Final 538 polls in select states

[BrotherFease]

The big one is Pennsylvania. I wonder why the big difference between RCP and 538.

RCP is using a lot of right-leaning pollsters in their final averages. They are including one right-wing pollster who adds a new variable called "the shy trump voter". They look at whether or not the voter is really voting for Biden or just saying they are voting for it. 538 doesn't really view that pollster as legit.

 

[MTAtech]

Based on these polls and recent trends, I predict the following states for Trump.

Arizona: FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6
Florida: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5
Georgia: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1
Iowa: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4
Michigan: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8
Minnesota: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4
Nevada: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8
New Hampshire: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1
North Carolina: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9
Ohio: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8 RCP average Biden +1.2
Texas: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1
Wisconsin: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2

The big one is Pennsylvania. I wonder why the big difference between RCP and 538. By any standard, Trump has narrowed the gap rapidly. The question is whether he has taken the lead. It's worth noting that any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin will be enough. Michigan has a new poll with Trump in the lead. Polls in Minnesota and Wisconsin are dated. In spite of the 538 average, I would consider all the states to be in play.


89 right now. Trump's first hurdle is Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. He needs all three. If he gets them, it becomes a coin flip.

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What poll has Trump leading in Michigan?
According to your prediction, not only will trump win every state he won in 2016 but will pickup states that he lost. Looking at the numbers, I just don’t see it. Trump won MI, WI and PA, by a hair and Trump is less popular in all three.
Moreover, states that Trump won by large margins are now toss up states, like TX.

 

[Rawley]

He has less than a 10% chance today. Plus, people know him now. So, it's probably a snowball's chance in a barbecue at this point.

My eyes are on the senate.

Your tribe's overconfidence and crushing loss in 2016 led to your unbridled hate for the past four years. It's a bit scary to imagine what your side will unleash when the President is reelected.

 

[beefheart]

This is interesting...and funny.


per
@JohnJHarwood
: Trump's election night party at the White House has been trimmed from 400 people to 250 people.

 

[MTAtech]

Trump lost the suburban "housewives." Mine hates his guts. A few tens of millions like her are enough to sink him in urbanized states like PA.

It all depends upon turnout. The polls are having a hard time digesting millions of new voters. Polls that depend upon likely voters will undercount them.

 

[MTAtech]

This is interesting...and funny.


per
@JohnJHarwood
: Trump's election night party at the White House has been trimmed from 400 people to 250 people.

That reminds me of this:

Private jets line up at Logan as Romney backers arrive in Boston for election night party

Private jets were streaming into Boston’s Logan International Airport Tuesday afternoon, officials there said, as Mitt Romney’s supporters arrived for his post-election party in the Seaport District. Edward Freni, director of aviation for Logan, said an unusually large number of Gulfstream...

www.boston.com

 

[Buckeyes85]

This has already been said before, but you're ignoring some obvious variables here:

1. Both Clinton and Trump had large net-negative approval ratings. Biden is viewed favorably by the public, Trump is not.

2. The three states that went to Trump rather than Clinton, had a large undecided population and Clinton with less than 47% of the vote.

3. Unlike in 2016, Biden leads among independents and senior citizens. Two demographics you don't want to lose.

4. RCP had Clinton at 272 and Trump at 266 in 2016 and a 3% lead in the national polls. In 2020, Biden is at 319 and holds about almost a 7% in the national polls.

5. Covid19 and the economy are working against Trump here.

Nobody is saying Trump "can't win". I think he has a better shot than 89%, but Biden was way too many opportunities to win the electoral college here, as noted in this thread.

Nice post but I think you transposed the numbers when you said "89%" and probably meant the 10-11% chance he is being given.

 

[BrotherFease]

It all depends upon turnout. The polls are having a hard time digesting millions of new voters. Polls that depend upon likely voters will undercount them.

I think many people here don't understand (not you btw) the concept of swing states. These are states which could easily swing in either direction and depends on voter turnout.

In 2016, we saw a large number of people being either undecided or voting for a third party candidate. Clinton had less than 47% of the vote in Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn. Whenever a candidate polls past 49%, the more likely they are to win that state.

 

[BrotherFease]

Nice post but I think you transposed the numbers when you said "89%" and probably meant the 10-11% chance he is being given.

You're correct. I think faster than I type and talk.

Trump has a chance of winning the electoral college. I do not think it's improbable. We will see tonight what happens. Right-wingers are either going to look like the biggest idiots in the world or the smartest kids in the room. It's a feast or famine deal for them. Both RCP and 538 have Biden getting into 300 range. I am playing it conservatively and saying 306 for Biden.

 

[Ethel2]

Based on these polls and recent trends, I predict the following states for Trump.

Arizona: FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6
Florida: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5
Georgia: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1
Iowa: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4
Michigan: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8
Minnesota: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4
Nevada: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8
New Hampshire: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1
North Carolina: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9
Ohio: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8 RCP average Biden +1.2
Texas: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1
Wisconsin: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2

The big one is Pennsylvania. I wonder why the big difference between RCP and 538. By any standard, Trump has narrowed the gap rapidly. The question is whether he has taken the lead. It's worth noting that any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin will be enough. Michigan has a new poll with Trump in the lead. Polls in Minnesota and Wisconsin are dated. In spite of the 538 average, I would consider all the states to be in play.


