Half Of 2015 Murder Increase Came From Three Cities

[MickeyW]

Uh huh

New York City and San Francisco are two of the most liberal cities in the US. And yet, their crime rates have fallen since the 1990s, are very low, and staying low. Care to explain?

Changes in overall crime rate from 2014 to 2015:
NYC: -1%
Los Angeles: 12%
Chicago: -7%
Houston: -4.9%
Philadelphia: -6.5%
Austin: -9.8%
Seattle: -9.3%
DC: -5%
Boston: -9.2%

Violent Crimes Only:
NYC: 0.2%
Los Angeles: 25%
Chicago: 0.3%
Houston: -2.4%
Philadelphia: -1.5%
Austin: -8.6%
Seattle: -1.4%
DC: 2%
Boston: -2.9%

Cherry-picking two or three cities, and ignoring not just changes in about two dozen cities, but ignoring over 20 years of data, is beyond absurd. If we were genuinely going to use such crude correlations, we'd say that cities with Democratic officials and/or liberal citizens vastly reduce crime rates. (Note: I am not supporting that claim, only pointing out the bias evident in your highly selective choice of examples.)

Oh, and guess what? All the screaming about crime rates getting worse last year? Wrong. Crime rates didn't change across the US in 2015. It was flat. It's also been going down almost every year during the Bush and Obama administrations, despite going through the worst economic downturn since the 1930s. Hmmm.

Yes I would. A beefed up police presence and more arrests being made. SF and NYC has more cops per capita than most other cities....and the taxpayers pay through the nose for it! Still doesn't offset the bad behavior of certain ethnic groups, who commit 70% of the crime where present.
And........many departments manipulate the figures going to the FBI...I know this for a fact.

Crime rates didn't change? I submit....a cooking of the books. 2016 however, is on course to exceed those figures.

Get rid of the liberals always making excuses for these people.. They make them believe that it's always someone elses fault that they are poor and justify the way they act..

Precisely!

 

[Visbek]

Yes I would. A beefed up police presence and more arrests being made. SF and NYC has more cops per capita than most other cities...

wrong

St Louis, NYC, Philly, Wilmington, Chicago, Baltimore all have around 41-44 officers per 10,000 people. Washington DC has 61 officers per 10,000 people, and its crime rate is about double that of NYC. Lots of big cities are in the 30 range. San Francisco is around 27.

There isn't much (if any) correlation between numbers of officers, and crime rates.

Still doesn't offset the bad behavior of certain ethnic groups, who commit 70% of the crime where present.

Good grief.

News flash! It's not about race, it's mostly about poverty and inequality. And really, no one currently understands what causes crime, or causes crime rates to rise or fall. Of course, learning that requires looking at evidence rather than clinging to pre-existing ideas about race and crime, so....

And........many departments manipulate the figures going to the FBI...I know this for a fact.

:roll:

If that was the case, then why did anyone report increases in crime in the first half of 2015? What about the 1970s, 80s and early 90s? The incentives are just as prevalent then as they are now.

Crime rates didn't change? I submit....a cooking of the books. 2016 however, is on course to exceed those figures.

Based on what? Did you stick your finger into the wind?

It is way too early to get reliable numbers for 2016. But hey, don't let pesky things like facts stop you when you're in mid-rant.

 

[MickeyW]

wrong

St Louis, NYC, Philly, Wilmington, Chicago, Baltimore all have around 41-44 officers per 10,000 people. Washington DC has 61 officers per 10,000 people, and its crime rate is about double that of NYC. Lots of big cities are in the 30 range. San Francisco is around 27.

There isn't much (if any) correlation between numbers of officers, and crime rates.



Good grief.

News flash! It's not about race, it's mostly about poverty and inequality. And really, no one currently understands what causes crime, or causes crime rates to rise or fall. Of course, learning that requires looking at evidence rather than clinging to pre-existing ideas about race and crime, so....



:roll:

If that was the case, then why did anyone report increases in crime in the first half of 2015? What about the 1970s, 80s and early 90s? The incentives are just as prevalent then as they are now.



Based on what? Did you stick your finger into the wind?

It is way too early to get reliable numbers for 2016. But hey, don't let pesky things like facts stop you when you're in mid-rant.

It's not just about number of officers, it's policing strategy and implementation of same.

