years’: Arizona Republicans Grapple with the Rising Fringe

Mainstream Republicans once laughed at Mark Finchem. Now the 2020 election denier and his Trumpist allies are close to taking power.

www.politico.com

“How can [Mark Finchem] go from that, to the Republican nominee for secretary of state? I mean, it’s simple. He won the ‘Arizona Apprentice’ for secretary of state,” Boyer says. “Abe Hamadeh for AG? Kari Lake for governor? It’s very simple. If you can fog up a mirror and win the ‘Arizona Apprentice,’ you’re good.”

The election deniers. Without Kari Lake at the top, I don't think Finchem will step outside the law, if he wins.

These are the TEA Party anti-McCain crowd. I think they're going down.