Has Putin Lost Already?

[Loulit01]

Even if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine, is it a victory? The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan failed. The invasion of Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in effectiveness and moral of Russia's armed forces. European countries, including far right governed Poland, can't do enough for Ukraine, sending money, weapons, and accepting millions of refugees.

Zelensky will be killed or imprisoned by Russia, making him an inspirational martyr, or he will escape and lead a popular and well supported government in exile.

European countries have seen the folly of relying on Russia for gas and oil. While this may not change for years, the incentive not to be dependent on Russia is obvious and enjoys popular support.

And this is all based on Russia "winning" the war. What is a win for Russia here?

 

[CaughtInThe]

he's certainly no genius.

 

[Quag]

Yes he has already lost.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

Best case scenario for Russia at this point is to secure the Donbass and complete their land bridge to Crimea. Go home and call it a domestic win, Putin can retire as a hero of Russia, the new Russian government can claim they were against Putin's war and try to get sanctions lifted.

 

[Loulit01]

Best case scenario for Russia at this point is to secure the Donbass and complete their land bridge to Crimea. Go home and call it a domestic win, Putin can retire as a hero of Russia, the new Russian government can claim they were against Putin's war and try to get sanctions lifted.

Can you name the last dictator who "retired?"

 

[Buckeyes85]

I was thinking of a new thread asking the question, "What Did Putin really expect to achieve by this invasion." Which is essentially the same issue as this thread.

I cannot envision how this can ever be a "win" for Russia for the reason stated in the OP.
If in fact they take over any significant territory, the crippling sanctions will remain, Putin will remain a pariah and like the rebels did in Afghanistan, the home crowd will never stop attacking Russian troops with small ambushes and sabotage. A morale killer for an army already suffering from morale problems (allegedly).

 

[Nomad4Ever]

10 Dictators Who 'Gave Up' Power

Dictatorships. This type of government has no parliament with teeth, or a judiciary with bite. It’s a one-branch show run at the top by a dictator and his trusted yes-men. Corruption via overly

www.realclearhistory.com

Not all of these are dictators (they included George Washington for example), but here are a few.

 

[Loulit01]

10 Dictators Who 'Gave Up' Power

Dictatorships. This type of government has no parliament with teeth, or a judiciary with bite. It’s a one-branch show run at the top by a dictator and his trusted yes-men. Corruption via overly

www.realclearhistory.com

Not all of these are dictators (they included George Washington for example), but here are a few.

Thanks. I learned some things.

 

[Napoleon]

Even if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine, is it a victory? The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan failed. The invasion of Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in effectiveness and moral of Russia's armed forces. European countries, including far right governed Poland, can't do enough for Ukraine, sending money, weapons, and accepting millions of refugees.

Zelensky will be killed or imprisoned by Russia, making him an inspirational martyr, or he will escape and lead a popular and well supported government in exile.

European countries have seen the folly of relying on Russia for gas and oil. While this may not change for years, the incentive not to be dependent on Russia is obvious and enjoys popular support.

And this is all based on Russia "winning" the war. What is a win for Russia here?

A lot of things actually. Two things that come immediately to mind are a secure Crimea and a working knowledge of how NATO really operates - which is to say inefficiently, piecemeal, and ineffectively.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

A lot of things actually. Two things that come immediately to mind are a secure Crimea and a working knowledge of how NATO really operates - which is to say inefficiently, piecemeal, and ineffectively.

Not sure why it matters how NATO operates to Russia when their military clearly can't even handle the Ukrainian military. Like, wow so much info. Now they know exactly how ****ed they would be if they tried to go up against the force they never could have beaten anyway.

 

[Napoleon]

Not sure why it matters how NATO operates to Russia when their military clearly can't even handle the Ukrainian military. Like, wow so much info. Now they know exactly how ****ed they would be if they tried to go up against the force they never could have beaten anyway.

Not necessarily. Russia hasn’t deployed its full conventional military capabilities. The Ukranian military is supplied by NATO and it is losing this war. Russia gets to see, in action, what NATO logistics look like and they’re a hot mess.

 

[Rich2018]

Best case scenario for Russia at this point is to secure the Donbass and complete their land bridge to Crimea. Go home and call it a domestic win, Putin can retire as a hero of Russia, the new Russian government can claim they were against Putin's war and try to get sanctions lifted.

That would probably require Putin's arrest and extradition to face war crimes charges.