89 right now. Trump's first hurdle is Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. He needs all three. If he gets them, it becomes a coin flip.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Incorrect. Even if he gets all three, which he might, he needs one from WI, MI, and PA.
He will win none of those.

 

[Ethel2]

You're correct. I think faster than I type and talk.

Trump has a chance of winning the electoral college. I do not think it's improbable. We will see tonight what happens. Right-wingers are either going to look like the biggest idiots in the world or the smartest kids in the room. It's a feast or famine deal for them. Both RCP and 538 have Biden getting into 300 range. I am playing it conservatively and saying 306 for Biden.

I will say this: if the jackass manages to win we are all screwed. Another300-500,000 citizens will likely lose their lives in exchange for his victory. You all know its true.
Is it worth it?

 

[Rawley]

I will say this: if the jackass manages to win we are all screwed. Another300-500,000 citizens will likely lose their lives in exchange for his victory. You all know its true.
Is it worth it?

And magically, if Biden wins, these half a million people will be saved. How do you figure that?

 

[Ethel2]

And magically, if Biden wins, these half a million people will be saved. How do you figure that?

Not all of them obviously. But Biden will listen to the epidemiologists who have the knowledge to give this country the best shot to get control of this virus. Biden said he would work with governors and local officials to mandate masks-a key factor in reducing deaths. He might limit interstate transportation. Point is, he has options and IS WILLING to do what is needed. Your jackass president is all for opening everything up all at once, and as a result hundreds of thousands of Americans will unnecessarily die.
Like I said, I don't get how anyone can vote for a mass murderer like the jackass. You know what he is doing is wrong. Why vote for him?

 

[JasperL]

If your point is that polls don't mean shit. I agree with you. You should spread that message with your friends here sporting erections over them.

We all know polls don't "mean" anything. The help predict outcomes. Spread the word with your friends!!

This year 538 gives Trump a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning. That's a significant chance of winning. If someone gave you 10 handgun rounds, and one was live the others fake, would you load them into your Glock, rack a shell into the chamber, point the gun at your head, and pull the trigger? No of course not. So Trump winning isn't an indictment on polls or 538. If he wins by a landslide that might be...

 

[Man0in3Black]

We all know polls don't "mean" anything. The help predict outcomes. Spread the word with your friends!!

This year 538 gives Trump a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning. That's a significant chance of winning. If someone gave you 10 handgun rounds, and one was live the others fake, would you load them into your Glock, rack a shell into the chamber, point the gun at your head, and pull the trigger? No of course not. So Trump winning isn't an indictment on polls or 538. If he wins by a landslide that might be...

How did you know I had a Glock - you stalking me??

 

[Jay59]

RCP is using a lot of right-leaning pollsters in their final averages. They are including one right-wing pollster who adds a new variable called "the shy trump voter". They look at whether or not the voter is really voting for Biden or just saying they are voting for it. 538 doesn't really view that pollster as legit.

That would make sense and it would also be a good idea. Too many polls are left leaning.

On thing worth considering is that Trump has been drawing a number of non-voters to his rallies. They be missing from the call lists of the pollsters. Whatever the reason, Trump has consistently outperformed his polling.

What poll has Trump leading in Michigan? According to your prediction, not only will trump win every state he won in 2016 but will pickup states that he lost. Looking at the numbers, I just don’t see it. Trump won MI, WI and PA, by a hair and Trump is less popular in all three. Moreover, states that Trump won by large margins are now toss up states, like TX.

Biden's chances in Texas are vanishingly small. The Democrats are hoping for down ballot changes.

I understand that you don't believe Trump will do better than four years ago. You have never been touched by the enthusiasm.

Trump has a chance of winning the electoral college. I do not think it's improbable. We will see tonight what happens. Right-wingers are either going to look like the biggest idiots in the world or the smartest kids in the room. It's a feast or famine deal for them. Both RCP and 538 have Biden getting into 300 range. I am playing it conservatively and saying 306 for Biden.

RCP doesn't. They have it 216 - 125 with 197 still toss up.

Incorrect. Even if he gets all three, which he might, he needs one from WI, MI, and PA. He will win none of those.

Minnesota also works. It looks very good for Trump to win Pennsylvania. There are a couple of 269-269 scenarios, where Trump wins none of them

I will say this: if the jackass manages to win we are all screwed. Another300-500,000 citizens will likely lose their lives in exchange for his victory. You all know its true. Is it worth it?

Only an unthinking partisan thinks that 300,000 more people will die of COVID, much less 500K. Engage cranial matter and resubmit.

And magically, if Biden wins, these half a million people will be saved. How do you figure that?

That's the cult-think. Orange Man Bad.

We all know polls don't "mean" anything. The help predict outcomes. Spread the word with your friends!!

