Imminent Attack! Preparations Are Underway in Donbass.

[Tangmo]

Looking at the Monday, December 17, 2018 analysis of the Institute for the Study of War this is about as far as any rational person can go at this point. There's nothing in the analysis to indicate any pending attack by anyone...



Russia's Pressure Points on Ukraine
By the ISW Russia Team

Key Takeaway: Russia is expanding the variety of means it uses to threaten Ukraine along multiple borders - from the Sea of Azov and Donbas to Western Ukraine. The Kremlin retains the capability and intent to escalate these threats as necessary in order to challenge the Government of Ukraine. The Kremlin is attempting to inflame religious and social tensions to polarize Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s 2019 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections. Russia will continue to use all means necessary to advance its long-term objective to reassert its sphere of influence over Ukraine.



Russia continues to bolster its military capabilities on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, including air, naval and anti-access area-denial assets [A2/AD], in order to create a credible deterrent against a potential response by NATO.


Russia continues to threaten military escalation and maintain a de-facto blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov. Russia’s likely long-term objective is to gain total control over the Sea of Azov and the port city of Mariupol. The blockade fosters economic grievances among Ukrainians in Berdyansk and Mariupol and is intended to further weaken the fragile Government of Ukraine.


Russia is fueling tensions over the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s recent acquisition of autonomy from Moscow to polarize Ukraine. Ukrainian officials warned that the Russian Security Services (FSB) are organizing violent demonstrations in Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Mykolayiv Oblasts against the autocephalous status of the Ukrainian Eastern Orthodox Church. Russia however failed in its attempts to disrupt a significant meeting to recognize the Ukrainian Eastern Orthodox Church on December 15. The threat nonetheless remains a pressure point for future relations between Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey.


Russia is preparing its separatist proxies for a potential escalation in Donbas in Eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin is flooding the information space with false warnings that indicate its intentions to spread fear about an upcoming attack. The Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that Ukraine and the West are planning imminent attacks in Donbas. Russian-backed separatists alleged that Ukraine and its allies plan to conduct a chemical weapons attack near separatist-held Eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Gen. Viktor Muzhenko confirmed a buildup of Russian T-62s along the Russian-Ukrainian Border since October 2018.


Russia is subverting the upcoming elections in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) accused Russia of using “troll factories” to interfere in the 2019 Ukrainian Presidential and Parliamentary Elections.


Russia is intensifying its information campaign in Southern Ukraine in order to sow distrust and weaken the legitimacy of the Government of Ukraine. Russian media claimed that Ukraine plans to attack Kherson Oblast near Crimea in Southern Ukraine on December 24 - 25.


Russia is targeting the borders of Western Ukraine. Russia continues to use subversive tools to inflame ethnic tensions and separatist sentiments in Zakharpatiya Oblast in order to drive a wedge between Ukraine and its neighbors in Poland and Hungary. Russia hackers attacked the computer systems of more than one hundred military and state institutions in Western Ukraine on December 14, according to the SBU.

ISW Blog: Russia's Pressure Points on Ukraine


Russia is really effective hacking countries of a lesser technology.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Not malarkey

Without Russian oil and gas the prices for both will go sky high, so countries will buy Russian oil and gas outside Swift. Same with Titanium, alternatives to Swift will be made quickly in order to for payments to be made. It already is being done by the EU for trade with Iran

Sheer hyperbole. Moscow would have a very difficult time moving investment funds, money transfers, and most digital transaction operations, etc.

Sanctions On SWIFT Could Hit Russia Where It Hurts Most

However, Moscow already has an alternative. Sorta, kinda.....

Russia welcomes foreign banks to join its money transfer alternative to SWIFT

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Sheer hyperbole. Moscow would have a very difficult time moving investment funds, money transfers, and most digital transaction operations, etc.

Sanctions On SWIFT Could Hit Russia Where It Hurts Most

However, Moscow already has an alternative. Sorta, kinda.....

