Has President Trump been more politically successful than Barack Hussein Obama?

[Moderate Right]

And even though the democrats didn't win back the senate this year - more people voted democrat than republican in both the House and Senate elections. It was the highest mid-term turn out since Nixon era.

Oh and a lot of those republicans that won in the senate - many of them were VERY VERY CLOSE. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz just scraped in. And we all know Florida and Texas suppressed black and latino voters, closed down voting places or undermanned them hoping the voters would give up and go home and not vote.

LOL. Excuses, excuses. Republicans had a red tsunami as a referendum on Obama's first midterm, followed by more tsunamis throughout his presidency. Historically, the minority party always gains seats in the midterms. The fact that the blue wave was rather wimpy compared to the last eight years under Obama is very telling. Democrats are embracing Socialism, which is sure to scare the bejesus out of voters in future years.

 

[Moderate Right]

Excellent point. And trump is asking to borrow a further $1.3 TRILLION because he has blown the deficit out of the water. And he still wants to spend billions on a wall and a military parade.

And furthermore - trump's EXCESSIVE golf trips and vacations have cost the American taxpayer OVER $100 MILLION in just under 2 years. And he is flying to Mar-lar-go again this holiday weekend. Previous presidents volunteered their time in soup kitchens eg. President Obama or visited the troops serving overseas eg. President Obama.

trump is a waste of space. Whoever is president after this thing will have a bigger mess to clean up than the one President Obama had to clean up.

No one borrowed more money than Obama. Are you now willing to admit Obama was the worst president the country has ever had?

 

[Moderate Right]

That may be but why did you refer to it in the poll when a straight question would have shown less bias. Trump's serial adultry costs him politically, but you don't refer to it in the poll.

Ummmmmmmmmmmm. There is absolutely zero evidence that Trump has committed any adultery at all for at least 12 years. He had the Access Hollywood tape and still got elected president. What makes you think adultery from 12 years ago is going to make a difference?

 

[Hawkeye10]

Both parties are responsible for the mortgage bubble and that's what caused the Great Recession.

And the unregulated and very dangerous Credit Default Swaps...that was all Congresses fault, both parties.

 

[Moderate Right]

I'll say this for Trump. He never hid his personality. If he was so distasteful to independents, surly they would have voted against him in 2016 as well as2018.

As I said in a previous post, I am an Independent and I refused to vote for Trump in 2016 (wrote in Kasich) but would consider him more next time around in 2020, particularly if the country looks like it could make a hard left. In that case I would be more than happy to fill in the bubble for Trump.

 

[Moderate Right]

Lessee... millions more with medical insurance, climate agreement with all the other nations in the world, openings to Iran together with our allies and Russia, trying to end decades of failed Cuba policy and catch up with the rest of the world, US reputation in the world enhanced, deficit reduced most every year... obviously a disaster if a democrat does it, triumph if a republican does.

The medical insurance is over rated. People have "insurance" they can't use because of the very high copays, deductibles, and coinsurance. Yes, they have insurance but they don't go to the doctor or other providers because they can't afford the out of pocket costs. And, many middle income people who earn too much to receive subsidies go without insurance altogether because the premiums skyrocketed every year under Obama and they simply can't afford it. That's the group I belonged to. I own my own business and my stay at home wife had to go out and get a job with insurance because Obamacare priced us out of the market with no subsidies. We simply couldn't afford it and I strongly considered our last year of getting Obamacare to simply go without insurance. As usual, with liberal policies, the middle class gets screwed.

 

[Moderate Right]

Not really, it was his opponent that independents disliked more than Trump. Take a look at this 7 Nov 2016 poll, the day before the election. Questions 10 and 11. Only 27% of independents had a very or somewhat favorable view of Hillary Clinton, 70% somewhat or very unfavorable view of her. Her opponent, Trump was at the time viewed either very or somewhat favorably by 40% of independents, 57% viewed him either very or somewhat unfavorably.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

There's no question independents disliked Hillary more than Trump enabling Trump to beat Hillary among independents 46-42. Still, enough independents disliked both candidates for 12% of them to vote third party, refusing to vote for or choose between Trump and Clinton.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

I sincerely believe that almost any other Democrat would have easily beaten Trump. At least won the independent vote by a more substantial margin. You're correct, Trump was just as obnoxious in 2016 as he has been over the last two years. But Hillary Clinton was on the ballot in 2016, she wasn't in 2018. Hillary wasn't there to save Trump this year. Without Hillary, independents voted 54-42 for the Democratic congressional candidates.

