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Iran: A Rock and A Hard Place

GarzaUK

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I know there is a thread in todays news, but I'm starting a new one here.

I think we all heard the news about Iran breaking the UN seals. I personally I'm very nervous about Iran (especially now) and as a last resort I would consider going to war as Iran REALLY IS a threat - unlike Iraq. Iran has the missile technology to bomb Israel and Europe and a nuke at the end of one of those missiles terrify me. Iran has played this carefully I've been reading people's different reaction - war, sanctions. Thought I'd have a go and break down those options.

War with Iran
~Invasion should wipe out the nuclear threat
~Iran is not like the flat deserts of Iraq. Mountains and hills prevail - a guerillas dream. Great for ambushes, great for hiding.
~I'm afraid Iran's army is not a little better than Iraq's army, it is ALOT better. It is the 8th largest army in the world and one of the world's most powerful. 350,000 active soldiers, 220,00 conscripts and millions with 2 years military experience (compulsory). Of course America has better technology, but hey we learned in Iraq that doesn't count for much.
~Notice Bush hasn't mention war. No-one can remember a time when America was this weak, spread thin. Draft might be needed.
~No-one knows how dissent Iranians will react

Bomb Nuclear infrastructure
This seems a good half-way solution however:
~Western Intelligence in Iran is close to zero. It is an impossibility to find all nuclear sites hidden. There is more than likely facilities underneath the mountains and sattilites can't penetrate rock.
~We have no idea how dissent Iranians will react
~Iranian invasion of Iraq? Not likely but possible.

UN Sanctions
~Iran is in a strong place. One of the biggest oil producers in the world, majority of Russian and Chinese oil imports come from Iran. China and Russia could veto sanctions.
~The madmen in charge of Iran don't care as it will be the poor that will suffer i.e. the Iranian dissents
~Unlikely to stop nuke production

I think it's safe to say that the President of Iran has us by the balls. :shock:
 

Gardener

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GarzaUK said:
I know there is a thread in todays news, but I'm starting a new one here.

I think we all heard the news about Iran breaking the UN seals. I personally I'm very nervous about Iran (especially now) and as a last resort I would consider going to war as Iran REALLY IS a threat - unlike Iraq. Iran has the missile technology to bomb Israel and Europe and a nuke at the end of one of those missiles terrify me. Iran has played this carefully I've been reading people's different reaction - war, sanctions. Thought I'd have a go and break down those options.

War with Iran
~Invasion should wipe out the nuclear threat
~Iran is not like the flat deserts of Iraq. Mountains and hills prevail - a guerillas dream. Great for ambushes, great for hiding.
~I'm afraid Iran's army is not a little better than Iraq's army, it is ALOT better. It is the 8th largest army in the world and one of the world's most powerful. 350,000 active soldiers, 220,00 conscripts and millions with 2 years military experience (compulsory). Of course America has better technology, but hey we learned in Iraq that doesn't count for much.
~Notice Bush hasn't mention war. No-one can remember a time when America was this weak, spread thin. Draft might be needed.
~No-one knows how dissent Iranians will react

Bomb Nuclear infrastructure
This seems a good half-way solution however:
~Western Intelligence in Iran is close to zero. It is an impossibility to find all nuclear sites hidden. There is more than likely facilities underneath the mountains and sattilites can't penetrate rock.
~We have no idea how dissent Iranians will react
~Iranian invasion of Iraq? Not likely but possible.

UN Sanctions
~Iran is in a strong place. One of the biggest oil producers in the world, majority of Russian and Chinese oil imports come from Iran. China and Russia could veto sanctions.
~The madmen in charge of Iran don't care as it will be the poor that will suffer i.e. the Iranian dissents
~Unlikely to stop nuke production

I think it's safe to say that the President of Iran has us by the balls. :shock:

From what I have read, it seems that Iran has placed many of its facilities below heavily populated areas. Working the propaganda angle, no doubt, and ready to use civilian casualties to maximum advantage. This certainly ups the ante considerably.
 

bucket

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GarzaUK said:
UN Sanctions
~Iran is in a strong place. One of the biggest oil producers in the world, majority of Russian and Chinese oil imports come from Iran. China and Russia could veto sanctions.
~The madmen in charge of Iran don't care as it will be the poor that will suffer i.e. the Iranian dissents
~Unlikely to stop nuke production
I disagree I feel Iran is weak especially economically which is what sanctions are all about, economic warfare. I also feel she is terribly vulnerable to domestic pressures.

I think sanctions should be at the top of your list when thinking of means or measures to convince the Iranians to back down and accept their more than generous offer.

True Iran is an exporter of oil but she has many internal conditions that greatly negate this advantage. Petrol or Gasoline is greatly subsidized in Iran and even with it at approx. .40 USD a gallon Iranians feel it is too expensive. True as oil prices increase Iran's oil export's profits increase but so does the need for her to work even harder at keeping the price artificially low domestically. Also Iran's refineries can't keep up with it's own demands and Iran has to import petrol so again the high cost per barrel is a double edged sword.

Iran also has grown increasingly dependent on European imports, in fact her top three import partners are all European. Sanctions are being discussed at a time when Iran is increasingly under more and more internal pressure economically and the Iranian consumers are already complaining about the price increases on durable and needed goods, so Europe wields quite the stick on this issue.

Lastly I think the fact that fears for the instability domestically that Iran's new leader will create.... international opposition, poor political management, a desire to pursue more socialistic economic models and a lack of economic realities has caused a great amount of capital flight.

I don't think Iran is in the position you give her credit for, and so I think economic sanctions could be very useful and I would hope that if the UN won't implement them that at least the EU will.
 