Russia welcomes foreign banks to join its money transfer alternative to SWIFT

Yes Russia and its trade partners woulf have difficulty in moving money around but a few million barrels of oil a day would need to be paid for and a system will be created to do so.

 

[Tangmo]

CCP Boyz in Beijing have a Swift alternative too which alternates between nickle and dime transactions only. Russia has a system for its banks only which is the same as the hamster sprinting on his wheel. Swift in Belgium meanwhile does $5 Trillion in transactions daily.

EU is setting up a function specific system to do deals with Iran because Swift says it doesn't participate in political sanctions. Still however Iran was shut out of Swift until it made the nuclear deal. Iran is delighted to be back in Swift while Russian and Chinese alternative systems compete for pennies from heaven. Moscow and Beijing know nobody does a serious business in Rubles or RMB anyway. Because each currency is the local monopoly money everybody uses Swift and $USD.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

CCP Boyz in Beijing have a Swift alternative too which alternates between nickle and dime transactions only. Russia has a system for its banks only which is the same as the hamster sprinting on his wheel. Swift in Belgium meanwhile does $5 Trillion in transactions daily.

EU is setting up a function specific system to do deals with Iran because Swift says it doesn't participate in political sanctions. Still however Iran was shut out of Swift until it made the nuclear deal. Iran is delighted to be back in Swift while Russian and Chinese alternative systems compete for pennies from heaven. Moscow and Beijing know nobody does a serious business in Rubles or RMB anyway. Because each currency is the local monopoly money everybody uses Swift and $USD.

At the moment you are right

But the prospects of paying $90 per barrel of oil or paying $50 per barrel of oil would provide incentive for an alternative to Swift and the USD. The EU would like an alternative, the need to pay for Russian oil and gas could cause it to grow

 

[Westphalian]

Lol. First the Kremlin said on Dec. 14. That came and went. What sort of lousy intel does the Kremlin have?

Now you say Dec. 25. Martial Law ends on the 23rd. Seems like pretty crappy intel once again.

What's disturbing is that some folks here in this thread actually give Kremlin disinformation some credence.

But then again, they are Kremlin-friendly to begin with.

Says a man who widely quotes Ukrainian sources such as Unian, and US sources such as CNN!

Truth is rarely to be found in Kiev or Washington.

 

[Tangmo]

At the moment you are right

But the prospects of paying $90 per barrel of oil or paying $50 per barrel of oil would provide incentive for an alternative to Swift and the USD. The EU would like an alternative, the need to pay for Russian oil and gas could cause it to grow

I'm talking about the turkey systems of Russia and China as alternatives to Swift while you're standing there holding the wishbone.

Russian energy exports to EU countries snag Russia $1 Billion a Day. After Putin violated Ukraine EU went to other energy resources in North America, South America, Africa. There's no problem to go back to the good ol' dayze to put cash on the barrel head. $USD of course. Russia meanwhile would forfeit a billion bucks a day. That's $3 billion yesterday, today, tomorrow. Seven billion on this day of next week. Methinks that would be a Thursday. Then there's 30 dayze from now etc. It all adds up and pretty fast for Russia where Putin just reduced pension payments cause they're broke over there.

 

[Tangmo]

Exactly correct .


The US will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

When the US and Russia fight we'll know about it and so will the world know. Until then there is nothing.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Claims of Ukraine "preparing offensive" in Donbas deflect attention from Russia's actions - Volker

U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker.

U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine negotiations Kurt Volker says the claims by Russia-backed militants of Ukraine allegedly staging provocations and preparing an offensive in Donbas are aimed at deflecting attention from Russia's actions. "I think these assertions are made by pro-Russian entities in order to deflect attention away from what Russia's doing," he told a briefing in Brussels, commenting on Russian proxies' claims. Volker says that Russia has claimed command and control over the Kerch Strait following the claim to the annexation of Crimea. Russia restricted free navigation to the ports in the Sea of Azov, and attacked Ukrainian navy vessels, he recalled. He noted that this was a new escalation by Russia of its conflict with Ukraine, which was done openly, without hiding behinds proxy forces. The ambassador also noted the fact that Ukrainian sailors showed "tremendous restraint" and did not return fire after being fired upon. "These assertions maybe ways of creating some cover for possible Russian attacks, which I hope don't occur, but I have to say it's possible," said Volker.