Trump and the GOP didn't lose that much support from 2016 among independents, a four point difference from 46 down to 42. But support for Democrats, minus Clinton climbed 12 points from 42 up to 54. The big difference is instead of 12% voting third party as in 2016, only 4% of independents did so in 2018. Without Hillary on the ballot, they opted for the Democrats.

It depends on who the Democratic nominee will be in 2020. If the party takes a hard left I will gladly vote for Trump in 2020 because my distaste will not be any different than if Hillary was on the ticket.

 

[Moderate Right]

Great in what way related to a Trump policy?

The biggest thing is, if Hillary had been elected, a substantial increase in the minimum wage would have put my business out of business. I provide services to customers so I have to charge a certain amount over the wages I pay in order to make a profit and my services are not cheap as it is. While I don't pay anywhere close to minimum wage now, large increases would have forced me to keep up. And, in the service business, when minimum wage goes up $5 per hour then I actually lose money if I only charge my customers only a $5 per hour increase, of which many of them have difficulty paying even now. It's not like retail where if the minimum wage went up $5 per hour all I would have to do is charge 25 cents more per hamburger or gallon of milk in order to cover the increase. Most all service industries would suffer greatly as our customer base, if faced with greatly increased prices (even if spread out over years) would simply opt to not get service at all instead of paying such high prices.

Secondly, the Republican tax plan greatly helps me personally, being a business. It has actually allowed me to pay my workers more money than I had been paying them before as well as making life easier for me financially. This has also helped my employees at the same time because they are now earning more than they were before.

Thirdly, I just can't stand political correctness or liberal policies and I hate the fact that some of my tax dollars go for paying for illegals who shouldn't be here in the first place. Anyone who comes here should come here LEGALLY and should be able to support themselves, not immediately go on the government dole.

 

[Perotista]

It depends on who the Democratic nominee will be in 2020. If the party takes a hard left I will gladly vote for Trump in 2020 because my distaste will not be any different than if Hillary was on the ticket.

Your prerogative. Trump is someone I could never vote for, neither was Hillary Clinton. So for me, the question is will I vote Democratic or third party again. It all depends on whom the Democrats select. It may not matter, Trump has alienated most independents with his uncouth and unpresidential behavior. More than half anyway as his favorable/unfavorable ratings show. Trump and the Republican party are still the smaller of the two major parties, they can't win without winning the independent vote. This has been the case since 1932.

Trends in Party Identification, 1939-2014 | Pew Research Center

 

[Moderate Right]

Your prerogative. Trump is someone I could never vote for, neither was Hillary Clinton. So for me, the question is will I vote Democratic or third party again. It all depends on whom the Democrats select. It may not matter, Trump has alienated most independents with his uncouth and unpresidential behavior. More than half anyway as his favorable/unfavorable ratings show. Trump and the Republican party are still the smaller of the two major parties, they can't win without winning the independent vote. This has been the case since 1932.

Trends in Party Identification, 1939-2014 | Pew Research Center

I don't want to vote for Trump. But, hard left socialism must be stopped. I wouldn't just automatically assume Trump will coast through the Republican primary in 2020.

 

[Perotista]

I don't want to vote for Trump. But, hard left socialism must be stopped. I wouldn't just automatically assume Trump will coast through the Republican primary in 2020.

