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France: Effective treatment found!

Rickeroo

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First, the data:

france-cases.jpg

france-deaths.jpg


Given the increased case load and subsequent run on the hospitals, the reduction in deaths from March is quite profound. Obviously, hospitals in France are "effectively treating" Covid with the vast knowledge gained since the start of the pandemic. Literally twice the patients, all gasping for air with Covid, are flooding French hospitals. There's hardly an increase in deaths. French medicine must be quite advanced, right?

France should share these highly effective treatments. Did they make a new ventilator? A new drug combination?

Seriously though - It's come to my attention that most people think the Covid death rate crashed because of "better treatments". Not really: It mutated over the summer.

Spreads easier, but has become less deadly. In France's case - MUCH less deadly. That is, unless their "miracle treatment" is revealed.
 

HennyBogan

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Wait for the experts here, all with zero medical experience, to set you straight!
 

PeteEU

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First, the data:

View attachment 67295616

View attachment 67295617


Given the increased case load and subsequent run on the hospitals, the reduction in deaths from March is quite profound. Obviously, hospitals in France are "effectively treating" Covid with the vast knowledge gained since the start of the pandemic. Literally twice the patients, all gasping for air with Covid, are flooding French hospitals. There's hardly an increase in deaths. French medicine must be quite advanced, right?

France should share these highly effective treatments. Did they make a new ventilator? A new drug combination?

Seriously though - It's come to my attention that most people think the Covid death rate crashed because of "better treatments". Not really: It mutated over the summer.

Spreads easier, but has become less deadly. In France's case - MUCH less deadly. That is, unless their "miracle treatment" is revealed.

No.. The average age of the infected at the start was over 70 years old. Now it is in the mid 30s. That is why there are fewer deaths.. for now. Give it a couple of weeks and the death numbers will climb as the young people are infecting their parents and grandparents who are now hitting the hospitals ICUs.
 

snakestretcher

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No.. The average age of the infected at the start was over 70 years old. Now it is in the mid 30s. That is why there are fewer deaths.. for now. Give it a couple of weeks and the death numbers will climb as the young people are infecting their parents and grandparents who are now hitting the hospitals ICUs.

Yes, we're expecting a similar rise because universities, colleges and schools are back, and trying to keep youngsters from mingling is about as productive as herding cats. On another point, anyone dismissing UHC as ineffective (as conservatives are prone to do), should take note of how well, relatively, Europe with most countries enjoying UHC, has fared in comparison to the US-although in America's case there are other factors to consider. Libertarians for one...
 

PeteEU

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Yes, we're expecting a similar rise because universities, colleges and schools are back, and trying to keep youngsters from mingling is about as productive as herding cats. On another point, anyone dismissing UHC as ineffective (as conservatives are prone to do), should take note of how well, relatively, Europe with most countries enjoying UHC, has fared in comparison to the US-although in America's case there are other factors to consider. Libertarians for one...

Actually the initial spread to places like Florida and Texas might be related to college kids returning from the northeast lock down.

As for UHC effectiveness.. it varies from country to country, and how bad the spread is. Take Spain, here the system basically collapsed in Madrid and they had to set up extra emergency hospitals in stadiums and stuff, but in my area we barely broke 50% occupancy.
 

snakestretcher

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Actually the initial spread to places like Florida and Texas might be related to college kids returning from the northeast lock down.

As for UHC effectiveness.. it varies from country to country, and how bad the spread is. Take Spain, here the system basically collapsed in Madrid and they had to set up extra emergency hospitals in stadiums and stuff, but in my area we barely broke 50% occupancy.

Yes, I agree generalising is difficult and fraught with issues. For example here in South West England, largely rural and much less-densely populated, we have barely been touched and our rates of death and infection are thankfully insignificant in comparison with the rest of the UK. Just 300 miles to the North West and the picture is very different in, say, the Manchester conurbation and satellite towns, (e.g Bolton, Stockport, Bury).
 
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Peter

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There's no miracle cure. There are 9 vaccines in Phase 3 testing right now, and even more vaccines in Phase 1 and Phase 2. Impossible to say when a vaccine is ready to be used, we'll just have to wait while testing commences.

Covid vaccine tracker: when will a coronavirus vaccine be ready? | World news | The Guardian

It's been widely reported that the UK has made huge deals with various companies for vaccines as we have no idea which will work at the moment.
Hopefully, it'll be something developed in the UK so we can get manufacturing started asap but at the moment nobody knows which vaccine will work so good luck everyone.
 

joluoto

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It's been widely reported that the UK has made huge deals with various companies for vaccines as we have no idea which will work at the moment.
Hopefully, it'll be something developed in the UK so we can get manufacturing started asap but at the moment nobody knows which vaccine will work so good luck everyone.

Yeah, many EU countries are planning to both buy vaccines on their own and participate in EU's mass vaccine purchase scheme, that way they'd both have their own stock and access to EU's stock, which I guess makes sense. But at this point it's impossible to know where and when a vaccine that works will be ready, so everyone is just waiting.
 