The US became so alarmed by Russian armored movements close to Ukraine's borders that on December 6, a USAF Open Skies flight transpired over Ukraine with military attache's from 15 nations on board so they could see for themselves the repositioned Russian forces close (18km) to Ukraine's border. The Russian military has direct control over 420km of Ukraine's border in the east of the country.

 

[Fledermaus]

Or, the Donbass didn't recognize the results of the USA/CIA/NED inspired Coup d'etat and that is why they are separatists, just like Crimea.
/

Donbass doesn't have to recognize the UKRAINIAN rebellion. It is still UKRAINIAN territory.

Just like Crimea.

 

[Fledermaus]

Says a man who widely quotes Ukrainian sources such as Unian, and US sources such as CNN!

Truth is rarely to be found in Kiev or Washington.

Funny coming from an RT.com spokeshole.

 

[Fledermaus]

This is about Kiev's neo nazi infiltrated army attacking the Ukrainian separatists in the Mariupol region. It's very specific intel. It's expected to start on about Dec 25.

You keep playing the "neo nazi" card....



Deep in the forests of Slovakia, former Russian Spetsnaz commandos trained young men from a right-wing paramilitary group called the Slovak Conscripts. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, some of these freshly-minted paramilitaries went to fight with Russian forces in eastern Ukraine while others stayed at home to agitate against NATO as a “terrorist organization.”

On the streets of the French city Marseille, Russian soccer hooligans sporting tattoos with the initials of Russia’s military intelligence service, GRU, brutally attacked English soccer fans in June 2016, sending dozens of bloodied fans to the hospital. Alexander Shprygin, an ultranationalist agitator and the head of the All-Russian Union of Supporters (a soccer fan club that he claims was established at the behest of the Russian Federal Security Service, or FSB), was arrested during the melee and deported from France.

In Budapest’s Fiumei Road Cemetery in May 2017, a Russian motorcycle gang carrying giant red flags displaying the Soviet hammer and sickle rode up to a World War II memorial. Somewhat incongruously, the tattooed bikers, accompanied by pinstriped Russian Embassy diplomats, disembarked from their motorcycles to lay red carnations in front of the memorial and then posted a video clip of it online.

It seems almost too strange to be true: fight clubs, neo-Nazi soccer hooligans, and motorcycle gangs serving as conduits for the Kremlin’s influence operations in Western countries. It sounds more like an episode of The Americans with a dash of Mad Max and Fight Club mixed in. Yet this is exactly what is happening across Europe and North America as Russia’s intelligence services co-opt fringe radicals and angry young men to try to undermine Western democracies from within. And not just in the virtual world, but in real life.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/08/russia-is-co-opting-angry-young-men/568741/

FIFA Fines Russia for neo-Nazi Tribute at World Cup Game
https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/...-neo-nazi-tribute-at-world-cup-game-1.6224216

I think all the various Nazis and nationalists in America right now are sort of vying for the affection of Russia, and I think they believe there’s a big pot of money there, and there might very well be, but I don’t think we’ve so far seen so much evidence of actual monetary aid. They’ve certainly helped eastern European parties. I know the Hungarian Jobbik party is pretty closely linked to Russians. Russia is the beacon of white nationalism in the world now.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2...d-everything-you-love-will-burn-q-and-a-nazis

Facebook Let A Notorious Russian Neo-Nazi Profit Off Its Platform For Years
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/facebook-nazi-white-rex-nikitin_us_5b4f949ee4b0de86f4894b80

 

[DaveFagan]

Donbass doesn't have to recognize the UKRAINIAN rebellion. It is still UKRAINIAN territory.

Just like Crimea.

