Fewer and Fewer Hurricanes

[Jack Hays]

Warmists always go on (and on) about increased extreme weather brought on by AGW. Well, in the words of Lee Corso: "Not so fast, my friend." It seems that at least one form of extreme weather, hurricanes, has been decreasing. Again, the real world refuses to conform to warmist ideology. This article has many excellent graphics. Here are the first two.

Experts: Hurricane activity at 45 year low, USA major hurricane drought almost a decade


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While climate campaigners hope for a big El Nino this year, and wish for more hurricanes to use for ridiculous “poisoned weather” headlines, the reality is that we are in a hurricane drought, not just in the USA, but globally as well. Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue points out the current situation in one simple and elegant graph which sums up the slump in activity:

He writes on his Twitter feed:

5-year running sum of number of global tropical cyclones (1970-2015)
Stuck at 400 — lowest in this 45-year record.
​

This is backed up by data compiled by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.:
The last few years have certainly been low compared to many previous years, especially 1971. . . .

 

[Deuce]

Of course, along with the hurricane drought we seem to be getting more actual drought.

 

[Josie]

Global warming is the cause of anything that's happening with the climate. Too many hurricanes? Global warming. Not as many hurricanes? Global warming.

 

[WCH]

Global warming is the cause of anything that's happening with the climate. Too many hurricanes? Global warming. Not as many hurricanes? Global warming.

Thus the term *Climate Change

 

[Verax]

Congratulations, you've spiked the football and declared "warmists" to be incorrect about increased hurricane activity. I'm curious though, what scientists declared this to be a thing? Was there a "consensus" about this among the mainstream scientific community? Are the scientists saying the science is settled? I don't remember reading anything about this. Lets take a look around.

So I Googled "global warming increased hurricanes", these are selections from the notable resources us "warmists" often cite.

What is the link between hurricanes and global warming? A warmist site right?

The current research into the effects of climate change on tropical storms demonstrates not only the virtues and transparency of the scientific method at work, but rebuts the frequent suggestion that scientists fit their findings to a pre-determined agenda in support of climate change. In the case of storm frequency, there is no consensus and reputable scientists have two diametrically opposed theories about increasing frequencies of such events.

Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse? Remember that agw cover from NG I posted awhile back and you guys said they were in on the agw conspiracy?

Numerous studies in recent years have found no evidence that the number of hurricanes and their northwest Pacific Ocean cousins, typhoons, is increasing because of the rise in global temperatures. But a new study in the journal Nature found that hurricanes and typhoons have become stronger and longer-lasting over the past 30 years. These upswings correlate with a rise in sea surface temperatures.

RealClimate: Hurricanes and Global Warming – Is There a Connection? Another "warmist" site.

But what about the past? What do the observations of the last century actually show? Some past studies (e.g. Goldenberg et al, 2001) assert that there is no evidence of any long-term increase in statistical measures of tropical Atlantic hurricane activity, despite the ongoing global warming. - See more at: RealClimate: Hurricanes and Global Warming – Is There a Connection?

Funny, nobody is claiming such a thing... well at least reputable sites that stick to the science don't. Now if you read newspaper articles, well then, you'll get a different story.

I guess the moral is you should listen to what the scientists say, not blogs or newspapers.

 

[Tim the plumber]

Congratulations, you've spiked the football and declared "warmists" to be incorrect about increased hurricane activity. I'm curious though, what scientists declared this to be a thing? Was there a "consensus" about this among the mainstream scientific community? Are the scientists saying the science is settled? I don't remember reading anything about this. Lets take a look around.

So I Googled "global warming increased hurricanes", these are selections from the notable resources us "warmists" often cite.

What is the link between hurricanes and global warming? A warmist site right?



Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse? Remember that agw cover from NG I posted awhile back and you guys said they were in on the agw conspiracy?



RealClimate: Hurricanes and Global Warming – Is There a Connection? Another "warmist" site.



Funny, nobody is claiming such a thing... well at least reputable sites that stick to the science don't. Now if you read newspaper articles, well then, you'll get a different story.

I guess the moral is you should listen to what the scientists say, not blogs or newspapers.

Great! So there is not to any increase in hurricanes due to CO2 increases. Good.

So is there any bad side of the AGW thing left at all? I mean since the high end of the predictions is out, this 17 years of not increasing temperatures must have shown that, thus there cannot be any predictions of spectacular sea level rises or any other stuff.

Is there anything at all left to worry about?

 

[jmotivator]

Of course, along with the hurricane drought we seem to be getting more actual drought.

Nope.

 

[jmotivator]

Global warming is the cause of anything that's happening with the climate. Too many hurricanes? Global warming. Not as many hurricanes? Global warming.

... too much prostitution... not enough prostitution.

 

[KLATTU]

Of course, along with the hurricane drought we seem to be getting more actual drought.

"Seem to" ? Are we or are we not. I've already obliterated this talking point on another thread. Did you not read it?

 

[KLATTU]

Co
Funny, nobody is claiming such a thing... well at least reputable sites that stick to the science don't. Now if you read newspaper articles, well then, you'll get a different story.
pers.

did you just say nobody is claiming a link between global warming and hurricane? No 'reputable sites"
Hurricane peak not unique : Nature News

To be fair , he did hedge his bets, but he makes the link.