 

[Rich2018]

Can you name the last dictator who "retired?"

It's never happened...they all die in office, or are forcibly removed via internal or external forces.

 

[Rich2018]

Not necessarily. Russia hasn’t deployed its full conventional military capabilities. The Ukranian military is supplied by NATO and it is losing this war. Russia gets to see, in action, what NATO logistics look like and they’re a hot mess.

Sorry, are you saying NATO logistics are a "hot mess" ?

If so, is this in comparison to Russian or Ukrainian logistics ?

 

[Loulit01]

What's with all the NATO bashing? Ukraine wouldn't have held out anywhere near this long without NATO help.

 

[Fledermaus]

Can you name the last dictator who "retired?"

Generalissimo Antonio de Padua María Severino López de Santa Anna y Pérez de Lebrón

 

[Loulit01]

Not necessarily. Russia hasn’t deployed its full conventional military capabilities. The Ukranian military is supplied by NATO and it is losing this war. Russia gets to see, in action, what NATO logistics look like and they’re a hot mess.

The Ukranian military is losing the war because it's facing...

The Russian Military: 600 Ships, 4,000 Aircraft, One Million Men​

The Russian Military: 600 Ships, 4,000 Aircraft, One Million Men

The Soviet military once boasted up to four million men, but the Russian military of 2021 is still one of the world's deadliest.

nationalinterest.org

Russia has retreated from it's first objective, taking the country in one fell swope, and is now trying to take it piecemeal. Ukraine is kicking ass with NATO's help.

 

[Loulit01]

Generalissimo Antonio de Padua María Severino López de Santa Anna y Pérez de Lebrón

You call that retired? He got his butt whipped all over Texas.

 

[Rich2018]

A lot of things actually. Two things that come immediately to mind are a secure Crimea and a working knowledge of how NATO really operates - which is to say inefficiently, piecemeal, and ineffectively.

1. The Crimea would/will not be secure
It's hard to imagine the Ukrainians agreeing to a peace where they formally cede any part of its land

2. How do they see how NATO operations work?
NATO forces are not involved

The best case scenario for Russia is a temporary halt to combat operations, and accept a long attritional insurgency campaign from the Ukraine
Eventually the USSR pulled out of Afghanistan, as the USA did (and Vietnam before it) when Soviet/US political will to keep spending $billions, for no political gain, runs out*

So the message for the Ukraine is to keep fighting and cost the Russian economy money it cannot afford.

*Note: This will be accelerated by Western sanctions, especially if/when Europe can end its dependence of Russian fossil fuel.

 

[Fledermaus]

You call that retired? He got his butt whipped all over Texas.

He actually "retired" a couple of times.

He was called back to office after the war and subsequently sold more land to the US.

After which he was deposed. Again.

He also helped introduce bubble gum to the US.

 

[MaryP]

Even if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine, is it a victory? The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan failed. The invasion of Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in effectiveness and moral of Russia's armed forces. European countries, including far right governed Poland, can't do enough for Ukraine, sending money, weapons, and accepting millions of refugees.

Zelensky will be killed or imprisoned by Russia, making him an inspirational martyr, or he will escape and lead a popular and well supported government in exile.

European countries have seen the folly of relying on Russia for gas and oil. While this may not change for years, the incentive not to be dependent on Russia is obvious and enjoys popular support.

And this is all based on Russia "winning" the war. What is a win for Russia here?

No. He hasn't lost and if he annexes Ukraine, as you say, he's won. There is no consolation in him losing a few friends. We can't let it happen.

 

[Loulit01]

No. He hasn't lost and if he annexes Ukraine, as you say, he's won. There is no consolation in him losing a few friends. We can't let it happen.

I can see that point.

 

[Rich2018]

No. He hasn't lost and if he annexes Ukraine, as you say, he's won. There is no consolation in him losing a few friends. We can't let it happen.

I don't think it's possible for Russia to "annex" the Ukraine. The absolute best Russia can hope for is to occupy it - not the same thing at all.

 

[MaryP]

I don't think it's possible for Russia to "annex" the Ukraine. The absolute best Russia can hope for is to occupy it - not the same thing at all.

Is that supposed to cheer me up? Because it isn't working.

 

[MaryP]

I don't think it's possible for Russia to "annex" the Ukraine. The absolute best Russia can hope for is to occupy it - not the same thing at all.

What would be the difference to the average Ukranian? NOTHING.