You will need to show your math if you want to blame the Rescue Plan for inflation.
The multiplier on the rescue plan does, in fact, seem to have been relatively low. A lot of consumers
saved those checks; state and local
government spending rose by less than one percent of G.D.P.
Yet inflation soared anyway. Why? Much, although not all, of the inflation surge seems to reflect disruptions associated with the pandemic. Fear of infection and changes in the way we live caused big shifts in the mix of spending: People spent less money on services and
more on goods, leading to shortages of shipping containers, overstressed port capacity, and so on. These disruptions help explain why inflation rose in many countries, not just in the United States.
But while inflation was confined mainly to a relatively narrow part of the economy at first, consistent with the disruption story, it has gotten broader. And many indicators, like the number of
unfilled job openings, seem to show an economy running hotter than numbers like G.D.P.