Also to be fair-I think you are correct- most have not made the statement that global warming HAS increased hurricanes, only that they will.

 

[Verax]

did you just say nobody is claiming a link between global warming and hurricane? No 'reputable sites"
Hurricane peak not unique : Nature News

To be fair , he did hedge his bets, but he makes the link.

Also to be fair-I think you are correct- most have not made the statement that global warming HAS increased hurricanes, only that they will.

That is for the Atlantic which has seen a pretty significant increase.

However that wasn't the point I was trying to make. I have not seen the scientific community claiming hurricanes are increasing, will definitely increase, or any other such concrete predictions, only that they have speculated on how they may be effected.

It has been proposed that hurricane frequency and intensity could increase from global warming but so far it's hard to say. There is reason to believe their intensity could increase in that extra heat is extra energy which could further fuel them.

 

[American]

Of course, along with the hurricane drought we seem to be getting more actual drought.

So you think more hurricanes is better all around. :lol:

 

[KLATTU]

That is for the Atlantic which has seen a pretty significant increase.

However that wasn't the point I was trying to make. I have not seen the scientific community claiming hurricanes are increasing, will definitely increase, or any other such concrete predictions, only that they have speculated on how they may be effected.

It has been proposed that hurricane frequency and intensity could increase from global warming but so far it's hard to say. There is reason to believe their intensity could increase in that extra heat is extra energy which could further fuel them.

....fair enough.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Of course, along with the hurricane drought we seem to be getting more actual drought.

Actually, I just recently scanned a paper from Hansen, I think from 2004, that suggests that droughts follow patterns of soot emissions. Not CO2.

I'll see if I can find it again.

 

[Jack Hays]

T

However that wasn't the point I was trying to make. I have not seen the scientific community claiming hurricanes are increasing, will definitely increase, or any other such concrete predictions, only that they have speculated on how they may be effected.

It has been proposed that hurricane frequency and intensity could increase from global warming but so far it's hard to say. There is reason to believe their intensity could increase in that extra heat is extra energy which could further fuel them.

1. [h=3]Global Warming and Hurricanes - Geophysical Fluid ...[/h]www.gfdl.noaa.gov/gl...
   
   
   
2. [h=3]Global warming is 'causing more hurricanes' - Climate ...[/h]www.independent.co.uk › ... › Climate Change
   
   
   
   
3. [h=3]Hurricanes and Climate Change | Union of Concerned ...[/h]www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/.../hurric...
   
   
   
   
4. [h=3]Climate Change Impact on Storms | The Nature Conservancy[/h]www.nature.org › ... › Threats and Impacts
   
   
   
   The Nature Conservancy
   
   
   Scientific research indicates that climate change will cause hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense — lasting longer, unleashing stronger winds, ...
   
   
   
   

 

[Verax]

1. [h=3]Global Warming and Hurricanes - Geophysical Fluid ...[/h]www.gfdl.noaa.gov/gl...
   
2. [h=3]Global warming is 'causing more hurricanes' - Climate ...[/h]www.independent.co.uk › ... › Climate Change
   
3. [h=3]Hurricanes and Climate Change | Union of Concerned ...[/h]www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/.../hurric...
   
4. [h=3]Climate Change Impact on Storms | The Nature Conservancy[/h]www.nature.org › ... › Threats and Impacts
   
   The Nature Conservancy
   
   
   Scientific research indicates that climate change will cause hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense — lasting longer, unleashing stronger winds, ...

1. From the link:

It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity.

2. A newspaper, you should know better than that.

3. It talks about intensity and Atlantic hurricane increased frequency. Where does it claim hurricanes are increasing in frequency worldwide? All it does is suggest they could.

4. Dunno what this site is but anyway it says "Climate change will cause storms, hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense". Says nothing about frequency but of increased intensity which there is scientific evidence of.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Actually, I just recently scanned a paper from Hansen, I think from 2004, that suggests that droughts follow patterns of soot emissions. Not CO2.

I'll see if I can find it again.

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2004/2004_Hansen_etal_1.pdf

See figure 1.

The paper itself doesn't say anything about droughts, but since aerosols cause precipitation to occur more readily, maybe the dirtier areas are causing the atmosphere to lose more moisture than normal before it gets over the western river basins.

 

[Jack Hays]

1. From the link:


2. A newspaper, you should know better than that.

3. It talks about intensity and Atlantic hurricane increased frequency. Where does it claim hurricanes are increasing in frequency worldwide? All it does is suggest they could.

4. Dunno what this site is but anyway it says "Climate change will cause storms, hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense". Says nothing about frequency but of increased intensity which there is scientific evidence of.

They're trying their best to give the impression without a clear claim. I don't think there's evidence of increased intensity either.

 

[Earthling]

However that wasn't the point I was trying to make. I have not seen the scientific community claiming hurricanes are increasing, will definitely increase, or any other such concrete predictions, only that they have speculated on how they may be effected[sic].

Speculation is climatology in a nutshell.