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Florence's Records Should Be Noted

We shall see. I have put my view to the test.

Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

Oh, it's definitely getting colder where I live, and that comment I can prove with years of daily temperature records I have kept in journals - being a avid gardener is easier if you know what to expect. I learned that I could no longer grow the sweet corn my family preferred to eat- it didn't mature in the time it was given, so when it's corn-on-the-cob time, I buy it from an Amish farmer in Southern Ohio, which also includes the dozens of ears I pressure can for Winter eating, which means it has to be cut from the cob - usually a 2-day job to finish all the quarts I expect to have when I'm done with that drudgery.

Drudgery meaning: Dull, Irksome and Fatiguing - which says it all! :lamo
 
Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

Oh, it's definitely getting colder where I live, and that comment I can prove with years of daily temperature records I have kept in journals - being a avid gardener is easier if you know what to expect. I learned that I could no longer grow the sweet corn my family preferred to eat- it didn't mature in the time it was given, so when it's corn-on-the-cob time, I buy it from an Amish farmer in Southern Ohio, which also includes the dozens of ears I pressure can for Winter eating, which means it has to be cut from the cob - usually a 2-day job to finish all the quarts I expect to have when I'm done with that drudgery.

Drudgery meaning: Dull, Irksome and Fatiguing - which says it all! :lamo

Greetings, Polgara.:2wave:

Keep recording those temps! Have you ever thought of writing a journal of your gardening?
Mrs. Hays and I are traveling in the midwest for the next two weeks. Indiana & Illinois; I'll check on the sweet corn.
 
It's so simple it's not happening.

You're not educated in the Sciences. It's happening. The models currently show a 2-3% increase in water retention capability. As an example, A 24-hour storm can last another 30 minutes. This could be enough to flood another neighborhood. And in 10 years, the 2-3% will become 4-5%. And this doesn't even factor-in the higher temperature of the ocean, and the rising sea level storm surges.
 
You must not believe that we are getting warmer. If you believe we are getting warmer, then more frequent and more intense storms and hurricanes is simple science. Warmer air has the ability to hold more water. In addition, warmer ocean water, fuels hurricanes moreso than cooler water. Thirdly, higher sea levels make storm surges more likely and dangerous.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/08/the-link-between-hurricanes-and-climate-change/

It has been getting warmer since the Laurentide Ice Sheet started melting over 25,000 years ago. It takes some serious global warming to melt a sheet of ice between 1 to 2 miles thick the size of a continent. Lots of campfires by stone age man evidently. We know that the warming cooling of this planet cannot be a natural event that has been going on for billions of years.
 
It's so simple it's not happening.

You're argument is like someone saying that the sun isn't coming up.

See? It's dark. No sun is coming up.
It's getting lighter. You can see that it is.
Nope. Not getting lighter.
Then a small cloud appears on the horizon, and it does momentarily get darker.
See? It's getting darker, not lighter. The sun is not coming up.
The sun is going to come up.
How do you know? It's been lighter than this in the past.
 
Nope, you have simply noted the total rainfall difference between two NC named storms. If (when?) the next NC named storm is not record breaking will that then make you doubt that climate change (warming?) is happening or, better yet, is surely reversing?

There is a reason for all the rain.
Nearly stalled, 'uninvited brute' Florence besieges Carolinas with floodwaters - Chicago Tribune

the hurricane basically stalled on the coast.
which instead of moving through like normal allowed for an unusual amount of rain to fall on the area.

i have seen this happen before it is nothing out of the norm and can happen from time to time.

I think it was elizabeth back in 2005 or 6 stalled off the coast for like 3 or 4 days.

just kept raining. she finally moved on. a weak hurricane but they can and do stall.
 
You're argument is like someone saying that the sun isn't coming up.

See? It's dark. No sun is coming up.
It's getting lighter. You can see that it is.
Nope. Not getting lighter.
Then a small cloud appears on the horizon, and it does momentarily get darker.
See? It's getting darker, not lighter. The sun is not coming up.
The sun is going to come up.
How do you know? It's been lighter than this in the past.