It is most certainly about race! If you are talking Poverty and Inequality, you are talking mostly about one group. My entire county has few Blacks, less than 1/10th of 1% and crime rates are very low, dealing mostly with white trash and transients, stealing or doing drugs.
The larger the city, with a higher Black population...across the board ....translates to more crime and much more violent crime. I see it daily!

It's not too early to assess what is going on in 2016....all you have to do is watch the news from across the nation. I don't need to see a compilation of stats to know what is going on daily .....in America!

 

[yankintx]

Get rid of the liberals always making excuses for these people.. They make them believe that it's always someone elses fault that they are poor and justify the way they act..

And what of those 4 Southern States with the highest murder rates in the country, controlled by Republicans, will you be fair and blame the other side? Or is this partisan?

 

[yankintx]

And what of those 4 Southern States with the highest murder rates in the country, controlled by Republicans, will you be fair and blame the other side? Or is this partisan?

The silence confirms my original thought, were only discussing crime in Dem controlled areas

I get it

 

[Orly?]

And what of those 4 Southern States with the highest murder rates in the country, controlled by Republicans, will you be fair and blame the other side? Or is this partisan?

How likely do you think those perps are to be hillary voters?

The silence confirms my original thought, were only discussing crime in Dem controlled areas

I get it

Maybe the silence confirms that I have a life..

 

[SocialD]

Uh huh

New York City and San Francisco are two of the most liberal cities in the US. And yet, their crime rates have fallen since the 1990s, are very low, and staying low. Care to explain?

Changes in overall crime rate from 2014 to 2015:
NYC: -1%
Los Angeles: 12%
Chicago: -7%
Houston: -4.9%
Philadelphia: -6.5%
Austin: -9.8%
Seattle: -9.3%
DC: -5%
Boston: -9.2%

Violent Crimes Only:
NYC: 0.2%
Los Angeles: 25%
Chicago: 0.3%
Houston: -2.4%
Philadelphia: -1.5%
Austin: -8.6%
Seattle: -1.4%
DC: 2%
Boston: -2.9%

Cherry-picking two or three cities, and ignoring not just changes in about two dozen cities, but ignoring over 20 years of data, is beyond absurd. If we were genuinely going to use such crude correlations, we'd say that cities with Democratic officials and/or liberal citizens vastly reduce crime rates. (Note: I am not supporting that claim, only pointing out the bias evident in your highly selective choice of examples.)

Oh, and guess what? All the screaming about crime rates getting worse last year? Wrong. Crime rates didn't change across the US in 2015. It was flat. It's also been going down almost every year during the Bush and Obama administrations, despite going through the worst economic downturn since the 1930s. Hmmm.

By your numbers you are providing NYC has a slightly increased violent crime rate not a falling one. But that is not the point.
The point is Baltimore , Chicago and Wash DC are 3 cities that have had some of the most strict gun laws in the nation. that's the point. And Los Angeles which also has increased rates also has enacted stricter gun laws in the city on top of the already fairly strict state laws.

 

[TurtleDude]

What are the gun laws in those cities?

They are all rated very highly by the Brady Organization and other anti rights coalition members.

 

[TurtleDude]

Gutted by the Supreme Court.

yeah those complete handgun bans in DC and Chicago are keeping those cities' murder rates real low

guess what-almost all the killings that came after the Supreme court struck down those idiotic bans are not perpetrated by people who legally obtained previously banned handguns.

would you explain to me why a libertarian would support those two cities' idiotic gun bans of the past since your post clearly suggests you do?

 

[Visbek]

It's not just about number of officers, it's policing strategy and implementation of same.

You, uh, DO realize that it was you suggesting that it was the number of officers and "police presence" that matters, right?

You also do know that programs like Stop & Frisk did not reduce crime in NYC? That SF did not have an equivalent program?

Do you have a single stitch of data to back up your assertions?

My entire county has few Blacks, less than 1/10th of 1% and crime rates are very low, dealing mostly with white trash and transients, stealing or doing drugs.

There are well over 3100 counties and equivalents. Pointing to one county in this respect is kind of ridiculous. It certainly doesn't tell us anything about causality.

The larger the city, with a higher Black population...across the board ....translates to more crime and much more violent crime. I see it daily!

What you see is an effect, which you conflate with the causes. I.e. you see what you want to see.

