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Iran, EU and Natural Gas in this new order (1 Viewer)

phoenix2020

Founder, Cyborg Gorillas
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First some facts and baseline suppositions:
  • Iran has the world's second largest proven natural gas reserves after Russia.
  • Iran and the EU together seemed willing to work together to keep the framework for the old nuclear deal intact after Trump pulled out so hopefully there is some good will there.
  • With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an order is changing and some states are considering actions previously hard to imagine e.g. Finland joining NATO
  • The United States-Israel / Iran relationship needs to go somewhere positive
  • Saudi Arabia is not critical to the United States in the century to come, particularly given expected transitions in energy production
Given the above, I would posit that there's never been a better time to do a Great Reset on the relationship between the West and Iran. Restore the nuclear deal, start a series of confidence building measures, engage Iran to meet EU natural gas needs. This has numerous other tails and potential windfalls:
  • The opportunity to bring Iran into closer orbit with the west in this century's coming competition with China.
  • Iran and India have extremely friendly relations these days, even having signed a mutual defense pact, and this brings India's 1.4 billion people into closer orbit with the West as well
  • It's an opportunity to heal a rift that's stupid and counterproductive
In times of change, smart decision makers will consider that the ground rules have changed and what seemed insane before might now make a lot of sense. In this vein, I would propose that now's the time to pounce on positive engagement with Iran.

Counter-point to my own argument: Iran may already have been lost to China, in which case sanctions by the West will have the same long term effect that they are having against Russia e.g. not enough to meaningful change anything: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–China_25-year_Cooperation_Program
 
First some facts and baseline suppositions:
  • Iran has the world's second largest proven natural gas reserves after Russia.
  • Iran and the EU together seemed willing to work together to keep the framework for the old nuclear deal intact after Trump pulled out so hopefully there is some good will there.
  • With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an order is changing and some states are considering actions previously hard to imagine e.g. Finland joining NATO
  • The United States-Israel / Iran relationship needs to go somewhere positive
  • Saudi Arabia is not critical to the United States in the century to come, particularly given expected transitions in energy production
Given the above, I would posit that there's never been a better time to do a Great Reset on the relationship between the West and Iran. Restore the nuclear deal, start a series of confidence building measures, engage Iran to meet EU natural gas needs. This has numerous other tails and potential windfalls:
  • The opportunity to bring Iran into closer orbit with the west in this century's coming competition with China.
  • Iran and India have extremely friendly relations these days, even having signed a mutual defense pact, and this brings India's 1.4 billion people into closer orbit with the West as well
  • It's an opportunity to heal a rift that's stupid and counterproductive
In times of change, smart decision makers will consider that the ground rules have changed and what seemed insane before might now make a lot of sense. In this vein, I would propose that now's the time to pounce on positive engagement with Iran.

Counter-point to my own argument: Iran may already have been lost to China, in which case sanctions by the West will have the same long term effect that they are having against Russia e.g. not enough to meaningful change anything: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–China_25-year_Cooperation_Program

Saudi Arabia IS not critical to the United States in the century to come, but Iran is. Explain.

Please expound upon how you expect United States/ Israel relations with Iran will be more positive.
 
First some facts and baseline suppositions:
  • Iran has the world's second largest proven natural gas reserves after Russia.
  • Iran and the EU together seemed willing to work together to keep the framework for the old nuclear deal intact after Trump pulled out so hopefully there is some good will there.
  • With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an order is changing and some states are considering actions previously hard to imagine e.g. Finland joining NATO
  • The United States-Israel / Iran relationship needs to go somewhere positive
  • Saudi Arabia is not critical to the United States in the century to come, particularly given expected transitions in energy production
Given the above, I would posit that there's never been a better time to do a Great Reset on the relationship between the West and Iran. Restore the nuclear deal, start a series of confidence building measures, engage Iran to meet EU natural gas needs. This has numerous other tails and potential windfalls:
  • The opportunity to bring Iran into closer orbit with the west in this century's coming competition with China.
  • Iran and India have extremely friendly relations these days, even having signed a mutual defense pact, and this brings India's 1.4 billion people into closer orbit with the West as well
  • It's an opportunity to heal a rift that's stupid and counterproductive
In times of change, smart decision makers will consider that the ground rules have changed and what seemed insane before might now make a lot of sense. In this vein, I would propose that now's the time to pounce on positive engagement with Iran.

Counter-point to my own argument: Iran may already have been lost to China, in which case sanctions by the West will have the same long term effect that they are having against Russia e.g. not enough to meaningful change anything: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–China_25-year_Cooperation_Program

That ship very well might have sailed. The dictatorship in Tehran has only been strengthened by past failures at negotiating, and after decades under the threat of US invasion the “look how awful the Russians are for invading Ukraine” card holds little weight.
 
First some facts and baseline suppositions:
  • Iran has the world's second largest proven natural gas reserves after Russia.
  • Iran and the EU together seemed willing to work together to keep the framework for the old nuclear deal intact after Trump pulled out so hopefully there is some good will there.
  • With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an order is changing and some states are considering actions previously hard to imagine e.g. Finland joining NATO
  • The United States-Israel / Iran relationship needs to go somewhere positive
  • Saudi Arabia is not critical to the United States in the century to come, particularly given expected transitions in energy production
Given the above, I would posit that there's never been a better time to do a Great Reset on the relationship between the West and Iran. Restore the nuclear deal, start a series of confidence building measures, engage Iran to meet EU natural gas needs. This has numerous other tails and potential windfalls:
  • The opportunity to bring Iran into closer orbit with the west in this century's coming competition with China.
  • Iran and India have extremely friendly relations these days, even having signed a mutual defense pact, and this brings India's 1.4 billion people into closer orbit with the West as well
  • It's an opportunity to heal a rift that's stupid and counterproductive
In times of change, smart decision makers will consider that the ground rules have changed and what seemed insane before might now make a lot of sense. In this vein, I would propose that now's the time to pounce on positive engagement with Iran.

Counter-point to my own argument: Iran may already have been lost to China, in which case sanctions by the West will have the same long term effect that they are having against Russia e.g. not enough to meaningful change anything: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–China_25-year_Cooperation_Program

With all due respect, phoenix2020, why buy natural gas from Iran when the United States could simply bring back its support for the East-Med Pipeline?

I mean, Europe may have to wait until a Republican is back in office in the White House, but I think that is a far more viable option, with the gas and pipeline being controlled by the democracies of Greece, Cyprus and Israel.
 
With all due respect, phoenix2020, why buy natural gas from Iran when the United States could simply bring back its support for the East-Med Pipeline?

I mean, Europe may have to wait until a Republican is back in office in the White House, but I think that is a far more viable option, with the gas and pipeline being controlled by the democracies of Greece, Cyprus and Israel.
What really SHOULD be happening is that Europe now to a larger extent just ditch gas.
 

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