Yes, but the difference with JH is that he will cut and paste dozens of blog posts that definitively define the nighttime lack of darkness and explain why the science telling us that the sun will rise is wrong. And when the sun does rise, he’ll cut and paste lots of blog posts that tell us that the sunshine is only temporary, or it’s not the ‘real’ sun, and darkness is coming very soon.
 
It has been getting warmer since the Laurentide Ice Sheet started melting over 25,000 years ago. It takes some serious global warming to melt a sheet of ice between 1 to 2 miles thick the size of a continent. Lots of campfires by stone age man evidently. We know that the warming cooling of this planet cannot be a natural event that has been going on for billions of years.

Much more accelerated since the 1980s, and tracking atmospheric CO2, just like the overwhelming majority of Climatologists have warned.
Climate_Central_CO2_Temp.webp
 
It has been getting warmer since the Laurentide Ice Sheet started melting over 25,000 years ago.
You're missing a few millennia. It stopped warming around 10,000 years ago, and started gradually cooling, about 5,000 years ago. Then, around 1750, temperatures started shooting up.


If you are looking at the charts with very long timescales (e.g. 1 million years), you won't be able to distinguish those relatively short changes.


It takes some serious global warming to melt a sheet of ice between 1 to 2 miles thick the size of a continent.
It does. However, we should note that in terms of global averages, the last Ice Age was around 3°C, and took around 6000 years. FYI, global temperatures increased approximately 0.7°C to 0.9°C since 1901.


Lots of campfires by stone age man evidently. We know that the warming cooling of this planet cannot be a natural event that has been going on for billions of years.
As a matter of fact, we do know that the current warming is overwhelming the numerous natural cycles. We know that temperature are rising very fast, compared to past periods; we know that greenhouse gas concentrations are as high as they've been in nearly 1 million years; we know that land surface temperatures are at their highest point in the past 125,000 years, and are still rising.... the evidence really is overwhelming.
 
You're missing a few millennia. It stopped warming around 10,000 years ago, and started gradually cooling, about 5,000 years ago. Then, around 1750, temperatures started shooting up.



If you are looking at the charts with very long timescales (e.g. 1 million years), you won't be able to distinguish those relatively short changes.



It does. However, we should note that in terms of global averages, the last Ice Age was around 3°C, and took around 6000 years. FYI, global temperatures increased approximately 0.7°C to 0.9°C since 1901.



As a matter of fact, we do know that the current warming is overwhelming the numerous natural cycles. We know that temperature are rising very fast, compared to past periods; we know that greenhouse gas concentrations are as high as they've been in nearly 1 million years; we know that land surface temperatures are at their highest point in the past 125,000 years, and are still rising.... the evidence really is overwhelming.

The problem is past records don't apply today. Continents have drifted. The moon has moved further away. Ocean currents have changed. In order for past climate changes to be relevant today we need the same variables today as we had in the past. But all the variables have changed. Plus we don't even know all the variables. Then you have all the wild cards that have been thrown into the game such as super volcanoes, asteroid strikes, comet strikes, you have the earths wobble etc.. Change all the variables around and what happened in the past is not what is going to happen today.
 
The problem is past records don't apply today. Continents have drifted. The moon has moved further away. Ocean currents have changed. In order for past climate changes to be relevant today we need the same variables today as we had in the past. But all the variables have changed. Plus we don't even know all the variables. Then you have all the wild cards that have been thrown into the game such as super volcanoes, asteroid strikes, comet strikes, you have the earths wobble etc.. Change all the variables around and what happened in the past is not what is going to happen today.

But we know one big variable.

And we are pumping gigatons of it into the atmosphere, and we know that’s bad.... now imagine the unknown variables that might make it even worse.
 
But we know one big variable.

And we are pumping gigatons of it into the atmosphere, and we know that’s bad.... now imagine the unknown variables that might make it even worse.

We need to find another solution because the CO2 is in the air and we do not have the resources to stop using fossil fuels. Look at Puerto Rico. It has been a year and they are still waiting for someone to fix their problems. We have too may people who cannot help themselves let alone solve global warming.
 