It's not too early to assess what is going on in 2016....all you have to do is watch the news from across the nation.

That is the single worst way to evaluate crime rates.

There are well over 300 million people in the United States. In 2014, over 1 million violent crimes were reported -- that's over 2,700 per day. There isn't enough time in the day for you to keep track of all the crimes happening, let alone keep track of changes over time.

By the way, numerous polling agencies have picked up on the substantial divide between perceptions of crime, and the reality. Chances are very good that it's due to people "watching the news" -- and ignoring the statistics:

And for good measure:

So no, I do not buy into this nonsensical claim that crime is going up in 2016 because you feel like it is.

 

[Eric7216]

And what of those 4 Southern States with the highest murder rates in the country, controlled by Republicans, will you be fair and blame the other side? Or is this partisan?

I am very confused by your posts. Previously, you wrote:

The top 4 are SOUTHERN states, now if I had an agenda I would look at who controls the State politically, and lay blame (sound familiar) at the party in power. But I have more important things to do than lay blame at the Dems or Rep, you may want to try it sometime

And yet you seem to blame Republicans. OK, let's look at those 4 states. Mississippi-3 Republican governors since 1876. Missouri-4 Republican governors out of the last 15 since 1945 with the current governor a Democrat. South Carolina-5 Republican governors out of the last 27. And Louisiana-5 Republican governors out of the last 29 and the current governor is a Democrat.

Wish that Americans had more of a sense of history. Pick a state that does well and look at the governors. In general, they have been great states for a long time and seem to have a lot of Republican governors when they achieved high marks. Democrats took over after they got good. And the bottom states seem to have been done for a long time and have a majority of Democratic governors.

Was your earlier post passive aggressive?

 

[yankintx]

I am very confused by your posts. Previously, you wrote:

And yet you seem to blame Republicans. OK, let's look at those 4 states. Mississippi-3 Republican governors since 1876. Missouri-4 Republican governors out of the last 15 since 1945 with the current governor a Democrat. South Carolina-5 Republican governors out of the last 27. And Louisiana-5 Republican governors out of the last 29 and the current governor is a Democrat.

Wish that Americans had more of a sense of history. Pick a state that does well and look at the governors. In general, they have been great states for a long time and seem to have a lot of Republican governors when they achieved high marks. Democrats took over after they got good. And the bottom states seem to have been done for a long time and have a majority of Democratic governors.

Was your earlier post passive aggressive?

Nope

I never blamed Republicans, you assumed

You really didn't get the intent of my post at all did you?

I suggest you read thru the entire thread before making an ass out of your self

Go back to school. I do not have the time to educate you

 

[katzgar]

By your numbers you are providing NYC has a slightly increased violent crime rate not a falling one. But that is not the point.
The point is Baltimore , Chicago and Wash DC are 3 cities that have had some of the most strict gun laws in the nation. that's the point. And Los Angeles which also has increased rates also has enacted stricter gun laws in the city on top of the already fairly strict state laws.

the actual point is you are creating a reality that doesnt exist. Classic right wing foolishness.

 

[Visbek]

By your numbers you are providing NYC has a slightly increased violent crime rate not a falling one. But that is not the point.

NYC's crime rate fell by 1%. It did not increase. The violent crime rate rose by 0.2%, which is statistically insignificant.
NYC’s Crime Rate Hits a New Record-Low -- NYMag

The point is Baltimore , Chicago and Wash DC are 3 cities that have had some of the most strict gun laws in the nation. that's the point.

Yes, I had noticed that. Since you obviously missed it, I'm pointing out how that is cherry-picking and/or based in ignorance. We see that right in your own response, where you ignored a half dozen cities and the substantial drops in crime since the 1990s.

You do realize that liberal cities outnumber conservative ones nearly 4 to 1? And that the most conservative cities are nowhere near as far to the right, as the most liberal cities are to the left?

You do know that Houston and San Antonio have nearly the same crime rate as Chicago?

Why is crime falling Detroit, while it's rising in Charlotte NC?

Many of the cities in the list have strict gun laws (NYC, SF, LA, Boston). Why has crime fallen in most of these cities almost every year since 1992?

You do understand that crime rates have fallen low enough that a small increase in absolute numbers can produce a relatively large jump in percentages?

