Has Putin Lost Already?

[multivita-man]

What is a win for Russia here?

If he can break NATO, he wins. A lot has to happen for that outcome to become a reality, but there's still a non-zero chance that NATO weakens over time.

 

[Juin]

Generalissimo Antonio de Padua María Severino López de Santa Anna y Pérez de Lebrón

His full name! Impressive

 

[multivita-man]

His full name! Impressive

You know what they say...length matters.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

1. The Crimea would/will not be secure
It's hard to imagine the Ukrainians agreeing to a peace where they formally cede any part of its land

2. How do they see how NATO operations work?
NATO forces are not involved

The best case scenario for Russia is a temporary halt to combat operations, and accept a long attritional insurgency campaign from the Ukraine
Eventually the USSR pulled out of Afghanistan, as the USA did (and Vietnam before it) when Soviet/US political will to keep spending $billions, for no political gain, runs out*

So the message for the Ukraine is to keep fighting and cost the Russian economy money it cannot afford.

*Note: This will be accelerated by Western sanctions, especially if/when Europe can end its dependence of Russian fossil fuel.

He's just trying to make himself feel better. It's hard for Putin apologists to come to terms with the fact that Russia got its ass kicked by Ukrainians.

 

[Fledermaus]

His full name! Impressive

His title:

"Hero of the nation, General of Division, Grand Master of the National and Distinguished Order of Guadalupe, Grand Cross of the Royal and Distinguished Spanish Order of Carlos III, and President of the Mexican Republic."

 

[Juin]

His title:

"Hero of the nation, General of Division, Grand Master of the National and Distinguished Order of Guadalupe, Grand Cross of the Royal and Distinguished Spanish Order of Carlos III, and President of the Mexican Republic."

LOL Hard to imagine a hero with such grand titles getting his backside kicked around.

 

[Chagos]

You call that retired? He got his butt whipped all over Texas.

That's a pretty imprecise assessment, seeing how he returned to Mexican presidency numerous times after "Texas".

That eventually he did not retire voluntarily is however factually correct but wasn't due to "Texas".

By way of late revenge he also made US-Americans look like cud-chewing cows by introducing Chiclet to the US.

 

[Rich2018]

Is that supposed to cheer me up? Because it isn't working.

No, but I'd draw a parallel between the Ukraine and Afghanistan
In Afghanistan, the USSR occupied part of the country, and remained a force of occupation for about 10 years, before the costs of occupying Afghanistan and fighting an insurgency war there, broke the Soviet economy and we saw the Soviet Army withdraw, followed by the collapse of the USSR.

What would be the difference to the average Ukranian? NOTHING.

If the Ukraine is annexed, it implies the consent of the Ukrainian people, and their acceptance (however reluctant) of their changed status to Russian citizens

If it's merely occupied, it implies resistance, ranging from widespread civil disobedience to outright insurgency warfare - and the costs to the Russians would remain high
Russia would remain outside the international community and economic sanctions would continue to punish it
Before their invasion, Russia only had an economy the size of Italy - now, and with Europe finding alternate sources of energy, Russia will see its economy shrink significantly to the point that continued occupation of the Ukraine is economically and politically untenable.

 

[Rich2018]

He's just trying to make himself feel better. It's hard for Putin apologists to come to terms with the fact that Russia got its ass kicked by Ukrainians.

He does seem somewhat bitter....and reminiscent of king Canute on the beach issuing orders to the sea.

 

[MaryP]

If it's merely occupied, it implies resistance, ranging from widespread civil disobedience to outright insurgency warfare

Exactly my thought. Continued war. I'm on the average Ukranians' side. I want peace for them. I don't see that happening without a Russian withdrawal. Think of what civil disobedience is costing people in Russia right now. It would be doubly bad in a country the Russians were trying to control.

You are focusing on government's perspective, the leaders who sit counting their rubles surrounded by armed guards. I'm not saying you're wrong. It's just not what I want to see, as I'm sure you don't either.

 

[Cardinal]

Assuming he successfully annexes or merely destroys Ukraine as a functioning nation (this is one of the "successes" of an invasion), it would be a pyrrhic victory. Just to destroy one country, Putin severed Russia from the global economy, united the entirety of the West against Russia, and created two more NATO members. And of course, in the process, he revealed the Russian military to be a bad joke.

Putin would have been far ahead if he had done nothing.

 

[iguanaman]

Even if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine, is it a victory? The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan failed. The invasion of Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in effectiveness and moral of Russia's armed forces. European countries, including far right governed Poland, can't do enough for Ukraine, sending money, weapons, and accepting millions of refugees.

Zelensky will be killed or imprisoned by Russia, making him an inspirational martyr, or he will escape and lead a popular and well supported government in exile.

European countries have seen the folly of relying on Russia for gas and oil. While this may not change for years, the incentive not to be dependent on Russia is obvious and enjoys popular support.

And this is all based on Russia "winning" the war. What is a win for Russia here?

One of the most frightening "wins" for Putin is the kidnapping of 400,000 Ukrainians to Russia. It harkens back to the days of the Soviet Union "Gulags" where they enslaved millions mostly from Soviet Bloc countries. Russia is losing population yearly and these Ukrainian conscripts will take up the slack and do the jobs Russians won't do. I believe Putin is bringing back the Gulags.

The Gulag was a system of Soviet labour camps and accompanying detention and transit camps and prisons. From the 1920s to the mid-1950s it housed political prisoners and criminals of the Soviet Union. At its height, the Gulag imprisoned millions of people.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Gulag#:~:text=The Gulag was a system,Gulag imprisoned millions of people.

