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Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day

RaleBulgarian

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That’s right. The much revered Des Moines Register of the deep red state of Iowa places Harris ahead of Traitor Trump.
  • Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
  • A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
  • The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
  • Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”
www.desmoinesregister.com

A sign of what we’ll see on Tuesday?
 

Trump's outreach to women isn't working.

 
Although Iowa is solidly republican, Iowans are a different "nation" from the Deep South and Appalachia, who are still living in the cultural shadow of the Civil War. They are pragmatists and a decent portion are genuine Christians, as opposed to the fake ones that proliferate in other regions. So maybe they are tired of the nonsense.

From the book "American Nations":

 
Something is in the wind. I personally know of a couple of people who broke away from Trump at the last minute to vote for Harris. In addition my mother-in-law used to be for Trump and now isn't. Most days she goes to play games at what is basically an old folks facility. Most are women. She says that all of the old folks have turned against Trump in mass. She said a few had broken away before but now it's become an avalanche and they are becoming more and more outspoken against him.
I live in a small town in Indiana that is heavily Republican. All of a sudden I'm seeing more and more Harris signs. There used to be a lot more Trump signs but now its about even.
 
I want to believe, but it looks like an outlier with another, more recent, poll showing a 9 point lead for Trump. The lagging enthusiasm there also isn't a good sign.
 
That is very surprising, and a relief. Kamala Harris is unlikely to win Iowa, but if the poll is anywhere close to accurate then Kamala Harris should win Wisconsin and Michigan by a decent margin.

I'd warn against over-emphasizing a single poll...but if there is any single poll that changes my perception of the race, it's Ann Selzer's Iowa poll. She is one of the best pollsters and she's unafraid to go against the consensus.
 
As an aside, des moines is a very integrated city compared to the other midwest hyper segregated cities. It's an interesting state
 

One can only hope. If a red state flips, that would be an incredible and welcome surprise.
 
That’s my feeling as well. Though it’s a direct parallel to 2016 when her last Iowa poll showed Trump winning Iowa against all conventional wisdom at the time. It would be sweet justice if was a harbinger of the reverse in 2024.
 
exoplanet said:
I want to believe, but it looks like an outlier with another, more recent, poll showing a 9 point lead for Trump. The lagging enthusiasm there also isn't a good sign.
Click to expand...
That doesn’t mean anything, in my opinion. I live here. Democrats in Iowa have been living under Republican rule for so long that it’s difficult for us to become extremely enthusiastic over any hope of a Democrat prevailing. We’ve seen this movie before. Besides, if you take the totals for extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, and mildly enthusiastic, it’s Harris at 92% and Trump at 91%.

Trump supporters around here wear their allegiance to Trump openly and loudly. I wouldn’t have expected “enthusiasm” for Harris to be anywhere near even.

If this poll were found to be anywhere near accurate as to what we might see come Tuesday in Iowa, then Trump is in huge trouble nationally.
 
From your mouth to God’s ears
 
exoplanet said:
I want to believe, but it looks like an outlier with another, more recent, poll showing a 9 point lead for Trump. The lagging enthusiasm there also isn't a good sign.
Click to expand...
The Des Moines Register poll was conducted between 10/28 and 10/31.

What more recent poll showing Traitor Trump with a 9 point lead in Iowa are you referring to?

Post link.
 
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