To put it another way: Facts really aren't on the side of those who want to blame liberal policies for increases in crime rates, because those policies were enacted at the same time as a substantial multi-year drop in crime since the 1990s. The only way you can get there is a result of bias, which motivates cherry-picking and ignoring well over 20 years of data.

 

[sangha]

According to the FBI stats the States with the highest murder rates per 100 thousand people are, drum roll please:

Murder Rates Nationally and By State | Death Penalty Information Center

The top 4 are SOUTHERN states, now if I had an agenda I would look at who controls the State politically, and lay blame (sound familiar) at the party in power. But I have more important things to do than lay blame at the Dems or Rep, you may want to try it sometime.

The south also has the highest rate of violent crimes

 

[yankintx]

The south also has the highest rate of violent crimes

But, but, its the libtards and gun banners fault!!

I guess it must be a liberal plot in these GOP controlled States lol

Jeesh, some you folks sure need some education

 

[Utility Man]

How very astonishing :roll:

A recent study by the Brennan Center for Justice shows that more than half of all of the murder increases in the United States were centered in just three cities: Baltimore, Maryland; Chicago, Illinois; and Washington, D.C. That’s an incredible statistic when you stop and think about it. Over half of U.S. murder increases came from just three cities.
Chuck Baldwin -- Half Of 2015 Murder Increases Came From Three Cities

Gun Humpers love to have their cake and eat it too.......

http://www.debatepolitics.com/gun-c...ed-residents-send-murder-rate-plummeting.html

 

[yankintx]

How very astonishing :roll:



Gun Humpers love to have their cake and eat it too.......

http://www.debatepolitics.com/gun-c...ed-residents-send-murder-rate-plummeting.html

Well spotted, my hat is off to you

Mickey W consider yourself served lol

 

[SocialD]

the actual point is you are creating a reality that doesnt exist. Classic right wing foolishness.

What it is is classic head in the sand foolishness, honestly.. a stronger word that foolishness is appropriate.. for some to someone to argue that it doesn't exist when the facts are right in front of the... like you just did.

 

[SocialD]

NYC's crime rate fell by 1%. It did not increase. The violent crime rate rose by 0.2%, which is statistically insignificant.
NYC’s Crime Rate Hits a New Record-Low -- NYMag



Yes, I had noticed that. Since you obviously missed it, I'm pointing out how that is cherry-picking and/or based in ignorance. We see that right in your own response, where you ignored a half dozen cities and the substantial drops in crime since the 1990s.

You do realize that liberal cities outnumber conservative ones nearly 4 to 1? And that the most conservative cities are nowhere near as far to the right, as the most liberal cities are to the left?

You do know that Houston and San Antonio have nearly the same crime rate as Chicago?

Why is crime falling Detroit, while it's rising in Charlotte NC?

Many of the cities in the list have strict gun laws (NYC, SF, LA, Boston). Why has crime fallen in most of these cities almost every year since 1992?

You do understand that crime rates have fallen low enough that a small increase in absolute numbers can produce a relatively large jump in percentages?

To put it another way: Facts really aren't on the side of those who want to blame liberal policies for increases in crime rates, because those policies were enacted at the same time as a substantial multi-year drop in crime since the 1990s. The only way you can get there is a result of bias, which motivates cherry-picking and ignoring well over 20 years of data.

1 --- read what I typed again... did my sentence say crime rate or did it say 'violent' crime rate? I will help you out it said violent crime rate.. which you just repeated. do you need glasses?
2 --- San Antonio does -not- have the same violent crime rate (note I typed violent again just in case you get confused again) Houston does have about the same actually a little higher. I wouldn't live there.
3 --- I don't know if Detroi'ts rate is falling. didn't look. so I will do so now... ahh here we go this might shed some light on to it.
"The homicide rate in 2014, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's population estimate of 688,701 for 2013, was roughly 44 homicides per 100,000. That is considerably higher than in 1967, when, according to a Free Press analysis, the city had a population of more than 1.5 million and a homicide rate of 18 per 100,000 residents."
Other violent crimes are following the same pattern. So apparently no one wants to live in Detroit and has been leaving over the years and the population is less than half of what it once was... but the crime 'rate' has not gone down over the long term.
now shorter term.. say from 2010 forward murder rate slightly down. Rape rate up sharply. Assaults slightly down. Arson up. looks like a wash.
Looking

Don't ask me what I understand about statistics.. well go ahead if you want but its pointless. Crime has fallen in general nationwide..
The whole point I was making which is the point of significance is the cities who enact the strictest gun laws always seem to be among the worst violent crime rate cities. and that remains true despite your shuffling and literary gymnastics to try and divert this to something else.

