Hillary Adviser: Bush-Portman Ticket Could Doom Dems in 2016.....

[sangha]

Umm, that's in response to your last post.

Basically, it appears we don't agree about Clinton running, and if she runs, Clinton winning.

But you have your reasons for this position, the same that I have my reasons for my position, and I respect that.

My opinion is based on the fact that Clinton is extremely popular.

Political Figures: Hillary Clinton

 

[countryboy]

If there were lots of jobs outside of government, okay - but there's not! That means more on unemployment and a lowered standard of living, and we don't have the money we need to support that! I'm already wondering what's going to happen if thousands of illegals are allowed to compete for jobs that American citizens are currently doing. It seems that either more jobs are going to have to be created, or wages for everyone are going to drop simply because of increased competition. Can it be otherwise?

Didn't you hear? Now that millions of illegal aliens will now be legal, they'll be able to demand higher wages, which will drive up wages for everyone. :roll: In other news, it will rain peanut M&Ms next week, and there will be world peace.

 

[polgara]

Didn't you hear? Now that millions of illegal aliens will now be legal, they'll be able to demand higher wages, which will drive up wages for everyone. :roll: In other news, it will rain peanut M&Ms next week, and there will be world peace.

Greetings, countryboy. :2wave:

Since business always enjoys paying higher wages, I'm certain they will be successful. Do you know what day the peanut M&Ms will rain down - I'll make a point to be outdoors cause I like 'em! Maybe ISIS will find that they like them, too, and will decide maybe we aren't all that bad after all - peace is assured! :lamo:

 

[eohrnberger]

My opinion is based on the fact that Clinton is extremely popular.

Political Figures: Hillary Clinton

Casting a slightly wider net as to polls and opinions, confirms the 40% range, but also points out a range of 40% opposing.

Hillary Clinton's Ratings Slide

Hillary Clinton’s Approval Numbers Return to Earth — WSJ/NBC Poll - Washington Wire - WSJ (Google Link)

And this from July 2014.

A new poll of the potential 2016 presidential field from Quinnipiac, conducted at the end of June, found support for Clinton among Democratic primary voters at 58 percent. That's an 11-point drop from an ABC News/Washington Post poll of the potential Democratic field—conducted in late May, before Hard Choices was released—that found 69 percent supported Clinton over any other possible Democrats

Hillary Clinton's Approval Rating Amongst Democrats Drops - Matt Vespa

According to the survey, 43% of registered voters have a positive view of the former secretary of state and first lady, while 41% have a negative opinion.

That marks a considerable decline from her February 2009 numbers, as she began her four-year stint as secretary of state. Then she recorded 59% positive to 22% negative.

The Wall Street Journal's Patrick O'Connor says this trend is a result of Mrs Clinton's being increasingly seen through the lens of partisan politics, as she mulls a bid for the presidency in 2016.

"The more Hillary Clinton looks like a candidate, the less invincible she appears," he writes.

A closer look at the numbers indicates that the bulk of Mrs Clinton's decline can be attributed to Republicans whose views of her have dimmed. Her disapproval rating among conservatives has jumped from 52% in 2009 to 70% today.

BBC News - Hillary Clinton's approval bubble has popped

Hillary Clinton's approval rating drops to 43 percent | Red Alert Politics

Given all this, I'm not sure I'd characterize it as her being 'extremely popular'. Seems she's rather divisive.

 

[Perotista]

One thing you have to keep in mind about independants is that they are not all ideological moderates. some lean to the left...some to the right. I am an independent with mainstream conservative philosophy. I fall in about where the conservative base of the GOP falls in. I am not a party hack. I vote for mainstream conservative candidates if any are running. I am not part of the go along to get along coalition. That's why I am not a republican. I am not into "just winning one for the party". I expect conservative ideology to be represented. If not. The republican establishment politicians have forgotten that.