Putin will introduce 'Stalin-style gulags' if Ukraine falls, Archbishop warns LBC​

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/present...troduce-stalin-style-gulags-if-ukraine-falls/

 

[iguanaman]

Assuming he successfully annexes or merely destroys Ukraine as a functioning nation (this is one of the "successes" of an invasion), it would be a pyrrhic victory. Just to destroy one country, Putin severed Russia from the global economy, united the entirety of the West against Russia, and created two more NATO members. And of course, in the process, he revealed the Russian military to be a bad joke.

Putin would have been far ahead if he had done nothing.

He will get a million forced laborers for his new Gulags. I think that was a big part of his reason to invade.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/present...troduce-stalin-style-gulags-if-ukraine-falls/

 

[Schrott]

Not necessarily. Russia hasn’t deployed its full conventional military capabilities. The Ukranian military is supplied by NATO and it is losing this war. Russia gets to see, in action, what NATO logistics look like and they’re a hot mess.

Last I heard they defeated the Russian around Kiev and are pushing them back in the South and East.
Were are the superior Russian troops, 50 days and waiting

 

[Quag]

Not necessarily. Russia hasn’t deployed its full conventional military capabilities. The Ukranian military is supplied by NATO and it is losing this war. Russia gets to see, in action, what NATO logistics look like and they’re a hot mess.

Ah yes the spanking they have received is just a ruse to discover the capacities of NATO equipment

How cunning these Putanistas are!! Like turning their flagship into a submarine so that the Ukrainians cant find it as easily

 

[Napoleon]

Ah yes the spanking they have received is just a ruse to discover the capacities of NATO equipment

How cunning these Putanistas are!! Like turning their flagship into a submarine so that the Ukrainians cant find it as easily

It’s best for you to keep in mind that it’s taking the collective effort of 30 nation pouring in the best NATO has to offer to keep Ukraine hanging on by its fingernails against Russia’s half-measures with 40/50 year old equipment.

 

[Quag]

It’s best for you to keep in mind that it’s taking the collective effort of 30 nations to keep Ukraine hanging on by its fingernails against Russia’s half-measures with 40/50 year old equipment.

Russia was considered a superpower, Ukraine never has been considered any sort of military power.
The claim about 40/50 year old equipment is of course false yeah some of it is but not by any means all of it

Putin is removing generals as fast as Ukraine is taking them from him
Russia has already lost but Putin cant afford to admit that so many many more people will die before the Russians realize that themselves remove him.

 

[Rexedgar]

Can you name the last dictator who "retired?"

Idi Amin?

 

[Rexedgar]

The Ukranian military is losing the war because it's facing...

The Russian Military: 600 Ships, 4,000 Aircraft, One Million Men​

The Russian Military: 600 Ships, 4,000 Aircraft, One Million Men

The Soviet military once boasted up to four million men, but the Russian military of 2021 is still one of the world's deadliest.

nationalinterest.org

Russia has retreated from it's first objective, taking the country in one fell swope, and is now trying to take it piecemeal. Ukraine is kicking ass with NATO's help.

599 ships!

 

[Tangmo]

Not necessarily. Russia hasn’t deployed its full conventional military capabilities. The Ukranian military is supplied by NATO and it is losing this war. Russia gets to see, in action, what NATO logistics look like and they’re a hot mess.

The Ukraine rear area is NATO and they're killing your guys.

So thx for your post cause now I know what a delirium looks like and can cause its victims to say and do.

 

[Rich2018]

Exactly my thought. Continued war. I'm on the average Ukranians' side. I want peace for them. I don't see that happening without a Russian withdrawal. Think of what civil disobedience is costing people in Russia right now. It would be doubly bad in a country the Russians were trying to control.

You are focusing on government's perspective, the leaders who sit counting their rubles surrounded by armed guards. I'm not saying you're wrong. It's just not what I want to see, as I'm sure you don't either.

Well it is the governments who will decide the outcome of this war.

Of course, no-one wants to see more Ukrainians killed (or more Russian soldiers for that matter)
However, Russia/Putin MUST lose this war and be seen to lose it. If Putin has anything that looks like victory, I fear he will try his luck again somewhere else. Somewhere like Georgia or Kazakhstan.

 

[Juin]

Idi Amin?

He was kicked out by the Tanzanian army

 

[Juin]

Well it is the governments who will decide the outcome of this war.

Of course, no-one wants to see more Ukrainians killed (or more Russian soldiers for that matter)
However, Russia/Putin MUST lose this war and be seen to lose it. If Putin has anything that looks like victory, I fear he will try his luck again somewhere else. Somewhere like Georgia or Kazakhstan.

Actually that is what is at stake for Putin here

 

[Juin]

Best case scenario for Russia at this point is to secure the Donbass and complete their land bridge to Crimea. Go home and call it a domestic win, Putin can retire as a hero of Russia, the new Russian government can claim they were against Putin's war and try to get sanctions lifted.

Except that is assuming the Ukrainians accept that he keeps the Donbass and Kherson. In a way Putin is in a fix. He cannot just call it quits with Donbass and Crimea. That depends on Ukraine accepting that. And Ukraine has no reason to accept that if she senses Putin is calling it quits because he has been whipped. So Putin in effect has to fight Ukraine until Ukraine cries uncle. But how much fighting does that entail?

 

[Infinite Chaos]

So Putin in effect has to fight Ukraine until Ukraine cries uncle. But how much fighting does that entail?

All that is happening is that Putin's rivals will feel emboldened - I don't mean in Russia but the ones in other nations he is threatening or has bombed. They will ask for western military trainers and equipment and as long as they can keep artillery forces at bay - tanks and helicopters are now not as effective as they were even 10 years ago.