Trump may indeed have a primary challenger. But history shows all that I can remember as being unsuccessful. Pat Buchanan challenged G.H.W. Bush in 1992, Teddy Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford 1976, all sitting presidents lost. Eugene McCarthy challenged LBJ in 1968, LBJ decided not to seek reelection after narrowly winning the New Hampshire Primary. I suppose one could say McCarthy was a success in that he basically drove LBJ out of the presidential race. But McCarthy failed to win the Democratic nomination, that going to Humphrey. The same could be said of Estes Kefauver who challenged Harry S. Truman in 1952. Kefauver caused Truman to withdraw after losing the New Hampshire primary to Kefauver. Kefauver like McCarthy failed to win the Democratic nomination, that going to Adlai Stevenson. Stevenson lost in 1952 to Eisenhower.

Challenges to sitting presidents don't succeed, at least post WWII. Those candidate like McCarthy and Kefauver who were successful in getting the sitting president to withdraw, were later challenged themselves, losing to the newer challengers. The bottom line is the party of a sitting president that was challenged in the primaries, all lost the presidential general election.

If history repeats itself, challenging Trump in 2020 if he decides to run again, would probably guarantee a Democratic victory.

 

[JustHanging]

I wouldn't just automatically assume Trump will coast through the Republican primary in 2020.

Unless things drastically change, I would. He has the racist vote sewn up, and the research is clear: there are a lot of racists in the Republican party.

 

[JustHanging]

The medical insurance is over rated. People have "insurance" they can't use because of the very high copays, deductibles, and coinsurance. Yes, they have insurance but they don't go to the doctor or other providers because they can't afford the out of pocket costs. And, many middle income people who earn too much to receive subsidies go without insurance altogether because the premiums skyrocketed every year under Obama and they simply can't afford it. That's the group I belonged to. I own my own business and my stay at home wife had to go out and get a job with insurance because Obamacare priced us out of the market with no subsidies. We simply couldn't afford it and I strongly considered our last year of getting Obamacare to simply go without insurance. As usual, with liberal policies, the middle class gets screwed.

And many in the middle class got screwed by the previous system, by pre-existing conditions for example. Get hit by that when you need cancer treatment, and your wife can't get just get a job and cover the expenses. You're likely screwed for life.

Pretending the middle class got screwed worse under Obama is ridiculous in the extreme.

 

[Middle_Ground]

The biggest thing is, if Hillary had been elected, a substantial increase in the minimum wage would have put my business out of business. I provide services to customers so I have to charge a certain amount over the wages I pay in order to make a profit and my services are not cheap as it is. While I don't pay anywhere close to minimum wage now, large increases would have forced me to keep up. And, in the service business, when minimum wage goes up $5 per hour then I actually lose money if I only charge my customers only a $5 per hour increase, of which many of them have difficulty paying even now. It's not like retail where if the minimum wage went up $5 per hour all I would have to do is charge 25 cents more per hamburger or gallon of milk in order to cover the increase. Most all service industries would suffer greatly as our customer base, if faced with greatly increased prices (even if spread out over years) would simply opt to not get service at all instead of paying such high prices.

Secondly, the Republican tax plan greatly helps me personally, being a business. It has actually allowed me to pay my workers more money than I had been paying them before as well as making life easier for me financially. This has also helped my employees at the same time because they are now earning more than they were before.

Thirdly, I just can't stand political correctness or liberal policies and I hate the fact that some of my tax dollars go for paying for illegals who shouldn't be here in the first place. Anyone who comes here should come here LEGALLY and should be able to support themselves, not immediately go on the government dole.

Okay so it's not what Trump has done it's more what you think the other guy would have done.
I hear you on the minimum wage I have 2 small businesses my lowest rate employee is at $14 an hour most of my people are $17-25 and they all have health insurance.
The tax cuts gave my businesses a few extra dollars but the planned expansion has been put off due to higher cost of everything. It would be a negative for me right know.
My personal taxes are gonna hurt a bit because I own property in high tax states and the values are dropping which really sucks.
Trump has not hurt me yet but he has stopped me from expanding and hiring more.
I was not a fan of Hilary I'm just trying to find 1 person that the new 1 state government policies has actually helped. Other than venture capitalist or investors.