True, I could have included the leans and the above would look like this:

Year…Dem…Rep…Ind…Ind.Lean.Dem….Ind.Lean.Rep…..True.Ind

2005…34……33……30………..14…………………....8…………………8
2010…32……33…..34………..12……………………15…………………7
2011…30……27…..42………..18……………………15…………………9
2012…35……30…..33………..16……………………12…………………5
2013…30……24….44………..14…………………..18………………..13
2014…28……28….41………..13…………………..19………………….9…..As of November 9, 2014

History has shown those who affiliate with either party vote for their candidates 90% of the time. Independent leans are down between 70-75% of the time. If you include the leans the Democrats would be at 41% and the Republicans at 47%. The actual nationwide vote earlier this month for all the 435 congressional districts was Republicans 52.3% to Democrats 44.8%.

 

[Manc Skipper]

My reading is that Bush is her strongest opposition, but not strong enough to beat her. Maybe the Hillary camp are seeking to confirm her victory by making fearful noises about Bush, to ensure that he'll fail in the primaries, and she'll face a hardline no-hoper tea party candidate.

 

[sangha]

Casting a slightly wider net as to polls and opinions, confirms the 40% range, but also points out a range of 40% opposing.

Hillary Clinton’s Approval Numbers Return to Earth — WSJ/NBC Poll - Washington Wire - WSJ (Google Link)

And this from July 2014.

Hillary Clinton's Approval Rating Amongst Democrats Drops - Matt Vespa

BBC News - Hillary Clinton's approval bubble has popped

Hillary Clinton's approval rating drops to 43 percent | Red Alert Politics

Given all this, I'm not sure I'd characterize it as her being 'extremely popular'. Seems she's rather divisive.

Nope. Her ratings have gone up and down but ocer the long term her approval is high. You're cherry picking polls

 

[vesper]

Here’s a Republican pairing that should haunt Democrats’ dreams for the next two years: Jeb Bush and Rob Portman. That, at least, is what Harold Ickes warned Friday. What could derail the Democratic Party in 2014? A combined Jeb Bush-Rob Portman ticket.

A Bush-Portman ticket could doom Democrats in Bush’s native Florida and in Portman’s Ohio, Ickes said, and Bush’s Hispanic support would make Colorado a difficult lift as well.....snip~

Hillary Adviser: Bush-Portman Ticket Could Doom Dems in 2016 - The Daily Beast

Sounds like Ickes would prefer to run Hillary against Bush and Portman. What do you think?

Bush does have the ability to pull Latino voters. I don't even see Portman being a VP. Moreover Kasich can pull more of Ohio by himself.

I think you are 100% correct in your assessment of the situation. A Bush/Portman ticket would thwart the base of the Republican party from even showing up to vote. In fact if the Republican elites were to push for such a ticket and it became reality, the faction between the base and the Republican bluebloods would become so severe that you may see a breaking away and a third party formed.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

Here’s a Republican pairing that should haunt Democrats’ dreams for the next two years: Jeb Bush and Rob Portman. That, at least, is what Harold Ickes warned Friday. What could derail the Democratic Party in 2014? A combined Jeb Bush-Rob Portman ticket.

A Bush-Portman ticket could doom Democrats in Bush’s native Florida and in Portman’s Ohio, Ickes said, and Bush’s Hispanic support would make Colorado a difficult lift as well.....snip~

Hillary Adviser: Bush-Portman Ticket Could Doom Dems in 2016 - The Daily Beast

Sounds like Ickes would prefer to run Hillary against Bush and Portman. What do you think?

Bush does have the ability to pull Latino voters. I don't even see Portman being a VP. Moreover Kasich can pull more of Ohio by himself.

Thanks to the Latino community's realization of how the GOP is opposed to any really substantial immigration reform, Bush won't be able to pull enough Latinos to make a difference.

The only way a Bush/Portman ticket would work is if Portman's first name was Natalie...especially since she's even more of a leftie than I am....

 

[MMC]

Thanks to the Latino community's realization of how the GOP is opposed to any really substantial immigration reform, Bush won't be able to pull enough Latinos to make a difference.

The only way a Bush/Portman ticket would work is if Portman's first name was Natalie...especially since she's even more of a leftie than I am....

Well that's not true Glen.....Bush helped Gardener in Colorado with the Latino Vote. Which that is why they are mentioning That swing state.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

Well that's not true Glen.....Bush helped Gardener in Colorado with the Latino Vote. Which that is why they are mentioning That swing state.