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I don't understand why we're even discussing war with Iran. Iran is not our problem..Iran is Israel's problem. Let Israel resolve it's own international issues for a change.
 

bucket

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Napoleon's Nightingale said:
I don't understand why we're even discussing war with Iran. Iran is not our problem..Iran is Israel's problem. Let Israel resolve it's own international issues for a change.
Well I am not discussing war and I don't think any of the nation's who are pursuing this issue with Iran are either. How is this an international issue with Israel? Israel is not a member of the NPT, nor is she a sitting or permanent member of the UNSC. The only thing Israel is predominately in regards to Iran is an escape goat, which seems to kind of fall into line with your own views.
 
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bucket said:
How is this an international issue with Israel?
Because Israel is the only country that would be threatened by Iran's nuclear capabilities. Because Iran's stated position is that Israel should be wipped off the face of the earth.

bucket said:
which seems to kind of fall into line with your own views.
And you base that comment on what?
 

cnredd

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Napoleon's Nightingale said:
Because Israel is the only country that would be threatened by Iran's nuclear capabilities. Because Iran's stated position is that Israel should be wipped off the face of the earth.
And that's it?...That's the logic?...:confused:

I can see Iran's leadership now at the press conference...

"Once Isreal gets wiped off the face of the eath, then we'll STOP creating nuclear weapons because we're very good friends with the rest of the world."...

Keep believing that...
 

Gardener

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Napoleon's Nightingale said:
I don't understand why we're even discussing war with Iran. Iran is not our problem..Iran is Israel's problem. Let Israel resolve it's own international issues for a change.

I get it. When people threaten genocide, the fact of their genocidal nature should lead us to conclude that it is only their target's problem. Your indifference says much.

Please document that which would support your notion that Israel somehow deserves these threats from Iran? When have Israeli leaders vowed to wipe Iran off the face of the planet? What agressive actions has Israel taken against Iran? Have they blocaded the Persian Gulf? Have they marshalled hundreds of thousands of troops on Iran's borders ready to invade? What?


Also, your shortsighted response does not take into account the very real problems the whole world faces in regards to nuclear radiation. Iran Nukes Israel. Israel retaliates, perhaps to a much greater degree. Nuclear material is unleashed that drifts due to the circulating effects of the atmosphere. We're not talking rocks and sticks here, after all, but nuclear devices, so how is that *not* the world's problem.
 

bucket

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Napoleon's Nightingale said:
Because Israel is the only country that would be threatened by Iran's nuclear capabilities. Because Iran's stated position is that Israel should be wipped off the face of the earth.
You ought to make yourself more familiar with Iran's stated positions.
Maybe a picture will help...
A world without Zionism

Also international issues such as these are often considered "international" because they include or relate to more than a couple nations. Claiming Iran's nuclear threat only effects Israel is extremely narrow sighted. If Iran became a nuclear power she would alter the climate and balance of power in her region and ultimately the entire world.
 
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cnredd said:
Keep believing that...

I will. Iran doesn't even have the missile technology to reach any U.S. territory. It's Israel's problem not ours.
 

PhatSlammer

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My question to you is why cant Iran pursue nuclear tech. You are all under the assumption that Iran is activly researching nuclear weaponry. When in fact they are researching uranium enrichment and utilazation for energy. Is that a step in nuclear weapons, yes, but close to 10-15 years from actual weaponry. After all almost half of the United States is run the the clean and cheap nuclear power industry. It gives us the ability to have cheat electricity which lets us advance in the modern world. Nuclear tech. is the mile stone in national advancement. So why when America is known for it's harsh and negative opinion over 3rd world countries not letting a country advance.

Also, an Islamic Fatwa (or religous law, which is taken EXTREMELY seriously, Im a Muslim) was issued last year forbidding the use of weapons of mass destruction in warfare, the reason being it creates innocent deaths, which are STRICTLY forbidden in Islamic Law no matter who they are. So the idea that Iran is going to create a nuclear weapon for use maliciously is quite wrong, we are not talking about a North Korea and a Kim Jong Ill here, who vows to use nuclear force against the US.

Finally, some of you talked about President Ahmadinjad and his comments about how Israel should be "wiped off the map", if you actually read or listened to the speach (which I doubt any of you did) then you would have seen that he was talking about the idea of Israel, how it was forcefully placed in neutral terrority where Jews, Muslims and Christians have lived peacefully since the crusades, until Israel was formed. He reiterated that statement in another speach saying that land from Germany and Austria should be used to form a "Jewish Homeland", since it was created in response to the Holocaust. He said if that happened Iran would fully support and reconize the state. He said that a peaceful and diplomatic solution must be found and that Iran was willing to work for that peace, but he thought it unfair that Israel must be invading and oppressing other people while commiting genocide for a land that was created in response to an oppression and genocide committed against them.

All this "conflict" is, is the United States and the EU trying to gain back political power from what the US lost in its crusade in the Middle East which was based for political gain and for the EU's lost in dominance over Europe and proto-Europe. One thing they dont relize though is that Iran will not back down, because they have done nothing wrong, they have had UN inspectors and video camaras in the facilities for almost 40 years and have never violated international law. However, they relize the UN is basically the US and are refusing to detour their national progresses and they refuse to be dominated and oppressed economic and politically any longer. They are surrounded on two sides by nations invaded by the US (who called them an evil country in 2002) and by three nuclear powers (Russia, Pakistan and Israel) Israel being a fanatic country who is the only contry to openly threated other nations with nuclear force in the last 5 years.
 

Billo_Really

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This is not news. We all saw it coming.
 
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