 

[Nickyjo]

The medical insurance is over rated. People have "insurance" they can't use because of the very high copays, deductibles, and coinsurance. Yes, they have insurance but they don't go to the doctor or other providers because they can't afford the out of pocket costs. And, many middle income people who earn too much to receive subsidies go without insurance altogether because the premiums skyrocketed every year under Obama and they simply can't afford it. That's the group I belonged to. I own my own business and my stay at home wife had to go out and get a job with insurance because Obamacare priced us out of the market with no subsidies. We simply couldn't afford it and I strongly considered our last year of getting Obamacare to simply go without insurance. As usual, with liberal policies, the middle class gets screwed.

So i gather it did help millions, including poor people. Obama himself has admitted it’s not perfect and is not opposing changes. You are forgetting that he opened the door and that the GOP is on board wanting not only to repeal, but more importantly to replace. I would have opted for a version of Medicare/caid for all, politically impossible at the time. I thought the ACA was absurdly complicated. But Obama deserves credit for doing what was possible, what should have been done generations before. He changed public debate on the issue. Don’t like the ACA?, take the story of its negative effects on you to your representative and get it changed. Even Trump said he would replace it with something better. We are no doubt moving towards what other countries do, and have the advantage of being able to learn from their mistakes.

 

[Moderate Right]

Trump may indeed have a primary challenger. But history shows all that I can remember as being unsuccessful. Pat Buchanan challenged G.H.W. Bush in 1992, Teddy Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford 1976, all sitting presidents lost. Eugene McCarthy challenged LBJ in 1968, LBJ decided not to seek reelection after narrowly winning the New Hampshire Primary. I suppose one could say McCarthy was a success in that he basically drove LBJ out of the presidential race. But McCarthy failed to win the Democratic nomination, that going to Humphrey. The same could be said of Estes Kefauver who challenged Harry S. Truman in 1952. Kefauver caused Truman to withdraw after losing the New Hampshire primary to Kefauver. Kefauver like McCarthy failed to win the Democratic nomination, that going to Adlai Stevenson. Stevenson lost in 1952 to Eisenhower.

Challenges to sitting presidents don't succeed, at least post WWII. Those candidate like McCarthy and Kefauver who were successful in getting the sitting president to withdraw, were later challenged themselves, losing to the newer challengers. The bottom line is the party of a sitting president that was challenged in the primaries, all lost the presidential general election.

If history repeats itself, challenging Trump in 2020 if he decides to run again, would probably guarantee a Democratic victory.

Well, if there is one thing we can learn from Donald Trump it is that the rule book can be thrown away.

 

[Moderate Right]

Unless things drastically change, I would. He has the racist vote sewn up, and the research is clear: there are a lot of racists in the Republican party.

That's just your blabbering liberal propaganda. Racists didn't elect Trump president and racists didn't make Trump the nominee.

 

[Moderate Right]

And many in the middle class got screwed by the previous system, by pre-existing conditions for example. Get hit by that when you need cancer treatment, and your wife can't get just get a job and cover the expenses. You're likely screwed for life.

Pretending the middle class got screwed worse under Obama is ridiculous in the extreme.

Republicans want a system where there are three classes, the poor, the middle class, and the rich. Liberals just want two classes, the rich and the poor. Every policy liberals favor or enact screws the middle class and wipes them off the face of the Earth.

 

[Moderate Right]

Okay so it's not what Trump has done it's more what you think the other guy would have done.
I hear you on the minimum wage I have 2 small businesses my lowest rate employee is at $14 an hour most of my people are $17-25 and they all have health insurance.
The tax cuts gave my businesses a few extra dollars but the planned expansion has been put off due to higher cost of everything. It would be a negative for me right know.
My personal taxes are gonna hurt a bit because I own property in high tax states and the values are dropping which really sucks.
Trump has not hurt me yet but he has stopped me from expanding and hiring more.
I was not a fan of Hilary I'm just trying to find 1 person that the new 1 state government policies has actually helped. Other than venture capitalist or investors.