The problem is past records don't apply today.
Wait, what? A day or so ago, you were complaining that breaking records doesn't matter, because we supposedly didn't have enough information about the past. Now you're saying that past records don't apply? Which is it?

Anyway....

Continental drift happens on the scales of hundreds of millions of years; if that has any effect on proxy temperatures, that's almost certainly accounted for in the calculations.

The moon's orbit changes by 3.8cm per year; after 1 million years, that's a 0.01% change. Aside from the fact that probably doesn't have a noticeable impact on tides, tides do not change GHG ppm or global temperatures by any significant account.

Climate scientists have modeled ocean currents for decades.


In order for past climate changes to be relevant today we need the same variables today as we had in the past.
Actually, we don't.

First of all, climate scientists already look at the past to develop and/or confirm ideas about the likely effects of changes in the climate, the effects of natural cycles, the impacts of greenhouse gases, and more. The "variables" do not need to be exactly the same in order for knowledge of earlier periods to be beneficial to our understanding of climate change.

Second, climate scientists have spent decades developing climate change models, including using techniques like hindcasting (using conditions from earlier periods in time, running them through the models, and comparing the projections to actual results). Needless to say, they can adjust variables as required, and often run a variety of scenarios, as the biggest variable right now is probably "how much GHGs will humans dump into the atmosphere over the next 10, 20, 50 years."

Third, these ambiguous "variables" don't all need to be the same between past and present for us to understand and observe the causes of climate change. For example, lab and field experiments confirm that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and help us estimate the impact of doubling CO2, as well as the feedback effects that is likely to cause. Analysis of the past is certainly beneficial, but it's definitely not the only tool at our disposal.


Then you have all the wild cards that have been thrown into the game such as super volcanoes, asteroid strikes, comet strikes, you have the earths wobble etc.. Change all the variables around and what happened in the past is not what is going to happen today.
You are correct that since 1750, the climate has not been changed significantly by volcanoes, asteroid strikes, or major solar changes. You are incorrect if you imagine we have no clue whatsoever what those types of events do to the climate. There is a lot of uncertainty, to be sure -- even something like the height of a volcanic plume can change its impact. However, we can say with a good degree of certainty that global temperatures are soaring at rates that are significantly higher than in the past, possibly by an entire order of magnitude.

We also know that what is happening in the present didn't happen in the past, because in the past humans weren't dumping 9 gigatons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere (among other greenhouse gases).

Sorry, but vague invocations about "variables" do not disprove everything we know about climate change.
 
We need to find another solution because the CO2 is in the air and we do not have the resources to stop using fossil fuels.
Actually, we do. Not completely, but we can dramatically cut back on GHG emissions.

• Conservation is one option, and one that saves money. This can be done by pushing fuel efficiency standards; by requiring new buildings to be energy efficient; there's a lot that consumers can do as well.

• Obviously, we can invest a lot more into renewable technology, including energy storage technology.

• Carbon taxes are probably the most efficient way to reduce emissions. It's simple, it incentivizes reduction. Carbon trading schemes might seem better, but they're much more complex.

• Dramatically reduce deforestation. Trees trap carbon; burning them releases it.

• The US should actually start taking international climate agreements seriously.

That's just off the top of my head. There is a lot we can do.


Look at Puerto Rico. It has been a year and they are still waiting for someone to fix their problems. We have too may people who cannot help themselves let alone solve global warming.
Huh?

Puerto Rico is not a state, and it's not a nation. It's a colony of the US, and it's been hamstrung by a federal government that doesn't give a crap about a state that has no federal representation.

At any rate, Puerto Rico's condition has pretty much nothing to do with our ability to reduce emissions.
 
It has been getting warmer since the Laurentide Ice Sheet started melting over 25,000 years ago. It takes some serious global warming to melt a sheet of ice between 1 to 2 miles thick the size of a continent. Lots of campfires by stone age man evidently. We know that the warming cooling of this planet cannot be a natural event that has been going on for billions of years.

Just because climate can change on its own does not mean humanity cannot effect it as well.
 