What made the difference wasn't the Latino vote...but the fact that it was a midterm, and every two-term president since Eisenhower has had to deal with a opposition party-led Congress (House and Senate) after the midterms in the sixth year of their eight-year presidencies.

 

[MMC]

What made the difference wasn't the Latino vote...but the fact that it was a midterm, and every two-term president since Eisenhower has had to deal with a opposition party-led Congress (House and Senate) after the midterms in the sixth year of their eight-year presidencies.

That and 10 - 12 point difference in percentage numbers. That's with Latinos.....Pero has posted up the numbers a few times over several threads.

Yeah the usual excuse Glen.....except for a couple of facts. The numbers won by.....and all the Historical that took place in this one.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

That and 10 - 12 point difference in percentage numbers. That's with Latinos.....Pero has posted up the numbers a few times over several threads.

Yeah the usual excuse Glen.....except for a couple of facts. The numbers won by.....and all the Historical that took place in this one.

And the midterm difference applies to Latinos, too. The ones who are opposed to the administration in a sixth-year midterm are more likely to vote, and those not opposed are less likely to vote. The fact that usually-conservative older voters are significantly more likely than usually-liberal younger voters to vote in a midterm election only exaggerated the six-year midterm effect.

But go ahead and support Bush in 2016 - please, be my guest! Because then you're going to see just how strongly the Latino community will support the Dems...because they will remember who was for immigration reform...and who opposed it.

 

[Declan]

I agree, but polls do give us something to talk about. Name recognition is big in early polling. On the Democratic side, Jim Webb announcing he has formed an exploratory committee to run for president has intrigued me. He was secretary of the navy under Reagan, Vietnam War Vet and served as senator from Virginia. I doubt Webb will go anyplace, but his announcement is interesting. Perhaps positioning himself as a possible VP candidate.

So far on the Republican side is just a bunch of question marks.

It will be good for the GOP if Webb and Warner both seek the nomination. Swing voters within the demo ranks who align with one are less likely to be okay with the other I suspect. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out even though whoever wins will be undoubtedly another sucky disappointment for America.

 

[Perotista]

It will be good for the GOP if Webb and Warner both seek the nomination. Swing voters within the demo ranks who align with one are less likely to be okay with the other I suspect. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out even though whoever wins will be undoubtedly another sucky disappointment for America.

That's politics. There are times I get so tired of voting for the lesser of two evils or the least worst candidate, I don't. I voted for Gary Johnson last presidential election. A vote against the big two.

 

[MMC]

And the midterm difference applies to Latinos, too. The ones who are opposed to the administration in a sixth-year midterm are more likely to vote, and those not opposed are less likely to vote. The fact that usually-conservative older voters are significantly more likely than usually-liberal younger voters to vote in a midterm election only exaggerated the six-year midterm effect.

But go ahead and support Bush in 2016 - please, be my guest! Because then you're going to see just how strongly the Latino community will support the Dems...because they will remember who was for immigration reform...and who opposed it.

Glen, the Repus took 66 out of 99 State Legislatures. They have 33 States with Governors. The even won New Mexico's House for the First time since 1950. They Have the youngest Woman Politician to win an Election in NY. The First Woman Senator in Iowa. They have the First Black Conservative Female to win a seat in Congress and the First Black Southern Senator. They also have Woman Governors.

Also the Right actually has sent some people that have Military experience in their resume to both the House and the Senate.

There is no downplaying it from the left. The usual Mid-Term argument.....while part of all that took place. Just doesn't pan out with how and what took place.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

Glen, the Repus took 66 out of 99 State Legislatures. They have 33 States with Governors. The even won New Mexico's House for the First time since 1950. They Have the youngest Woman Politician to win an Election in NY. The First Woman Senator in Iowa. They have the First Black Conservative Female to win a seat in Congress and the First Black Southern Senator. They also have Woman Governors.

Also the Right actually has sent some people that have Military experience in their resume to both the House and the Senate.

There is no downplaying it from the left. The usual Mid-Term argument.....while part of all that took place. Just doesn't pan out with how and what took place.

And how will you explain away what's going to happen in 2016?