 

[TurtleDude]

How very astonishing :roll:



Gun Humpers love to have their cake and eat it too.......

http://www.debatepolitics.com/gun-c...ed-residents-send-murder-rate-plummeting.html

suggestion-if you are going to deny that your really motivation for supporting gun laws that are directed at legal gun owners is to harass lawful gun owners, its a good idea not to show such patent hatred for such people.

the fact is-gun control-and I define that as laws that impede, delay or prevent people who normally can legally own guns from obtaining more or certain types of guns or ammunition-has never been proven to decrease violent crime

all gun control has been proven to do is to impede or harass honest citizens. which of course is why its so popular with those who don't like the political lean of many gun owners. guns in the hands of honest people rarely cause problems

so when guns in the hands of honest people increase-crime almost never does

 

[Eric7216]

Nope

I never blamed Republicans, you assumed

You really didn't get the intent of my post at all did you?

I suggest you read thru the entire thread before making an ass out of your self

Go back to school. I do not have the time to educate you

Well, if I did not get your intent perhaps it was due to your writing.
Have you been treated for PTSD?

 

[yankintx]

Well, if I did not get your intent perhaps it was due to your writing.
Have you been treated for PTSD?

That is none of your concern, or business.

Oh, and everyone else seemed to understand but you, but of course the problem is with your comprehension.

Later

 

[katzgar]

What it is is classic head in the sand foolishness, honestly.. a stronger word that foolishness is appropriate.. for some to someone to argue that it doesn't exist when the facts are right in front of the... like you just did.

more faking reality by right wingers

 

[Glen Contrarian]

A recent study by the Brennan Center for Justice shows that more than half of all of the murder increases in the United States were centered in just three cities: Baltimore, Maryland; Chicago, Illinois; and Washington, D.C. That’s an incredible statistic when you stop and think about it. Over half of U.S. murder increases came from just three cities.
Chuck Baldwin -- Half Of 2015 Murder Increases Came From Three Cities

And so anyone with an understanding of statistics would readily grasp that that would make those three cities statistical outliers that skewed the overall rate. Why? Because if it was only three cities that had such an outsized influence, that strongly implies that the other several dozen large cities - from LA to NYC, from Dallas to Miami, from SF to Boston and almost all the big cities in between - did NOT have a significant increase in homicide rates.

So...thank you for showing that no, the big blue cities are not going to hell in a handbasket. In fact, the following was found at the end of 2014:

Chicago recorded an all-time high of 504 killings in 2012, but just two years later homicides were down to 392, and the overall crime rate has declined to its lowest rate since 1972. Charlotte, N.C., recorded 42 killings last year, the lowest number since Mecklenburg County began keeping records in 1977.

Philadelphia’s murder rate has declined from 322 in 2012 to 245 this year. Just 19 slayings were recorded in San Jose, the nation’s 11th-largest city, down from 24 the year before. Even crime-plagued Detroit, which has one of the highest murder rates in the country, is improving: The 304 homicides recorded this year are down from 333 in 2013, the lowest rate since 2010 and the second-lowest number since 1967.

In the first half of the year, Phoenix police investigated just 43 homicides, down from 52 in the first half of 2013; final statistics for the Phoenix area haven’t been released yet. Kansas City, Mo., was on pace to reach its lowest rate since 1967, too.

Mid-year statistics in Dallas showed the city on pace to record just half the murders of its peak in 2004. Camden, N.J., has seen the number drop by more than 50 percent since 2012. Murders in Columbus, Ohio, hit a six-year low.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics both collect crime data at the end of each year and issue reports throughout the year. Final statistics for 2014 won’t be available for several months.

But the trend lines are clear: The number of violent crimes has declined since 2006, according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program. The number of violent crimes committed per 100,000 people has been dropping even longer, from a high of 758 in 1991 to 367.9 in 2013. The rate hasn’t topped 500 per 100,000 people since 2001.

So...yeah, Chicago, Baltimore, and DC are statistical outliers...and the overall trend is unmistakably towards less violent crime overall. Thanks!