I believe the House made the right decision. Congressmen took the days after the House rejected the legislation to consider the consequences of doing nothing and were exposed to growing indications of a rapidly deteriorating U.S. economy. IMO, a recession is already baked in the proverbial cake. Adoption and enactment of the legislation almost certainly will not change this.
Furthermore, the impact of the legislation will take time to help resolve the difficulties confronting the nation's financial system. Even with the Treasury Department's authority to purchase up to $700 billion in troubled assets that should begin to ease the intensifying credit crisis, the U.S. is likely to experience a period of de-leveraging and recession.
Select data from the time the Resolution Trust Corporation was created in 1989 follows:
Based on the historic experience concerning the milder 1989-94 housing bust and the experience of the 1989-95 Resolution Trust Corporation, several points are likely reasonable:
• The stock market might yet reach new lows.
• Stock prices are likely to recover more quickly than home values.
• No rapid recovery in home valuations is likely.
• Below average economic growth is likely to persist for at least the next few years.
• A recession remains a possibility. Recent economic data suggests that a recession is imminent, if not already in its early stages of unfolding.
In terms of possible losses to the taxpayers, the RTC lost approximately $0.30 for every dollar of assets it assumed. As a result, one should not expect that the legislation will lead to the taxpayers losing $700 billion. Losses will probably come to much more manageable levels ($100 billion to $300 billion).
Finally, much more difficult work will lie ahead even after the threat of systemic financial system failure is averted. A thoughtful and comprehensive examination of regulation and risk management will lie ahead. Best practices adopted following past banking crises in other countries and understanding of the factors that lead to asset bubbles will be necessary for an informed and effective policy response.
With today's decision by the House of Representatives, at least the process toward resolving the crisis can be started.