Repeat from "Pete and repeat." Propaganda by any other name like the proverbial rose.
/

 

[Fledermaus]

Repeat from "Pete and repeat." Propaganda by any other name like the proverbial rose.
/

You have no logical response nor rebuttal..
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Do you?

 

[DaveFagan]

You have no logical response nor rebuttal..
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Do you?

Crimean election! Donbass and Lugansk voted to be annexed by Russia. Russia didn't do it. Check with Pete to find out what you are supposed to Repeat. Your new words should be arriving soon, don't ya' know? No! You don't know. You are just wee puckin' echo box.
/

 

[Rogue Valley]

Crimean election! Donbass and Lugansk voted to be annexed by Russia. Russia didn't do it. Check with Pete to find out what you are supposed to Repeat. Your new words should be arriving soon, don't ya' know? No! You don't know. You are just wee puckin' echo box.

Referendums on occupied territory are not recognized as valid and also constitute a Geneva Accords violation.

 

[DaveFagan]

Referendums on occupied territory are not recognized as valid and also constitute a Geneva Accords violation.

Sounds like Syria, Libya, Iraq, even Germany. We've occupied Germany since 1945. And Italy. And Spain. And Japan. Maybe you can get Pete to get you to Repeat, or not? It's coming to me. Almost. Ukraine good. Russia bad. Use different words to repeat.
/

 

[Rogue Valley]

Sounds like Syria, Libya, Iraq, even Germany. We've occupied Germany since 1945.

Odd. The German government has never complained. You must mean East Germany and East Berlin where your friends the Russians built that wall monstrosity.....

 

[DaveFagan]

Odd. The German government has never complained. You must mean East Germany and East Berlin where your friends the Russians built that wall monstrosity.....

Walls? I didn't know Trump was in Germany. Yes Germany has been continuously occupied by the USA since 1945. Perhaps you didn't notice. Check with Pete and then repeat.
/

 

[Fledermaus]

Crimean election! Donbass and Lugansk voted to be annexed by Russia. Russia didn't do it. Check with Pete to find out what you are supposed to Repeat. Your new words should be arriving soon, don't ya' know? No! You don't know. You are just wee puckin' echo box.
/

Crimean election was illegal and under Russian influence.

Donbass and Lugansk illegally voted to be annexed by Russia.

Please try again.

 

[Fledermaus]

Walls? I didn't know Trump was in Germany. Yes Germany has been continuously occupied by the USA since 1945. Perhaps you didn't notice. Check with Pete and then repeat.
/

Big difference.... Trumps wall is to keep illegal immigration to a minimum.

The wall in Berlin was to force the East Germans to remain in a decayed and dying East Germany...

Oh, BTW - Occupation officially ended 1955.... After which we had West Germany (free) and East Germany (Still under USSR thumb)

 

[DaveFagan]

Crimean election was illegal and under Russian influence.

Donbass and Lugansk illegally voted to be annexed by Russia.

Please try again.

US in Iraq illegally.
US in Ukraine illegally.
US in Libya illegally.
US in Syria illegally.
Ask Pete to give you a new stick.
/

 

[DaveFagan]

Big difference.... Trumps wall is to keep illegal immigration to a minimum.

The wall in Berlin was to force the East Germans to remain in a decayed and dying East Germany...

Oh, BTW - Occupation officially ended 1955.... After which we had West Germany (free) and East Germany (Still under USSR thumb)

The USA has occupied Germany CONTINUOUSLY since 1945. Check with Pete, don't repeat.
/

 

[Fledermaus]

The USA has occupied Germany CONTINUOUSLY since 1945. Check with Pete, don't repeat.
/

The OCCUPATION was officially over 1955... Crack a real history book.

And after 1955... A free West Germany. And a totalitarian East Germany until the Wall fell.

 

[Fledermaus]

US in Iraq illegally.
US in Ukraine illegally.
US in Libya illegally.
US in Syria illegally.
Ask Pete to give you a new stick.
/

Since when were we "illegally" in UKRAINE?

And Syria and Libya are not UKRAINE...

Please try again.