Acadia

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No.. The average age of the infected at the start was over 70 years old. Now it is in the mid 30s. That is why there are fewer deaths.. for now. Give it a couple of weeks and the death numbers will climb as the young people are infecting their parents and grandparents who are now hitting the hospitals ICUs.

We thought that would happen after the "protests" poured into the streets. It didn't. It's been months.
 

PeteEU

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We thought that would happen after the "protests" poured into the streets. It didn't. It's been months.

There is a clear difference between indoor and outdoor spread.

Things like protests where a huge majority of people wore masks, the spread was minimal. This has been backed up by similar events in Europe. We also have confirmation from everywhere, where people go on with their daily lives, wear a mask and the chance of spread is minimal.

Things like indoor concerts, night clubs, political events and so on, where masks were either ignored and social distancing was not observed was and are mass spreaders of Covid. We first got it confirmed in South Korea early in the pandemic, when the main source of spread in the country was linked to an Evangelical Church that ignored government guidelines. We saw this repeat in Europe at other Evangelical Churches in France and Germany. We also saw outbreaks at slaughter and packing houses.. all this early in the pandemic.

Now days in Europe, most spread is linked to indoor companies, private parties (especially this), night clubs (which have now been mostly closed) and in some cases bars where people dont follow protocol. We have had quite a few outbreaks in companies, from slaughter houses to office environments, but they are almost always linked to a private party or event. All are indoors with close quarter interaction and minimal precautions in place. One of the biggest spreaders near me was a funeral, where over 200 attended and half got infected. Yes you were not allowed to have that many at a funeral and it was all indoors.

It does happen that outdoor events/parties/get together spread the virus, but that is mostly linked to sharing of items.. drinks, food and so on, rather than direct transmission between people... or so it seems. That is one of the problems in Spain, where young people have a tradition of buying big bottles (1 to 2 liters) of beer and sharing at "impromptu" get togethers in random often remote areas... to avoid parents and the authorities. They get infected, bring it home and later in the week the family holds a birthday or Sunday lunch and suddenly 20+ people are infected with Grandmother and Grandfather being admitted to the ICU a week later.

I predict we will see spread in the US from political rallies (aka Trump rallies) held indoors, but with less chance (relatively speaking) when held outdoors. Masks work, and if people refuse to wear masks and socially distance, then the virus will spread and keep spreading and killing. We have already seen this at one rally, where it took the life of Herman Cain. Now of course one could argue that he did not get it there, since we cant confirm he did, but the odds are pretty good that he did. And then there was Sturgess?! (spelling), where over 100k infections have been possible linked and thousands of infections have been confirmed linked.

This crap will continue to spread in waves for a long time, much like the flu. Sadly it is much deadlier and we will have to live with it until an effective vaccine is found.
 

Higgins86

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We thought that would happen after the "protests" poured into the streets. It didn't. It's been months.

Winter has and remains the biggest worry and when we will see a huge uptick in deaths. Colder weather means people tend to stay in more enclosed indoor spaces.
 

Visbek

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Given the increased case load and subsequent run on the hospitals, the reduction in deaths from March is quite profound. Obviously, hospitals in France are "effectively treating" Covid with the vast knowledge gained since the start of the pandemic.
Yes, actually, that is part of the reason why death rates are lower in France and elsewhere. Doctors have in fact found some treatments that prevent the worst outcomes, such as delaying intubation and using steroids. And yes, actual medical professionals should (and do) learn from each other.
Lessons learned from COVID frontline: A Paris hospital refines ICU treatment

Another is, as already mentioned, that the virus is spreading in much younger cohorts. That means fewer deaths.

Another factor here, which you forgot to mention, is that it's not "either COVID kills you, or you're 100% fine." Severe cases of COVID-19 can cause cardiac issues, respiratory problems, stroke, fatigue, and have other long-term effects. Since hospitalization rates in France are soaring, it is not rational to conclude that "the virus is less severe."


It's come to my attention that most people think the Covid death rate crashed because of "better treatments". Not really: It mutated over the summer.
sigh

I've got a great plan. Instead of listening to the guy who predicted that this would be over and out in April, let's listen to actual scientists. They already know that the D614G is currently the dominant strain, and spreads faster than many earlier strains. However, they also point out that the outcomes have the same level of severity. The D614G strain just has a higher density of spike proteins.
Researchers Identify An Infectious Mutation Of COVID-19
 

Drawdown

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My city's total cases is approaching 800, but among the dead, over half were in their 80's a third in their 70's. The vast majority of all the deaths have been nursing home patients. There is a lag in the reporting. One nursing home reported yesterday that it has had 20 covid deaths but 22 is the total number of deaths for the city officially so the numbers will rise drastically in the next couple weeks. 2/3rd of deaths have been women which is consistent with older population as women outlive men.
 

Rickeroo

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No.. The average age of the infected at the start was over 70 years old. Now it is in the mid 30s. That is why there are fewer deaths.. for now. Give it a couple of weeks and the death numbers will climb as the young people are infecting their parents and grandparents who are now hitting the hospitals ICUs.

More realistic would be the people who happen to test positive are now in their mid 30's. The young had every opportunity to get infected in March / April as they went to school and bars.
 
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