We already know what the other guy would have done. Hillary wanted a $12 per hour minimum wage on the campaign trail (still too high for my taste) but when asked if Congress sent a bill to her as president for $15 if she would sign it she said, "Sure". We already know what liberals want and it is the scourge of the Earth. Almost every policy. We don't have to guess what either party wants. This is not rocket science. And, we already know that the left wants single payer health care, AKA a huge tax increase on EVERYONE.

 

[Moderate Right]

So i gather it did help millions, including poor people. Obama himself has admitted it’s not perfect and is not opposing changes. You are forgetting that he opened the door and that the GOP is on board wanting not only to repeal, but more importantly to replace. I would have opted for a version of Medicare/caid for all, politically impossible at the time. I thought the ACA was absurdly complicated. But Obama deserves credit for doing what was possible, what should have been done generations before. He changed public debate on the issue. Don’t like the ACA?, take the story of its negative effects on you to your representative and get it changed. Even Trump said he would replace it with something better. We are no doubt moving towards what other countries do, and have the advantage of being able to learn from their mistakes.

Obamacare didn't help millions or the poor. The poor don't use Obamacare because they know they can't afford to go to the doctor and pay the out of pocket expenses.

 

[Middle_Ground]

Obamacare didn't help millions or the poor. The poor don't use Obamacare because they know they can't afford to go to the doctor and pay the out of pocket expenses.

It did help the working poor in states whose governors didn't fight it. For example you said your a business owner. If you pay your employees $10-12 an hour they would qualify for Medicaid with a small monthly premium payment.
The ACA works in states that didnt fight it and it didnt cut out the middle class it hurt people like you and I small business owners. That's a fix the Republicans should be working on but they are not.

 

[Bullseye]

He's been in office less than two years, ask again at the end of his term.

 

[Bullseye]

huh? Obama didn't lose the senate until his second term. Also, more people voted against the GOP and Trump in 2018 than they did Obama and the Dems back in 2010.

You do know there are MORE people in the country today than in 2010, right? Oh, and neither Obama nor Trump were on the ballot this year.

 

[Greenbeard]

Obamacare didn't help millions or the poor.

Tens of millions.

 

[Perotista]

Well, if there is one thing we can learn from Donald Trump it is that the rule book can be thrown away.

Have we? Or was the rule book, call it conventional wisdom been maintained. Sure, you have all the Trumpers going around saying all the polls were wrong. Have they ever stopped to look at what was being polled. The popular vote. The polls said Clinton by 3 points on average, she won by two. The polls weren't wrong. Trump won because he squeaked wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Conventional wisdom, history if you will says a president will lose seats in his first midterm election. Trump has lost 39 with four still pending, not decided. That's an average of 23 seats since 1934, FDR through and including Obama. Trump lost 16 above average. Only three presidents, Obama, Bill Clinton and LBJ lost more than 39. Obama, Bill Clinton lost control of the House, LBJ didn't. LBJ had 295 to start off with, fell to 248 which still gave him a 61 seat majority. LBJ could easily afford to lose those 47 seats. In 1954, the only other president to lose control of the house in his first term, Eisenhower lost 18. IKE loss of 18 hurt him and the GOP much more than LBJ's 47.

It's true Trump's win was unique in that he became first candidate ever, or since Gallup and Pew Research began keeping track of favorable ratings with a favorable rating of below 51%. Trump at 36% set the record for the lowest favorable rating ever at 36%. Only three other presidential candidates since FDR had favorable ratings of below 50%, Hillary Clinton 38%, Barry Goldwater 43%, G.H.W. Bush 46% in 1992. Those three lost. But Trump won by having Hillary Clinton as his opponent, the second lowest ever candidate in favorable ratings. So yes, that is a unique election. 2016 just happened to pit the two candidate with the lowest favorable ratings ever against each other.

Other than that, conventional wisdom, history, the rule still applies. Of the two president who withdrew after being challenged, Trump had a 22% approval rating, LBJ 35% approval. The other who lost the general election, Ford had a 45% approval, Carter 37% and G.W.H. Bush at 31% on election day. Approval rating being different than how one views the person, favorable rating.