You're not educated in the Sciences. It's happening. The models currently show a 2-3% increase in water retention capability. As an example, A 24-hour storm can last another 30 minutes. This could be enough to flood another neighborhood. And in 10 years, the 2-3% will become 4-5%. And this doesn't even factor-in the higher temperature of the ocean, and the rising sea level storm surges.

The actual data have been posted several times. There has been no increase in strength or frequency.
 
You're argument is like someone saying that the sun isn't coming up.

See? It's dark. No sun is coming up.
It's getting lighter. You can see that it is.
Nope. Not getting lighter.
Then a small cloud appears on the horizon, and it does momentarily get darker.
See? It's getting darker, not lighter. The sun is not coming up.
The sun is going to come up.
How do you know? It's been lighter than this in the past.

The actual data have been posted several times. There has been no increase in strength or frequency.
 
or global temperatures?


[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[h=1]The Washington Post’s Slander on Hurricanes and Climate Change[/h][FONT=&quot]By James D. Agresti The Washington Post editorial board has accused President Trump of being “complicit” in Hurricane Florence, because “he plays down humans’ role in increasing the risks” of “extreme weather,” and “he continues to dismantle efforts to address those risks.” Such weather, they say, is fueled by manmade global warming that creates “unusually…
[/FONT]

7 days ago September 16, 2018 in Climate News.

Contrary to the Post and other media outlets, cyclones and hurricanes have not become more common or intense. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2012: “There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.” This also applies to hurricanes, which are tropical cyclones with winds exceeding 73 miles per hour.
Likewise, the datasets graphed below show that the global number and intensity of cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes have been roughly level for the past four-to-five decades. These data were originally published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2011 and updated this year:



Records of Atlantic hurricanes—which stretch back for more than a century—also show stagnant trends. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory recently assessed these data and concluded that “the historical Atlantic hurricane record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”
Similarly, the IPCC reported in 2013: “No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.”
 
Anthony Watts


A website called Oil Price recently conducted an interview with climate contrarian Anthony Watts. In the interview, Watts tries to portray himself as the reasonable skeptic in the middle of the climate 'debate'. Watts claims that he's a "lukewarmer" (a term which frankly just refers to people who ignore inconvenient evidence), trying to position himself between the denialists and the climate scientists.

However, as Richard Alley has explained, in reality climate scientists are the reasonable skeptics in the middle, with denialists at one extreme and doomsayers at the other. The sheer number of myths Watts manages to jam in his Oil Price interview confirms Alley's view. In fact, the interview offers us a case study in the tactics climate denialists use to misinform the public.

Watt about four key charts?

I don’t look at Anthony Watts’s blog, Watts Up With That (WUWT), very often, but I glanced at it today and noticed a guest post called four key charts for a climate change skeptic. Anthony Watts’s pre-amble says

Skeptics often get asked to show why they thinks climate change isn’t a crisis, and why we should not be alarmed about it. These four graphs from Michael David White are handy to use for such a purpose.

However, the rather amazing thing about the post (okay, maybe not that amazing) is that each one of the four key charts is deceptive and misleading.

Sorry, but I don't think Anthony Watts is a credible source.
 
Anthony Watts




Watt about four key charts?



Sorry, but I don't think Anthony Watts is a credible source.

Personally, I think Watts is vastly more credible than most AGW advocates, but that need not concern us. Even if you distrust Watts, you should have noticed the datasets and graphs were published in a peer-reviewed journal.

[FONT=&quot]These data were originally published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2011 and updated this year:[/FONT]
 
Personally, I think Watts is vastly more credible than most AGW advocates, but that need not concern us.

b0b88772d8623e5a5043dc6dc88ae5e6.jpg
 
Personally, I think Watts is vastly more credible than most AGW advocates, but that need not concern us. Even if you distrust Watts, you should have noticed the datasets and graphs were published in a peer-reviewed journal.

[FONT="][I]These data were [URL="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL047711/full"]originally published[/URL] in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2011 and updated this year:[/I][/FONT]

His credibility stems entirely from confirmation bias.
 
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