This year 538 gives Trump a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning. That's a significant chance of winning. If someone gave you 10 handgun rounds, and one was live the others fake, would you load them into your Glock, rack a shell into the chamber, point the gun at your head, and pull the trigger? No of course not. So Trump winning isn't an indictment on polls or 538. If he wins by a landslide that might be...

Pennsylvania alone swings 538 into Trump favored 60-38. Pennsylvania is Biden's Florida.

 

[Rawley]

We all know polls don't "mean" anything. The help predict outcomes. Spread the word with your friends!!

This year 538 gives Trump a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning. That's a significant chance of winning. If someone gave you 10 handgun rounds, and one was live the others fake, would you load them into your Glock, rack a shell into the chamber, point the gun at your head, and pull the trigger? No of course not.

A rather bizarre analogy. But whatever.

So Trump winning isn't an indictment on polls or 538. If he wins by a landslide that might be...

It is unquestionably an indictment on polls and 538. After 2016, it's hard to believe anyone has any faith in any Presidential polling. Particularly in this unprecedented election.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

That's the cult-think. Orange Man Bad.

He is bad.

You think someone who is okay with kidnapping children from their parents is a good man?

You think someone intent on preventing the supporters of his political opponent from voting is a good man?

You think someone who cheats on his wife with a pornstar is a good man?

You think someone who commits campaign finance crimes is a good man?

You think someone who screws over his subcontractors is a good man?

You think someone who stiffs his lenders is a good man?

You think someone who obstructs justice is a good man?

You think someone who attempts to coerce a foreign government into helping him win a re-election is a good man?

You think someone who downplays the dangers of Covid-19, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans, in order to increase his chances of being re-elected is a good man?

Who is the one in a cult? I don't think it's Trump critics.

 

[JasperL]

A rather bizarre analogy. But whatever.

It is unquestionably an indictment on polls and 538. After 2016, it's hard to believe anyone has any faith in any Presidential polling. Particularly in this unprecedented election.

Only because you don't understand what polls do, or how odds work. I have a feeling if this was a football game and the bookies said Team Biden was favored by 17 points or something, you'd understand that the odds makers are NOT suggesting Team Trump has no chance of winning. Furthermore, if Team Trump did win, no one would be saying from now on forever and ever we should ignore the bookies and the odds if we want an idea of the team most likely to win. That would be stupid. Nothing different is going on here...

 

[Rawley]

[

Only because you don't understand what polls do, or how odds work.

Really? "You stoopid" is your best argument?

 

[W_Heisenberg]

Biden's chances in Texas are vanishingly small. The Democrats are hoping for down ballot changes.

Texas already smashed the 2016 total turnout. Surveys indicate huge turnout amongst asians, blacks, latinos, and college-educated whites, and young voters. These aren't enthusiastic Trump supporters. These are enthusiastic Biden supporters voting in huge numbers.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

Really? "You stoopid" is your best argument?

"I don't need no stinkin' education" isn't really a good counter-argument.

 

[JasperL]

Really? "You stoopid" is your best argument?

I didn't call you stupid, but you don't understand what polls do or how odds work if you think an election like 2016 with Trump given a roughly 28% chance of winning means the polls failed because Trump won the EC and lost the popular vote, in an incredibly close election decided by less than 100k voters (0.083% or so of total votes) in a few states out of more than 120,000,000 cast. The odds say he'd win 28 of every 100 elections with those polling results, not quite one in every three.

What it shows is polls are predictions, and predictions of the future are often wrong. NEWS FLASH!!!!

Again, in 2016, if you were given four shells, one live, three fake, and someone loads a Glock with those 4 shells, were the odds makers saying you have a 25% chance of killing yourself WRONG and WORTHLESS if someone puts the gun to their head, pulls the trigger, and the round fires? Of course not.

 

[Buckeyes85]

You're correct. I think faster than I type and talk.

Trump has a chance of winning the electoral college. I do not think it's improbable. We will see tonight what happens. Right-wingers are either going to look like the biggest idiots in the world or the smartest kids in the room. It's a feast or famine deal for them. Both RCP and 538 have Biden getting into 300 range. I am playing it conservatively and saying 306 for Biden.

I'm playing it conservative too- 500-38.

Joking aside, I do hope the margin is large enough to possibly dissuade Trump from fruitless and divisive post election litigation. But frankly even 500-38 may not be enough for that. I'm going 333-205.

 

[Ethel2]

I didn't call you stupid, but you don't understand what polls do or how odds work if you think an election like 2016 with Trump given a roughly 28% chance of winning means the polls failed because Trump won the EC and lost the popular vote, in an incredibly close election decided by less than 100k voters (0.083% or so of total votes) in a few states out of more than 120,000,000 cast. The odds say he'd win 28 of every 100 elections with those polling results, not quite one in every three.

What it shows is polls are predictions, and predictions of the future are often wrong. NEWS FLASH!!!!

Again, in 2016, if you were given four shells, one live, three fake, and someone loads a Glock with those 4 shells, were the odds makers saying you have a 25% chance of killing yourself WRONG and WORTHLESS if someone puts the gun to their head, pulls the trigger, and the round fires? Of course not.

As Yogi Berra once said, "Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future".