 

[eohrnberger]

Nope. Her ratings have gone up and down but ocer the long term her approval is high. You're cherry picking polls

Meh. That may be your perception, but it certainly wasn't the intent. Guess we'll see how the future unfolds on this.

 

[polgara]

Glen, the Repus took 66 out of 99 State Legislatures. They have 33 States with Governors. The even won New Mexico's House for the First time since 1950. They Have the youngest Woman Politician to win an Election in NY. The First Woman Senator in Iowa. They have the First Black Conservative Female to win a seat in Congress and the First Black Southern Senator. They also have Woman Governors.

Also the Right actually has sent some people that have Military experience in their resume to both the House and the Senate.

There is no downplaying it from the left. The usual Mid-Term argument.....while part of all that took place. Just doesn't pan out with how and what took place.

Wow, I didn't realize all the State legislatures that changed hands, in addition to everything else! I hope things get done now that benefit all the people instead of just a particular Party! :thumbs:

 

[MMC]

And how will you explain away what's going to happen in 2016?

I figure the Country now knows that, after these next two years of BO and the Demos failures.....rather than be divided and blatantly lied to. They will complete and seal the deal with Bringing in the Repub for the Presidency. A government unified, not divided.

The only question will be.....if it is a Neo Con, Staunch Conservative, or Moderate.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

I figure the Country now knows that, after these next two years of BO and the Demos failures.....rather than be divided and blatantly lied to. They will complete and seal the deal with Bringing in the Repub for the Presidency. A government unified, not divided.

The only question will be.....if it is a Neo Con, Staunch Conservative, or Moderate.

Y'know, I'm really looking forward to 2016. And what's going to happen? Hillary takes the presidency, and we get the Senate back thanks to her long political coattails...just like we've been saying all along. And then the conservative pundits will flail about (several of whom will claim that it was all due to voter fraud), make proclamations that the GOP needs to do more to reach out to minorities and to the youth...

...and then the GOP politicians will start their "I'm-more-conservative-than-the-other-guy" circular firing squad game again.

If the GOP ever learns to become truly moderate - meaning deeds, not words - then they'll stand a chance at winning the presidency. But not before.

 

[MMC]

Y'know, I'm really looking forward to 2016. And what's going to happen? Hillary takes the presidency, and we get the Senate back thanks to her long political coattails...just like we've been saying all along. And then the conservative pundits will flail about (several of whom will claim that it was all due to voter fraud), make proclamations that the GOP needs to do more to reach out to minorities and to the youth...

...and then the GOP politicians will start their "I'm-more-conservative-than-the-other-guy" circular firing squad game again.

If the GOP ever learns to become truly moderate - meaning deeds, not words - then they'll stand a chance at winning the presidency. But not before.

Hillary wont be able to take on Governors and come out looking good. Moreover the left is looking to someone new. Which you know they want Warren to run against her.

Also if you look in the beginning of this thread. You will see.....I am not for Bush and Portman either.

 

[MAGAnificent]

My reading is that Bush is her strongest opposition, but not strong enough to beat her. Maybe the Hillary camp are seeking to confirm her victory by making fearful noises about Bush, to ensure that he'll fail in the primaries, and she'll face a hardline no-hoper tea party candidate.

That silly notion is based on the false belief that Hillary is a strong candidate to begin with. Hillary's worst nightmare would be someone like Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin winning the GOP primary.

 

[a351]

If another Bush got voted into office, it would prove this country is full of idiots who vote by name only. Bush #1 wasn't good enough for a 2nd term. And no one really thinks Bush #2 was very good.

Let's not kid ourselves here, there's scores of voters who wouldn't vote for Bush, strictly because of his last name. That's not exactly an indicator of intelligence either.

But we're going to vote in another one - named Jeb for that matter?

:lol: Meaning what exactly?

 

[Glen Contrarian]

Hillary wont be able to take on Governors and come out looking good. Moreover the left is looking to someone new. Which you know they want Warren to run against her.

Also if you look in the beginning of this thread. You will see.....I am not for Bush and Portman either.

Hillary won't worry overmuch about the governors...and I'd love to see Warren as president (but that's not likely right now). And who are you for?